Highlighted Works by Mackinder Forum Members

• The Tariff Iceberg: Visible Impacts and Hidden Transformations of Trump’s Trade Policy
  Punit Oza
  Mackinder Forum
  October 1, 2025
  mackinderforum.org
  
  
• Moving Toward Real Peace at the Cambodian-Thai Border
  David Jay Green
  The Phnom Penh Post
  September 27, 2025
  phnompenhpost.com

Weekly Geopolitical Bulletin (Sept 27 – Oct 3, 2025)

Geoeconomics

• South Korea Pushes Back on $350 Billion US Tariff Deal Demand: Seoul is refusing US President Donald Trump’s suggestion that it pay a $350 billion investment upfront as part of a deal to cut tariffs. A top aide insisted such an outlay – which Trump claims would come “upfront” – is fiscally impossible and could trigger a financial crisis in South Korea. The July handshake agreement would lower US tariffs on Korean goods from 25% to 15%, with Seoul pledging investments over time, not in cash. Talks remain deadlocked ahead of next month’s APEC summit in Seoul, where Trump and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung hope to formalize the deal. Seoul’s stance underscores its caution amid US trade pressure, while Trump touts the deal as a major win, claiming “South Korea’s $350 billion” is coming into the US.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Gold Soars to Record High Amid Fiscal Turmoil: Gold prices hit an all-time high as investors flocked to safe-haven assets during the U.S. budget impasse. Futures surged to about $3,895 per ounce by mid-week – up 45% year-to-date – as the government shutdown and trade conflicts stoked economic anxiety. Analysts noted silver also jumped nearly 60% this year in tandem. The rally reflects hedging behavior against inflation and political risk; bullion demand has been bolstered by central bank buying and global tensions. Economists caution, however, that such haven-driven spikes can reverse swiftly if fiscal standoffs resolve and investor sentiment stabilizes.
  apnews.com
  
  
• US Crude Exports Soar on Asian Demand and Refinery Maintenance: Exports of US crude oil hit 4.2 million barrels per day in September – the highest in 19 months – as Asian buyers snapped up cargoes during a seasonal lull in US refining. South Korea’s imports surged to a record 690,000 bpd, and India also ramped up purchases of relatively cheap US barrels. Marking a milestone, Pakistan received its first-ever US crude shipment after a new trade deal, and China is set to resume US oil imports in October following a 7-month pause amid easing trade tensions. Beijing’s agreement to discuss its trade conflict with Washington – including at a planned Trump-Xi meeting – has opened the door for energy trade to rekindle, though analysts warn higher freight costs and prices could still cap Asia-bound flows.
  reuters.com
  
  
• IMF sees mixed global inflation trends amid tariff risks. Reuters reports that the IMF’s latest assessment highlights uneven inflation: while prices are falling in the U.S. and Europe, inflation remains sticky in parts of Africa and Asia. The fund warned that higher trade barriers or new tariffs could reignite inflation by disrupting supply and raising input costs. It urged central banks to remain vigilant and emphasized that countries with weaker macro buffers are especially exposed.
  reuters.com
  
  
• China boosts stimulus as growth momentum falters: Beijing unveiled new stimulus measures worth 500 billion yuan (about $70 billion) to spur infrastructure and innovation projects, in a bid to shore up its cooling economy. The state planner announced the policy-based financing tools will fund initiatives in areas like digital technology, AI, transportation and logistics, reflecting authorities’ growing concern after a sharp slump in investment over the summer. Economists note the move could ultimately leverage several trillion yuan in spending, but caution that high local debt might limit its impact. The stimulus push comes as China’s manufacturing sector remains under pressure – an official survey showed factory activity contracted for a sixth consecutive month in September amid weak domestic demand and U.S. tariff headwinds.
  reuters.com
  
  

Military Developments

• Pentagon Finalizes $24.3 Billion F-35 Fighter Deal: The US Department of Defense and Lockheed Martin agreed on a contract for 296 F-35 stealth fighters, capping two years of negotiations. The deal, covering production Lots 18 and 19, will deliver 148 jets each for the U.S. armed services and allied buyers (like Australia and the Netherlands) starting in 2026. At $24.3 billion, it locks in pricing that largely keeps pace with inflation, according to officials. The F-35 program – often criticized for cost overruns – remains the cornerstone of US and partner air forces’ modernization. Demand has stayed high amid global tensions, although Lockheed’s executives acknowledged that strained US relations under the Trump administration had put the jet “in political crosshairs” for some customers. The contract’s completion provides clarity for industry and allies, ensuring production lines keep running even as advanced upgrades (Block 4 software) face delays.
  breakingdefense.com
  
  
• US-Argentina Bolster Ties with Joint “Tridente” Drills: A platoon of US Navy SEALs will train with Argentine special forces in October as Washington deepens defense cooperation with Argentina’s new far-right leader, President Javier Milei. The exercise – code-named “Tridente” – will run Oct 20–Nov 15 and involve maritime special ops training at bases like Mar del Plata. It comes as President Trump dubs Milei his “favorite president” and the two administrations pursue a “strategic partnership”. Simultaneously, US Defense Secretary (rebranded “Secretary of War”) Pete Hegseth told a gathering of top generals that the Pentagon’s sole mission is “preparing for war and … to win”, reflecting an unusually hawkish posture in US military leadership. The drills – authorized by Milei via decree after Argentina’s Congress balked – underscore Buenos Aires’ pivot toward the US and away from traditional neutrality. They also dovetail with Trump’s deployment of Navy warships in the Caribbean to combat drug cartels, a campaign raising regional tensions with Venezuela. While Argentina hails the exercises as boosting its capabilities and alliances, critics note Milei’s pro-US tilt and Trump’s militarized approach mark a sharp break in Latin America’s defense landscape.
  newsweek.com
  
  
• US Edges Toward Supplying Long-Range Missiles to Ukraine: In a notable policy shift, Washington signaled it is considering giving Ukraine Tomahawk cruise missiles via European intermediaries to bolster Kyiv’s deep-strike ability. Vice President J.D. Vance confirmed the US is reviewing President Zelenskiy’s request to let allies transfer Tomahawks – which can strike 2,500 km – after President Trump had long refused Ukraine any long-range missiles. Frustrated by Russia’s refusal to negotiate, Trump appears more open to Ukraine hitting targets “deep” in Russia, according to his special envoy to Ukraine. Moscow would view Tomahawks in Ukrainian hands as a grave escalation, given they could reach Moscow from Ukrainian territory. No final decision has been made, and any transfer might be done through UK or other allies to avoid direct US provision. The debate highlights growing Western willingness to enhance Ukraine’s firepower as the war grinds on – and a calculated risk by Trump’s team that empowering Kyiv with precision long-range strike capability could pressure Putin without crossing Russia’s red lines.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Chinese PLA Bristles at US-Japan-ROK War Drills: China’s military blasted the expanded trilateral exercises between the US, Japan, and South Korea, warning they have “gone beyond traditional military cooperation” and threaten regional stability. A PLA Academy commentator in the PLA Daily denounced recent joint drills – some integrating cyber and AI – as strategic tools by Washington to “destabilise” the region and encircle China and North Korea. The op-ed, amplified by Hong Kong’s SCMP, noted an uptick in complex multilateral exercises like Ulchi Freedom Shield (US-ROK), Resolute Dragon (US-Japan), and the three-way Freedom Edge drill. Beijing argues the US is overstating “exaggerated regional threats” to justify these drills. U.S. officials maintain the exercises are defensive and enhance interoperability against North Korean missiles and other challenges. But China’s sharp response – including increased PLA air/naval patrols near Taiwan and contested seas – underscores how such drills are feeding into Sino-US rivalry. The issue also complicates Seoul and Tokyo’s balancing act, as they deepen security ties with Washington while managing economic relations with Beijing.
  scmp.com
  
  
• Army Memo Flags Flaws in Trump-Allied Tech System: An internal US Army memo raised alarms about fundamental security flaws in a battlefield network being developed by tech firms Anduril and Palantir, which are led by close Trump allies. The modernized communications system – intended to give front-line units faster, AI-enabled data sharing – is rife with “high risk” cyber vulnerabilities and unstable performance, according to the memo’s assessment. Despite heavy White House backing and fast-tracked contracts for the Silicon Valley companies, Army evaluators warn the system could be too insecure for combat deployment. The report (revealed by Reuters) fuels concerns of cronyism, as the firms’ ties to Trump may have sped their access to lucrative deals without sufficient testing. Anduril and Palantir have promised agile, cheaper tech solutions, but the Army is urging caution and rigorous fixes before fielding the network. Critics say this episode shows the need for independent oversight of defense tech contracts – even as the Pentagon races to incorporate cutting-edge AI and cloud systems into warfighting.
  reuters.com
  
  

Political and Diplomatic Developments

• Hamas Opens Door to Gaza War Ceasefire Plan: The Palestinian militant group Hamas delivered a qualified acceptance of parts of U.S. President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan to halt the war in Gaza. In a statement to mediators, Hamas agreed to key elements – notably releasing all hostages and ceding governance of Gaza to other Palestinian entities – but stressed that thornier issues like disarmament require further negotiation. This measured response came after Trump’s ultimatum giving Hamas until Sunday to accept the U.S.-Israeli proposal aimed at ending the nearly two-year war. While Israel and Washington were initially noncommittal pending Hamas’ full compliance, the U.N. praised the plan as a “window of opportunity” for peace. Regional powers Qatar and Egypt also welcomed the ceasefire framework but called for clarification on political arrangements for post-war Gaza. The diplomatic overture – unprecedented during this conflict – raised cautious hopes of a negotiated resolution if remaining gaps can be bridged.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Historic Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Deal Endorsed: Armenia’s parliament overwhelmingly approved a declaration supporting a US-brokered peace agreement with Azerbaijan, a landmark step to end decades of conflict. The declaration – passed 64–0 (with the opposition boycotting) – reaffirms mutual recognition of each country’s sovereignty and welcomes the initialing of a peace treaty during an August 8 trilateral summit in Washington, D.C. hosted by President Trump. Notably, it references plans to reopen transport links, including a corridor through Armenia connecting mainland Azerbaijan to its Nakhichevan exclave, dubbed the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP)”. The deal envisions a future of open borders and economic cooperation – unimaginable during the 2020 war – and explicitly thanks President Trump for his “undeniable contribution” to peace. While many Armenians remain bitter over territorial losses (Nagorno-Karabakh’s reintegration into Azerbaijan), Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has pivoted firmly to a “peace agenda.” The parliamentary opposition’s walkout shows domestic tensions persist, but internationally this US-mediated accord is being hailed as a diplomatic breakthrough that could transform the South Caucasus.
  massispost.com
  
  
• Armenia Edges Away from Moscow’s Orbit: In a dramatic geopolitical shift, Armenian leaders signaled a break with Russia’s security alliance. Prime Minister Pashinyan told parliament that the Russia-led CSTO’s failure to aid Armenia during Azerbaijan’s attacks has made Armenia “truly independent” – effectively freezing Yerevan’s CSTO ties. Officials openly warned that Armenia may fully withdraw from the CSTO if Moscow doesn’t honor defense promises made after Azerbaijani incursions. (The CSTO pointedly did not intervene when Azerbaijani forces seized Armenian border areas in 2022.) Already, Armenia suspended its CSTO participation in 2024 and stopped paying dues, citing the alliance as a threat to Armenia’s security. Yerevan is instead deepening ties with the EU and US – it hosted unprecedented US-Armenia military exercises this month – underscoring its strategic realignment. The Kremlin has reacted with thinly veiled irritation, warning Armenia against “unfriendly steps.” But Pashinyan, facing public disillusionment with Russia, appears intent on charting a sovereign course. This marks a significant loss of Russian influence in the Caucasus and highlights how last year’s Karabakh crisis strained traditional alliances.
  akipress.com
  
  
• Trump-Xi Meeting Planned as US-China Thaw Emerges: The White House and Beijing have agreed “in principle” for President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping to meet face-to-face in November on the sidelines of a regional summit in Seoul. The prospective summit – their first in person since Trump’s return to office – follows a phone call in which Xi reportedly consented to discuss resolving the US-China trade conflict. Both sides have shown tentative conciliatory moves: China is ending an unofficial ban and will resume imports of US crude oil from October after a 7-month halt (a goodwill gesture tied to the trade detente). Meanwhile, Washington toned down some “decoupling” rhetoric and eased tech export curbs in areas not critical to national security. Still, major disputes remain – from tariffs to technology to Taiwan – so expectations for a breakthrough are tempered. Diplomats on both sides, however, note the symbolic importance of simply restarting high-level dialogue. Trump, who once called Xi a “friend” before trade wars erupted, now seeks to leverage personal diplomacy to ease tensions that have weighed on markets and alliances. If the Trump-Xi meeting proceeds during the APEC summit, it could set the stage for stabilizing the world’s most consequential bilateral relationship, or at least preventing further escalation.
  reuters.com
  
  

Geostrategic Flashpoints

• Russia Launches Mass Strikes Across Ukraine: Russia unleashed one of its largest aerial bombardments of the war on Sept 28, pounding Kyiv and multiple regions with hundreds of exploding drones and missiles. The sustained overnight barrage – lasting over 12 hours – killed at least 4 civilians (including a child) and injured around 80, with blasts ripping through a cardiology clinic in Kyiv and other civilian infrastructure. Ukraine’s air force said it shot down 568 drones and 43 cruise missiles out of an onslaught of 595 and 48 launched, respectively. Nevertheless, debris and missed intercepts caused fires and casualties on the ground. The sheer volume of the attack even prompted neighboring Poland to temporarily close airspace near its border and scramble jets until the “danger had passed”. President Zelenskiy condemned the strikes – among the most intense on Kyiv since 2022 – and again urged Western partners to tighten sanctions on Moscow’s oil revenues that fund the war. Notably, he pointed out that thus far President Trump has resisted Ukraine’s calls for more punitive measures on Russia’s energy exports. The blitz illustrates a brutal strategy by Moscow to batter Ukraine’s cities and energy grid as winter approaches, testing Ukraine’s air defenses and international resolve.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Russian Warships Provoke NATO in Baltic Waters: Denmark’s defense intelligence service reported multiple incidents of Russian naval aggression in strategic Danish straits that link the Baltic and North Seas. On several occasions, Russian warships sailed on collision courses toward Danish vessels, aimed weaponry at Danish patrol helicopters, and jammed navigation systems near the Great Belt and Øresund straits. Copenhagen officials denounced these acts as “hybrid warfare” intended to intimidate and test NATO’s resolve. Such close encounters risk unintended escalation, Danish commanders warned, noting one miscalculation could spark a broader crisis. NATO has quietly bolstered air-policing and naval patrols in the Baltic in response, and Sweden (set to join the alliance) expanded maritime surveillance of critical chokepoints. Russia’s defense ministry denied any hostile intent, dismissing the incidents as routine exercises. However, Western analysts see a pattern of increased Russian probing of allied defenses in the High North and Baltic Sea, underscoring rising tensions on Europe’s northern flank.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Standoff at Sea: Tensions Flare over Scarborough Shoal: The South China Sea saw a spike in tension as China’s coast guard took provocative steps to assert control of the disputed Scarborough Shoal – and the Philippines publicly vowed to stop any Chinese “militarisation” there. During China’s National Day week, the Chinese Coast Guard even held a flag-raising ceremony on a vessel near Scarborough, declaring it would “stand guard” over the reef Beijing seized from Manila in 2012. In Manila, Armed Forces Chief Gen. Romeo Brawner blasted Beijing’s newly declared “marine nature reserve” at Scarborough as a “clear pretext for occupation”, and warned the shoal must not become another Mischief Reef (which China quietly fortified in the 1990s). The Philippine military has increased patrols and says it “will not allow” any Chinese construction on the shoal. The US has backed the Philippines, with officials calling China’s actions “destabilising” and reaffirming the shoal is covered by the US-Philippines defense treaty. So far, the confrontation has been mostly rhetorical and via sea patrol maneuvers – unlike August’s collision incidents – but it underscores how flashpoints in the South China Sea remain powder kegs. Scarborough’s lagoon, rich in fish, is claimed by both nations; a 2016 Hague ruling said China’s blockade is illegal, but Beijing ignored it. With nationalist sentiment running high in both countries, and China’s coast guard growing more assertive, Scarborough continues to test how far Beijing will press its claims and how firmly Washington and Manila will push back.
  reuters.com
  thediplomat.com
  
  
• Taiwan on Guard Ahead of Potential Chinese Drills: Taiwan’s military is on heightened alert around the island’s National Day (Oct 10), warily watching for any show of force from Beijing similar to last year’s post-holiday war games. Defense Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng noted that while there are no specific signs yet of a PLA exercise timed to Taiwan’s celebrations, the armed forces “will closely track and respond accordingly” to any developments. Last October, China’s PLA staged large-scale live-fire drills right after Taiwan’s national day – a “warning” against what Beijing calls Taipei’s “separatist acts”. This year, Taiwan’s new president, Lai Ching-te, is set to give the National Day address and is expected to reiterate Taipei’s stance rejecting Beijing’s sovereignty claims. In the lead-up, Chinese aircraft and ships have maintained near-daily patrols around Taiwan’s air defense zone and waters, keeping up pressure. Taiwan responded by deploying a Sky Bow III air defense battery to frontline Penghu Island as a deterrent – a domestically built SAM comparable to US Patriots. Both Penghu and Taiwan’s outlying islets are reinforced, given they’d be first in line in any PLA operation. While many analysts think Beijing is calibrating its military activities to avoid overt provocation before upcoming US-China talks, Taiwan isn’t letting its guard down. The next week will be a tense one in the Taiwan Strait, as all sides look for any unwelcome “National Day surprise.”
  reuters.com

Terrorism and Conflict

• Bandit Militias Massacre 12 in Nigeria’s Middle Belt: Armed “bandit” gunmen attacked the town of Oke-Ode in Nigeria’s Kwara state, killing at least 12 local forest guards and a community leader in a dawn raid. The assailants stormed a local government office around 7 a.m., opening fire indiscriminately – underscoring the worsening insecurity plaguing north-central and northwest Nigeria. Four other people were wounded in the assault, which police say also claimed the life of Oke-Ode’s traditional chief (indicating the attackers specifically targeted local authorities). Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq condemned the “heinous” attack and urgently requested military reinforcements. In response, Nigeria’s Army deployed troops to Kwara to hunt the perpetrators and bolster security. This massacre is part of a larger trend of escalating bandit violence: roaming criminal gangs have terrorized rural communities with mass kidnappings, killings, and cattle raids, exploiting weak security. States like Zamfara, Katsina, and Niger have seen similar atrocities. Despite some ongoing military operations, the bandits often evade crackdowns by melting into forests or moving across state lines. The Oke-Ode incident highlights that no part of Nigeria’s interior is immune – even Kwara (traditionally calmer) is now suffering spillover. Abuja’s security chiefs face growing pressure to stem the bloodletting, as Nigerians fear the country’s vast ungoverned spaces have become a free-for-all for armed outlaws.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Syria: 70 civilians killed in September, including seven children and three women, per SNHR. A report from the Syrian Network for Human Rights notes 70 civilian deaths last month, three attributed to torture, across government- and opposition-held areas. The fatalities include seven children, highlighting the war’s persistent toll on innocent populations despite lower international attention. The SNHR called for greater accountability and condemned the continued targeting of civilians.
  snhr.org
  
  
• Mosque Bombings in Pakistan Underscore Election Threat: Two suicide bombings struck mosques in Pakistan on Sept. 29, killing at least 57 people as worshippers observed the Prophet Muhammad’s birthday. In southwestern Balochistan province, a bomber blew himself up near a police vehicle guarding a Mawlid procession outside a crowded mosque, killing 52 (including several children) and injuring over 50. Hours later in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, another blast tore through a small mosque during Friday prayers, collapsing the roof and leaving five dead (with dozens more rescued from rubble). No group immediately claimed responsibility, but authorities suspect sectarian militants or the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) aiming to sow chaos ahead of Pakistan’s January general election. The attacks are the deadliest in a surge of terror incidents this year that have increasingly targeted civilians and religious gatherings. Islamabad beefed up security nationwide, particularly in border regions near Afghanistan where militants find haven. With political rallies also ramping up, Pakistan faces the daunting challenge of conducting a national election under the shadow of extremist violence.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Sudan’s Civil War Deepens Humanitarian Catastrophe: The brutal conflict between Sudan’s army (SAF) and the rival Rapid Support Forces (RSF) ground on into its third year with no sign of peace, creating what the U.N. calls the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. This month saw especially grim milestones: an RSF drone strike killed over 70 civilians in El-Fasher, North Darfur – one of the bloodiest single days since the paramilitaries began besieging that city. In western Darfur, landslides triggered by heavy rains reportedly buried over 1,000 people, compounding the misery of war. Over 24.6 million Sudanese (about half the population) now face acute food shortages, and a famine has been declared in parts of Darfur where 260,000 civilians are trapped by RSF blockades. Disease outbreaks of cholera, dengue, and malaria are raging amid the collapse of infrastructure – with thousands of cases in Khartoum’s displacement camps. Diplomatically, international efforts remain stalled: U.N. appeals for a ceasefire have gone unheeded as each side still seeks a battlefield edge. Regional mediators warn that without sustained pressure, Sudan risks becoming a failed state with ripple effects across northeast Africa.
  aljazeera.com
  (Al Jazeera is a global news network financed by the Qatari state).

WMD & Cyberwarfare

• Iran Hints at Extending Missile Reach Amid Nuclear Tensions: A senior Iranian commander declared that Iran will increase the range of its ballistic missiles “to any point deemed necessary,” suggesting Tehran may abandon its self-imposed 2,000 km range cap. Revolutionary Guard Deputy Commander Mohammad Asadi told Fars News on Oct 1 that Western pressure to restrict Iran’s missiles is unacceptable and that Iran’s missiles “will reach the range they need to” for national defense. The timing is striking – coming after Iran’s short, sharp war with Israel in June, when Iranian missiles struck targets in northern Israel and US bases in Qatar before a ceasefire was brokered. Iranian officials tie missile issues to stalled nuclear talks: they view Western missile-curb demands as illegitimate so long as US sanctions persist. Currently, Iran’s longest-range missiles (~2,000 km) can hit Israel or SE Europe, but extending range could threaten Western Europe. US and Israeli intelligence fear Iran ultimately seeks an ICBM capability that, if mated with a nuclear warhead (which Iran insists it’s not developing), would be a global game-changer. Tehran’s statement may also be aimed at leverage – signaling it has leverage to escalate if no sanctions relief or nuclear deal is reached. European diplomats expressed concern that Iran could test a missile beyond 2,000 km or improve accuracy significantly, further destabilizing the Middle East’s security balance. The development puts added urgency on efforts to revive some form of nuclear or regional missile agreement, even as trust between Iran and the West remains near zero.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Hacker Group Claims Theft of 1 Billion Salesforce Records: A cybercriminal outfit calling itself “Scattered LAPSUS$ Hunters” boasted it stole a trove of nearly 1 billion records from cloud software giant Salesforce, in one of the largest apparent data breaches on record. The group told Reuters it did not hack Salesforce directly, but rather breached dozens of the company’s customers via social engineering – impersonating employees to trick IT help desks (a “vishing” attack) and then installing a malicious Data Loader tool. The leaked data purportedly includes names, emails, and other personal info from some 40 firms, including UK retailers Marks & Spencer and Co-op, and automaker Jaguar Land Rover. Salesforce stated it has found no evidence its platform was compromised, suggesting the attackers exploited users’ lax security practices rather than any flaw in Salesforce’s systems. Cybersecurity experts note the LAPSUS$ group (or copycats) previously breached tech giants like Microsoft and Nvidia using similar tactics – targeting human weaknesses over technical ones. British police arrested four young suspects earlier this year related to LAPSUS$ hacks. The incident is a stark reminder that third-party and supply-chain attacks can expose massive troves of data even if core cloud infrastructure remains secure.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Global Ransomware Attacks Surge, Hitting Critical Infrastructure: A new cybersecurity report revealed a 36% spike in ransomware attacks worldwide in 2025, with 5,186 incidents recorded so far – up from 3,810 in the same period last year. Manufacturing, healthcare, and government sectors bore the brunt of the onslaught. One notable case this week: the KillSec hacker group claimed a Sep 8 cyberattack on MedicSolution, a Brazilian hospital software provider, potentially exposing patient data across numerous clinics. Meanwhile in the US, multiple hospital chains and schools grappled with ransomware outages in September, prompting the FBI and CISA to issue a joint alert on new malware strains targeting public infrastructure. The onslaught has been financially devastating – for example, a major Las Vegas hotel-casino confirmed it paid ~$15 million to hackers in a crippling September attack (industry sources). Governments are stepping up responses: the Biden administration convened a ransomware task force with allied nations, and this week INTERPOL launched an initiative to help African countries harden their defenses, as attacks on South Africa and Nigeria have spiked. Cyber insurers report payouts are rising as criminals deploy double extortion tactics – stealing data before encryption to pressure victims. The 2025 trendline suggests ransomware may reach record levels by year’s end, fueling calls for more aggressive international action against ransomware gangs often based in Russia or other safe havens.
  industrialcyber.co