Highlighted Works by Mackinder Forum Members

• Russian Escalation Threats in Its War Against Ukraine
  Michaela Dodge
  NIPP
  October 2025
  mackinderforum.org

• The Line That Holds: How Warsaw and Kyiv Anchor Europe’s Defense
  Joshua B. Spero
  Foreign Analysis
  November 3, 2025
  foreignanalysis.com

• The Specter of Nuclear Anarchy: Rising Risks in a Modern Era
  Dr. Jeffrey D. McCausland
  Mackinder Forum
  November 14, 2025
  mackinderforum.org

Weekly Geopolitical News Bulletin (Nov 15–21, 2025)

Geoeconomics

• U.S. Pushes Global Energy Deals to Counter Russia & Boost Allies: The Trump administration advanced a series of energy agreements to strengthen geopolitical ties. During Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman’s U.S. visit, Saudi Aramco agreed to import U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG), while Washington discussed aiding Saudi Arabia’s civil nuclear program. The U.S. also pledged more liquefied petroleum gas to India and LNG to Ukraine, helping Kyiv amid war-time gas deficits. These deals aim to expand U.S. energy influence, though analysts warn of overextension, noting U.S. export capacity is already near full commitment. Goldman Sachs projects a global LNG glut could depress prices later in the decade, testing the viability of these ambitious arrangements.
  semafor.com
  
  
• China, South Africa Deepen Trade Ties with Zero-Tariff Plan: On the sidelines of the G20 summit in Johannesburg, Chinese Premier Li Qiang met President Cyril Ramaphosa and vowed to safeguard multilateral trade while fast-tracking zero-tariff access for South African goods. Li’s remarks, conveyed via state media Xinhua on November 21, underscore Beijing’s outreach to African partners amid great-power competition. China’s pledge to implement zero-tariff treatment aims to boost South African exports and solidify political goodwill. The gesture aligns with China’s broader strategy of cultivating the Global South and promoting trade as a tool of influence, even as it navigates tensions with Western economies.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Rare Earth Breakthrough Erodes China’s Monopoly: A major Arctic mineral discovery could reshape critical supply chains. Alaska’s Graphite One project near Nome uncovered vast deposits of rare earth elements (REEs) alongside graphite, potentially ending U.S. reliance on China for these strategic materials. China presently produces ~90% of certain REEs vital for high-tech and defense. The new Graphite Creek finds – including neodymium and dysprosium – “portend a step-up” in U.S. capability against the Chinese Communist Party’s mineral stranglehold, a source told Fox News. U.S. dependency on imports for both REEs and graphite exceeded 90% as of 2024. With this deposit dubbed America’s largest, the project is fast-tracked under Trump’s “energy dominance” agenda to fortify U.S. tech and clean-energy sectors
  foxnews.com
  
  
• Argentina’s $20B Bailout in Doubt as Banks Pivot to Smaller Loan: Argentina’s financial lifeline has hit uncertainty. Buenos Aires denied negotiating a widely reported $20 billion rescue package from major U.S. banks after news broke that JPMorgan, Bank of America and Citi shelved such plans. Economy Minister Luis Caputo insisted “we never spoke…about $20 billion,” dismissing the report as misinformation. Instead, bankers are mulling a scaled-down ~$5 billion short-term loan (repo) to bolster Argentina’s reserves. The flap follows a U.S. Treasury $20B currency stabilization deal in October tied to Argentina’s election
  reuters.com
  
  
• Trump Backs Sanctions on Nations Trading with Russia, Triggering Warnings: The U.S. is weighing an unprecedented 500% tariff on countries that buy Russian oil, gas or uranium in a bid to choke off Moscow’s trade. President Trump confirmed Republicans are drafting legislation to punish any nation trading with Russia, explicitly naming Iran. The bipartisan Graham–Blumenthal bill, introduced earlier in 2025, would tariff imports from major buyers like China or India, risking a global trade rift. The Kremlin blasted the proposal as “extremely negative,” vowing to monitor and respond
  english.nv.ua

Military Developments

• France Commits 100 Fighter Jets to Ukraine in Landmark Arms Deal: In Paris, President Emmanuel Macron agreed to provide around 100 Rafale fighter jets to Ukraine over the next decade, marking France’s first transfer of warplanes to Kyiv. The €8+ billion deal – struck during President Volodymyr Zelensky’s European tour – also includes cutting-edge air defense systems, drones and munitions. Macron hailed the package as a “new step” in support of Europe’s “first line of defence”, while Zelensky called it a “substantial increase” in Ukraine’s capabilities
  breitbart.com
  
  
• Russia Poised to Capture Key Ukrainian City as Offensive Grinds Forward: Moscow’s forces are on the verge of seizing Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine, a strategic Donetsk city, after weeks of grinding assaults. Analysts say Russian units have partially encircled Pokrovsk and penetrated its outskirts, with Ukrainian defensive lines thinning to gaps of 600 yards in places. Most observers expect the city to “fall soon”. Ukraine’s army is severely strained – outnumbered 8-to-1 by attacking troops in some sectors and facing manpower and ammunition shortfalls
  russiamatters.org
  
  
• NATO Ally Seeks New Elections Amid Serbia–Kosovo Standoff: Political fallout from a long-simmering conflict: Kosovo’s government collapsed as opposition parties refused to form a coalition, blaming Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s hard line against Serbia for growing isolation. New elections are now due by year’s end – just 10 months after the last – reflecting deep divisions over Kurti’s refusal to grant autonomy to Serb-majority regions and his crackdowns on Belgrade’s influence. Kurti’s stance has chilled EU relations and halted dialogue with Serbia, prompting the three main opposition parties to unite against him. They argue Kurti’s confrontational approach has yielded a “political blockage” that weakens Kosovo’s hand internationally
  efe.com
• Warships for Indonesia: Britain and Indonesia inked a £4 billion ($5.24 billion) maritime defense deal led by UK firm Babcock to build warships for Jakarta. Under the agreement, new vessels will be constructed in Indonesia with British naval expertise – supporting 1,000 UK jobs – as part of a broader security partnership. The deal, announced by London on Nov. 21, underscores growing UK-Indo-Pacific defense ties and Indonesia’s naval modernization drive.
  reuters.com

Political & Diplomatic Developments

• Leaked U.S. Peace Plan for Ukraine Sparks Allied Pushback: A draft Trump administration peace proposal for the Russia-Ukraine war leaked this week, igniting controversy in Kyiv and European capitals. The 28-point U.S. plan demands sweeping concessions: Ukraine would cede all of Donbas and Crimea, accept a neutral buffer zone in Russian-held areas, cap its armed forces at 600,000, and renounce NATO membership. In exchange, Russia would get phased sanctions relief, G8 reinstatement, and U.S.–Russian economic cooperation – effectively codifying many Kremlin gains. European leaders called the terms “punishing” and warned “peace cannot be capitulation”, aligning with President Zelensky’s resistance. Nonetheless, U.S. officials pressed Zelensky to consider the deal by Thanksgiving, even hinting at cutting aid if he refused. The uproar over the leaked plan highlights rifts between Washington’s drive for a settlement and Ukraine’s insistence on not rewarding aggression – a diplomatic schism Putin has eagerly noted while saying the plan could be a “basis” for talks
  russiamatters.org
  reuters.com
  
  
• UN Backs Gaza Peace Plan: The UN Security Council endorsed President Trump’s Gaza peace plan, voting 13–0 (Russia, China abstaining) to authorize an international stabilization force and chart a path toward Palestinian self-rule. The U.S.-drafted resolution, annexing Trump’s 20-point proposal, notably references a “credible pathway” to Palestinian statehood – a compromise to secure Arab states’ support. Hamas rejected the “imposed international guardianship” and vowed not to disarm, while Israel’s government, under Netanyahu, reiterated opposition to any Palestinian state, raising questions about implementation.
  theguardian.com
  
  
• U.S. Pushes Sudan Peace: After meeting Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, President Trump announced the U.S. will work to end Sudan’s civil war, which erupted in 2023 between rival generals. “We’ve already started working on that,” Trump said, crediting MBS’s request and pledging to coordinate with Saudi, UAE, Egypt and others to halt “tremendous atrocities” in Sudan. The surprise U.S. intervention – a shift from prior hands-off policy – comes as Sudan’s conflict threatens regional stability, and follows Trump’s success brokering a Gaza ceasefire last month.
  reuters.com
  
  
• ‘Trump Route’ Corridor Advances Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Effort: U.S. diplomats are quietly brokering a breakthrough transportation corridor through Armenia, part of a broader effort to reconcile Armenia and Azerbaijan after last year’s Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. On Nov. 17, U.S. Under Secretary Allison Hooker met Armenian officials in Yerevan to discuss the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP) – a U.S.-administered road and rail link that would connect Azerbaijan proper with its Nakhichevan exclave via Armenia’s Syunik province. The plan, agreed in principle at an Aug. 8 Washington summit between President Trump, Armenia’s PM Pashinyan and Azerbaijan’s President Aliyev, gives the U.S. a long-term leasing role in managing the corridor. Armenia pledged to ensure “unhindered” transit as part of the deal, effectively acceding to what Baku has sought for decades (a route across southern Armenia) – though with international oversight rather than Azerbaijani control. Domestic reaction in Armenia is mixed: proponents say TRIPP will bring U.S. investment and security guarantees, while critics decry it as an extraterritorial corridor under another name, fearing loss of sovereignty in Syunik. U.S. officials argue the arrangement will boost regional trade and stabilize the Caucasus by reopening Soviet-era routes. The corridor’s details – from customs procedures to security – are still being negotiated, with implementation expected in stages through 2026.
  mirrorspectator.com

Geostrategic Flashpoints

• Black Sea Drama: Russian Drone Strike Ignites Tanker Fire Near NATO Border: A suspected Russian drone attack hit a Turkish-operated LPG tanker unloading at Ukraine’s Izmail port on the Danube, sparking a massive blaze visible from Romania. The November 17 strike – one day after President Zelensky sealed a deal to import U.S. gas via Greece – prompted Romania (a NATO member) to evacuate villages just across the river. All 16 crew escaped, but the burning ship underscored escalating risks to Black Sea trade. It came amid renewed Russian bombardment of Odesa’s energy and port infrastructure. NATO expanded air patrols under its Eastern Sentry plan as these attacks edged dangerously close to Alliance territory. While no breach of Romanian airspace was detected, the incident raised tensions: Bucharest condemned Russia’s “indiscriminate strikes” and analysts warned any spillover could trigger NATO consultations. Zelensky’s government, meanwhile, touted the new U.S. LNG supply route as critical to keep Ukraine’s lights on through winter
  foxnews.com
  
  
• Iran’s Water Crisis Inflames Ethnic Tensions with Azerbaijan: The drying of Lake Urmia in northwestern Iran – once West Asia’s largest salt lake – is fueling unrest among Iran’s large ethnic Azerbaijani minority and straining Tehran–Baku relations. An expert op-ed warned that the lake’s disappearance, widely seen as a “symbol of failed governance”, has “profound human rights implications” and risks stoking separatist sentiment. Ethnic Azeris in Iran’s neighboring region blame Tehran’s mismanagement and discriminatory policies for the ecological disaster. Protests have flared as toxic salt storms from Urmia’s dry bed threaten public health and agriculture. Compounding matters, Azerbaijan (the country) has voiced concern, viewing Iran’s handling of Urmia as endangering ethnic kin across the border. Iranian authorities, wary of any Azerbaijani irredentism, have cracked down on activists highlighting the crisis. Observers fear Lake Urmia’s collapse – a climate and water mismanagement crisis – could become a geopolitical flashpoint if Azerbaijani anger boils over, adding a volatile new dimension to Iran’s domestic challenges and its fraught relationship with Baku
  jpost.com
  
  
• Taiwan Confronts Largest Chinese Incursion of 2025: Taiwan’s defense ministry reported a massive 30-aircraft, 7-vessel Chinese military incursion on November 16, one of the biggest single-day incursions this year. Half of the PLA warplanes crossed the Taiwan Strait’s median line into Taiwan’s air defense identification zones (ADIZ) spanning the north, central, southwest and east. Taipei scrambled fighters and activated missile defenses in response. The incursion, which coincided with G7 calls to uphold Indo-Pacific stability, underscores Beijing’s intensifying pressure campaign. G7 foreign ministers voiced “strong opposition to any unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force” around Taiwan and the South China Sea
  tribuneindia.com
  
  
• Chinese–Philippine Clash at Scarborough Shoal Escalates SCS Tensions: A dangerous maritime confrontation erupted at Scarborough Shoal as Chinese coast guard vessels used water cannons and rammed a Philippine patrol boat, according to Manila’s account. The November 20 incident – part of China’s effort to enforce new territorial baselines around the disputed reef – drew Manila’s condemnation and U.S. concern. Philippine officials say a Chinese ship deliberately collided with the BRP Datu Pagbuaya during a patrol, prompting Filipino crew to sound collision alarms. Beijing’s coast guard claims it was responding to “dangerous” maneuvers by Philippine vessels in “Chinese waters”
  maritimefairtrade.org

Terrorism & Conflict

• Niger Faces Jihadist Onslaught as French Pullout Leaves Security Vacuum: In the wake of a coup and France’s military exit, Niger has suffered a surge of Islamist militant attacks. On November 19, Al-Qaeda-linked fighters from Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) ambushed a Nigerien unit near Garbougna (Tillaberi region), killing at least 10 soldiers. It’s one of several deadly raids as jihadists exploit the post-coup upheaval. Local sources said militants overran a forward base, underscoring how Niger’s army – cut off from some Western support – is stretched thin in the tri-border Sahel area. The security vacuum following France’s withdrawal has emboldened both JNIM and Islamic State Sahel factions to expand territory and influence. Niger’s military junta has sought aid from Wagner-linked Russia and neighboring Mali, but coordination remains limited. Regional instability is growing: HRW reports Mali’s army (now supported by Wagner mercenaries) massacred dozens of civilians on mere suspicion of jihadist ties. With over 13 million people in the central Sahel needing humanitarian help, the spike in terrorist violence threatens to deepen a catastrophic security and humanitarian crisis
  jpost.com
  
  
• Mali Military and Militias Massacre Villagers Amid Jihadist Conflict: A new Human Rights Watch report implicates Mali’s army and allied ethnic militias in the execution-style killing of 31 civilians during October operations against al-Qaeda-linked insurgents. Witnesses described Malian soldiers and Dozo militiamen rounding up unarmed villagers in the Segou region and accusing them of aiding the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) rebel group before shooting them. Entire families were wiped out; one survivor emerged from hiding to find “17 bodies riddled with bullets” in a single village. Mali’s junta has not responded to the allegations. The abuses come as jihadists impose blockades and expand southward, even as the UN mission exits and Wagner mercenaries bolster Mali’s forces. By targeting civilians from communities suspected of rebel sympathies (often Fulani herders), Mali’s approach risks inflaming the insurgency and deepening ethnic schisms. HRW urged an AU inquiry and accountability for war crimes, warning that impunity in Mali’s counterinsurgency
  reuters.com
  
  
• ISIS-Linked Militia Butchers 89 Civilians in Eastern Congo Attacks: In one of the year’s worst atrocities, fighters from the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) – an ISIS affiliate – slaughtered 89 people in a series of raids across North Kivu province of the DR Congo. Between November 13 and 19, ADF militants attacked several villages and a Catholic-run health center, even killing expectant mothers at a maternity ward and torching patient housing. The UN peacekeeping mission MONUSCO, citing these “barbaric” attacks, urged Congolese authorities to investigate and fortify vulnerable communities. The bloodshed underscores the worsening Islamist insurgency in eastern Congo, where ADF rebels have killed hundreds this year despite military offensives by Congo and Uganda. Experts say the ADF is leveraging Islamic State links to boost funding and propaganda while exploiting ethnic grievances and jungle terrain. With MONUSCO planning to withdraw by end-2024, local civilians fear even deadlier incursions ahead. The ADF’s unchecked brutality
  reuters.com

WMD & Cyberwarfare

• Iran Rebuked by IAEA Over Suspect Nuclear Sites, Tehran Threatens Fallout: The International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors passed a resolution demanding Iran grant inspectors access and data on several nuclear facilities hit by unexplained attacks in June. The November 20 vote (19 in favor, 3 against) came after IAEA chief Rafael Grossi warned Iran still blocks monitoring at bomb-damaged sites like Fordow and Natanz. Iran’s envoy Reza Najafi blasted the move and ominously warned “the resolution will have its own consequences”, while rejecting any cooperation on the “bombed sites”. Tehran insists those locations – allegedly struck by U.S. and Israeli forces during a 12-day conflict in June – are off-limits, offering access only to unaffected facilities
  yahoo.com
  
  
• U.S. Accelerates Hypersonic Weapons Testing in Space-Driven Program: The Pentagon notched a key success in its race for hypersonic arms. On Nov 18, Rocket Lab launched a HASTE (Hypersonic Accelerator Suborbital Test Electron) rocket from Wallops Island, Virginia, carrying multiple experiments for the U.S. Missile Defense Agency and Defense Innovation Unit. The suborbital flight – delivering payloads at >7.5 km/s (over 5 times the speed of sound) – tested components for next-generation glide vehicles and reentry systems. Officials hailed the rapid 14-month turnaround from contract to launch as proof that partnering with commercial space firms can “accelerate hypersonic technology readiness” cost-effectively
  spaceconnectonline.com.au
  
  
• Congress Warns of Chinese Cyber and Space Threats to U.S. Homeland: A new U.S. congressional commission report delivered a stark alert that China could sabotage the U.S. power grid or blind satellites in a future conflict. The bipartisan panel urged swift action to harden America’s electrical infrastructure against malware and ban Chinese-made smart grid components with remote access, citing the discovery of “Volt Typhoon” malware planted by Chinese state hackers in U.S. utility networks. It also noted China’s rapid launch of maneuverable satellites and anti-satellite weapons that might cripple U.S. military response in a Taiwan scenario. The commission recommended Congress fund major grid upgrades, create a dedicated economic statecraft bureau to enforce tech sanctions, and boost Space Force programs to ensure “space superiority”. This comes as President Trump’s recent focus on trade with China has, in experts’ view, underplayed these security issues. With 2027 (China’s target for Taiwan readiness) approaching, U.S. lawmakers are increasingly urgent that bolstering cyber defenses and resilience of critical systems at home is essential to “deny Beijing leverage” in any future showdown.
  washingtonpost.com