Highlighted Works by Mackinder Forum Members

• What’s Worse: A Global Concert of Great Powers or War?
  Francis P. Sempa
  RealClearWorld
  November 7, 2026
  realclearworld.com
• United States Copper Smelting and Refining Capacity and the Case for Western Allied Cooperation
  Isabel Guajardo, Alicia Polo y La Borda Cavero, and Morgan Bazilian
  Payne Institute for Public Policy
  November 11, 2026
  payneinstitute.mines.edu
• The Warrior Is Not the War: How America Is Unlearning the Meaning of Victory
  Isaiah Wilson III
  Compound Security, Unlocked
  November 12, 2026
  compoundsecurityunlocked.substack.com

Weekly Geopolitical News Bulletin: November 7–13, 2026

Iran War: Geostrategic Features

• Iran’s wartime isolation is accelerating its strategic dependence on Russia — Chatham House analyst Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi argues that the US-Israeli war has changed Tehran’s assessment of Moscow from an occasionally unreliable partner to an increasingly important source of military resilience, reconstruction assistance, and long-term deterrence. Three high-level diplomatic meetings in October, renewed discussion of the bilateral strategic partnership, and Russia’s continuing involvement in the Bushehr nuclear project provide evidence of this shift. Moscow’s support remains constrained by its own interests and military commitments, however, and closer public cooperation should not be mistaken for an unconditional defense guarantee. The more consequential development may be Iran’s willingness to accept greater strategic dependence on Russia after months of fighting and sanctions. Bias note: This is institutional expert commentary, not straight news reporting; a neutral account would distinguish documented cooperation from judgments about Tehran’s evolving strategic intentions. Date note: Published November 2, 2026, outside this week’s reporting window; included as an expressly requested exception. For executives, deeper Iran-Russia integration creates longer-term exposure to sanctions, energy-market fragmentation, and geopolitical risk.
  chathamhouse.org
• The US blockade may be increasing the likelihood of renewed war rather than compelling Iranian concessions — Chatham House analyst Bilal Y. Saab argues in a November 9 assessment that Washington’s economic-pressure strategy contains an inherent contradiction. The US naval blockade has damaged Iran’s revenue-generating capacity, but a worsening economic position could encourage Tehran to escalate rather than capitulate. Washington initially imposed the blockade in April, relaxed it after a June memorandum of understanding, and reinstated it in July when the arrangement unraveled. With the US midterm elections concluded, speculation about another military campaign has intensified, although President Donald Trump has also signaled reluctance to restart major combat operations. Saab’s analysis suggests that neither continued coercion nor diplomatic stagnation guarantees stability. Iranian attempts to break the blockade could independently trigger another confrontation, even without an initial American decision to escalate. Bias note: This is an explicitly analytical argument; neutral reporting would weigh alternative assessments of the blockade’s effectiveness and Tehran’s incentives. For executives, maritime disruption should remain a central contingency even if Washington refrains from new strikes.
  chathamhouse.org
• Tehran’s refusal to confirm negotiations leaves the Strait of Hormuz hostage to maximalist demands — Al Jazeera reports that Iranian security chief Mohsen Rezaei dismissed claims of ongoing US-Iran negotiations and insisted that Washington must respond to Tehran’s seven conditions before the Strait of Hormuz can reopen. Speaking earlier in the week, Rezaei rejected suggestions of a meeting in Qatar, even as Trump expressed optimism about diplomatic momentum. Iran has not publicly disclosed its full list of conditions, although officials have identified sanctions relief, the lifting of the US blockade, and an end to hostilities on multiple fronts among their demands. Secretary of State Marco Rubio simultaneously argued that economic pressure had reduced the need for renewed major combat operations. Reports of further attacks on commercial vessels underscored the gulf between diplomatic statements and conditions at sea. Bias note: Al Jazeera is funded by Qatar, which also serves as a regional mediator; independent reporting would emphasize equally the American and Iranian accounts and uncertainty surrounding their private contacts. For executives, political statements about negotiations should not be treated as evidence of an imminent reopening of Hormuz.
  aljazeera.com
• Israeli preparations for renewed strikes complicate Washington’s attempt to contain the Iran conflict — Al Jazeera reports that Israeli media described instructions from Israel’s security cabinet to increase military readiness for possible strikes against Iran. The reported preparations emerged as Tehran threatened a wider response to any renewed American attack, including potential strikes against military facilities supporting operations from beyond the Middle East. The Israeli political context adds uncertainty: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is operating in a caretaker capacity after his coalition lost its parliamentary majority, while opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot has warned against initiating military action without an immediate threat. Washington, meanwhile, has emphasized economic pressure and the possibility of diplomacy rather than another major air campaign. These positions are not necessarily coordinated, leaving open the possibility that an Israeli decision could undermine a tentative diplomatic opening. Bias note: Al Jazeera’s Qatari-funded coverage emphasizes escalation concerns; neutral reporting would distinguish confirmed Israeli government decisions from anonymously sourced media accounts and assess Israeli security arguments separately. For executives, an Israeli-initiated escalation remains a material risk independent of US negotiating signals.
  aljazeera.com
• Iranian drone activity near Bahrain exposes the fragility of the Gulf’s partial de-escalation — The Associated Press reports that US forces intercepted two Iranian attack drones headed toward Bahrain on November 13, while Iran’s Revolutionary Guard claimed it had struck an American early-warning radar installation in the kingdom. US Central Command denied that any radar facility had been damaged and reported no injuries. Tehran said its operation followed an American strike on a telecommunications installation in southern Iran; the competing accounts have not been independently reconciled. The confrontation occurred alongside an Iranian claim that a liquefied petroleum gas tanker had struck a mine in the Strait of Hormuz, another allegation requiring verification. The incident demonstrates how regional military activity can continue even while senior officials discuss negotiations or characterize major combat operations as unnecessary. Gulf infrastructure, US facilities, and maritime routes remain exposed to rapid escalation. For executives, contingency planning should account for sudden aviation, shipping, insurance, and energy disruptions despite diplomatic efforts to reduce the conflict.
  apnews.com

Geoeconomics

• The oil market is moving toward surplus, but refined-fuel shortages continue to transmit the Iran war’s economic costs — The International Energy Agency reports in its November 13 Oil Market Report that global oil supply increased by 2.3 million barrels per day in October to 105.4 million barrels per day as Gulf exports recovered. The agency expects supply to exceed demand in the fourth quarter, with inventories rising for the first time since June. North Sea Dated crude prices had fallen by more than 30 percent from their early-October peak, but remained above prewar levels. This apparent improvement conceals continuing tightness in diesel and other refined products, while shipping costs and attacks on energy infrastructure remain elevated. The IEA projects global oil demand to decline by 2.7 million barrels per day in 2026 before recovering in 2027. These projections depend heavily on maritime security and the durability of resumed exports. For executives, falling crude prices should not be confused with a comprehensive normalization of transport, manufacturing, or fuel costs.
  iea.org
• China’s rare-earth commitments have not eliminated its leverage over Western industrial supply chains — CSIS analysts Gracelin Baskaran and Max Martin assess whether Beijing fulfilled commitments associated with the 2025 Busan agreement and conclude that headline trade stability conceals significant imbalances. Although aggregate Chinese exports of relevant rare-earth materials remained relatively stable, shipments to the United States and Japan declined substantially. CSIS calculates that monthly US imports of rare-earth compounds and metals averaged 19.3 metric tons during the eleven months following the agreement, almost 75 percent below the comparison level cited in its analysis. Japan also experienced a sharp reduction in Chinese supplies, reinforcing the relationship between export licensing and geopolitical disputes. The broader US-China trade truce has been extended into January 2027, but China’s licensing system remains intact. Bias note: CSIS approaches the issue through a strategic supply-chain security lens; neutral commercial reporting would also consider product-specific demand, inventory adjustments, and licensing implementation. For executives, rare-earth diversification and inventory planning remain necessary despite diplomatic assurances of improved trade relations.
  csis.org
• China’s trillion-dollar trade surplus demonstrates export resilience while intensifying pressure for protectionist responses — The Associated Press reports that Chinese customs data showed a trade surplus of approximately $1.04 trillion during January–October 2026, exceeding the trillion-dollar threshold for a second consecutive year. October exports rose 35.2 percent from a year earlier, while imports increased 41.6 percent. Semiconductor and automobile exports were especially strong, helping compensate for weak domestic demand and persistent industrial overcapacity. The figures also suggest that tariffs and export restrictions have not prevented Chinese manufacturers from expanding their international commercial presence. However, the growing surplus reinforces concerns among trading partners about competition, pricing pressures, and market access. The temporary US-China trade truce offers some relief, but disputes over advanced technology and industrial capacity remain unresolved. Economists quoted by AP warn that a slowdown in artificial-intelligence investment could weaken an important source of Chinese export growth. For executives, the central risk is not simply stronger Chinese competition, but increasingly unpredictable trade defenses across multiple markets.
  apnews.com
• Russian oil exports are shifting toward China as Indian demand contracts sharply — S&P Global Energy reports that Russian crude exports fell 36.6 percent month over month in October, averaging approximately 2.79 million barrels per day despite some relief from US sanctions-related measures. Shipments to India declined by 67 percent from September, while exports to China increased, making Beijing an increasingly important destination for Russian barrels. The changes reflect both commercial competition for available shipments and the changing regulatory environment. Russian crude continued to trade at a substantial discount to international benchmarks, while refined-product exports displayed a different pattern, increasing from September despite ongoing attacks on Russian downstream infrastructure. S&P also identifies unusual US-bound Russian diesel flows associated with a separate bilateral supply arrangement. The figures illustrate how sanctions relief, wartime infrastructure damage, and changing Asian purchasing patterns can interact in unexpected ways. For executives, assessing Russian energy exposure now requires attention to individual products, shipping routes, counterparties, and sanctions provisions rather than headline export totals alone.
  spglobal.com
• Japan’s record currency intervention highlights how Middle East instability is spilling into Asian monetary policy — Reuters, in reporting carried by MarketScreener on November 9, details newly released Japanese Finance Ministry data showing that Tokyo spent approximately 7.98 trillion yen, equivalent to $50.36 billion, on a single day in July to support its currency. That surpassed Japan’s previous daily intervention record. The government also intervened on subsequent dates as the yen traded near its weakest levels in four decades. Although the transactions occurred earlier in the year, the release of their precise scale is a new development within this reporting window. The disclosures demonstrate the extraordinary resources deployed to counter currency depreciation, at a time when the Iran war has increased import costs and weakened energy-dependent currencies. The data also indicate coordination across regional and international financial authorities, including a separate American intervention. For executives, persistent energy-market volatility may create renewed exchange-rate instability and hedging costs in Japan and other import-dependent Asian economies.
  uk.marketscreener.com

Military Developments

• Ukraine’s massed drone campaign signals a shift toward sustained attacks on Russian territory and energy infrastructure — The Associated Press reports that Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed to have intercepted 1,198 Ukrainian long-range drones between November 12 and 13, a figure that has not been independently verified. Russian regional officials nevertheless acknowledged casualties from attacks, while Ukraine said its forces struck an oil refinery in Volgograd. The reported operation reflects Kyiv’s continuing effort to impose costs deep inside Russia despite pressure along the front line and renewed negotiations over a possible settlement. Moscow simultaneously launched 117 drones against Ukraine, with attacks disrupting electricity supplies and damaging residential buildings. Both sides are using long-range strike capabilities to influence economic resilience and negotiating leverage, not merely battlefield positions. The scale of the reported Ukrainian operation also highlights the growing industrial and logistical importance of inexpensive unmanned systems, air defenses, and counter-drone technology. For executives, the expanding geographical reach of the war raises risks to energy assets, transportation networks, and companies operating near strategic industrial infrastructure.
  apnews.com
• China’s unannounced Pacific exercises demonstrate coercive military signaling without the political costs of a formal crisis — Reuters, in reporting published by Investing.com, describes a large Chinese naval and coast guard exercise conducted across the western Pacific in early November and disclosed by Taiwanese officials this week. According to a Taiwanese security official, the deployment involved more than 100 vessels at one point and included simulated attacks and operations relevant to a Taiwan blockade. China did not publicly announce the exercise under a formal name, allowing it to display military capabilities while limiting international attention and diplomatic reaction. Taiwan described the maneuver as a form of intimidation ahead of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, which China is hosting next week. Beijing characterized related carrier activity as routine. The report also describes coordinated participation by several Chinese theater commands, suggesting an emphasis on operations beyond Taiwan’s immediate approaches. For executives, increased Chinese military activity may become harder to distinguish from preparations for an actual coercive operation, complicating shipping, insurance, and supply-chain contingency planning.
  investing.com
• Pentagon support for a permanent US base in Poland could strengthen NATO’s eastern deterrence posture — Defense News reports that Polish Defense Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz said the Pentagon had given a favorable assessment of proposals for a permanent American military presence in Poland. A final decision remains with the White House and is expected in December, so the project is not yet approved. Discussions have focused on accommodating approximately 5,000 additional US personnel, with Polish authorities identifying potential locations and offering support for infrastructure construction. Poland already hosts roughly 10,000 American troops, predominantly under rotational arrangements. A permanent installation would carry strategic and political significance beyond the immediate troop numbers, potentially anchoring US commitments along NATO’s eastern flank and improving logistical readiness. The proposal also comes amid wider uncertainty over transatlantic security arrangements and negotiations with Russia concerning Ukraine. For executives, permanent basing decisions would affect European defense procurement, infrastructure development, military logistics, and calculations about the durability of US regional commitments.
  defensenews.com
• The EU is turning its Ukraine training mission into a long-term pillar of postwar security support — Interfax-Ukraine, citing the Council of the European Union, reports that EU governments on November 9 extended the mandate of the EU Military Assistance Mission in support of Ukraine (EUMAM Ukraine) for two more years, until November 15, 2028, with funding of almost €300 million. The Council also agreed to establish a mission presence inside Ukraine to coordinate directly with Ukrainian military authorities, and broadened the mandate to focus on lessons from the battlefield and on training tailored to Ukraine’s defense needs. European instructors have trained more than 100,000 Ukrainian personnel since the mission began in 2022. The mission will coordinate with the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada and Norway, as well as with the Coalition of the Willing and NATO’s Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine command. The decision converts a wartime training program into a standing component of the security guarantees Europe is preparing for any settlement, although training itself continues to take place in EU member states. Bias note: Interfax-Ukraine is a Ukrainian news agency relaying the EU Council’s official announcement; independent reporting would assess the mission’s training outcomes, member-state contributions, and Russian objections to a Western military presence in Ukraine. For executives, a durable EU training and coordination structure signals sustained European demand for military training, logistics, and equipment support for Ukraine regardless of when a ceasefire arrives.
  en.interfax.com.ua
• NATO’s use of Ukrainian forces as simulated adversaries exposes weaknesses in conventional military doctrine — Breaking Defense reports that Admiral Pierre Vandier, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Transformation, described efforts to use Ukrainian personnel and unmanned surface vessels as opposing forces in allied exercises. The goal is to accelerate changes in military doctrine by testing established NATO formations against tactics refined during Ukraine’s war with Russia. Vandier emphasized the threats that drone swarms and unmanned maritime systems pose to amphibious operations and other conventional missions. He also discussed NATO’s broader initiative to challenge assumptions about operational concepts and the limits of existing defensive capabilities. The program reflects growing recognition that relatively inexpensive unmanned platforms can threaten expensive naval vessels and traditional force structures. Ukrainian experience is therefore becoming an important input into NATO training and capability development. For executives, the adaptation process will influence procurement priorities, demand for counter-drone systems, maritime surveillance, electronic warfare, and the commercial technologies increasingly incorporated into military operations.
  breakingdefense.com

Political and Diplomatic Developments

• Israel’s post-election coalition negotiations could alter the political direction of its regional wars — The Associated Press reports that Israeli President Isaac Herzog gave opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot the first opportunity to form a government following the October 27 elections. The decision followed the loss of the parliamentary majority previously held by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his allies. Eisenkot has up to six weeks to assemble a coalition, but neither major bloc holds a majority, making smaller parties potentially decisive. Arab-led parties achieved significant gains and could play an important role in determining the government’s composition, although their participation would be politically contentious. Disagreements over military strategy, relations with Palestinians, and accountability for the October 2023 attacks complicate potential coalition arrangements. Netanyahu remains prime minister in a caretaker capacity while the process unfolds. For executives, Israeli political uncertainty directly affects the likelihood of additional military operations against Iran, the durability of regional ceasefire arrangements, and the prospects for more stable diplomatic and commercial relationships.
  apnews.com
• Renewed Ukraine negotiations are expanding into a contest over Europe’s future security architecture — The Associated Press reports that US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on November 12 before traveling to Dublin to confer with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The meetings followed direct Russian-Ukrainian negotiations in Abu Dhabi, which produced no major breakthrough beyond plans for a prisoner exchange and further discussions. A particularly consequential development was the stated intention to include European representatives in subsequent talks. Moscow has previously resisted direct European participation, while European governments insist that any settlement affecting the continent’s security cannot be negotiated without them. Russian officials have raised longstanding objections to NATO deployments, increasing concern that territorial negotiations could expand into demands affecting alliance security arrangements. The diplomatic process therefore involves more than a ceasefire in Ukraine; it also concerns the broader relationship between Russia, NATO, and European states. For executives, the negotiations create uncertainty over sanctions, reconstruction opportunities, defense spending, and the security assumptions supporting European investment.
  apnews.com
• COP31 is exposing the widening gap between climate diplomacy and national energy priorities — The Environmental and Energy Study Institute reports that the COP31 climate conference opened in Antalya, Turkey, on November 9, with a substantial international presence and a leaders’ summit on November 11–12. The gathering is taking place amid the economic consequences of the Iran war, renewed concerns about energy security, and disagreements over the pace of decarbonization. The institute highlights participation by US state and local actors despite the federal government’s withdrawal from major international climate commitments. The conference has also attracted fossil-fuel industry representatives, while Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan announced the opening of new oil fields as negotiations began. These developments reflect the competing priorities shaping climate policy: energy affordability, security of supply, industrial development, and emissions reduction. Bias note: EESI is a nonprofit advocate for climate and environmental policy; neutral reporting would also emphasize governments’ energy-security arguments and the economic constraints facing exporters and importers. For executives, COP31 negotiations may influence disclosure requirements, energy investment, and future carbon-related trade measures.
  eesi.org
• The Dutch coalition survives for now, but its tax dispute exposes the fragility of centrist government — NL Times reports that Prime Minister Rob Jetten’s minority coalition survived crisis discussions on November 13 after the VVD agreed to remain in government for the time being. The compromise is conditional rather than a resolution: VVD leader Dilan Yeşilgöz warned that the cabinet could still fall and demanded substantive and political changes. The dispute began when Jetten’s D66 and the Christian Democrats worked with opposition parties PRO and Volt to approve amendments to the 2027 tax plan, increasing the tax burden on wealthier households while providing relief to lower- and middle-income taxpayers. The VVD, which opposed the wealth-tax measures, voted against the amended plan despite participating in the government. The legislation passed the lower house by a narrow majority, but additional parliamentary hurdles remain. Following seven hours of talks, Jetten said the parties would continue discussions over the weekend. For executives, the fragile truce leaves Dutch taxation, investment policy and coalition durability subject to renewed political uncertainty.
  nltimes.nl
• The G7 is seeking to preserve a common position on Ukraine while peace negotiations test transatlantic cohesion — The Italian Foreign Ministry published a joint declaration on November 11 following the G7 foreign ministers’ meeting in Paris. The statement reaffirmed support for Ukrainian sovereignty, urged a comprehensive and reciprocal ceasefire, and insisted that European states participate in negotiations concerning their own security. Ministers also emphasized Ukraine’s air-defense needs, future financing, resilience against attacks on energy infrastructure, and continued coordination of sanctions against Russia. The communiqué identified Moscow’s overseas military suppliers and expressed concern about vessels and intermediaries used to circumvent sanctions. Although the declaration demonstrates formal agreement among participating governments, it does not resolve significant differences over the terms of a peace settlement or the concessions that individual states might accept. Bias note: This is an official G7 statement presenting the governments’ shared position; independent reporting would assess their policy differences, implementation commitments, and Russian responses. For executives, coordinated sanctions and security assurances remain important, but the durability of allied policy cannot be inferred from diplomatic language alone.
  esteri.it

Geostrategic Flashpoints

• Beijing’s renewed unification rhetoric reinforces the political demands accompanying military pressure on Taiwan — Reuters, in a report published by MarketScreener, describes Chinese President Xi Jinping’s November 12 declaration that unification with Taiwan must ultimately be achieved. Xi emphasized peaceful means and did not explicitly threaten force in the speech, but Beijing continues to reject Taiwan’s separate political status and has never renounced military options. Taiwan’s government dismissed the remarks, reiterating its opposition to Beijing’s proposed “one country, two systems” framework. The speech occurred shortly before China hosts the APEC leaders’ summit in Shenzhen and against a background of continued military activity around Taiwan. Xi’s formulation reinforces an existing policy rather than announcing an immediate new operation, but it places sovereignty claims at the center of a sensitive diplomatic period. Taiwanese officials emphasized that the island’s future must be determined by its population. For executives, the danger lies in the interaction between persistent political demands, expanded military signaling, and the possibility that either side misreads the other’s intentions.
  uk.marketscreener.com
• Taiwan’s status at the upcoming APEC summit has become a test of Beijing’s diplomatic pressure — The Taipei Times, carrying Reuters reporting, describes President Lai Ching-te’s insistence that Taiwan participate in the forthcoming APEC leaders’ meeting in Shenzhen on an equal basis with other members. Taipei had sought written assurances concerning its treatment at the China-hosted gathering. Beijing responded that Taiwan’s participation must conform to its interpretation of the one-China principle and APEC procedures. Taiwan plans to send Acer founder Stan Shih as its representative, consistent with the practice of avoiding politically contentious attendance by senior elected leaders. The dispute illustrates how multilateral economic institutions have become arenas for contesting Taiwan’s international position. APEC includes Taiwan as a participating economy, but China’s hosting role gives Beijing opportunities to exert diplomatic pressure over its representation. The disagreement comes as US and Chinese leaders prepare for additional high-level contact. For executives, the treatment of Taiwan at APEC could influence cross-strait political tensions and complicate regional economic diplomacy.
  taipeitimes.com
• Renewed Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions threaten to open another conflict across an already destabilized Red Sea region — Brookings analyst Jeffrey Feltman warns that deteriorating relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea could produce another interstate war, with the two governments reportedly approaching confrontation in October. Their previous rapprochement has eroded, while competing security concerns and regional alliances have made de-escalation increasingly difficult. Feltman argues that another war would likely attract outside involvement and worsen humanitarian pressures in a region already affected by Sudan’s civil war, instability in Somalia, and fighting associated with Yemen. The consequences could extend beyond the two countries, including additional displacement, disruption of regional commercial routes, and intensified competition among external powers. A renewed war is not inevitable, but the absence of durable mechanisms to address mutual security concerns makes the risks substantial. Bias note: This is a diplomatic-policy commentary advocating preventive engagement; neutral reporting would also examine the stated security grievances and positions of both governments. For executives, the danger is a broader regional crisis affecting transport corridors, investment, and Red Sea security.
  brookings.edu
• Russia’s Arctic military posture presents a growing challenge to NATO’s northern security architecture — The Center for European Policy Analysis argues that Russia remains the principal military threat to Western interests in the Arctic, despite growing attention to commercial opportunities created by changing environmental conditions. Analyst Mathieu Boulègue emphasizes Moscow’s established infrastructure, naval capabilities, and strategic interest in maintaining access across the northern region. A recent US-Denmark-Greenland agreement provides a new foundation for Western military cooperation, but the analysis suggests that the alliance must continue developing surveillance, defense, and resilience capabilities across a vast and difficult operating environment. The Arctic’s importance also extends to potential shipping routes, critical infrastructure, and resources, particularly as instability disrupts traditional maritime passages elsewhere. Bias note: CEPA explicitly advances a transatlantic security perspective; neutral reporting would also assess Russian defensive arguments, operational constraints, and the distinction between military presence and demonstrated offensive intent. For executives, Arctic competition adds a long-term risk dimension to shipping, energy projects, telecommunications, and strategic infrastructure investment.
  cepa.org
• The South China Sea code-of-conduct negotiations are advancing procedurally but remain divided over enforceable restraints — The Associated Press reports that China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations have provisionally agreed on approximately 80 percent of the proposed text for a maritime code of conduct, according to regional diplomats familiar with negotiations. Despite that progress, the parties are unlikely to finalize the agreement by their previously stated 2026 deadline. Major disputes concern the geographical scope of the arrangement, the meaning of key provisions, and whether the final instrument should carry legal obligations. The talks are intended to reduce the risk of confrontations in a commercially important maritime region where China and several Southeast Asian states have overlapping claims. However, the prolonged negotiations illustrate the difficulty of reconciling sovereignty disputes with practical rules for military and coast guard behavior. The issue will remain prominent at upcoming ASEAN meetings. For executives, an incomplete agreement offers limited protection against maritime incidents, particularly in contested areas involving fishing fleets, energy exploration, and commercial shipping.
  apnews.com

Terrorism and Conflict

• US terrorism charges underscore the alleged expansion of Iranian-backed networks beyond the Middle East — The US Department of Justice announced a superseding indictment on November 10 charging three men with terrorism-related offenses connected to an alleged network supporting Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Kata’ib Hezbollah. Prosecutors describe involvement in nearly twenty completed or attempted attacks across Europe and the United States, including an alleged September plot targeting RAF Fairford in Britain, where American military personnel were stationed. The allegations also involve communications through criminal associates and attempts to coordinate activity across borders. The charges suggest a threat model extending beyond conventional military strikes to clandestine operations against military installations and civilian targets. Importantly, an indictment presents allegations that must be tested in court; it does not establish the defendants’ guilt. Bias note: The Justice Department release presents the prosecution’s account; independent reporting would seek defense responses, assess evidence disclosed in court, and distinguish alleged conspiracies from proven attacks. For executives, organizations with international operations should include state-linked terrorism and indirect targeting of Western interests in security assessments.
  justice.gov
• A deadly Pakistani Taliban ambush reveals the growing overlap between insurgency and organized criminal activity — The Associated Press reports that ten Pakistani police officers were killed in an ambush in Kohat district, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, on November 11. The Pakistani Taliban, also known as Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, claimed responsibility, while police said eighteen militants were killed during the ensuing fighting. The attack occurred as officers returned from an operation targeting criminal activity involving illegal gold mining. Pakistani authorities alleged cooperation between militant and criminal networks, although they did not provide public evidence supporting all aspects of those claims. The incident reflects a deteriorating security environment along Pakistan’s border with Afghanistan, where insurgent violence has intensified and relations with Kabul remain strained. Islamabad frequently accuses Afghanistan’s Taliban government of allowing Pakistani militants to operate from its territory, a claim that Kabul denies. For executives, insecurity along this border threatens transport, extractive activity, local supply chains, and the broader investment environment in Pakistan’s northwestern regions.
  apnews.com
• Houthi claims against Saudi oil infrastructure demonstrate the vulnerability of routes bypassing Hormuz — Reuters, in reporting carried by Dawn on November 13, describes Houthi claims of attacks against a pumping station on Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline, an energy facility at Yanbu, and an Aramco building in Riyadh. The claims were not independently verified in the article, and the extent of any resulting damage remained unclear. Their significance lies in the importance of the East-West pipeline as an alternative to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which has been heavily disrupted by the Iran war. Saudi Arabia has rerouted approximately four million barrels of crude per day through the system toward the Red Sea. Successful attacks against that infrastructure would threaten one of the region’s most important remaining export pathways. The Houthis have also disputed Saudi accusations concerning separate missile launches near Islam’s holy cities. For executives, the claims reinforce the need to assess Red Sea and Saudi infrastructure exposure alongside, rather than separately from, Gulf maritime risks.
  dawn.com
• Haiti’s persistent civilian casualties show that intensified security operations have not restored public safety — Haiti’s Le Nouvelliste reports newly released United Nations figures documenting at least 1,167 deaths and 459 injuries during the third quarter of 2026. The UN Integrated Office in Haiti also recorded 137 kidnappings and 344 victims of sexual violence, with gangs responsible for a substantial proportion of the violence. The report identifies continued insecurity in the capital region and other departments while raising concerns about abuses associated with security operations, including allegations of extrajudicial killings. The data cover July through September, but their publication on November 11 provides a new assessment of the country’s security trajectory. The continuing scale of violence illustrates the limitations of military and police measures without functioning institutions, accountability, and effective territorial control. The UN has called for stronger civilian protection and additional support for security efforts. For executives, Haiti remains a high-risk operating environment, with severe exposure affecting personnel safety, transportation, insurance, and humanitarian supply chains.
  lenouvelliste.com
• Drone attacks in Sudan’s Blue Nile state indicate a widening civilian threat near the Ethiopian frontier — Anadolu Agency reports that a local official attributed an attack killing at least nine civilians in Sudan’s Blue Nile state to drones operated by the Rapid Support Forces. Several other people were reportedly seriously injured in the strike on Bani Shako village. The official did not specify the precise date of the attack, and the RSF had not publicly responded to the allegation at the time of publication. The incident comes amid intensified fighting involving Sudanese government forces, the RSF, and allied armed groups near the Ethiopian border. The conflict’s geographical spread increases the likelihood of cross-border displacement, disruption of humanitarian access, and further regional involvement. The attack also illustrates how relatively inexpensive drone capabilities can extend violence into civilian areas far from traditional front lines. Bias note: Anadolu is Turkey’s state-run news agency, and the report relies primarily on a Sudanese official’s allegation; independent verification and an RSF response remain necessary. For executives, border-region insecurity creates mounting risks for regional transportation and humanitarian operations.
  aa.com.tr

WMD & Cyberwarfare

• Iran’s refusal to resume nuclear inspections is creating a dangerous verification gap after successive military campaigns — The Associated Press reports that Iran told the International Atomic Energy Agency that discussions about restoring nuclear monitoring cannot proceed while the country faces renewed threats of military attack. A confidential IAEA report circulated on November 13 indicates that inspectors remain unable to verify the condition of nuclear sites damaged during earlier US and Israeli strikes or establish the current status of Iran’s highly enriched uranium stockpile. The agency’s previously reported inventory included approximately 440.9 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent purity, but the present location and condition of that material cannot be independently confirmed. The IAEA also expressed concern about an enrichment facility near Isfahan that inspectors have never visited. Tehran maintains that its program is peaceful and says it remains committed to eventually fulfilling its safeguards obligations. For executives, the expanding nuclear-monitoring gap increases the risk of miscalculation, renewed military action, and additional sanctions affecting regional energy and commercial activity.
  apnews.com
• US disruption of North Korean cryptocurrency theft networks targets a major source of revenue for Pyongyang — The US Department of Justice announced coordinated enforcement actions on November 12 against cryptocurrency theft operations attributed to the North Korean government. Authorities reported seizing infrastructure associated with an alleged social-engineering campaign known as FaceStealer, which they said had generated more than $400 million in stolen cryptocurrency over eighteen months. They also announced court-authorized measures to seize or restrain more than $1.2 billion in assets associated with a separate theft from Binance. Investigators described the use of compromised accounts, deceptive video meetings, and artificial intelligence-generated impersonations to gain access to victims. The activity reportedly extended toward the open-source software supply chain, expanding the threat beyond cryptocurrency holders. US officials argue that stolen digital assets help finance North Korea’s illicit programs, including weapons development. Bias note: The Justice Department release presents US government investigative and attribution claims; independent reporting would separate confirmed recoveries from allegations concerning operators and ultimate beneficiaries. For executives, identity verification and software supply-chain security are increasingly important defenses against state-linked financial cybercrime.
  justice.gov
• Russian cyberespionage is exploiting enterprise email infrastructure for persistent access to government communications — The Record reports that cybersecurity researchers at ESET discovered a previously undocumented Russian-linked toolset, dubbed Cereal, designed to compromise Microsoft Exchange servers and intercept sensitive communications. ESET attributed the campaign with high confidence to Turla, a cyberespionage group widely linked to Russia’s Federal Security Service. Investigators found the malware at government organizations in Kazakhstan and Romania, where it was configured to collect correspondence involving NATO and European Union institutions. The intrusions were discovered in late 2025, but the toolkit and technical analysis were publicly disclosed on November 10. The attackers used compromised Exchange infrastructure to manage commands without relying on external command-and-control servers, helping conceal their activity. Researchers could not determine the initial intrusion method or quantify the information stolen. The case underscores the advantages that patient, stealthy espionage can offer over disruptive attacks. For executives, monitoring of email servers, privileged access and internal network traffic remains critical for organizations handling sensitive government, defense or commercial information.
  therecord.media
• France’s attribution of supermarket cyberattacks to Iran reveals how digital operations can cause physical infrastructure damage — BleepingComputer reports that French authorities attributed cyberattacks against refrigeration systems at more than 700 retail locations to hackers linked to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The attacks occurred in October, but France announced its attribution on November 9, making the official identification a new development within the reporting window. According to French officials, attackers manipulated refrigeration controllers, causing substantial food losses and contributing to at least fifteen fires. The government identified an Iranian cyber-offensive unit, Shahid Kaveh, as responsible. The case illustrates the growing potential for cyber operations against ordinary commercial systems to create physical safety hazards and economic disruption. It also extends the strategic consequences of the Iran conflict into civilian infrastructure far from the battlefield. The technical evidence supporting the government’s attribution was not independently established in the report. For executives, operational technology security should encompass building-management systems, refrigeration, industrial controls, and other network-connected equipment whose compromise could produce real-world damage.
  bleepingcomputer.com
• A ransomware claim against Maersk demonstrates how acquired legacy systems can expose global logistics companies — BleepingComputer reports that shipping company Maersk confirmed unauthorized access to a local system inherited through an earlier acquisition, following a ransomware claim by a group identifying itself as WhiteArmor. The attackers threatened to release approximately 100 gigabytes of allegedly stolen information and demanded $5 million. Maersk acknowledged the breach but said its investigation had not identified disclosure of sensitive data or an effect on its wider systems and customers. The company also stated that it did not expect operational disruptions and that booking and shipment-management services remained available. The case illustrates the security challenges created by integrating acquired businesses, particularly when older systems remain connected to large corporate environments. It does not establish that the attackers compromised Maersk’s core global shipping platforms. For executives, the incident reinforces the importance of post-acquisition technology reviews, network segmentation, third-party access controls, and incident plans that distinguish isolated data exposure from operational disruption.
  bleepingcomputer.com