Geoeconomics

• EU braces for 10 % “baseline” tariff in U.S. deal: Brussels officials now expect any trans-Atlantic accord will start with reciprocal 10 % duties on most goods—an outcome they call a “sticky issue” but one Washington insists is fair before a July 9 deadline for harsher Trump tariffs.
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• Oil-market jitters over Israel-Iran war: Analysts warned the shooting war could shut the Strait of Hormuz and push Brent crude to $120-$130 a barrel; even without a blockade, prices have already added a double-digit “geopolitical premium” this week. (Fox Business tends to echo U.S. energy-industry views; Citi and JPMorgan figures in the story offer more neutral price scenarios.)
  foxbusiness.com
  
  

• China’s Factories Slump, Shoppers Spend – China’s factory output growth hit a 6-month low in May as U.S. tariffs and a property slump squeezed its economy. However, retail sales jumped 6.4% – the fastest in 17 months – thanks to holiday spending and subsidies, offering a short-lived boost amid a fragile U.S.-China trade truce that still leaves tariffs at 55%.
  reuters.com

Military Developments

• Israel & Iran Trade Blows in Open War – One week into their war, Israel has pounded Iranian nuclear and military sites with airstrikes, while Iran has launched ballistic missiles at Israeli cities. The unprecedented direct conflict – which Israeli officials frame as an existential fight (Energy Minister Israel Katz said Iran’s leader “cannot continue to exist”) – has caused heavy casualties on both sides and risks spiraling despite nascent diplomatic efforts to halt the fighting.
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• Russian Drones Batter Ukrainian Cities – Russia launched nighttime drone attacks on at least two Ukrainian cities, killing at least one civilian and injuring others. The uptick in Iranian-made Shahed drone strikes and missiles comes amid grinding battles on the eastern front; analysts note Moscow is resorting to high-cost attritional tactics yielding only marginal gains at enormous cost. (Russia’s state media portrays the Ukraine fight as progressing, but independent analysts call the gains “unsustainable” given Russia’s losses.)
  reuters.com
  euromaidanpress.com
  

   

• U.S. Weighs Intervention in Iran War – Washington has put forces in the Middle East on alert as President Trump said he’ll decide “within two weeks” whether to directly involve U.S. military power in the Israel–Iran war. The Pentagon began evacuating some diplomatic staff from Israel amid the intensifying conflict. (Trump has hinted at striking Iran’s Fordow nuclear site if diplomacy fails, but U.S. officials are divided – wary of a broader regional war even as they vow to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.)
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• Chinese Jets Challenge Japan – In East Asia, two Chinese aircraft carriers deployed in the Pacific for the first time, and Chinese J-15 fighter jets flew within 45 meters of Japanese patrol planes in a provocative intercept. Tokyo lodged a protest over the “abnormal” maneuvers near Okinawa, warning that such aggression could cause a collision. Beijing insisted its operations were lawful and told Japan to halt “dangerous” surveillance, as regional tensions spike with China’s growing military reach beyond the South China Sea.
  reuters.com
  (This article is from June 12, but was missed in last week's bulletin.)

Political & Diplomatic Developments

• NATO Summit Faces Spending Rift – The success of next week’s NATO summit in the Netherlands hung in the balance after Spain flatly rejected President Trump’s demand that all allies spend 5% of GDP on defense. Spanish PM Pedro Sánchez blasted the 5% target as “unreasonable” and warned it would hurt Europe’s own defense plans. France, Italy, Belgium and others also balk at the unprecedented hike, forcing frantic diplomacy to avoid a bust-up as Trump threatens to withhold U.S. protection from “free-rider” allies. (AP notes Spain’s center-left government and others prefer gradual increases; Trump’s stance has drawn criticism in Europe, recalling his contentious approach to NATO in his first term.)
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• Europeans Pursue Iran Diplomacy – As fighting rages, European powers launched a diplomatic push to cool the Israel–Iran crisis. Iran’s foreign minister flew to Geneva for talks with the EU, UK, France and Germany aimed at reviving negotiations over Tehran’s nuclear program. French President Emmanuel Macron said a “comprehensive, diplomatic and technical offer” would be presented to Iran in exchange for de-escalation. (Iran’s initial response was defiant – Foreign Minister Araghchi insisted “no talks” until Israel’s attacks stop and that Iran’s missile capabilities are off-limits– underscoring the steep challenges for diplomacy.)
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• Iran Finds Itself Isolated – Despite Tehran’s calls for support, even its usual partners have offered scant help five days into Israel’s bombardment of Iran. Russia and China, notably, steered clear of the conflict at a Eurasian economic forum, focusing on growth initiatives rather than aiding Iran. This tepid response – Venezuela and others issued only routine condemnations – leaves Iran diplomatically isolated as it faces military onslaught, in stark contrast to the robust backing it expected from allies. (The Jerusalem Post, a conservative Israeli outlet, notes Iran “likely expected a lot more support” but found even friends like Russia unable or unwilling to intervene meaningfully)
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• Putin Caught on Sidelines – Moscow’s Limited Role in Israel-Iran War: Russian President Vladimir Putin is watching Israel’s assault on Iran with mounting concern for his ally but with “few tools to intervene,” according to a Bloomberg analysis. Russia’s military is tied down in Ukraine, limiting Putin to diplomatic posturing – he has called for a ceasefire and warned U.S. involvement would “radically destabilize” the Middle East. (Jerusalem Post, reflecting an Israeli viewpoint, notes the Kremlin’s predicament mirrors its Syria experience: Russia fears losing regional influence but can do little beyond issue warnings.)
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Geostrategic Flashpoints

• Israel–Iran Escalation – The Israel-Iran war emerged as the world’s most dangerous flashpoint. Israel’s “Operation Rising Lion” strikes have targeted Iran’s nuclear sites and Revolutionary Guard bases, while Iran’s missile salvos reached major Israeli cities. The conflict risks drawing in proxies across the Middle East – Iran-backed Hezbollah allegedly put forces on alert in Lebanon, and the U.S. is positioning assets in the Gulf. Russia and China, while uneasy, remain on the sidelines (Russia only offering to mediate).
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• Taiwan Strait Tensions Flare – Taiwan reported 70+ Chinese warplanes around the island in 24 hours, including 15 jets crossing the Taiwan Strait’s median line during joint drills with Chinese naval ships. The incursions – denounced by Taipei as intimidation – came just after a British Navy vessel transited the strait, which Beijing blasted as a provocation “to cause trouble”. Britain insists its patrol was routine and lawful, aligning with U.S. and allied views that the strait is international waters. China’s show of force, following similar moves near Japan, underscores how the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait remain potential flashpoints that could spark conflict between China and Western-aligned powers.
  thehindu.com
  aljazeera.com
  (Al Jazeera is a global news network financed by the Qatari State.)
  
  

• Ukraine Frontline Flashpoint – Heavy fighting in eastern Ukraine continued as a focal flashpoint. Ukrainian forces pressed a counteroffensive in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, seeking to exploit reported Russian troop rotation gaps. Moscow responded with intensified shelling and drone swarms on Ukrainian cities (e.g. Odesa and Kharkiv), aiming to sap Ukrainian morale. NATO intelligence suggested neither side made decisive gains this week, but any sudden breakthrough or major incident – such as Russia’s use of a tactical nuclear threat or a strike near the Polish border – could internationalize the conflict. (Both Washington and Moscow insist they don’t seek direct confrontation, yet miscalculation remains a risk as this war zone defines East-West tensions.)
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• China says it chased off Philippine ship at Scarborough Shoal: Beijing’s coast guard claimed it “implemented control measures” to drive a Philippine vessel out of the disputed Scarborough Shoal on 20 June, an assertion Manila hasn’t yet commented on but that underscores the rising tempo of South China Sea confrontations.
  bloomberg.com

Terrorism & Conflict

• Militants Eye Pakistan–Iran Vacuum – Pakistan fears that if Iran grows destabilized from the Israel-Iran war, militant groups will thrive along their 900-km border. Sectarian Sunni extremists and Baluch separatists already operate on both sides of the frontier. Islamabad – already battling the Pakistani Taliban on its Afghan border – is alarmed that an Iran crisis would open a new sanctuary for jihadists and insurgents in the remote Iran–Pakistan borderlands. (The Jerusalem Post notes Pakistan’s sensitive position: it has unstable borders with Taliban-run Afghanistan and archrival India, and is desperate to avoid “another volatile frontier” with Iran.)
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• Niger raids ‘terror‑funding’ gold sites: Security forces killed 13 suspected militants and destroyed illegal mines believed to bankroll Islamic State and al‑Qaeda franchises, days after announcing a joint “Sahel shield” with Mali and Burkina Faso.

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• U.S. judge green‑lights hate‑crime case in Colorado firebombing: A federal court allowed prosecutors to pursue hate‑crime charges against Mohamed Sabry Soliman, who allegedly hurled Molotov cocktails at pro‑Israel demonstrators in Boulder on June 1, injuring eight; the Egyptian national also faces 118 state counts of attempted murder. 
  nbcnews.com

WMD & Cyber Warfare

• Iran Blackout Hides War Reality – Iran imposed an internet blackout, dramatically curtailing connectivity as Israeli airstrikes pummeled the country. The regime’s shutdown of mobile data and social media has left Iranians largely in the dark and “created an uneven picture” of the war with Israel. Tehran’s cyber curbs – ostensibly for security – also muzzle dissent and outside news, drawing condemnation from digital rights groups. (This echoes Iran’s past playbook of throttling the internet during crises to control the narrative and quash protests.)
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• Nuclear Fallout Fears in Iran – Experts are assessing potential radiation risks from military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Thus far Israel has targeted Iran’s centrifuge halls and missile sites, not reactors, minimizing radioactive release. But the IAEA is concerned: if sites like Bushehr reactor or heavy-water facilities were accidentally hit, it could spread contamination. Israel insists it is taking care to avoid nuclear accidents, and Iran has moved some sensitive materials to safer locations. Still, the specter of an environmental disaster looms over the conflict – a reminder of the war’s WMD dimension. Calls are growing for a temporary “nuclear safety” zone or UN monitors to ensure Iran’s atomic sites remain secure during the hostilities.

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• Iran boasts of firing hypersonic missiles—analysts skeptical – Tehran claims it has already launched Mach-15 weapons at Israel; independent experts and Western intel say no evidence has surfaced so far, warning the rhetoric may be psychological warfare. (AP – note: Iranian state media amplifies the claim, Israeli sources call it “propaganda”)
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• Israeli-linked ‘Predatory Sparrow’ hackers knock Iran’s Bank Sepah offline – The group said it wiped data from the state lender over its military ties; customers lost access and the bank’s website crashed, signaling cyber tit-for-tat alongside the shooting war.
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• Aflac reveals breach of U.S. customer data – The insurer said a “sophisticated cyber-crime group” accessed files with Social Security and health details on June 12; reviews are under way and regulators alerted.
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• Maritime watchdog warns of ship hijacks and ‘shadow fleet’ cyber risks – Norway’s Norma Cyber centre says 239 disruptive at-sea hacks in 2024–25 show rising danger of GPS jamming or remote-control takeovers, especially from Russia-linked actors and Iran’s oil “ghost tankers.” (The Guardian – UK outlet often critical of Western oil shipping; Norwegian officials corroborate the statistics)
  theguardian.com