Highlighted Works by Mackinder Forum Members

• Russia Is at War with the West
  Dr. Michaela Dodge
  National Institute for Public Policy – Information Series Issue No. 636
  September 11, 2025
  mackinderforum.org
  

• Edmund Walsh: Catholicism’s Foremost Geopolitical Realist of the 20th Century
  Francis P. Sempa
  Providence Magazine
  September 12, 2025
  providencemag.com
  

• Turbulence on the Caspian Sea: An Overlooked Driver of Energy and Trade
  Richard Kauzlarich
  The National Interest
  July 21, 2025
  nationalinterest.org

Weekly Geopolitical Bulletin (Sept 6–12, 2025)

Geoeconomics

• Oil Sanctions Rift: A widening U.S.-EU split emerged over Russian oil sanctions, as President Trump pressed India to halt Russian oil imports entirely – a stance at odds with the G7 price-cap scheme. Trump’s unilateral tariffs on New Delhi for its continued purchases underscored the breakdown in transatlantic coordination and threatened to slightly curtail India’s intake of Russian crude in October.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Tariffs as Leverage: Trump urged EU officials to impose tariffs up to 100% on China and India in a bid to cut Putin’s oil revenues. The proposal – targeting two top buyers of Russian oil – marked a sharp shift from Europe’s sanctions-first approach and came with U.S. assurances it would mirror the tariffs if Brussels agreed.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Expanding Russia Sanctions: Britain unveiled new sanctions on Sept. 12 targeting 70 ships carrying Russian oil and 30 firms supplying components for Russian weapons. Officials said the measures – prompted by a surge in Russian drone and missile strikes and a Russian drone’s violation of Polish airspace – aim to choke off funds for Moscow’s war while the UK bolsters military aid to Ukraine.
  www.reuters.com
  
  
• EU Trade Backlash: European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen used her State of the Union speech to defend a controversial July trade deal with Trump that scrapped EU tariffs on U.S. goods. Critics blasted the pact as one-sided in Washington’s favor, prompting von der Leyen to promise a focus on European competitiveness and resilience amid heightened transatlantic economic tensions.
  www.reuters.com
  
  
• Tariffs on Trial: The U.S. Supreme Court agreed to fast-track a challenge to Trump’s sweeping tariffs, which a lower court ruled exceeded his emergency powers. At issue is whether Trump lawfully invoked a 1977 law to levy broad import tariffs – a cornerstone of his trade agenda – or violated the Constitution’s limits on executive trade authority.
  www.reuters.com
  
  

Military Developments

• U.S. Defense Strategy Pivot: A leaked draft of the Trump administration’s new National Defense Strategy shifts focus from great-power conflicts to protecting the U.S. homeland and Western Hemisphere. The Pentagon plan – a dramatic reversal from prior strategies centered on China and Russia – would elevate domestic and regional missions above global deterrence, reflecting Trump’s demand that allies bear more defense burdens.
  koreajoongangdaily.joins.com
  english.almayadeen.net
  
  
• Ukraine Offensive Stalls: Russia’s much-hyped summer offensive in Ukraine failed to achieve any major breakthrough, with Russian forces gaining only about 0.3% of Ukrainian territory and failing to capture key cities. The costly campaign, marked by tens of thousands of Russian casualties, has shattered the myth of inevitable Russian victory and highlighted the limits of Moscow’s military power in Ukraine.
  atlanticcouncil.org
  
  
• Mass Strike on Kyiv: Russia launched its largest airstrike of the war against Kyiv over the weekend, setting Ukraine’s main government building ablaze and killing at least four people. Moscow fired a barrage of drones, missiles and artillery at Ukrainian cities and infrastructure in the assault – a dramatic escalation even as the Kremlin claimed it would not be swayed by looming new Western sanctions.
  reuters.com
  
  
• NATO Responds in Poland: In an unprecedented move, Poland shot down several suspected Russian drones that breached its airspace, with support from Dutch, Italian and NATO aircraft. Warsaw’s leaders called it the most dangerous spillover of the Ukraine war to date – Polish and allied jets scrambled overnight to intercept the drones, one of which crashed into a Polish village house, underscoring NATO’s resolve to defend its territory.
  reuters.com
  
  
• China’s Carrier Trial: China’s newest and most advanced aircraft carrier, the Fujian, transited the Taiwan Strait during sea trials ahead of its expected commissioning. The sailing – as U.S. and Japanese forces held drills nearby – showcased Beijing’s expanding naval reach around Taiwan, with the Fujian’s cutting-edge catapult system poised to extend the range of Chinese carrier-based warplanes and further intensify regional tensions.
  reuters.com
  
  

Political and Diplomatic Developments

• U.S. Scales Back NATO Aid: The Trump administration moved to end long-running U.S. security assistance programs in Europe, halting hundreds of millions in military aid aimed at fortifying NATO’s eastern flank. The decision – justified by Trump’s push for Europe to “step up” its own defense and shift U.S. focus toward China and homeland security – has alarmed NATO allies and baffled bipartisan U.S. lawmakers amid Russia’s war in Ukraine.
  washingtonpost.com
  
  
• Ukraine Peace Talks Stall: The Kremlin declared peace negotiations with Ukraine “on pause,” as Putin dug in on demands that Kyiv cede territory. President Trump – after a recent Trump-Putin summit in Alaska failed to yield progress – warned his patience with Putin was “running out fast” and threatened tougher sanctions if Russia doesn’t halt its offensive, even as Moscow refuses to stop its attacks during talks.
  lemonde.fr
  
  
• Taiwan Issues Warning: Visiting Washington, Taiwan’s top China policy official cautioned that Beijing is actively preparing for war to seize the island. Mainland Affairs Council Minister Chiu Chui-cheng told U.S. policymakers that if Taiwan were to fall, it would trigger a “domino effect” undermining regional security – directly threatening U.S. interests – and urged stronger support to deter China’s ambitions.
  www.reuters.com
  
  
• Sudan Ceasefire Push: The United States, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt jointly appealed for a three-month humanitarian truce in Sudan to enable urgent aid deliveries amid its brutal civil war. In a rare unified statement, the four influential nations – all key players with Sudan’s warring army and RSF factions – called on both sides to halt fighting and work toward a permanent ceasefire as humanitarian conditions deteriorate.
  reuters.com
  (original article in Arabic)
  
  
• South China Sea Tensions: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reaffirmed support for the Philippines and blasted China’s “destabilizing” plan to declare a marine reserve around the disputed Scarborough Shoal. Rubio’s statement – issued as Beijing tightens its grip on the reef – called China’s move a coercive bid to advance unlawful maritime claims, and he urged Beijing to heed a 2016 tribunal ruling that upheld Filipino fishing rights in the area.
  www.reuters.com
  
  

Geostrategic Flashpoints

• Drills on NATO’s Border: Russia and Belarus launched large-scale military exercises on NATO’s eastern flank, rattling the alliance’s front-line members. The Zapad-2025 drills – unfolding in Belarus just after Russian drones violated Polish airspace – have heightened tensions in Eastern Europe, with nearby NATO states on alert amid Moscow’s efforts to project force despite its heavy engagement in Ukraine.
  lemonde.fr
  
  
• U.S. Strike in Caribbean: The U.S. military blew up a boat in the southern Caribbean on suspicion of drug smuggling, killing 11 people in an operation President Trump touted as a blow to Venezuela’s Tren de Aragua gang. The unprecedented use of force in international waters has drawn scrutiny in Washington: officials provided little evidence of the boat’s contents or crew, prompting legal concerns that Trump is testing the limits of presidential power and international law.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Kosovo Mediation Freeze: The United States suspended its strategic dialogue with Kosovo, citing actions by Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s caretaker government that have inflamed tensions with the Serb minority. Washington’s unusually blunt move – after Kurti resisted EU-endorsed plans for a Serb autonomous association – underscores Western frustration at the stalled Serbia-Kosovo normalization efforts and marks a new low in U.S.-Kosovo relations.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Bering Sea Standoff: U.S. and Russian vessels shadowed each other near strategic Arctic waters, as both countries staged rival naval exercises near Norway (an emerging flashpoint amid receding sea ice). The close encounters – coming during Trump and Putin’s talks in Alaska – highlighted the growing militarization of the Arctic, with NATO and Russia each asserting their presence along potential new shipping lanes.
  newsweek.com
  
  

Terrorism and Conflict

• Boko Haram Massacre: Boko Haram militants killed over 60 people in a nighttime assault on Darul Jamal village in northeast Nigeria’s Borno state. Residents said fighters went house-to-house executing men and burning homes – just weeks after displaced families had resettled there – illustrating the Islamist insurgency’s enduring threat despite Nigerian military operations in the area.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Sudan’s Drone War: Researchers revealed that Sudan’s paramilitary RSF used long-range Iranian-made “kamikaze” drones in a major May assault, pointing to a dangerous escalation in its war against Sudan’s army. The appearance of drones with a 2,000 km range – not previously seen in the RSF’s arsenal – has raised fears the conflict could intensify further, exacerbating what has become one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises as foreign actors fuel the fighting.
  reuters.com
  
  
• UN backs Palestinian statehood resolution; Israel calls it “theater.” The UN General Assembly approved a resolution supporting Palestinian statehood and implementation of a two‑state solution; Israel denounced the move as political theater amid mounting diplomatic fallout. (Source: Israeli outlet Jerusalem Post live updates, which may reflect Israeli official framing.)
  jpost.com
  
  

WMD & Cyberwarfare

• North Korea’s ICBM Advance: North Korean leader Kim Jong Un oversaw a successful test of a powerful new solid-fuel ICBM engine, hailing it as a “significant change” in expanding Pyongyang’s strategic arsenal. State media reported the motor – more potent than previous models – has completed ground trials, paving the way for a new Hwasong-20 intercontinental missile that Kim claims will bolster North Korea’s nuclear deterrent against the U.S..
  apnews.com
  
  
• Vietnam Data Breach: Vietnam’s government disclosed that hackers infiltrated the national credit bureau’s database, potentially stealing sensitive personal and financial records on millions of borrowers. The cyberattack – attributed to the notorious “Shiny Hunters” group known for targeting global tech firms – prompted an urgent investigation by Vietnam’s cybersecurity agency, though officials said credit systems remain operational as the scope of the breach is assessed.
  reuters.com
  
  
• UK Retailer Reels from Hack: Marks & Spencer announced the departure of its chief digital officer following a cyberattack that had crippled the retailer’s online operations earlier in the year. The May breach, which the company estimated could cost up to £300 million in lost profit, highlighted the growing financial fallout of cyberattacks on major businesses and prompted an overhaul of M&S’s technology leadership to strengthen its digital defenses.
  reuters.com