Highlighted Works by Mackinder Forum Members

• Ukraine Must Strike the Russian Shadow Fleet
  Michael Hochberg
  Longwalls (Substack)
  October 6, 2025
  substack.com
• The Declining Dollar’s Impact on U.S. Sanctions Enforcement
  Punit Oza
  Mackinder Forum
  October 3, 2025
  mackinderforum.org

Weekly Geopolitical Bulletin (October 4-10, 2025)

Geoeconomics

• Trump Threatens Tariffs as China Tightens Rare Earth Controls: U.S. President Donald Trump warned of a “massive” hike in tariffs on Chinese imports and said there was “no reason” to meet President Xi Jinping, after Beijing dramatically expanded export curbs on rare earth metals. China’s move to restrict rare earth shipments (vital for high-tech and defense) prompted Trump to consider canceling a planned Trump–Xi summit in Seoul. Markets tumbled on fears of a rekindled trade war as Trump’s threats raised the specter of a tit-for-tat tariff spiral, reversing the tentative U.S.–China thaw earlier signaled by both sides.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Oil Prices Plunge on Gaza Ceasefire and Supply Easing: Global oil benchmarks fell to multi-month lows after Israel and Hamas agreed to a Gaza ceasefire, slashing the geopolitical “risk premium” in crude prices. Brent sank ~3% below $64 (the weakest since early June), with U.S. WTI dropping under $60 (a five-month low). Analysts noted the truce reduces immediate risks of wider Mideast disruptions – President Trump’s brokered ceasefire calmed fears of Iranian proxy attacks on oil shipping. Oversupply concerns are also reemerging: OPEC+ is unwinding production cuts and agreed a modest output hike for November, adding barrels to the market. Traders remain wary, however, that a prolonged U.S. government shutdown could sap economic activity and oil demand in coming weeks.
  reuters.com
  
  
• IMF: Global Growth Resilient but Downside Risks Loom – Gold Hits Record High: IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the world economy is faring “better than feared” in 2025, projecting only a slight growth slowdown – yet she warned “exceptional uncertainty” and dominant downside risks mean “don’t get too comfortable.”. In a pre-Annual Meetings speech, Georgieva noted global growth ~3% is below pre-pandemic trends and flagged concerns from trade tensions to high debt. Safe-haven demand has surged: gold prices smashed through $4,000/oz for the first time this week. The metal’s haven appeal – boosted by the U.S. budget impasse (the government shutdown entered a second week) and bets on Fed rate cuts – has driven a 45% YTD jump in gold. The IMF urged policymakers to bolster economic buffers and said central banks must stay vigilant in case inflation reignites (e.g. from new tariffs).
  reuters.com
  
  
• U.S. Sanctions Chinese Firms over Iran Oil, Drawing Beijing’s Ire: Washington imposed sweeping sanctions on some 100 entities, ships and individuals – including a Chinese “teapot” refinery (Shandong Jincheng) and a port terminal – for handling Iranian oil in violation of U.S. bans. The U.S. Treasury said Iran’s illicit oil sales fund its nuclear and missile programs and regional militancy. China’s government blasted the sanctions as “illegal unilateral” interference in normal trade and vowed to “resolutely safeguard” Chinese companies’ rights. The move (the fourth U.S. sanctions round targeting Chinese buyers of Iranian crude) comes even as Iran signaled support for the Israel–Hamas ceasefire deal. President Trump said he “would like to see [Iran] rebuild” economically but insists Tehran “can’t have a nuclear weapon.” The clash underscores how geoeconomic tools like energy sanctions are inflaming U.S.–China tensions, even amidst delicate Middle East diplomacy.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Yen & Euro Slump on Policy and Political Turmoil: The Japanese yen and euro both slid to their weakest levels in months, roiled by divergent factors. The yen suffered its steepest weekly drop in a year (~3.5%), breaching ¥152/$, as prospects for a Bank of Japan rate hike receded and a surprise political shake-up in Tokyo added uncertainty. Japan’s finance minister issued rare verbal warnings amid speculation of possible yen-buying intervention. Meanwhile the euro hit a two-month low (~$1.156) and headed for its worst week since 2024, hurt by France’s government crisis and broader eurozone jitters. French President Emmanuel Macron’s struggle to appoint a new prime minister (amid budget deadlock and a looming deficit blowout) rattled confidence in the euro. With the U.S. dollar gaining on safe-haven flows, traders are watching whether European authorities might respond to stem their currencies’ slides.
  reuters.com
  
  

Military Developments

• Russia Batters Ukraine’s Energy Grid Ahead of Winter: Russia unleashed a massive wave of strikes across Ukraine this week targeting power infrastructure, in what appears to be a renewed winter air campaign. In an overnight nationwide assault on Oct 10, over 450 Iranian-made drones and 30 cruise missiles rained down, plunging parts of Kyiv and nine other regions into darkness. In Kyiv, 270,000 households lost power after explosions rocked the capital – the largest attack on Ukraine’s grid in months. Ukraine’s Energy Ministry said Russia abruptly shifted strategy to hit natural gas facilities (key for heating) as well as power plants. President Zelenskiy condemned the “terrorist” tactics, noting that Moscow is again trying to weaponize winter cold against civilians, and implored Western allies to rush more air defenses. Ukrainian officials reported at least 12 civilian deaths (including a 7-year-old boy in Zaporizhzhia) and dozens of injuries from the barrage. While power was largely restored within a day – a testament to Ukraine’s improved grid resilience – the attacks foreshadow a grim winter: Russia appears poised to systematically target Ukraine’s energy infrastructure as it did last year, to sap Ukrainian morale. NATO countries are expediting delivery of spare transformers, generators and anti-drone systems to help Ukraine get through the winter. The humanitarian stakes are high; last year’s strikes caused rolling blackouts and misery, though Ukraine did not capitulate. With peace talks stalled, Putin seems intent on using darkness and cold as weapons once more.
  theguardian.com
  washingtonpost.com
  
  
• North Korea Displays Military Might, Vows to Counter U.S.: Pyongyang held a massive military parade on Oct 10 marking the ruling Workers’ Party’s 80th anniversary, unveiling new weaponry and underscoring Kim Jong Un’s defiant stance. Ahead of the parade, Kim vowed “additional military measures” to respond “in direct proportion” to the U.S. military buildup in South Korea. South Korean intelligence indicated North Korea might showcase its next-generation Hwasong-20 ICBM and possibly conduct a missile test around the anniversary. Kim has also been tightening military ties with Russia – even reportedly sending North Korean munitions and personnel to aid Russia’s Ukraine war – and recently traveled to Beijing to deepen his strategic alignment with Xi and Putin. The parade, laden with advanced missiles and drones, highlights the growing security challenge North Korea poses as it seeks to deter the U.S. and boost its leverage.
  apnews.com
  
  
• “Golden Dome” Missile Defense Push in U.S.: The Pentagon is accelerating efforts to bolster homeland missile defenses amid advances by Russia, China and North Korea in strategic weapons. A new Missile Defense Agency initiative – dubbed “Golden Dome for America” – is upgrading early-warning radars to better classify warheads and decoys in flight. This week a U.S. government RFI (Request for Information) sought software enhancements (AOC 1.1) for long-range radars in Alaska, Greenland, Britain and California to improve discrimination of real warheads versus decoys during a missile’s midcourse phase. President Trump has championed an “iron-clad shield” against hypersonic and ballistic threats. The move comes as Moscow and Beijing expand their nuclear arsenals and “exotic” weapons; the U.S. hopes upgraded sensors and AI will boost interception odds. Analysts note, however, that sophisticated countermeasures could still challenge any missile shield – underscoring the “highly complex” race between offensive and defensive systems.
  newsweek.com
  
  
• U.S. Adds Pakistan to Multinational Missile Deal, Spurs Clarification: In an understated development, Pakistan was quietly included in a $2.5 billion U.S. contract for AIM-120 AMRAAM air-to-air missiles – marking a warming of defense ties after years of strain. The contract modification, disclosed by the U.S. Department of War (DoW), added Islamabad alongside 30+ allies to orders for the latest AIM-120C8/D3 missiles. The move followed a July White House meeting between President Trump and Pakistani PM Shehbaz Sharif, and comes as Pakistan recently supplied the U.S. with rare earth mineral samples in a new trade deal. However, the news sparked concern in neighboring India and confusion in the press – prompting the U.S. Embassy in New Delhi to clarify that no “new” missiles are being delivered to Pakistan. The Embassy stressed this was a sustainment and spares contract update, not a fresh sale, calling some reports “false”. (Pakistani F-16s already use earlier AMRAAMs.) The episode highlights improved U.S.–Pakistan military ties under Trump – yet also Washington’s caution to avoid upsetting India, as New Delhi had blasted any notion of new missile transfers to its rival.
  ndtv.com
  timesofindia.indiatimes.com
  
  
• NATO Stages Nuclear Drill as Deterrence Signal: The NATO alliance will kick off its annual “Steadfast Noon” nuclear exercise on Oct 13, hosted by the Netherlands with 14 nations and 70+ aircraft (including dual-capable fighter jets) participating. NATO Secretary-General (and former Dutch PM) Mark Rutte said the drill “sends a clear signal to any adversary” of the alliance’s resolve and readiness to protect all Allies against all threats. Bases in Belgium, Britain and Denmark will also be involved in the routine deterrence exercise, which practices deploying NATO’s nuclear capabilities (without live weapons) and responding to nuclear scenarios. While Moscow routinely denounces such drills as provocative, NATO noted this year’s Steadfast Noon comes amid cooled nuclear rhetoric – President Putin recently extended a New START warhead cap – but also against the backdrop of Russia’s war in Ukraine. The exercise underscores NATO’s emphasis on credible nuclear deterrence, even as it stresses that no actual nukes will be used during the training.
  reuters.com
  
  

Political and Diplomatic Developments

• Israel–Hamas Ceasefire Deal Ends Gaza War: After nearly two years of fighting, Israel and Hamas agreed to a ceasefire and hostage exchange deal brokered by the U.S. (President Trump) and regional mediators. Under the breakthrough agreement – ratified by Israel’s cabinet on Oct 9 – Hamas will release all remaining hostages (including dozens of Israelis) in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, and Israel will pull back its troops from southern Gaza to a specified line. The truce, which took effect Oct 10, requires Hamas to cede governance of Gaza to other Palestinian entities as part of a U.S.-backed peace framework. President Trump hailed the deal as bringing “everlasting peace” and promised a Marshall Plan-style reconstruction for Gaza funded by wealthy Gulf states. The implementation is phased: a 4-day initial ceasefire (extendable) is allowing humanitarian aid into Gaza, and a second phase addressing Hamas’ disarmament is to follow. The accord marks the most significant diplomatic breakthrough yet in the conflict. The UN, Egypt and Qatar praised it as a “historic opportunity” to end the bloodshed, though many challenges remain – including how Gaza will be governed post-war and ensuring hardliners on both sides comply with the fragile truce.
  aljazeera.com
  (Al Jazeera is a global news network financed by the Qatari State).
  
  
• Japan’s Ruling Coalition Collapses Over New Leader: Tokyo was thrown into political turmoil after the junior partner in Japan’s government quit the coalition, protesting the hardline policies of new LDP leader Sanae Takaichi. Takaichi, a populist “fiscal dove” and security hawk, won the Liberal Democratic Party presidency in a surprise intra-party vote – positioning her to become prime minister. However, the Buddhist-influenced Komeito party (LDP’s ally for 26 years) balked and “pulled its support,” forcing a postponement of the parliamentary confirmation vote that had been set for Oct 15. The unprecedented breakup leaves the LDP short of a majority and complicates Japan’s governance at a time of economic strain. Komeito cited concerns that Takaichi’s agenda (including big defense spending and hints at revising Japan’s pacifist constitution) lacked consensus and could alienate moderates. Takaichi called for negotiations to rebuild a coalition, but snap elections are now possible if deadlock persists. The political uncertainty rattled markets – contributing to the yen’s slide – and could delay important budget bills. Observers note that if Takaichi does take office, she’d be Japan’s first female premier, but her path to power has been derailed by this schism. The LDP is reportedly wooing small opposition parties as potential new partners to cling to power.
  reuters.com
  
  
• France in Political Crisis as Macron Seeks New PM: President Emmanuel Macron is grappling with a governance crisis in France after the collapse of his coalition government. France has had no prime minister since last month’s shock resignation of PM Élisabeth Borne, and Macron’s centrist party lacks a parliamentary majority to pass the 2026 budget. This week Macron convened emergency talks with party leaders across the spectrum ahead of an Oct 10 “self-imposed deadline” to name a new premier. The central bank warned that the political paralysis – coming amid needed fiscal belt-tightening – is eroding economic confidence. Opposition factions are bitterly divided: the left demands a U-turn on pension reforms, while the right presses for tougher migration curbs, complicating Macron’s search for a consensus PM. Media report Macron is considering a technocrat or even a surprise figure from outside politics to lead a “government of national unity.” Meanwhile, crucial legislation (including the budget and energy subsidy plans) is stalled. If Macron fails to appoint a broadly acceptable prime minister, he may be forced to call snap legislative elections – a risky move that polls suggest could bolster the far-right. European partners are watching closely, as France’s domestic impasse could hamstring EU decision-making (Macron canceled a planned summit trip due to the crisis). By week’s end, no new PM had been announced, and Macron’s office said talks would continue into next week, underscoring the depth of France’s political gridlock.
  apnews.com
  
  
• U.S. and Brazil Thaw Relations After Tariff Spat: Ties between Washington and Brasília showed signs of improvement as President Trump and Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva held a friendly video call and agreed to meet in person soon. This marked a sharp turnaround – relations hit a low after Trump slapped sweeping 50% tariffs on Brazilian goods in July (on top of existing tariffs) to pressure Brazil over the jailing of former president Jair Bolsonaro. The punitive tariffs had slashed Brazilian coffee exports to the U.S. by 70% and also hurt beef shipments, driving up U.S. retail coffee prices. In the Oct 6 call, Lula urged Trump to remove the “unfair” tariffs, and Trump appointed Secretary of State Marco Rubio to negotiate a solution with Brazilian officials. Both leaders struck a positive tone – Trump tweeted the call was “very good, focused on trade,” and Lula’s office highlighted plans for further talks and direct communication channels. Analysts say Trump appears to be “smelling the coffee” (literally) as U.S. companies complain of costlier beans. Additionally, the U.S. quietly removed visa sanctions on Brazilian officials (imposed over Bolsonaro’s case) and suggested it may review the Magnitsky sanctions on a Brazilian judge. The détente comes as Brazil’s cooperation is key on Amazon climate efforts and BRICS dynamics. While significant differences remain – Lula opposes U.S. extraterritorial sanctions and maintains ties with Venezuela and China – the thaw indicates both sides seek pragmatic reset. Brazilian markets reacted optimistically to news of a potential Trump–Lula meeting, hoping for a rollback of the steep tariffs that have dented Brazil’s economy.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Peru’s President Ousted Amid Corruption Furor: Political turbulence hit Peru as unpopular President Dina Boluarte was impeached and removed by Congress in an overnight session, just 10 months into her term. Lawmakers voted 64–0 (with Boluarte allies absent) to oust her on grounds of “moral incapacity” – a constitutional term often used for corruption or misconduct. Boluarte, Peru’s first female leader, had single-digit approval ratings and faced graft allegations including the so-called “Rolexgate” scandal over luxury watches. The final straw came after a high-profile shooting at a concert on a military base (injuring members of a famous band), which fueled public anger over rising crime that her government struggled to contain. Within an hour of the impeachment vote, Congress swore in its speaker José Jeri as Peru’s new president. In his inaugural address, the 38-year-old Jeri declared “war on crime,” vowing a tough crackdown on gangs and corruption to restore public order. He is Peru’s seventh president in 9 years, reflecting the country’s chronic political instability. While many Peruvians celebrated Boluarte’s exit (she was linked to over 50 protester deaths in unrest last December), others worry constant presidential ousters impede reform. Jeri must now form a cabinet and try to govern with the same fractured Congress that ousted his predecessor – all under Peru’s volatile politics where no elected president has finished a term since 2018.
  reuters.com
  
  

Geostrategic Flashpoints

• Taiwan Warns of China’s “Sudden” Attack Drills and Hybrid Warfare: A new biennial defense report from Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense sounded the alarm over intensifying Chinese military pressure – including the possibility Beijing could “shift a drill into an attack” with little warning. The report notes the PLA has staged at least 7 rounds of major wargames around Taiwan since 2022 and is now routinely conducting “joint combat readiness” patrols and “grey zone” operations near the island. China’s coast guard has expanded activities and may coordinate with the navy in a future blockade or assault scenario. Taipei also highlighted Beijing’s “hybrid warfare”: cyber attacks, disinformation campaigns, and even AI-driven psychological ops aimed at eroding Taiwanese public trust in their government. Notably, the report warns that the PLA might use exercises as cover to suddenly launch real strikes – for instance, massing forces under the pretext of drills then executing a surprise amphibious landing or missile barrage. Taiwan’s military is on heightened vigilance around its Oct 10 National Day (last year China fired missiles right after the holiday). While Taiwan sees no imminent invasion, the trends are concerning: China is rapidly modernizing for a potential “short, sharp war”. In response, President Lai Ching-te pledged to accelerate a “Taiwan Shield” air defense system and acquire more asymmetric weapons (mines, anti-ship missiles) to raise the costs of any Chinese aggression.
  military.com
  aljazeera.com
  
  
• Turkey’s Drones Stoke Balkan Flashpoint (Serbia–Kosovo): A flare-up in the Western Balkans has drawn attention to a potential flashpoint: Serbia and Kosovo are at odds after Turkey supplied Kosovo with a fleet of armed drones. In early October, Kosovo took delivery of several dozen Bayraktar “Skydagger” drones from Turkey under a 2024 defense pact – significantly boosting the lightly armed nation’s capabilities. Serbia (which does not recognize Kosovo’s independence) reacted furiously: President Vučić accused Turkey of “violating UN resolutions” and trying to tip the military balance, calling the drone transfer “a direct threat to regional peace.” Belgrade briefly put some forces on alert. Ankara insists it’s merely a commercial arms sale, noting Serbia itself had earlier shown interest in Turkish drones. After urgent talks, Vučić softened his rhetoric – praising Erdoğan and admitting Serbia had long known about Kosovo’s drone deal. However, underlying tensions remain high. Kosovo’s Prime Minister Kurti hailed the drones as making the Kosovo Security Force “more capable with modern tech”, and Serbia worries the drones could be used if border clashes erupt. NATO’s peacekeeping mission (KFOR) is monitoring closely. The episode highlights how external military support (in this case, Turkey’s growing role) can inflame Serbia–Kosovo frictions. Western diplomats have urged calm, and for now both sides appear to be stepping back from escalation – but the Balkans retains the potential for dangerous miscalculations.
  nordicmonitor.com
  
  
• Egypt–Ethiopia Nile Dam Feud Reignites Amid Floods: Seasonal Nile floods have triggered a blame game between Egypt and Ethiopia over the giant Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Blue Nile. In the past week, late-season floodwaters swamped parts of northern Egypt’s Nile Delta and displaced 1,200 families in Sudan, exacerbating an already dire situation in war-torn Khartoum. Egypt accuses Ethiopia of “reckless unilateral” dam management – claiming Addis Ababa’s sudden water releases after the GERD’s completion in September caused a “man-made late flood.” Cairo says Ethiopian authorities unexpectedly tripled outflows (to ~780 million cubic meters/day on Sept 27) without coordination, straining Sudan’s Roseires Dam and overwhelming downstream protections. Ethiopia flatly rejects this, calling Egypt’s allegations “malicious and baseless” and asserting that its regulated dam operations reduced flooding compared to uncontrolled flows. The GERD – Africa’s largest dam – is now fully operational after Ethiopia unilaterally finished filling it (a point of contention). The dispute had seen a lull in talks earlier this year, but these floods have revived tensions: Egyptian media and politicians are angrily demanding international intervention, while Ethiopia insists it will not “cede its rights” to use Nile waters for development. Diplomatic efforts are underway (the African Union has urged compromise on dam flow agreements). Without a deal, however, the risk of a wider crisis persists – as both nations view Nile water access as existential. Sudan, caught in between and mired in civil war, is suffering the consequences of this upstream-downstream impasse.
  reuters.com
  
  

Terrorism and Conflict

• Pakistani Taliban Ambush Kills 11 Soldiers Near Afghan Border: In one of Pakistan’s deadliest militant attacks this year, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) fighters ambushed a military convoy in North Waziristan, killing at least 11 security personnel (9 soldiers and 2 officers). The sophisticated attack on Oct 4 involved roadside IED blasts obliterating vehicles, followed by heavy gunfire from scores of insurgents. The TTP – emboldened by the Afghan Taliban’s 2021 victory – has escalated its insurgency in Pakistan’s northwest: more than 400 Pakistani troops have died in attacks this year. The army said it killed 4 militants in retaliatory fire but acknowledged others escaped into the rugged border region. This clash comes amid soaring violence along the Pakistan–Afghanistan frontier. Islamabad has complained that the Afghan Taliban is harboring the TTP, a charge Kabul denies. In response to the bloodshed, Pakistan’s military launched new search operations in Waziristan and reiterated its “zero tolerance” for cross-border terrorism. However, analysts warn the TTP’s guerrilla tactics – and Pakistan’s political turmoil – make it difficult to stem these attacks. The U.S. and UN condemned the convoy ambush, urging Pakistan and Afghanistan to collaborate against the common extremist threat.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Nigeria: Troops Repel Jihadist Attack in Borno, Suffer Losses: The Nigerian Army foiled a major assault by Boko Haram/ISWAP insurgents on a base in Borno state, but at least four soldiers were killed and five wounded in the firefight. Militants mounted a coordinated nighttime attack on Oct 9 near Ngamdu, deploying rocket-propelled grenades, multiple IEDs, and even armed drones against the base’s defenses. Nigerian troops, reinforced by a brigade quick reaction force, managed to repel the onslaught after hours of combat – the army claimed around 15 attackers were neutralized as they retreated. Nonetheless, the incident underscores the enduring threat in the northeast: over 330 Islamist attacks have occurred in 2025 so far (nearly on pace with last year’s total), per ACLED conflict data. Boko Haram and its offshoot Islamic State West Africa Province have intensified raids on military outposts in recent months, likely seeking weapons and propaganda wins. The Nigerian military launched new “Operation Hakorin Damisa IV” in September to disrupt insurgent strongholds in the Sambisa Forest and Lake Chad region. While officials report some success (dozens of militants killed, arms caches seized), this week’s Ngamdu battle shows the jihadists remain lethal and adaptive – using technologies like small bomb-dropping drones. With the Sahel’s instability spilling over, Nigeria’s government faces growing pressure to end the 14-year insurgency that has killed over 35,000 people and displaced 2 million.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Sudan’s Civil War Grinds On, Humanitarian Crisis Deepens: The 18-month war between Sudan’s army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) shows no sign of abating, as fighting intensifies in Khartoum and Darfur with catastrophic impacts on civilians. This week the army launched air and artillery strikes on RSF-held districts of Omdurman (Khartoum’s twin city), while the RSF tightened its siege on government bases in the capital. In Darfur’s Geneina and Nyala, ethnic massacres and scorched-earth tactics by RSF-aligned militias continue to be reported by fleeing refugees. The UN warns Sudan now faces “the world’s fastest-growing humanitarian crisis”: over 5 million displaced (mostly women and children), and parts of West Darfur are in famine-like conditions after aid agencies withdrew. A late-September U.S.-Saudi mediated ceasefire collapsed within days, and peace talks in Addis Ababa have stalled as both General al-Burhan (army) and General Dagalo “Hemedti” (RSF) insist on military solutions. Regional spillover is worsening – Chad and South Sudan are overwhelmed by Sudanese refugees, and arms are flowing to both sides despite a UN embargo. Notably, Ethiopia’s Nile dam releases contributed to flooding in Sudan’s Khartoum state this month, compounding the misery. Diplomats fear Sudan could become a “failed state” like Somalia if the war drags into 2026. International calls for accountability grew louder after reports of mass graves in Darfur (hundreds of non-Arab civilians allegedly killed by RSF). However, the latest UN Security Council meeting produced only a statement of concern, as global divisions persist. For millions of Sudanese, daily life is hellish – shortages of food, water, medicine, and the ever-present danger of gunfire or shelling. The collapse of Sudan – once Africa’s third-largest country – is a slow-motion catastrophe with no end in sight.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Myanmar Junta Airstrike Kills Civilians at Festival: Myanmar’s military junta committed a mass-casualty atrocity on Oct 6, bombing a crowd of civilians gathered for a Buddhist festival in Sagaing Region. Using a motorized paraglider (paramotor) aircraft, the army dropped two 120mm mortar shells on a candlelit Thadingyut (Festival of Lights) vigil in Bone Toe village, killing over 40 people and badly wounding ~50 more. Witnesses described a horrifying scene of mutilated bodies, including children under 10 and teachers participating in the peaceful anti-regime protest that coincided with the religious event. The junta’s spokesperson bizarrely claimed the gathering was a “rebel meeting,” but local and exile media insist it was mostly villagers celebrating the holiday. This deliberate strike on civilians drew international outrage: UN officials and rights groups labeled it a likely war crime, noting the attack appeared aimed at instilling terror (coming on a sacred day when families were praying). Myanmar’s military has increasingly used air power to crush resistance in its civil war, often with devastating tolls – such as an April strike on a Sagaing village hall that killed 130. Despite global condemnation, the junta seems undeterred; it has intensified offensives in Sagaing and Karen states to uproot pro-democracy People’s Defense Forces (PDFs). Over 4,100 civilians have been killed in Myanmar’s conflict since the 2021 coup, according to ACLED data, many from indiscriminate air and artillery strikes. The U.S., EU, and ASEAN all condemned the Oct 6 massacre and renewed calls for a ceasefire, but Myanmar’s generals have shown little interest in negotiations. As one analyst put it: “The junta is doubling down on brutality to break civilian support for the resistance – unfortunately, it’s only strengthening resolve against them.”
  csw.org.uk
  
  

WMD & Cyberwarfare

• North Korea flaunts missiles amid grand anniversary parade: Nuclear-armed North Korea staged a massive nighttime military parade in Pyongyang to mark the 80th anniversary of its ruling Workers’ Party. Kim Jong Un used the event – attended by high-ranking Chinese, Russian, and other foreign delegations – to boast of the country’s rising global stature and military might. Observers noted the parade was closely watched for the debut of a new solid-fuel intercontinental ballistic missile capable of reaching the U.S. mainland, underscoring Pyongyang’s continued advancement of its nuclear delivery systems despite international sanctions.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Putin downplays treaty limits amid new weapons drive: Russian President Vladimir Putin said an arms race is already underway and confirmed Moscow is developing new strategic nuclear weapons. Speaking at a summit in Tajikistan, he suggested it would be “not a big deal” for Russia if the U.S. refuses to extend the New START treaty’s warhead limits due to expire in February. Putin did express it would be unfortunate to lose the last major US-Russia arms control pact, and reiterated that Russia is open to extension if Washington agrees. He also hinted that unnamed countries are considering nuclear tests and warned that Russia would respond in kind, a stance that analysts say further raises the stakes for global arms control.
  newsweek.com
  
  
• Mass hack of Oracle clients exposes scope of cyber extortion: Cybersecurity experts revealed a large-scale hacking campaign by the Clop ransomware gang targeting Oracle’s popular E-Business Suite software. Google’s Threat Analysis Group and Mandiant found that attackers exploited a zero-day vulnerability over the past few months to steal vast amounts of customer data from numerous organizations. Initial assessments indicate “dozens of organizations” were compromised – with the possibility of over 100 victims – mirroring Clop’s past extortion sprees that hit hundreds of companies. Oracle has confirmed that some clients received extortion emails related to the breach and issued patches for the flaws, highlighting the growing threat posed by financially motivated hackers to enterprise platforms.
  cyberscoop.com
  
  
• Chinese state-linked hackers infiltrate major US law firm: A prominent Washington, D.C. law firm, Williams & Connolly, disclosed that state-sponsored hackers breached its network via a novel software exploit. The attackers accessed a “small number” of attorneys’ email accounts, though an internal investigation with cybersecurity firm CrowdStrike found no evidence that confidential client files were stolen. While the firm’s statement did not publicly attribute blame, The New York Times reported that Chinese government-linked hackers were responsible. The incident – following similar hacks on other U.S. law firms – underscores that elite legal and consulting firms have become attractive targets for cyber-espionage, given their access to sensitive political and business information.
  securityweek.com
  
  
• Poland warns of surging Russian cyberattacks on infrastructure: Poland’s government raised alarm over an intensifying wave of Russian cyber aggression against its critical infrastructure amid Warsaw’s support for Ukraine. The digital affairs minister cited intelligence that Russia’s military hackers have tripled resources devoted to Polish targets this year and are attempting thousands of intrusions daily. Of roughly 170,000 cyber incidents logged in the first nine months of 2025, a large portion have been attributed to suspected Russian actors, shifting focus from earlier targets like water systems to now include the energy sector. Polish officials say Moscow is treating Poland as its primary NATO-target for destabilization, though the Kremlin routinely denies orchestrating hacks. The warning comes after a major September cyberattack coincided with a Russian drone incursion, illustrating the hybrid tactics being used against NATO states.
  reuters.com