Highlighted Works by Mackinder Forum Members
Weekly Geopolitical Bulletin (Oct 25–31, 2025)
Geoeconomics
- US–China Trade Truce Framework: Top U.S. and Chinese officials agreed on a framework deal to avert a trade war ahead of a Trump–Xi meeting in South Korea. Washington shelved a looming 100% tariff on Chinese goods while Beijing will delay its rare-earth export curbs by a year. China also signaled plans to resume buying U.S. soybeans and potentially U.S. energy, reflecting a tentative thaw in the tariff standoff. (Observers note that Reuters’ reporting is fairly neutral on the deal, whereas The Guardian emphasizes broader global relief at avoiding an “all-out trade war”.)
theguardian.com
reuters.com
- US–Vietnam Trade Agreement: The U.S. and Vietnam announced a new framework for a “reciprocal, fair and balanced” trade pact, capping months of talks. Under the deal, the U.S. will maintain a 20% tariff on most Vietnamese imports but identify certain products for zero tariffs, while Vietnam pledges “preferential access” for U.S. goods. Vietnam also agreed to reduce non-tariff barriers and boost purchases of U.S. items (including 50 Boeing aircraft and $2.9 billion in farm goods) to narrow its $99 billion trade surplus with the U.S.. The agreement is seen as Washington’s bid to diversify supply chains away from China, and was broadly welcomed despite Vietnam’s one-party system (which some U.S. observers remain wary of).
reuters.com
- Europe Holds Rates Amid Tariffs: The European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged at 2.0% this week – its third straight hold – citing eurozone inflation back near 2% and better-than-feared economic resilience. ECB President Christine Lagarde noted Europe’s modest 0.2% growth in Q3 and coped with new U.S. import tariffs, saying “the economy has continued to grow despite the challenging global environment”. She warned of “uncertain” prospects given “ongoing global trade disputes”. (Notably, AP reports European businesses are weathering President Trump’s 15% tariff on EU goods better than expected, though the drag on German industry keeps growth subdued.)
wpxi.com
- Oil Slumps Despite Conflict Fears: Oil prices are on track for a third monthly decline, as a strong U.S. dollar, weak Chinese factory data, and rising output from major producers outweigh Middle East tensions. Brent crude hovered around $65/barrel – down ~2.6% in October – even as Western sanctions disrupted some Russian exports. OPEC+ members are leaning toward a small production boost at their upcoming meeting, given ample supply and to cushion any war-related shocks. U.S. officials also touted a Chinese pledge to consider “a very large” purchase of American oil and gas (e.g. from Alaska), although analysts doubt Chinese demand will rise significantly.
reuters.com
- New Sanctions Squeeze Russia: In the wake of stalled Ukraine peace efforts, the U.S. imposed its first new sanctions on Russia since Trump’s return to office, targeting oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil. The October 22 measures (coordinated with a 19th EU sanctions package banning Russian LNG imports) aim to cut Kremlin revenues and signal U.S. resolve after Moscow rejected a ceasefire. The sanctions briefly spiked oil prices by $2 as Chinese and Indian buyers scrambled for non-Russian supply. Washington also floated leveraging frozen Russian assets to fund Ukrainian defense, and is urging EU allies to “make the next move” with more pressure. (Note: Reuters’ coverage is factual, while policy analysts like Steptoe point out the domestic U.S. debate and European hesitations.)
steptoe.com
reuters.com
Military Developments
- Ukraine: Battles Rage in Donetsk – Heavy fighting escalated around the strategic eastern city of Pokrovsk. Russian forces have committed ~11,000 troops in a bid to encircle the Ukrainian-held city, and have used infantry ambushes and drones to sever supply lines. President Zelenskiy warned Pokrovsk is currently “the most difficult” sector of the 1,200-km front, as Moscow concentrates its largest offensive there. Open-source analysts caution the situation is “on the verge of critical” for Ukraine, with small Russian units infiltrating the outskirts; Kyiv may need to deploy a full brigade to prevent a collapse. (Russia’s Putin claimed his troops have surrounded Pokrovsk and nearby Kupiansk, but Ukraine’s military dismissed that as “fantasies”.) The battle’s outcome could shape the next phase of the war, potentially giving Moscow a platform to advance deeper into Donetsk if Pokrovsk falls.
reuters.com
- Israel–Gaza Ceasefire Under Strain: Three weeks into a U.S.-brokered ceasefire halting the two-year war between Israel and Hamas, sporadic violence is testing the truce. Israeli forces carried out limited strikes and shelling in northern Gaza for a fourth day, killing at least 3 Palestinians, even as officials insist they remain committed to the ceasefire. The flare-up came after a Palestinian gunman killed an Israeli soldier, to which Israel “retaliated” with bombardments. Under the fragile ceasefire deal, Hamas released all living hostages in exchange for nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners, and Israel withdrew its troops from Gaza. Tough issues – like Hamas’s disarmament and Gaza’s future governance – were deferred, and frequent skirmishes underscore the risk of the conflict reigniting despite both sides’ exhaustion.
reuters.com
- North Korea’s Missile Provocation: North Korea test-fired a volley of long-range sea-launched cruise missiles on Oct. 28, coinciding with President Trump’s visit to South Korea for the APEC summit. The missiles flew for over two hours along a preset route before striking their targets, according to Pyongyang’s state media. A senior North Korean official hailed “important successes” in developing the country’s nuclear forces through such tests. Trump, asked about the launch, remarked that the U.S. “at some point… will meet with North Korea” – hinting at future talks. South Korea’s military tracked the missiles and is analyzing details. The test – coming as global leaders convened nearby – underscores the persistent threat from North Korea’s advancing arsenal, even while Kim Jong Un stayed out of the spotlight during the launch.
reuters.com
Political and Diplomatic Developments
- EU Parliamentarian Warns of Islamist Influence: Italian MEP Isabella Tovaglieri sparked debate by filming a warning video in front of a massive mosque construction site in Strasbourg, France, alleging it is a Turkish-backed Islamist “political project” rather than a mere place of worship. The Grand Eyyûb Sultan mosque – set to be Europe’s largest, with capacity for 4,000 – is funded by Millî Görüş, a pan-European Turkish Islamist group tied to Turkey’s President Erdoğan and linked by French intelligence to the Muslim Brotherhood. “This is not integration… it’s a battle of civilization that we risk losing if Europe does nothing,” Tovaglieri declared, claiming the mosque (just 6 km from the EU Parliament) is being built “totally out of the state’s control” with Turkish trucks and money. (Middle East Forum, a conservative think-tank known for scrutinizing Islamist activities – their reporting emphasizes the threat of Muslim Brotherhood influence. Other observers argue the mosque’s supporters see it as serving France’s Muslim community, and warn that anti-Islamist alarmism could fuel social tensions. Nonetheless, French officials have indeed voiced concern about foreign funding of such projects.)
meforum.org
- Ivory Coast Election – Ouattara’s Landslide: Côte d’Ivoire’s President Alassane Ouattara, 83, secured a fourth term in office with a staggering 89.8% of the vote in the Oct. 25 election. The outcome was widely expected after authorities barred the strongest opposition figures (ex-President Laurent Gbagbo and ex-minister Tidjane Thiam) from running, leaving only minor candidates. Turnout was barely 50% – far lower than a decade ago – amid public apathy and perceptions that “there was no point in voting” since the playing field was skewed. Ouattara’s main opponent, ex-First Lady Simone Gbagbo, got just 2.4% and phoned Ouattara to concede. European and AU observers noted the calm voting process but also the lack of genuine competition. Ouattara promised this seven-year term will be his last and that he will “pass the torch to the next generation” – a pledge greeted skeptically by some Ivorians, given his previous term-limit maneuvers.
reuters.com
- Cameroon’s Biya Declares Victory, Unrest Flares: In Cameroon, Paul Biya – the world’s oldest head of state at 92 – was declared the winner of the Oct. 12 presidential election, extending his 43-year rule. Official results gave Biya 53.7% to opposition leader Issa Tchiroma Bakary’s 35.2%. Tchiroma rejected the outcome as fraudulent, having earlier proclaimed himself the victor, and protests erupted in multiple cities. In the economic hub Douala, opposition supporters barricaded streets with burning tires and clashed with security forces firing tear gas. At least four people were killed over the weekend in post-election violence, according to opposition sources, and Tchiroma says two demonstrators were shot dead outside his northern home on Monday. Biya appealed for calm, expressing “sorrow” for the deaths while insisting Cameroonians had “placed their trust” in him yet again. Analysts note growing “regime fatigue” even within Cameroon’s youthful security forces – raising questions about how long Biya can maintain his grip if unrest endures (as one expert told Reuters: popular rejection of the result is so widespread that the government “cannot see [him] lasting much longer” if crackdowns continue).
reuters.com
- APEC Summit – Xi Fills a U.S. Void: At the APEC summit in South Korea, Chinese President Xi Jinping took center stage promoting multilateral trade, after President Trump made only a brief appearance to clinch the trade truce and then departed. As soon as Air Force One left, Xi “held court” with regional leaders – a split-screen moment symbolizing China stepping into a leadership role in Asia-Pacific economic integration while the U.S. retreats. Xi told APEC delegates that Beijing would “practice true multilateralism” and uphold WTO trade rules, implicitly contrasting China’s stance with Trump’s “America First” tariffs and bilateral deal-making. Many Asian countries, however, remain wary: Xi’s calls for free trade ring hollow to some neighbors given China’s own coercive trade tactics and military assertiveness in the region. Notably, Trump skipping most of APEC marks a sharp break from past U.S. engagement – a move that Reuters and others frame as ceding influence to Beijing. (Chinese state media heralded Xi’s leadership at the forum, while U.S. officials downplayed Trump’s absence, saying America still prefers one-on-one trade deals over large multilateral accords.)
reuters.com
- UK Resets Syria Policy – Delists HTS: In a controversial diplomatic shift, Britain removed Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) – a jihadist group formerly affiliated with al-Qaeda – from its list of banned terrorist organizations this week. London said the move is intended to facilitate “closer engagement” with Syria’s new transitional government and advance UK interests in counterterrorism. (Unconfirmed reports suggest HTS figures have joined a coalition governing parts of Syria after the fall of the Assad regime, prompting Western countries to adjust.) The UK stressed it will “continue to press for genuine progress” and judge Syria’s leaders by their actions against terror. Critics warn that legitimizing HTS – which has a history of extremism – risks emboldening Islamist hardliners. British officials privately argue that realpolitik necessitated the delisting, given HTS’s de-facto authority on the ground and its recent clashes with ISIS and regime remnants. Other Western nations have not yet followed suit, and some human rights groups are alarmed, calling for guarantees that HTS renounces terrorism if it’s to be treated as a political partner.
steptoe.com
Geostrategic Flashpoints
- Chinese Bombers Drill Near Taiwan: Just days before the Trump–Xi meeting, China’s military conducted high-profile “confrontation drills” near Taiwan, sending multiple H-6K strategic bombers and J-10 fighters to simulated strike missions around the island. Chinese state media publicized the exercise as a show of force testing capabilities like air blockade operations. Taiwan’s defense ministry denounced the report as a “propaganda… intimidation” effort aimed at sowing fear. Taipei noted no unusual spike in actual incursions (just four Chinese aircraft on Oct 26), suggesting Beijing exaggerated the scale. Still, the bomber drill – and a Chinese official’s concurrent call for “peaceful reunification” – underscore Beijing’s muscular posture on Taiwan even as Xi met Trump. U.S. officials tried to reassure Taiwan that no concessions were made in the Trump–Xi talks, but the region remains tense as China regularly flexes its air and naval power.
reuters.com
- North Korea’s Threat Posture: (See Military Developments above for North Korea’s missile test.) The cruise missile launch highlighted Pyongyang’s continued weapons progress amid stalled diplomacy. U.S. allies in Tokyo and Seoul quietly worry that North Korea may also be preparing a satellite launch or even a nuclear test – though none occurred this week – to gain leverage. With Trump indicating openness to meet Kim Jong Un “in the not too distant future”, regional watchers are bracing for a possible return to high-stakes summits.
reuters.com
- Armenia–Azerbaijan Historic Peace: In a remarkable turn, Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced that “peace… is now a reality” between Armenia and Azerbaijan after decades of conflict. At the Paris Peace Forum, Pashinyan hailed a U.S.-brokered agreement – the two sides signed a Washington declaration – as a “historic transformation” allowing the South Caucasus to finally pursue economic cooperation and prosperity. Under the deal, Armenia and Azerbaijan recognized each other’s territorial integrity and agreed to reopen transport links that have been blocked since the Nagorno-Karabakh wars. He credited President Trump’s personal engagement for achieving what many thought impossible. EU leaders (like Estonia’s Kaja Kallas) also voiced strong support for the normalization process. While some Armenians remain bitter over concessions – especially after last year’s loss of Karabakh – Pashinyan is urging his public to embrace peace as the only path forward. International observers call this peace push a “game changer” for the Caucasus, if it holds.
massispost.com
- East Med & Middle East Flashpoints: With the Israel–Hamas ceasefire tenuously holding, broader regional flashpoints saw diplomatic activity. The Israel–Lebanon monitoring committee met more frequently to prevent Hezbollah-Israel skirmishes from escalating. And in Syria, a new interim government (formed after Assad’s ouster) engaged in talks with Turkey and Arab states to stabilize the country – including negotiations over Turkish forces’ withdrawal from northern Syria. Tensions between the U.S. and Iran persisted, but Tehran and Washington hinted at openness to direct diplomacy to avoid miscalculations. Gulf states, led by Qatar and Saudi Arabia, stayed focused on humanitarian aid to Gaza and Sudan, trying to leverage their ties to de-escalate those crises.
understandingwar.org
Terrorism and Conflict
- Darfur Carnage – “A True Genocide”: In Sudan’s western Darfur region, the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) overran the city of El-Fasher after an 18-month siege – and proceeded to massacre civilians on a horrifying scale. Medics and rights groups report at least 1,500 people were killed in just three days as RSF fighters captured El-Fasher (Oct 26–29), shooting civilians fleeing and even executing patients in a hospital. The Sudan Doctors Network described it as “a true genocide” and evidence (including Yale satellite analysis) shows mass graves and bloodstains where bodies lay. Regional Arab states – including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar and Turkey – have condemned the atrocities, and the UN is receiving “alarming reports” of systematic executions, ethnic killings and sexual violence by RSF forces. The fall of El-Fasher gives the RSF near-total control of Darfur, effectively partitioning Sudan. Observers fear a repeat of Darfur’s 2000s genocide: the RSF (heir to the Janjaweed militias) seems intent on “extermination” of groups perceived as loyal to Sudan’s army. International pressure is mounting for a war crimes investigation, but with Sudan’s civil war raging on, justice remains distant.
aljazeera.com
- Narco-Terrorism Accusations – US vs. Colombia: In a highly unusual move, the United States sanctioned Colombia’s sitting president Gustavo Petro for allegedly abetting narcotraffickers – straining counterterror and counternarcotics cooperation. On Oct 24, the U.S. Treasury designated Petro (and close family) under drug kingpin authorities, claiming he “has allowed drug cartels to flourish” under the guise of his “total peace” policy and failed to stop cocaine production. Washington’s hard line – championed by hawks in Congress – came after repeated spats (Petro had angered U.S. officials by urging Latin American militaries to defy Trump’s orders and by halting joint aerial drug interdictions). Petro blasted the sanctions as a violation of Colombia’s sovereignty and has pivoted closer to other leftist governments for support. This unprecedented targeting of a key U.S. ally’s leader has rocked the U.S.–Colombia alliance, with analysts warning it could backfire by undermining intelligence-sharing against the ELN and dissident FARC groups (which the U.S. considers terrorists). The episode reveals a deep rift over how to handle Colombia’s insurgents and cartels – a rift that adversaries like Venezuela or China might exploit diplomatically.
steptoe.com
- Islamic State Kidnaps American in Niger: Elsewhere, ISIS-K (the Afghanistan branch of IS) continued its terror campaign – though on a smaller scale this week. Afghanistan’s Taliban rulers, despite being foes of ISIS-K, have struggled to fully contain the group. In Iraq and Syria, ISIS remnants are also trying to regroup: the U.S.-led coalition announced the capture of a senior ISIS bomb-maker in eastern Syria, part of ongoing efforts to prevent an ISIS resurgence. And in West Africa’s Sahel, militants linked to Islamic State kidnapped an American aid worker in Niger’s capital Niamey – the first such abduction of a U.S. citizen there. U.S. officials believe IS-Sahel was involved and have dispatched special forces to assist in rescue efforts. This alarming incident in Niger (already under a junta and grappling with insurgency) underscores that despite being off front pages, jihadist terrorism remains a global scourge requiring vigilance.
criticalthreats.org
WMD & Cyberwarfare
- Global Cyber Alarm over Chinese Espionage: A coalition of Western intelligence agencies issued a stark alert this week about “Saltwater Typhoon”, an ongoing Chinese cyber campaign that reportedly infiltrated infrastructure in 50+ countries including telecomm networks, utility grids and government systems. U.S. officials say this sweeping espionage effort by China’s state-sponsored hackers may have “netted data from every single American” through sustained breaches of telecom and cloud providers. The NSA and allies urged companies to harden defenses, warning that China’s cyber units have the ability to disrupt water, energy and transit systems in a conflict scenario. Beijing’s foreign ministry angrily denied the accusations and in turn accused the U.S. of extensive hacking of Chinese targets. Western cybersecurity firms and agencies present detailed evidence of Chinese advanced persistent threats (APTs) in these systems, whereas Chinese state media calls such reports hypocritical, citing Snowden revelations of U.S. spying and labeling this a smear campaign amid U.S.-China tech tensions.
atlanticcouncil.org
- Tehran Condemns US Call to Resume Nuclear Testing: In the U.S., political debate stirred as President Trump mused about potentially resuming U.S. nuclear testing after a 30-year moratorium – a stance that drew condemnation from arms control advocates and Iran (which called it hypocritical of Washington to consider tests while accusing others of nuclear ambitions).
aljazeera.com
- Ongoing Cyber War in Ukraine: Cyber experts report that Russian state-backed hackers (notably the GRU’s Sandworm unit) are still actively infiltrating Ukrainian networks to spy and potentially sabotage critical systems. A new investigation by Symantec’s Threat Hunter Team uncovered multi-month intrusions in which suspected Sandworm actors planted custom webshell malware on Ukrainian organization servers and then used “living off the land” tactics (legitimate admin tools) to maintain stealthy access. Sandworm, which in past years caused blackouts by hacking Ukraine’s power grid and even hit satellite modems at war’s outset, appears focused now on gathering intelligence and laying groundwork for possible disruptive attacks this winter. Ukrainian IT defenders, bolstered by Western cybersecurity aid, have improved resilience – for instance, no major grid outages from cyberattacks have occurred this fall despite frequent phishing and malware attempts. However, the persistent breaches show the cyber front is very much active. Russia’s use of dual-use tools and fileless malware makes attribution tricky, but Western governments (US, UK) publicly attributed recent hacks to Sandworm and warned companies to harden defenses. Concurrently, Ukrainian “IT Army” hacktivists have struck back at Russian targets (telecom and rail systems), though legal experts debate the status of such operations under international law.
security.com
lordslibrary.parliament.uk
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