Highlighted Works by Mackinder Forum Members

• Trump’s Gaza Ceasefire: Fragile Peace or a Pause Before the Next War
  Dr. Jeffrey D. McCausland
  Mackinder Forum
  October 19, 2025
  mackinderforum.org
  
  

Geopolitical Weekly Bulletin (Oct 18-24, 2025)

Geoeconomics

• Oil Shock as Russia Sanctioned: The U.S. imposed sweeping sanctions on Russian oil giants Rosneft and Lukoil, sending crude prices surging 5% to two-week highs. Chinese and Indian refiners scrambled to find alternative supplies after Washington warned buyers risk exclusion from Western finance. OPEC signaled readiness to offset any shortfall by easing production cuts, while Moscow blasted the move as “pressure” that it vowed to resist. Western officials frame the sanctions as belated leverage to starve Putin’s war machine of revenue, whereas Russian sources downplay the impact (Putin insisted the economy won’t bow to pressure) and point out that covert oil exports will continue despite higher costs.
  reuters.com
  
  
• EU Tightens Screws on Russia (and China): The EU adopted its 19th sanctions package against Russia, banning Russian LNG imports by 2027 and blacklisting entities from China and Central Asia accused of helping Moscow. Two Chinese refiners and a trading firm were added to the sanctions list, prompting an angry response from Beijing that the EU was “weaponizing” trade. Brussels also barred dealings with Rosneft and Gazpromneft and moved to limit Russian diplomats’ movements in Europe. EU leaders hail the package as closing loopholes and increasing pressure on Putin’s war economy. Chinese officials, however, condemn the inclusion of Chinese companies as “illicit” extraterritorial sanctions, warning it sets a dangerous precedent for EU-China relations.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Rare Earths as Trade Leverage: China’s exports of rare earth magnets plunged 6% in September, a trend that has reignited fears Beijing will weaponize its dominance of critical minerals. The drop – coming just before China expanded export license controls on more rare earth elements – suggests bureaucratic delays and tighter scrutiny are already pinching global supply. U.S. officials suspect Beijing might renege on a June agreement and use rare earth curbs to pressure Washington ahead of the Trump–Xi summit. Chinese officials defend their export licensing as a “sovereign right”, accusing the U.S. of “stoking panic” and vowing to approve genuine civilian-use orders. Western industries and defense experts counter that China’s moves “weaponize supply chains” and underscore the need for allied nations to develop alternate sources for these strategic materials.
  cnbc.com
  
  
• U.S. Reverses Arrow Electronics China Trade Blacklist Decision: In a rare retreat, Washington removed export curbs on Arrow Electronics’ China affiliates after discovering they were erroneously sanctioned. The Colorado-based distributor had been blacklisted on Oct. 8 for allegedly supplying drone parts to Iran-backed militias, but the Commerce Department acknowledged a mistake and lifted the restrictions on Oct. 19. Arrow praised the reversal, saying it complies with all laws and can resume China trade immediately. U.S. officials cast this as proof that sanctions are “targeted to protect national security” while avoiding unintended harm. Chinese media seized on the U-turn as evidence that Washington’s export controls lack clear standards and can unfairly ensnare legitimate businesses, fueling Beijing’s calls for more “stable and fair” trade rules.
  reuters.com
  
  
• China Unveils Tech-Focused 5-Year Plan: Beijing released its 2026–2030 economic blueprint, doubling down on high-tech manufacturing and “hard” infrastructure while pledging to “significantly” boost household consumption. President Xi Jinping emphasized breakthroughs in semiconductors, EVs and rare earths to secure China’s supply chains, even as the plan tilts toward industrial growth over consumer spending. Officials insist they will raise the share of consumption in GDP over the next five years, and China’s central bank vowed pro-growth monetary policy to support the effort. Chinese state media celebrate the plan as a visionary push for tech self-reliance and “strategic high ground” in a decoupling world. Many Western economists are skeptical, noting that unless China addresses weak consumer confidence (amid youth unemployment and property woes), its promised consumption boom may not materialize – potentially leaving an imbalanced economy despite tech gains.
  reuters.com
  
  

Military Developments

• Ukraine’s War – Drones and Dilemmas: Fighting in Ukraine ground on with Russian drone and missile strikes killing civilians even as Kyiv hit back with its own drones. In one incident, a Russian Shahed drone attack killed two Ukrainian journalists in Kramatorsk – an act President Zelenskyy denounced as a war crime. Ukraine, for its part, launched drones deep into Russia, igniting a fire at a Ryazan oil refinery and blowing up an ammunition depot in Belgorod region. These dueling strikes highlight a war of attrition that’s increasingly reliant on UAVs. Potential bias: Russian state media routinely claim their strikes target only military infrastructure, ignoring evidence of civilian tolls. Ukrainian and Western sources emphasize Russia’s brutality (pointing to attacks on reporters and power grids) while portraying Ukraine’s drone forays as precision hits on legitimate targets – though some voices worry such attacks on Russian soil could risk escalation if not carefully calibrated.
  aljazeera.com
  (Al Jazeera is a global news network financed by the Qatari State.)
  
  
• Taiwan Bolsters U.S. Defense Ties: Facing stepped-up Chinese military pressure, Taiwan announced plans to deepen security cooperation with the United States. A defense ministry report outlined more joint drills, reciprocal troop visits, and intelligence-sharing to improve readiness in the Taiwan Strait. Taipei noted that China’s air force now conducts “normalized” patrols that intrude into Taiwan’s air defense zone almost daily – part of Beijing’s “gray zone” tactics. The new measures aim to “jointly maintain peace and stability” by further integrating U.S. and Taiwanese forces. U.S. officials quietly welcome Taiwan’s proactive approach and frame it as prudent planning under the existing One China policy. China’s government, however, blasted the announced steps as “collusion” and external meddling, warning that closer U.S.–Taiwan military ties risk crossing Beijing’s red lines and could prompt “decisive” countermeasures – a reminder of the constant balancing act over Taiwan’s defense.
  reuters.com
  
  
• U.S. Carrier Deployed to Counter Narco-States: In a surprise move, Washington ordered the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group to the Caribbean, dramatically escalating its military presence near Venezuela. The Pentagon said the deployment – adding to eight warships and a submarine already in the region – is aimed at disrupting drug trafficking networks after U.S. forces carried out 10 lethal strikes on suspected smuggler vessels since September. But the show of force comes amid surging tensions: Venezuela’s President Maduro raged that any U.S. intervention would spark “millions…with rifles” in an insurrection, and Washington even slapped sanctions on Colombia’s leftist President Petro for alleged cartel ties. U.S. officials depict the buildup as a legitimate anti-crime mission that will “bolster regional security”, though some American lawmakers worry it edges toward gunboat diplomacy. Caracas and its allies call it a thinly veiled attempt at regime change intimidation, invoking Latin America’s history of U.S. interventions to rally nationalist sentiment against the “yankee” threat.
  reuters.com
  
  

Political and Diplomatic Developments

• Trump Scraps Putin Summit Amid Stalled Peace: U.S. President Donald Trump abruptly canceled a planned Budapest summit with Russia’s Vladimir Putin, citing “lack of progress” in efforts to end the Ukraine war. Trump told reporters that after optimistic talks over the summer, Putin hadn’t taken “enough action” toward peace, so “it just didn’t feel right” to meet now. Instead, the White House toughened its stance – unveiling new sanctions on Russian oil exports the same day as a form of pressure. Many in Washington interpret the cancellation as Trump bowing to critics who warned his eagerness to deal with Putin was undermining Ukraine. Russian officials, for their part, expressed “regret” and accused the U.S. of bad faith, insisting they remain open to talks but only if “the West gets serious about Russia’s security concerns.” Both sides publicly leave the door open for a future Trump-Putin meeting, yet the collapse of this summit underscores the deep mistrust hampering any near-term diplomatic breakthrough.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Zelenskyy Rallies Allies in Europe: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy undertook a diplomatic blitz, urging Western partners to step up support as the war enters a grinding second winter. In Brussels, he implored EU leaders to use frozen Russian Central Bank assets (over $300 billion) to fund aid and weapons for Ukraine. And at a London meeting of the “Coalition of the Willing,” Zelenskyy pressed for more long-range missiles – even as U.S. President Trump still balks at providing Tomahawk cruise missiles. European officials voiced “absolute clarity” that progress on repurposing Russian funds must happen by year’s end. Eastern European countries echo Zelenskyy’s call, arguing that Russia should foot the bill for rebuilding Ukraine and that more deep-strike arms are needed to break stalemate. But some Western European voices quietly express fatigue and legal qualms – Belgium, for instance, has reservations about siphoning frozen assets. Still, the public messaging from the EU remains one of resolve, even as Zelenskyy’s appeals highlight that Ukraine’s fate hinges on sustained (and perhaps expanded) external commitments.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Pakistan–Taliban Ceasefire Eases Border Crisis: After a week of intense clashes on the Afghanistan–Pakistan frontier, the two neighbors agreed to an immediate ceasefire during Doha peace talks mediated by Qatar and Turkey. The deal – struck by Pakistan’s defense minister and the Afghan Taliban’s acting defense chief – paused the worst fighting since the Taliban took Kabul in 2021, fighting that included Pakistani airstrikes on TTP militant camps inside Afghanistan and deadly cross-border raids. Both sides pledged not to support armed groups hostile to the other, and follow-up meetings are scheduled in Istanbul to solidify terms. Pakistani officials frame the truce as conditional – Kabul must now “rein in proxies” (the Pakistani Taliban) or risk future strikes. The Taliban regime, while publicly agreeing to deny havens to militants, maintains it wasn’t aiding them to begin with and gripes about Pakistani “misinformation.” International observers cautiously welcome the ceasefire as a chance to avert a new regional war, though many remain skeptical that Islamabad and the Taliban can sustain peace given deep mutual distrust and the TTP’s ideological zeal.
  reuters.com
  
  

Geostrategic Flashpoints

• Turkey Pounds Kurdish Militants Post-Bombing: Following an early October suicide blast in Ankara, Turkey has intensified airstrikes on PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party) targets in northern Iraq and Syria. Turkish officials say dozens of militants were killed in a new wave of drone and jet strikes – 59 PKK fighters “neutralized” in one overnight operation, according to Ankara’s figures. President Erdoğan vowed to “never cease” attacking the outlawed PKK, even as the group’s imprisoned leader Abdullah Öcalan appealed for a ceasefire. Turkey’s strikes – which extended into Syrian Kurdish-held areas – drew condemnation from regional Kurdish authorities, who say civilians are among the dead. Potential bias: Turkey portrays these operations as legitimate self-defense against “terrorists” after the bombing at its Interior Ministry (claimed by the PKK). Kurdish activists and some human rights groups argue Erdoğan is using the incident as a pretext to crack down broadly on Kurdish autonomy efforts, noting that U.S.-backed Syrian Kurdish forces fighting ISIS were also hit. With peace talks long moribund, this flare-up underscores that Turkey’s 40-year conflict with the PKK remains a volatile fault line, one entangled with Syria and Iraq’s security as well.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Balkans on Edge – Serbia/Kosovo Tensions Simmer: In the Balkans, long-festering Serbia–Kosovo frictions threatened to escalate after a deadly shootout last month between Serb gunmen and Kosovo police in the north. Serbia massed additional troops and armor near the Kosovo border (prompting NATO to deploy reinforcements to its KFOR peacekeeping mission). Belgrade insists it has no interest in war but refuses to recognize Kosovo and has bristled at Kosovo’s ethnic Albanian leadership asserting control in Serb-majority areas. High-level EU-mediated talks have stalled, with Brussels openly warning that “there is no alternative to normalizing relations” to avoid conflict. Potential bias: EU and U.S. diplomats blame nationalist rhetoric on both sides – particularly Serbia’s President Vučić – for raising the temperature, and they urge renewed dialogue on the compromise autonomy plan. Serbian media, close to Vučić, emphasize alleged provocations by Kosovo (like armed police operations in Serb villages) and tout Belgrade’s ties with Russia and China as a counterweight to Western pressure. Kosovo’s government, meanwhile, feels vindicated by Western statements that Serbia orchestrated the recent violence, yet Pristina is also under subtle pressure from its allies to show flexibility.
  press.un.org
  
  
• Chinese fighter drops flares near Australian P-8 in ‘unsafe and unprofessional’ encounter A P‑8A Poseidon on routine patrol over the South China Sea was intercepted by a People’s Liberation Army Air Force jet that released flares dangerously close to the aircraft, prompting Australia to label the action “unsafe and unprofessional”. China defended the move, accusing the Australian plane of intruding into airspace near the Paracel Islands and insisting its response was lawful and restrained.
  news.usni.org
  
  

Terrorism and Conflict

• 83 Arrests in Landmark African Operation Against Terror-Financing: A six-country operation, coordinated by INTERPOL and AFRIPOL, resulted in 83 arrests and 160 persons of interest identified as part of “Operation Catalyst” targeting terrorism financing across Africa. The investigation uncovered approximately USD 260 million in both fiat and virtual assets tied to fraud, money-laundering, cyber-enabled scams and illicit transfers, with around USD 600,000 already seized. The success highlights how financial crime, cybercrime and counter-terrorism units were brought together in a unified effort — a first for the continent in tackling the growing nexus of illegal finance and extremist networks.
  interpol.int
  
  

• Northeast Nigeria Insurgency: In Nigeria, troops repelled simultaneous attacks by Islamist insurgents using armed drones and heavy weapons in four northeastern districts. The army killed about 50 of the militants during the clashes, thwarting the coordinated assault on its positions in Borno and Yobe states.
  reuters.com
  
  

WMD & Cyber Warfare

• China and Russia Deploy “Sex Warfare” to Infiltrate Silicon Valley:  Espionage experts say Chinese and Russian operatives are using romantic relationships and social engineering—what’s been dubbed “sex warfare”—to access U.S. tech firms and extract sensitive intellectual property. The tactics include fake LinkedIn outreach, startups pitch competitions on U.S. soil, and even long-term relationships culminating in marriage to enable infiltration. U.S. national-security officials warn that this shift from traditional spycraft to civilian-front operations presents a serious blind spot for the innovation economy.
  thetimes.com
  
  
• Iran Buckling Under Renewed Sanctions: Iran’s economy is spiraling toward a crisis as United Nations sanctions – snapped back into force by Western powers – tighten an already choking financial noose. Officials and analysts warn of a looming double shock of hyperinflation and severe recession that is eroding living standards and could stoke unrest. Tehran’s clerical rulers have convened emergency meetings on how to avert economic collapse after talks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal fell apart. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has flatly rejected a new offer from President Trump to negotiate a fresh agreement, even as the Iranian rial plunges to record lows and inflation tops 40%. Hardliners claim the U.S. and its allies are fueling “economic warfare” to destabilize Iran, pointing to Israel’s covert strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and Washington’s expanded oil export sanctions. Iran is leaning on a “resistance economy” of smuggling, domestic production, and trade with China and Russia, but experts doubt those lifelines can compensate for lost oil revenue and banking isolation. With public anger simmering over soaring prices and joblessness, Iran’s security apparatus is on alert – the regime knows that economic pain ignited nationwide protests in the past, and fears history could repeat if relief doesn’t come.
  reuters.com
  
  
• North Korea Missile Provocation: Pyongyang test-fired multiple short-range ballistic missiles this week in a show of force just days before a major Asia-Pacific summit in South Korea. The launches – North Korea’s first since May – came as U.S. President Trump prepares to visit Seoul for the APEC forum, where he is expected to meet South Korea’s new president and potentially China’s Xi Jinping. South Korea’s military said the missiles, fired from near Pyongyang, violated UN bans but did not pose an immediate threat to U.S. forces. Washington denounced the tests as “unlawful and destabilizing,” urging Kim Jong Un to refrain from further provocations. The timing suggests Pyongyang is seeking attention and leverage ahead of the high-profile Trump–Xi meeting, reminding regional powers of its disruptive capabilities amid stalled denuclearization talks.
  reuters.com