Highlighted Works by Mackinder Forum Members

• Europe Is Losing the Chips Race
  Chris Miller & John Allen
  Foreign Affairs
  October 16, 2025
  foreignaffairs.com
  
  

Geopolitical Weekly Bulletin (Oct 11–17, 2025)

Geoeconomics

• Oil Sanctions and Trade Tensions: The United States imposed sweeping new sanctions targeting over 50 entities involved in Iran’s oil trade – including Chinese firms and a major port terminal – in a bid to choke off funds to Tehran’s nuclear and missile programs. China’s government blasted the move as “unilateral and illicit,” vowing to protect its companies and continue “legitimate” energy cooperation with Iran. This fourth round of U.S. sanctions on Chinese oil buyers this year has disrupted crude supply chains – spot tanker freight rates jumped on fears of port congestion – and further strained Beijing-Washington ties ahead of a planned Trump–Xi summit. Potential bias: Chinese state media portrays the sanctions as illegal meddling in China’s energy security, whereas U.S. officials frame them as necessary enforcement to curb Iran’s revenue for weapons programs.
  energynewsbeat.co
  
  
• Trump to Meet Xi – US–China Thaw? After months of tariff escalations, Washington and Beijing are poised for a high-profile encounter. The White House confirmed that President Trump will visit South Korea on Oct. 29–30 and is expected to hold a long-awaited summit with China’s President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the APEC forum in Seoul. U.S. officials hope the meeting will defuse trade tensions – Trump himself admitted that his threatened 100% tariffs on all Chinese imports are “not sustainable” for the U.S. economy. In the lead-up, negotiators have exchanged offers: Washington hinted it might delay or reconsider the November tariff hike if China addresses certain concerns (such as recent rare earth export curbs), while Beijing sent signals it could increase purchases of U.S. goods. Potential bias: U.S. media frame the planned Trump–Xi talks as a chance to reset the bilateral relationship and avert further economic damage. Chinese state outlets have been cautiously optimistic but insist that Washington show “sincerity” – blaming the U.S. for “stoking panic” in markets and reiterating that Beijing won’t negotiate under threat. Both sides’ messaging suggests an understanding that a stable U.S.–China rapport is crucial, yet domestic politics (Trump’s hardline stance and Xi’s nationalist rhetoric) could limit breakthroughs.
  reuters.com
  
  
• IMF Warns on Global Debt and Trade War Risks: An IMF report sounded the alarm that worldwide public debt will exceed 100% of GDP by 2029 – the highest since 1948 – unless countries cut deficits and build fiscal buffers. The Fund cautioned that rising interest rates and demands from wars, disasters, and aging populations could trigger a fiscal-financial “doom loop” if debt isn’t curbed. Notably, the IMF flagged a renewed U.S.-China trade war as a serious downside risk, after Trump’s new tariffs and Beijing’s retaliatory curbs emerged post-forecast. The warning carries geopolitical significance: heavily indebted nations (including U.S., China, Italy, Japan) may face constrained responses to future crises, while emerging economies with less fiscal space risk debt distress and instability. The prospect of a protracted trade war compounds these dangers by hurting growth and tax revenues globally. The IMF’s call for prudence and cooperation underscores how economic security (through debt sustainability) and geopolitical stability (through trade détente) are now deeply intertwined.
  reuters.com
  
  
• China’s Five-Year Plan Prioritizes Tech Self-Reliance Amid Rivalry: As Beijing convened a Communist Party plenum to chart its 2026–2030 economic blueprint, officials indicated China will double down on high-tech manufacturing and industrial “hard power” to counter intensifying U.S. rivalry. Draft plans emphasize boosting production of semiconductors, EVs, rare earths and other strategic sectors, even as China grapples with deflation, local debt, and weak consumer demand. This geoeconomic strategy – essentially prioritizing supply-side strength over stimulating consumption – reflects Beijing’s resolve to secure the “strategic high ground” in a decoupling world. Geopolitically, it means China will continue leveraging export curbs (like rare earth controls) and massive state support for tech industries to outlast U.S. sanctions and trade barriers. While this playbook could prolong China’s domestic imbalances (weak consumer spending, youth unemployment), it bolsters its capacity to weather external pressure and project economic influence via supply chains. The plan’s success or failure will influence global power balances, from chip supply security to alliance dynamics in the Indo-Pacific, as nations react to a more self-sufficient (but less import-hungry) Chinese economy.
  reuters.com
  
  

Military Developments

• Ukraine: Missiles and Meetings: High-stakes diplomacy over advanced weapons is unfolding in the Ukraine war. Russian President Vladimir Putin warned U.S. President Trump against supplying Tomahawk cruise missiles to Kyiv, just as Ukraine’s President Zelensky arrived in Washington for talks. After a “very productive” call with Putin – in which Trump agreed to meet Putin again in Budapest – the White House appeared to shelve immediate plans to give Ukraine the long-range missiles. Moscow welcomed Trump’s hesitation, with Russian commentators calling it a “positive development” that stabilizes the situation. Meanwhile Zelensky publicly urged continued U.S. aid, noting that Russia “rushes to negotiate whenever it hears about Tomahawks” and cautioning against rewarding Kremlin pressure. Potential bias: Russian state media praised Trump for effectively taking Tomahawk deliveries “off the table” and echoed the view that such arms would be “dangerous and destabilizing”. In contrast, Ukrainian and Western observers worry that Putin’s threats swayed U.S. decisions, potentially emboldening Moscow by delaying critical support to Ukraine.
  independent.co.uk
  tass.com
  
  
• Shake-Up in China’s Military Elite: Beijing purged two of its highest-ranking generals in an anti-corruption blitz that also shores up President Xi’s control. General He Weidong – the vice-chair of the Central Military Commission (and China’s No.2 military officer) – and Admiral Miao Hua were expelled from the Communist Party and stripped of their positions on graft charges. He Weidong, a Politburo member and longtime Xi ally, is the most senior PLA figure ousted since the Cultural Revolution, and had not been seen publicly since March. China’s defense ministry lauded the expulsions as a “significant achievement” against entrenched corruption, coming just days before a key Party plenum where Xi can fill a half-empty military leadership with loyalists. Potential bias: Chinese officials frame the crackdown as purely anti-graft – cleaning house to strengthen the military’s integrity. Outside analysts note the timing also serves Xi’s political aims, allowing him to install new generals and tighten his grip on the PLA. Skeptics point out many of the purged officers were Xi protégés, suggesting the campaign may be as much about internal power realignment as discipline.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Middle East Ceasefire Aftermath: A ceasefire halted two years of war between Israel and Hamas, prompting Israeli forces to withdraw from most of Gaza and sparking scenes of mixed relief and devastation. As part of the U.S.-mediated deal, Hamas released the final 20 living Israeli hostages and Israel freed nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. President Trump hailed the truce – “they’re all tired of the fighting” – and even addressed Israel’s Knesset, championing his 20-point peace plan to ensure Hamas’ disarmament and Gaza’s reconstruction. However, Hamas fighters reasserted themselves on the ground: even during the truce they deployed security forces in Gaza’s streets and executed accused collaborators, a show of force rejecting any outside “guardianship” over Gaza. Trump warned that if Hamas does not disarm “we will disarm them…quickly and perhaps violently”, mirroring Israel’s stance that the war could resume if Hamas rearms. Potential bias: Western outlets emphasize the ceasefire as a historic breakthrough and credit U.S. diplomacy. Meanwhile, Hamas’s statements (carried in regional media) stress resistance and sovereignty, casting doubt on any plan that dilutes Palestinian control over Gaza. Israeli voices remain wary – Netanyahu insists Hamas must disarm one way or another – underscoring that this lull could be temporary if core issues aren’t resolved.
  reuters.com
  reuters.com
  
  
• South China Sea Clash: A dangerous maritime confrontation erupted near the disputed Spratly Islands. The Philippines accused a Chinese coast guard ship of deliberately ramming a Philippine vessel and firing water cannons at others on Oct. 12, near the Philippine-held Thitu Island (Pag-asa). Manila’s inter-agency Maritime Council “strongly condemned” China’s actions as an aggression in Philippine waters and vowed diplomatic action. Beijing, however, defended its coast guard, claiming the Philippine boats “illegally entered” Chinese territory around Sandy Cay and that a Filipino vessel’s “dangerous approach” led to the collision. The U.S. ambassador in Manila blasted China’s “dangerous ramming” of the Filipino boat as an “aggressive action”, publicly backing the Philippines. Potential bias: Philippine and U.S. officials frame this as Chinese maritime bullying, highlighting the unprovoked use of force. Chinese official outlets insist it was Philippine provocation that caused the incident and portray China’s coast guard as upholding law in its own waters. This stark narrative divide reflects broader tensions over South China Sea freedoms and competing sovereignty claims.
  reuters.com
  
  

Political and Diplomatic Developments

• Gaza Peace Summit in Egypt: World leaders gathered in Sharm el-Sheikh to cement the Israel-Hamas ceasefire and sketch out Gaza’s future. President Trump co-chaired the summit with Egypt’s President Sisi, where they signed the first phase of a Gaza peace agreement following the war’s end. Absent was Israel’s PM Benjamin Netanyahu, who – amid reports that Turkey and others opposed his presence – declined Trump’s invitation, citing a religious holiday. Palestinian Authority President Abbas did attend, as did leaders from Europe, Turkey, and the Gulf. Trump’s plan calls for an international “Board of Peace” (possibly led by Trump himself) to help administer Gaza post-conflict. However, that element faces resistance: Hamas has flatly rejected any “foreign guardianship” over Gaza, even as reconstruction begins. Potential bias: U.S. and Egyptian sources highlight the broad international support converging to stabilize Gaza and credit Trump’s personal diplomacy. Critics note that key Palestinian voices (Hamas) were not represented – and that Netanyahu’s no-show hints at behind-the-scenes frictions, despite official explanations.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Trump Meets Zelenskyy, Urges Ukraine to Consider Peace: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the White House on October 17 seeking longer-range U.S. weapons, but found President Trump notably cool on new aid and shifting toward brokering a negotiated end to the Russia-Ukraine war. After a two-hour meeting, Trump publicly called on both sides to “stop the killing and make a DEAL,” suggesting Kyiv and Moscow should freeze forces “where they are” and each claim victory. This stance marks a significant divergence from the previous U.S. approach of unwavering military support for Ukraine. Geopolitically, Trump’s pivot introduces uncertainty for U.S. allies in Eastern Europe: it may pressure Ukraine to contemplate ceasefire terms while Russia still occupies chunks of territory, potentially rewarding aggression. The optics of Zelenskyy in Washington having to justify continued resistance (he pointedly warned that Putin is stalling for time and that Ukraine has thousands of drones ready for a new offensive)highlight a rift – Kyiv fears a premature peace could cement Russian gains and undermine the post-WWII norm against forcible land grabs. Meanwhile, Trump confirmed plans to meet Putin in Hungary in coming weeks, a summit that alarms many NATO states. East European diplomats privately worry that any U.S.-Russia deal could be struck over Ukraine’s head, reshaping regional security at Ukraine’s expense. The encounter showcased Zelenskyy’s adeptness at global messaging – he also met congressional leaders and secured fresh air-defense pledges from Germany – but underscored that U.S. domestic politics (in an election season) are increasingly a front in Ukraine’s war for survival.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Armenia–Azerbaijan U.S.-Brokered Peace: The Caucasus saw hopeful diplomatic strides as Armenia and Azerbaijan began implementing a Washington-brokered peace deal to end decades of hostility. On Oct. 2, Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev met on the sidelines of a European summit in Copenhagen, reaffirming the agreements reached at President Trump’s “historic” peace summit in Washington in August. Both leaders stressed respect for each other’s territorial integrity and agreed to open transport links – including the new “Trump Route for Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP),” a corridor uniting Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave via southern Armenia. Notably, they jointly moved to dissolve the obsolete OSCE Minsk Group (the prior mediation mechanism), a clear pivot away from Russian-led formats. Potential bias: U.S. and allied observers hail this as a strategic win for Washington’s diplomacy and regional connectivity. Russian media, by contrast, have given muted coverage – the accord sidelines Moscow’s influence. Within Armenia, the deal remains sensitive: while Pashinyan defends “working every day for peace”, opposition voices worry about concessions, and Aliyev’s references to a “Zangezur corridor” still raise suspicions in Yerevan.
  armenianlife.com
  
  
• U.S.–China Rare Earths Spat: The war of words intensified over China’s rare earth export controls. In response to U.S. pleas to ease its new restrictions on critical minerals, China’s Commerce Ministry rebuked Washington for “deliberately stirring up unnecessary panic” globally. Beijing’s ruling Communist Party newspaper issued a seven-point rebuttal to U.S. negotiators’ comments, firmly rejecting suggestions that China roll back the curbs as a precondition for trade peace. Chinese officials argue the export licensing system (tightened this month for gallium, germanium and other tech-essential metals) is lawful and in line with international practice, accusing the U.S. of exaggerating their impact for political gain. The White House, however, sees the move as a pressure tactic: U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China’s rare earth chokehold was a “gross distortion” of fair trade, implicitly linking it to Trump’s tariff threats. Potential bias: Chinese media portrays export controls as a sovereign right to safeguard strategic resources, and says the U.S. is fear-mongering to extract concessions. U.S. officials and allied tech industries view China’s action as a bid to weaponize supply chains – leveraging its dominance in rare earths to gain bargaining power in broader trade talks.
  reuters.com
  
  

Geostrategic Flashpoints

• Clash in the South China Sea: The Philippines–China naval standoff this week underscored the South China Sea’s volatility as a flashpoint. Near the disputed Second Thomas Shoal earlier (in a related incident), and then off Thitu Island on Oct 12, Chinese ships confronted Philippine vessels. In the Thitu case, a Chinese coast guard cutter blasted a Philippine boat with a water cannon and nudged it, causing minor damage. The Philippines termed it a “violation of sovereignty” and summoned China’s envoy, while China’s foreign ministry insisted its coast guard was enforcing maritime law in its territory. This follows a pattern of Chinese harassment of Philippine resupply missions to remote atolls – just last month a similar incident occurred at Second Thomas Shoal where Philippine boats were blocked. The U.S. has publicly backed Manila, and at ASEAN and UN forums multiple nations have called out China’s “dangerous actions” at sea. Potential bias: Regional neighbors (like Vietnam and Indonesia) quietly support the Philippines’ version of events, fearing China’s assertiveness could target them next. Chinese state media, however, released footage aiming to show the Philippine ships intruding and emphasized that Beijing’s claims are non-negotiable.
  reuters.com
  
  
• China and Saudi Arabia Launch Joint Naval Drills: In a sign of deepening Gulf-Asia defense ties, China’s navy kicked off Blue Sword 2025 exercises with Saudi Arabia on October 13 at the Kingdom’s Jubail naval base. Over 700 Chinese naval and marine personnel joined Saudi forces for three weeks of drills focused on maritime security, counter-piracy, and disaster relief. This marks the third such bilateral exercise, but the first held in Saudi waters – symbolically significant as Beijing steps up military cooperation with a key U.S. partner in the Gulf. The drills, featuring Chinese frigates and Saudi naval infantry, aim to improve interoperability and trust between the PLA Navy and Saudi Eastern Fleet. Strategically, Blue Sword underscores China’s growing footprint in the Middle East’s security architecture: from arms sales to joint maneuvers, Beijing is positioning itself as an alternative partner to Washington for Gulf states diversifying their alliances. Riyadh, for its part, gains leverage by showcasing new options for military collaboration beyond the Western umbrella. The exercise comes amid booming Sino-Saudi economic links (energy, infrastructure), suggesting that Gulf geopolitical alignment may slowly tilt eastward. U.S. defense planners will note that while Blue Sword is officially about humanitarian operations, it also familiarizes China’s navy with operating in a region critical to global oil flows – with potential implications for future power projection and alliance dynamics in the Gulf.
  thenationalnews.com
  reuters.com
  
  
• Allied Navies Flex in the South China Sea: A nine-nation flotilla led by the United States and the Philippines concluded Exercise Sama-Sama on October 17, underscoring growing maritime cooperation to counter China’s assertiveness. Warships from Japan, Australia, Canada, France, the UK and others drilled together off Palawan near contested waters, practicing combined maneuvers, live-fire drills, and interoperability in maritime security operations. The exercise – whose name means “together” in Filipino – sent a deliberate signal: it affirmed a de facto coalition upholding freedom of navigation and mutual defense in the face of Beijing’s sweeping South China Sea claims. Notably, it coincided with China launching its own drills near Scarborough Shoal, a flashpoint disputed with Manila, highlighting dueling shows of force in the region. Geopolitically, the expansive Sama-Sama drills reinforce alliance deterrence by integrating forces (e.g. Philippine BRP Antonio Luna with a US destroyer and Japanese patrols). This expanded multilateral approach – including European partners – underlines that the South China Sea is not solely a local concern but a global commons where an international coalition is prepared to safeguard rules and resist coercion.
  newsweek.com
  bworldonline.com
  
  
• Chinese Ships Intensify Probing of Japan’s Senkaku Waters: Tokyo has sounded the alarm over a surge in Chinese coast guard and “research” vessels near the Senkaku Islands (Diaoyu to China) this fall, with intrusions now occurring on an almost daily basis. Japanese officials report that Chinese government ships have been routinely crossing the Japan–China median line and patrolling just outside the 12-mile territorial seas around the Japan-administered islets. In some cases, Chinese survey ships have even operated inside Japan’s EEZ without permission, dropping instruments to map the seabed near strategic areas like Amami-Oshima. This escalated presence – enabled by China’s growing fleet of larger, armed coast guard cutters that can endure rough weather year-round – is eroding the status quo. Geopolitically, Beijing appears to be pressuring Japan’s resolve and response bandwidth, possibly aiming to establish a quasi-normalized Chinese security presence around the disputed islands. Japan has protested and increased its Coast Guard budget, but its patrol boats are stretched thin. Notably, these incursions coincide with intensifying Sino-U.S. rivalry and Japan’s own military buildup. By challenging Japan in the East China Sea while also confronting U.S. allies elsewhere, China is testing the unity and focus of the U.S.-Japan alliance. Tokyo faces a dilemma: respond too softly and risk incremental loss of control; respond forcefully and risk unintended clashes. This delicate flashpoint, while quieter than the Taiwan Strait, could become a dangerous trigger if, for example, China’s armed coast guard were to block or detain Japanese vessels. Both sides are exercising restraint for now, but the near-daily cat-and-mouse around the Senkakus is a stark reminder of Northeast Asia’s latent volatility.
  japan-forward.com
  
  

Terrorism and Conflict

• Pakistan’s Border War with Taliban Spills Blood: A fragile ceasefire between Pakistan and Afghanistan’s Taliban nearly collapsed on October 17 after a suicide car bombing in North Waziristan killed 7 Pakistani soldiers. The Pakistani Taliban (TTP), operating from Afghan sanctuaries, claimed responsibility. Pakistan retaliated with drone strikes in Afghanistan’s Paktika province even as both sides prepared for Doha talks. The clashes highlight a dramatic reversal: Islamabad’s former Taliban allies now shield militants attacking Pakistan. Heavy border fighting and airstrikes killed dozens before U.S.-Qatari mediation paused hostilities.The crisis has wide implications. Fighting along the Durand Line diverts Pakistan’s military focus from India, strains its finances, and risks empowering ISIL-K. Both governments face pressure—Pakistan from China to protect CPEC investments, and the Taliban from its need for legitimacy abroad. A prolonged border war could upend regional stability and derail great-power plans to fold Afghanistan into Eurasian economic networks, making the Doha outcome pivotal for South and Central Asia.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Sudan – In Sudan’s Darfur region, heavy fighting inflicted mass civilian casualties amid a siege of the regional capital. Local activists say drone and artillery strikes by the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) on displacement shelters in al-Fashir between Oct. 10–11 killed at least 60 people, including women and children. The RSF, which has besieged al-Fashir to capture the army’s last stronghold in Darfur, denied targeting civilians despite witness reports of bodies under rubble and people burned alive in the shelter attacks. The months-long onslaught has created catastrophic conditions, with residents digging bunkers and activists reporting an average of 30 deaths per day from violence, hunger and disease. The carnage in Darfur highlights the escalating brutality and humanitarian toll in Sudan’s civil conflict.
  reuters.com

WMD & Cyber Warfare

• New Zealand re‑imposes U.N.‑linked sanctions on Iran, effective October 18, citing Tehran’s failure to comply with its nuclear obligations under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. The sanctions will include asset freezes, travel bans, and bans on certain nuclear and military goods, along with new reporting requirements for Kiwis doing business with Iran. Wellington said the move aligns with similar action by Britain, France, and Germany, and urged Iran to return to full cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency.
  reuters.com
  
  
• UK, US impose sanctions on Southeast Asian scam networks. Britain and the United States sanctioned a multinational organized crime operation based in Southeast Asia that operates large-scale “scam centres,” exploiting trafficked workers forced to commit online fraud.The targeted network—operating in Cambodia, Myanmar, and beyond—lured victims with fake job ads, then coerced them into cryptocurrency and investment scams under threat and deception. The U.S. Treasury called the move the largest such action ever in Southeast Asia, targeting 146 individuals in the so-called Prince Group, including its chair, Chinese-Cambodian tycoon Chen Zhi.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Healthcare Under Cyber Siege: A new report highlighted that ransomware attacks on healthcare providers have surged by 30% this year, underscoring the growing nexus of cyber threats and human security. Cybercriminal gangs – some believed to operate from Russia and Eastern Europe – are shifting tactics to target hospitals’ third-party IT vendors and software supply chains, knowing that penetrating those can cripple multiple facilities at once. Just this week, a major U.S. hospital chain’s patient data system went offline after a vendor was hit by ransomware, forcing some hospitals to divert ambulances for two days. The American Hospital Association noted that as of Oct. 3, a record 364 hacking incidents had been reported in 2025 against health sector entities. Separately, U.S. officials warned that a key federal cyber law, the Cybersecurity Information Sharing Act, quietly expired on Oct 1 without renewal – potentially hampering timely intelligence-sharing between government and industry on threats. Potential bias: Cybersecurity firms and industry groups stress these alarming figures to push for more resources and sometimes their own services, but the data is backed by FBI and DHS analyses that show a real “cyber plague” hitting health networks. Government sources, for their part, use such reports to urge Congress to promptly reauthorize cyber information-sharing legislation, arguing that bureaucratic lapses (like letting the law lapse) only help hackers. Privacy advocates, however, caution that any new cyber law should include robust safeguards, as past information-sharing raised concerns about surveillance. The consensus across stakeholders is that critical infrastructure – especially healthcare – is in cyber crosshairs like never before, and a failure to act will have literal life-and-death consequences.
  industrialcyber.co
  
  
• AI and Cyber Offense: 2025 has seen a major uptick in the use of artificial intelligence in cyber warfare, by both attackers and defenders. According to Microsoft’s latest Cyber Threat report, more than half of cyberattacks globally now involve extortion or ransomware, and attackers are increasingly leveraging AI tools to boost the scale and sophistication of their operations. For example, AI-driven bots can rapidly craft phishing emails in multiple languages, tailor malware to evade specific network defenses, or even generate convincing voice deepfakes to trick employees (so-called “vishing” attacks). On the flip side, cybersecurity teams are deploying AI for anomaly detection, automated threat hunting, and faster incident response. This week, a joint U.S.–EU workshop on cyber discussed setting basic norms for AI use – such as a pledge not to target critical safety systems (like nuclear plants or air traffic control) with AI-crafted cyberattacks – but agreement remains distant. Potential bias: Tech companies hype AI’s defensive potential, showcasing how machine learning blocked certain high-profile breaches, which also conveniently markets their AI-infused security products. Law enforcement and military cyber units, however, privately express worry that AI gives adversaries (including rogue states) a powerful force multiplier that could overwhelm conventional defenses – a fear only hinted at in public forums. Civil liberties experts note the same AI tools can enable mass surveillance or attribution mistakes. Thus, while AI is undoubtedly reshaping the cyber battlefield, there’s a push to ensure it doesn’t become a Pandora’s box that spirals out of control – a delicate task with nation-states and criminal gangs all racing to weaponize algorithms in the shadows.
  blogs.microsoft.com