Highlighted Works by Mackinder Forum Members

Weekly Geopolitical News Bulletin (January 3-9, 2026)

Geoeconomics

• UN projects slightly slower global growth in 2026 amid tariff uncertainty and geopolitical risk — The UN forecast global growth of 2.7% in 2026, a modest step down from its estimate for 2025, citing the drag from higher U.S. tariffs, elevated policy uncertainty, and persistent geopolitical tensions. The outlook highlights resilience in consumption and disinflation in parts of the world economy, but also emphasizes uneven performance across regions—particularly where debt burdens and climate shocks remain binding constraints. The report’s baseline assumes no major shock escalation; it implicitly flags that trade restrictions and conflict spillovers can quickly reprice risk and cap investment.
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• China moves to phase out export VAT rebates for solar PV and batteries, signaling a policy turn on overcapacity — Beijing announced it will eliminate VAT export rebates for photovoltaic products from April 1, 2026, and begin stepping down rebates for battery exports before ending them entirely in 2027. The measure is framed as a way to curb price declines and reduce trade friction by limiting the use of rebates as de facto export discounts. Strategically, it suggests Beijing is willing to absorb some near-term export competitiveness pain to manage overcapacity optics and external pressure, while still defending core industrial scale. The policy is likely to reverberate through global clean-tech supply chains already shaped by subsidy disputes and anti-dumping actions.
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• EU member states back the Mercosur trade deal, advancing a major bloc-to-bloc market-opening push — EU governments voted to support the long-negotiated agreement with Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay), a step that would remove most tariffs across a combined market of roughly 700 million people, though it still requires European Parliament approval and Mercosur-side ratification. The decision underscores the EU’s strategic push to diversify trade and secure supply chains amid protectionism and U.S.-China rivalry dynamics. Opposition—especially from agricultural constituencies—remains intense, with critics citing environmental standards and competitiveness concerns; supporters emphasize industrial export gains and geopolitical signaling in favor of multilateral trade rules. Financial-market and industry framing may differ from farmer and NGO perspectives, which often foreground enforcement credibility on deforestation and labor standards.
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• U.S. tariff refund litigation heads toward high-stakes resolution, keeping importer cost structures uncertain — A widening legal fight over whether importers can secure refunds tied to Trump-era tariffs is creating a prolonged corridor of uncertainty for firms and for the U.S. Treasury’s potential liabilities. The dispute sits at the intersection of executive trade powers, administrative process, and retroactive financial exposure—meaning outcomes could influence how aggressively future tariff policy is deployed and challenged. Even without immediate policy change, the litigation itself keeps compliance, pricing, and inventory strategies in a holding pattern for exposed sectors. The reporting focus is legal/market-oriented; political actors may frame the same issue as either restoring rule-of-law constraints or undermining tariff leverage.
  money.com
  
  
• OPEC output edges lower in December, complicating the near-term supply picture for a still-fragile oil market — A Reuters survey found OPEC crude output fell in December, reinforcing that supply discipline and operational constraints remain key drivers of near-term balances. Even modest shifts matter because risk premia are sensitive to spare capacity narratives, sanctions enforcement, and any disruption at major chokepoints. The market impact is less about one month’s delta and more about how producers signal future posture—whether restraint holds, offsets arrive from non-OPEC supply, and how demand tracks amid policy uncertainty. Survey-based reporting can differ from some national figures due to methodology; the directional signal, however, is that supply remains managed rather than freely expanding.
  reuters.com

Military Developments

• Ukraine’s partners outline post-ceasefire security guarantees at a Paris meeting — Ukraine’s allies reported progress on a framework intended to deter renewed Russian attack after any ceasefire, including monitoring mechanisms and commitments meant to be activated once fighting pauses. The initiative reflects a shift from ad hoc assistance toward more structured deterrence concepts—though details depend on political buy-in, force-generation realities, and how “guarantees” are defined in practice. Russia’s likely response calculus—treating deployments as escalatory—remains a central constraint, and the credibility of any arrangement will be judged by rapidity and unity of implementation rather than declaratory language. Coverage centers on allied planning; Moscow’s framing emphasizes illegitimacy and escalation risk.
  apnews.com
  
  
• North Korea claims hypersonic weapons-linked testing, underscoring pressure on regional missile-defense assumptions — North Korean state media said recent tests involve a hypersonic weapons system, which—if operationally credible—could complicate interception by combining speed and maneuverability. Outside analysts have repeatedly debated whether North Korean tests meet true hypersonic performance thresholds, but the strategic signal is consistent: Pyongyang is advertising qualitative advances and reinforcing its “deterrent” narrative. The timing also feeds regional threat perceptions in Seoul and Tokyo and can influence allied posture decisions on sensors, interceptors, and readiness. Reporting necessarily leans on official North Korean claims alongside expert skepticism, leaving some technical specifics unverified.
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• UK–France joint strike on an ISIL target near Palmyra signals ongoing expeditionary counterterror capacity — Britain and France carried out a joint strike against an ISIL target near Palmyra, illustrating that Western militaries retain both the intent and capability to conduct precision operations in contested theaters. The action also demonstrates that counter-ISIL objectives persist even as attention and resources are heavily drawn toward state-on-state risks in Europe and the Indo-Pacific. Operationally, such strikes raise familiar questions about deconfliction, partner-force coordination, and the durability of intelligence access in fragmented environments. Coverage can vary by outlet emphasis: military effectiveness and legality on one side, and civilian-risk or sovereignty concerns on the other.
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• Germany’s Rheinmetall and MBDA move toward a naval laser joint venture, accelerating directed-energy air-defense development — Rheinmetall and MBDA said they plan to establish a joint venture focused on naval laser systems, aiming to field high-energy lasers for close-in defense—especially against drones and other low-cost aerial threats. Directed-energy programs are attractive because they promise lower cost-per-shot and deep magazines compared with missiles, but they face persistent constraints (power generation, atmospheric effects, integration timelines). Because this is a company statement, it naturally highlights capability and intent; independent validation will hinge on testing outcomes, procurement decisions, and operational deployment schedules. The announcement nonetheless reflects broader European momentum to harden platforms against saturation and “hybrid” threat environments.
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• Pakistan nears a major arms package for Sudan, illustrating how external supply can shape conflict trajectories — Reuters reported Pakistan is close to a roughly $1.5 billion defense deal with Sudan, involving aircraft, drones, and air-defense systems—capabilities that could materially affect battlefield dynamics in a war already marked by outside influence and drone proliferation. Arms flows into Sudan are geopolitically consequential because they intersect with Gulf politics, Red Sea security, and regional competition over alignment and access. The report also highlights how defense exports can become instruments of diplomacy as well as revenue—though funding channels and end-use realities are often opaque. This story relies on sources familiar with negotiations; definitive impact depends on delivery, training, sustainment, and Sudan’s internal command coherence.
  reuters.com

Political and Diplomatic developments

• Venezuela: Trump says U.S. captured Maduro; later cancels planned “second wave” after claimed cooperation — On Jan. 3, President Donald Trump said the U.S. carried out a large-scale operation in Venezuela that captured Nicolás Maduro and his wife, with Trump presenting it as a decisive intervention and signaling U.S. control over the transition. On Jan. 9, Trump said he canceled a previously expected second wave of attacks after Venezuela began releasing a large number of political prisoners, which he described as a sign Caracas was “seeking peace,” while adding that U.S. ships would remain in place for “safety and security.” Trump also linked the de-escalation to an economic “rebuild” narrative—saying the U.S. and Venezuela were working together on oil and gas infrastructure and that he would meet oil executives about investment.
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• Trump orders U.S. withdrawal from dozens of international and UN-linked bodies, accelerating institutional decoupling — The White House said President Trump signed a proclamation withdrawing the United States from multiple international and UN entities, reflecting an explicit sovereignty-first posture toward multilateral frameworks. Beyond symbolism, withdrawals can affect funding, information-sharing, agenda-setting, and the credibility of U.S. commitments in issue areas ranging from climate to development and governance. The step also forces allies and partners to recalibrate: either compensate for gaps, reshape institutions to keep U.S. alignment, or accept fragmentation. Coverage may divide between those emphasizing “national interest” cost control and those warning about diminished U.S. leverage and global coordination capacity.
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• EU leadership makes a high-profile Damascus visit and pledges major funding for Syria’s recovery — EU leaders visited Syria and pledged €620 million for 2026–2027 recovery and humanitarian support, signaling a major political shift after the civil war’s end and the EU’s earlier sanctions posture. The visit underscores European intent to influence postwar stabilization, reconstruction sequencing, and governance outcomes—while balancing concerns over security, displacement, and the risk of renewed violence. The trip also unfolded against reports of clashes in Aleppo and ongoing negotiations over Kurdish forces’ integration, highlighting how quickly “postwar” phases can revert to armed bargaining. European messaging emphasizes recovery and partnership; critics may focus on conditionality, accountability, and who benefits from reconstruction flows.
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• Trump signals support for advancing a Russia sanctions package, tightening the diplomacy–coercion mix over Ukraine — An AP report via ABC News said Sen. Lindsey Graham claimed President Trump has “greenlit” a sanctions bill targeting Russia over its war in Ukraine. The initiative matters because sanctions design can reshape coalition cohesion: secondary measures and energy-trade penalties often create pressure on third countries and can produce uneven political costs among partners. Diplomatically, the signal is that Washington is keeping coercive tools active even as discussions over security guarantees and possible ceasefire frameworks continue. Domestic U.S. politics and allied tolerance for escalatory economic measures will influence how much the bill becomes a bargaining instrument versus a sustained pressure regime.
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• China bans two Taiwanese ministers from entering the mainland, reinforcing “anti-independence” pressure tactics — Reuters reported Beijing barred two Taiwanese ministers from entering mainland China, a move consistent with broader efforts to constrain Taipei’s diplomatic and political space. Such bans are low-cost coercive signaling—calibrated to demonstrate resolve and stigmatize certain officeholders—while remaining below thresholds that would trigger immediate kinetic escalation. The action also illustrates how cross-strait pressure campaigns increasingly combine legal-administrative measures, information operations, and selective economic signals alongside military demonstrations. Beijing’s framing emphasizes sovereignty and “separatism,” while Taiwan and many partners interpret these steps as coercion.
  reuters.com

Geostrategic Flashpoints

• BRICS-branded “Will for Peace 2026” naval drills off South Africa underscore contestation over maritime security narratives near Cape routes — China’s defense ministry said Chinese, Russian, and South African forces will conduct maritime drills off South Africa in January, operating from Simon’s Town under a theme of safeguarding key shipping lanes and maritime economic activity. The reported program includes counter-terrorism/rescue operations and “anti-sea strike” training, linking the exercise explicitly to shipping-lane security at a moment when rerouting around the Cape remains strategically salient. Although depicted as a BRICS event, the announcement indicated most BRICS members (including India and Brazil) are not participating, highlighting how the BRICS label is being extended beyond economics even when participation is limited. Bias note: Breitbart’s “anti-American” framing is editorial; other outlets may describe the drills more neutrally as routine cooperation, but the exercise still signals deeper maritime coordination among the participating states.
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• Suez Canal traffic remains ~60% below normal despite ~100 days without Houthi attacks, showing risk-pricing persists after tactical pauses — Maritime reporting cites BIMCO data indicating Suez transits stayed far below pre-crisis levels in the first week of 2026 even after a prolonged lull in Houthi attacks. The key geopolitical signal is durability: even when attacks stop, insurers, shipowners, and cargo interests may keep routing via the Cape until confidence is restored—and that confidence can be reversed by a single incident. The piece also notes selective “testing” of returns by major carriers, suggesting a gradualist re-entry rather than a sudden normalization. The implication is that chokepoint insecurity can continue to reshape global trade geometry long after headlines fade, with knock-on effects for freight markets and naval posture.
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• Greenland PM says “enough” after renewed Trump annexation rhetoric, sharpening Arctic sovereignty and alliance friction — Euronews reports Greenland’s Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen publicly rejecting renewed U.S. annexation pressure and urging dialogue “through the proper channels” and respect for international law. The episode matters because Greenland’s strategic value—Arctic basing geography, early warning, and mineral potential—makes political rhetoric immediately consequential for Denmark, NATO cohesion, and regional security signaling. Even if acquisition scenarios remain politically implausible, repeated coercive framing can accelerate counter-moves (investment, force posture, legal messaging) and harden domestic politics in Greenland and Denmark. Euronews’ framing is sovereignty-forward; U.S. rhetoric emphasizes national security and capability arguments, producing a persistent narrative clash.
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• High-seas tanker seizure underscores sanctions enforcement as a maritime flashpoint, with escalation risk baked into interdiction dynamics — Stars and Stripes reports U.S. forces seized an Iran-linked tanker in the North Atlantic after an extended pursuit, highlighting the widening geographic scope of sanctions enforcement and the “cat-and-mouse” nature of maritime interdiction. Beyond the single vessel, such actions shape shadow-shipping behavior—reflagging, AIS manipulation, ship-to-ship transfers—and can increase the risk of confrontation if other navies or state actors shadow or contest enforcement operations. The strategic value is deterrence-by-demonstration, but the danger is miscalculation: contested narratives about legality and proportionality can inflame tensions even outside declared war zones. As a U.S. military-facing outlet, Stripes centers U.S. operational framing; adversary narratives often stress sovereignty and alleged unlawful force.
  stripes.com

Terrorism and Conflict

• Yemen’s Saudi-backed government retakes Mukalla from UAE-aligned separatists, exposing anti-Houthi fragmentation — Yemen’s internationally recognized, Saudi-backed government said it retook Mukalla from UAE-backed southern separatists, a sharp reminder that Yemen’s conflict is not a single-front war. This internal rupture is strategically important because it affects governance in the east, the cohesion of the anti-Houthi camp, and the security environment adjacent to the Gulf of Aden/Bab el-Mandeb corridor. It also reflects the reality that coalition partners can diverge sharply on end-state visions (unitary Yemen vs. southern autonomy). Times of Israel reporting centers on official claims and battlefield control; local actors may contest legitimacy narratives and emphasize distinct political mandates.
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• Israeli strikes kill at least 13 in Gaza as the ceasefire frays and governance plans remain contested — AP reported Israeli strikes killed at least 13 across Gaza amid continuing tensions despite a ceasefire framework, with both sides accusing the other of violations. The reporting also described emerging U.S.-linked governance and oversight concepts (including a proposed “Board of Peace”), underscoring that post-conflict administrative designs are becoming part of the battlefield narrative. The core risk is that tactical incidents—rocket fire, localized raids, or mistaken attribution—can reset escalation dynamics quickly when trust and verification are thin. Coverage differs sharply across outlets depending on sourcing and emphasis (civilian impact vs. security rationale), so triangulation remains essential for attribution and casualty context.
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• Israel strikes Hezbollah targets across Lebanon as disarmament claims and deterrence signaling collide — Reuters reported Israel attacked Hezbollah targets in multiple areas of Lebanon, following Lebanese army statements about asserting control in the south and Israeli claims that disarmament efforts remain insufficient. The episode highlights the fragility of any de-escalation arrangement when one side views enforcement as incomplete and the other views strikes as sovereignty violations. It also illustrates how “state monopoly on arms” campaigns can become flashpoints themselves, forcing Lebanese institutions into direct confrontation with powerful nonstate actors. Competing narratives are predictable: Israel emphasizes threat prevention, while Lebanese and Hezbollah-aligned voices stress deterrence and legitimacy; the immediate risk lies in miscalculation and escalation cycles.
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• U.S. exits a global violent-extremism prevention fund, raising questions about future prevention architecture — Reuters reported the U.S. is leaving GCERF, a global organization focused on preventing violent extremism, amid a broader drawdown in U.S. foreign assistance. The significance is less about one institution and more about the cumulative effect: prevention ecosystems often rely on steady funding, local partnerships, and long time horizons that are difficult to reconstitute after abrupt cuts. The policy move could shift the burden to European and Gulf donors or lead to program contraction in high-risk environments, potentially widening gaps between kinetic counterterror operations and upstream prevention. Supporters may frame withdrawal as rational prioritization; critics argue it reduces non-military tools that can mitigate radicalization trajectories.
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WMD&CyberWarfare

• Russia launches a nuclear-capable “Oreshnik” missile strike near Ukraine’s EU/NATO border, intensifying escalation signaling — Reuters reported Russia fired a hypersonic Oreshnik missile at a target near western Ukraine, close to Poland, as part of a broader mass strike package. Even if used with non-nuclear payloads, deploying a system described as nuclear-capable carries escalation messaging value: it tests allied risk tolerance and can be read as a deterrent signal aimed at slowing support for Kyiv. The strike also reinforces how infrastructure and winterization are central to war strategy, with cascading humanitarian and political effects. Reporting depends on Ukrainian and Western descriptions of the system’s capabilities alongside Russia’s signaling; technical specifics and payload details are often contested in real time.
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• Trump says the U.S. may let New START expire, putting the last major U.S.–Russia nuclear limits at risk — Reuters reported President Trump suggested the U.S. might allow New START to lapse, raising the prospect that the principal treaty limiting deployed strategic nuclear warheads and delivery systems could end without replacement. The material consequence would be fewer transparency and verification mechanisms and a higher risk of worst-case planning cycles—especially amid already strained relations and active war in Europe. Negotiating a successor is structurally harder now: distrust is high, timelines are short, and broader strategic concerns (including China) complicate bilateral frameworks. Arms-control debates are often politically polarized; the strategic reality is that verification regimes reduce uncertainty even when they don’t resolve underlying rivalry.
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• China-linked “Salt Typhoon” compromise reaches U.S. congressional staff email systems, widening political-espionage concerns — The Financial Times reported that Chinese hackers associated with “Salt Typhoon” compromised email systems used by staff of U.S. House committees, a development that deepens concerns about political intelligence collection and influence leverage. Penetration of legislative communications can expose negotiation strategy, oversight targets, and sensitive diplomatic or security discussions—effects that persist even after remediation. Public attribution also raises response dilemmas: sanctions, cyber countermeasures, and diplomatic retaliation each carry escalation and disclosure tradeoffs. The FT’s account leans on Western officials and investigative reporting; China has repeatedly denied hacking allegations, and independent public forensic detail is often limited by classification.
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• Iran imposes an internet blackout amid expanding protests, using digital control as a core internal-security tool — Reuters reported Iran shut off internet access as protests over economic hardship widened, with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei expected to address the unrest. Internet blackouts reduce coordination capacity and limit outside visibility, but they also increase rumor dynamics and can deepen public anger by disrupting livelihoods—making them a blunt but repeatedly used instrument. The protests’ scale and trajectory are difficult to assess precisely under blackout conditions; casualty and detention figures often differ across state, activist, and NGO reporting. The event is geopolitically salient because internal instability can affect regional posture, escalation thresholds with rivals, and the regime’s willingness to externalize pressure.
  reuters.com