Highlighted Works by Mackinder Forum Members

Weekly Geopolitical News Bulletin (Dec 20-26, 2025)

Geoeconomics

• Oil ends 2025 with its steepest annual drop since 2020, underscoring oversupply risk heading into 2026: Brent and WTI both closed out 2025 down sharply, with price action dominated less by acute disruption and more by expectations of looser balances (high non-OPEC supply, record/near-record U.S. output, and demand uncertainty). Reuters notes that geopolitical frictions (e.g., strikes on energy infrastructure, sanctions moves) can still generate short-term spikes, but the market’s baseline narrative remains “ample supply unless something breaks.” A key signal for 2026 is whether OPEC+ discipline can offset non-OPEC growth without sacrificing cohesion. Source note: wire reporting captures market consensus quickly, but forward supply/demand estimates can shift materially with policy and compliance changes.
  reuters.com
  
  
• China takes in LNG from Russian projects under Western sanctions, highlighting enforcement limits and energy “shadow flows”: Reuters reports China received 22 LNG shipments in 2025 from two Russian export projects sanctioned by the U.S./EU—one from Portovaya and the rest from Arctic LNG 2—tracked via shipping/analytics providers. The deliveries reportedly went to the Beihai LNG Terminal in Guangxi, and the story underscores how sanctions often re-route trade rather than halt it, especially when counterparties accept legal/insurance complexity. The geopolitical relevance is the durability of Russia’s hydrocarbons revenue channels and the degree to which China can arbitrage discounted supply amid tightening global LNG markets. Source note: Reuters leans on third‑party shipping data; operator confirmation can be limited during holidays or when parties decline comment.
  reuters.com
  
  
• U.S. targets Venezuelan crude trading intermediaries, widening sanctions pressure beyond Caracas: The Financial Times reports Washington sanctioned four traders involved in carrying Venezuelan crude, a move that focuses on the commercial “plumbing” enabling exports rather than only state entities. This can raise transaction costs through compliance risk, shipping/insurance frictions, and counterparty de-risking, even if volumes still find outlets via alternative channels. The step also signals that sanctions strategy increasingly aims at networks and facilitators, not just sovereign targets. Source note: FT’s framing often emphasizes market transmission and Western policy intent; parallel coverage may stress humanitarian effects and domestic Venezuelan politics.
  ft.com
  
  
• Washington grants annual licenses for Samsung and SK hynix tool shipments to China, refining (not removing) chip controls: Tom’s Hardware reports U.S. authorities granted Samsung and SK hynix 2026 licenses to ship chipmaking tools to China—an operationally significant adjustment that can stabilize maintenance/upgrade cycles at existing facilities while preserving the broader export-control architecture. The development illustrates the “controlled interdependence” trend: tightening at the frontier, but with carve-outs to prevent abrupt supply shocks and allied firm disruption. The strategic question is whether such licensing becomes a durable template or a transitional measure amid U.S.-China tech competition. Source note: tech-industry outlets may foreground operational details; readers should also track official Commerce/agency language for scope and conditions.
  tomshardware.com
  
  
• Global LNG exports post their biggest jump in three years, with the U.S. leading supply growth: Bloomberg reports worldwide LNG exports rose about 10% in 2025 (per Kpler), the largest increase in three years, with the U.S. highlighted as the largest exporter. This reinforces LNG’s centrality to energy security planning and to sanctions-era “friend-shoring” of supply, even as new capacity adds competitive pressure and reshapes pricing leverage. A core geopolitical implication is that incremental LNG availability can dilute chokepoint coercion and diversify import options—though infrastructure bottlenecks (terminals, pipelines, power demand) still constrain who benefits. Source note: Bloomberg’s lens is market- and data-driven; it can underweight local political constraints around new terminals and permitting.
  bloomberg.com
  
  

Military Developments

• Israel says its “Iron Beam” laser air-defense system is delivered and already active: Breaking Defense reports Israel delivered the Iron Beam laser system and that it is already in operation, marking a notable step toward integrating directed-energy defense into layered air-defense architecture. If sustained in real-world use, lasers can change the cost-exchange ratio against rockets and drones by reducing reliance on expensive interceptors—though weather, range, and engagement conditions remain limiting factors. The broader military relevance is the diffusion of directed-energy systems from trials into operational posture, with implications for drone-heavy theaters. Source note: defense-industry outlets can be optimistic on capability; independent verification of performance metrics is often limited.
  breakingdefense.com
  
  
• Switzerland’s armed forces chief warns the country can’t repel a full-scale attack under current posture: Reuters quotes Switzerland’s top military officer arguing the country cannot defend itself from a full-scale assault and should boost defense spending in response to a deteriorating European security environment. The statement reflects a wider European trend of reassessing readiness, stockpiles, and industrial capacity after years of underinvestment. Strategically, such assessments can accelerate procurement and policy shifts even in traditionally neutral states—especially where Russia is viewed as a systemic risk.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Thailand and Cambodia agree to a ceasefire after border clashes near ancient temple sites: AP reports the two countries reached a ceasefire after fighting that involved artillery exchanges and displacement, highlighting how localized border disputes can escalate quickly when nationalist pressures and contested heritage sites intersect. The immediate military significance is de-escalation and separation, but the strategic issue is the persistence of unresolved boundary demarcation that can be re-triggered by domestic politics. Monitoring will focus on verification mechanisms, troop pullbacks, and whether leaderships can contain local commanders and militias.
  apnews.com
  
  
• China launches its most extensive drills around Taiwan, rehearsing blockade dynamics and signaling escalation capacity: Reuters reports Beijing’s largest-to-date war games around Taiwan were designed to demonstrate the ability to cut the island off from outside support, including live-fire components and multi-domain signaling. The exercises underscore how China is operationalizing “encirclement” concepts—raising crisis instability by increasing the tempo, scale, and normalcy of high-end activity near key sea lanes. For Taiwan and partners, the challenge is calibrating response without normalizing a new baseline of coercive presence. Source note: Chinese official descriptions emphasize “deterrence,” while Taipei and some Western capitals interpret the same activities as rehearsal for compellence—so framing differs sharply.
  reuters.com
  
  

Political and Diplomatic Developments

• Zelenskiy rejects a “weak” peace deal in New Year address as diplomacy accelerates: Reuters reports President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Ukraine wants the war to end, but not “at any cost,” warning that weak agreements would only prolong conflict. He said a U.S.-led diplomatic track had brought a deal close to completion, with the hardest remaining issue tied to territorial control—amid Russia’s ongoing occupation of significant Ukrainian territory. Politically, this frames a negotiating red line while managing public exhaustion and allied expectations. Source note: rhetoric is strategic in wartime; concrete terms often diverge from public positioning as talks mature.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Erdogan plans phone call with Trump focused on Ukraine peace efforts and Gaza: Reuters reports Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said he will speak with U.S. President Donald Trump about Ukraine-Russia peace efforts and the Gaza situation, while noting Turkey’s foreign minister will participate in a “Coalition of the Willing” meeting in Paris. Diplomatically, this signals Ankara’s continued bid to remain a central convening node across multiple theaters—balancing NATO ties, regional priorities, and mediation ambitions. The key variable is whether Turkey can translate access and agenda-setting into sustained leverage over outcomes rather than episodic engagement. Source note: Turkish government messaging often emphasizes mediator status; counterparts may see Ankara’s role through a more transactional lens.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Trump warns Iran against rebuilding nuclear capability during Netanyahu visit: AP reports President Donald Trump, hosting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, warned Iran that the U.S. would strike again if Tehran reconstituted its nuclear program, language that raises the deterrence temperature following prior U.S.-Israel actions against nuclear-linked targets. The meeting also sits within broader regional bargaining over Gaza and post-war security arrangements, where nuclear signaling and conventional escalation risks are intertwined. Source note: AP’s account is anchored in Trump’s public remarks; Iranian decision-making and capability timelines are contested and often opaque in public reporting.
  apnews.com
  
  
• Kosovo election leaves Kurti short of a majority, prolonging coalition arithmetic and Serbia-linked tensions: AP reports Prime Minister Albin Kurti’s party won the most votes but fell short of an outright majority, setting up coalition bargaining that can slow decision-making on governance and negotiations affecting northern Kosovo. The broader diplomatic relevance lies in the EU- and U.S.-mediated normalization track with Serbia, which remains vulnerable to domestic political constraints and periodic security flare-ups.
  apnews.com
  
  
• Central African Republic votes as Touadéra seeks a third term amid security and legitimacy concerns: The Guardian reports CAR held elections with President Faustin-Archange Touadéra seeking a third term after constitutional changes, amid opposition grievances and persistent insecurity. The political stakes include regime durability, the credibility of electoral institutions, and the continuing role of foreign security partners and armed groups in shaping state authority. Source note: the Guardian often foregrounds governance and rights issues; state-aligned narratives may emphasize stability and sovereignty, while local opposition stresses coercion and uneven access.
  theguardian.com
  
  

Geostrategic Flashpoints

• Finland arrests crew members in undersea cable damage probe, reinforcing “hybrid threat” fears in the Baltic: AP reports Finnish authorities arrested two crew members of the cargo ship Fitburg tied to damage to a critical undersea telecom cable between Finland and Estonia, and are investigating aggravated interference with telecommunications and criminal damage. Investigators said the ship appeared to have dragged its anchor for hours; customs also reportedly found sanctioned Russian structural steel aboard, raising sanctions-enforcement angles alongside sabotage concerns. The incident adds to a pattern of infrastructure disruptions in the Baltic Sea, sharpening NATO-state vigilance around subsea vulnerabilities. Source note: attribution is politically sensitive; intent (accident vs sabotage) often remains contested until technical and legal processes conclude.
  apnews.com
  
  
• Scarborough Shoal dispute broadens into an environmental-security contest as China cites drill-related reef damage: The Straits Times reports China blamed military activities (including training) and “illegal fishing” for coral-reef degradation around Scarborough Shoal—an intensifying locus of China-Philippines friction in the South China Sea. Environmental narratives increasingly function as strategic tools: they can justify patrol patterns, maritime restrictions, and “protection” regimes that carry sovereignty implications. The flashpoint risk is that routine maritime encounters—already tense—gain an additional layer of contested scientific claims and enforcement pretexts. Source note: regional outlets reflect divergent national narratives; scientific assessments may be selectively framed to support legal and operational positioning.
  straitstimes.com
  
  
• Turkey moves toward first overseas deepwater drilling off Somalia, deepening its Red Sea/Indian Ocean footprint: Reuters reports Turkey will begin its first overseas deepwater drilling operation in Somali waters in February, using the vessel Cagri Bey, following a prior energy-exploration agreement. This intersects energy security with maritime geopolitics: offshore exploration can harden strategic partnerships, justify security presence, and pull outside powers deeper into Horn of Africa dynamics. The key uncertainty is whether exploration yields commercial results; even without major finds, the move signals Ankara’s intent to project influence along critical sea lanes. Source note: official announcements can be light on reserve estimates and financing terms; operational timelines often slip.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Panama Canal influence politics flare after demolition of a monument honoring the Chinese community: The Washington Post reports a Chinese monument overlooking the Panama Canal was toppled, prompting condemnation from China’s foreign ministry and outrage within Panama, including calls for investigation and restoration. The episode lands amid intensifying U.S.-China competition over influence around the canal—an enduring strategic chokepoint—where even municipal actions can be interpreted through a great-power lens. The strategic risk is misperception: local safety/administrative claims collide with external narratives about sovereignty, coercion, and “foreign control.” Source note: U.S. media may frame events within broader U.S.-China rivalry; Panamanian domestic politics and municipal decision-making can be more proximate drivers than geopolitics alone.
  washingtonpost.com
  
  
• CSA essay argues China’s Pacific Islands engagement is shifting regional geometry through infrastructure and security ties: The Council for Strategic Affairs essay by Dr. S. Kulshrestha analyzes China’s strategic penetration in Pacific Island states, emphasizing how economic assistance, port/telecom projects, and security cooperation can translate into long-term geopolitical leverage. For flashpoint monitoring, the key issue is not only basing, but “access”: dual-use infrastructure and political alignment that can influence maritime awareness, logistics, and voting patterns in international forums. Source note: as a strategic-affairs publication, CSA presents an analytic viewpoint; readers should cross-check with local Pacific reporting and official documents for project-level detail and host-country agency.
  councilforstrategicaffairs.org

Terrorism and Conflict

• Yemen’s southern separatists announce a two-year path toward an independence referendum amid renewed fighting in Hadramout: Reuters reports the STC called for a process toward a referendum as Saudi-backed forces retook parts of Hadramout, amid a crisis that has also triggered a broader Gulf feud. The conflict’s strategic importance extends beyond Yemen’s internal map: control of southern corridors and ports shapes access to the Gulf of Aden and Red Sea approaches, with spillover risk for shipping and regional alignments. Source note: local actors’ statements are inherently political; territorial control and force posture can change rapidly on the ground.
  reuters.com
  
  
• OPEC+ meeting preview surfaces Saudi-UAE tensions linked to Yemen clashes, showing how war dynamics feed intra-bloc friction: Reuters reports OPEC+ is expected to hold output policy steady, but notes rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE connected to Yemen developments, including UAE-backed groups clashing with forces aligned with Saudi Arabia and planned UAE drawdowns. Even when oil policy stays technocratic, battlefield-linked mistrust can affect coordination capacity, side deals, and willingness to absorb economic pain for collective strategy. Source note: the Yemen component is often harder to independently verify than market data; parties may selectively brief to shape perceptions ahead of negotiations.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Iran unrest flares as Trump threatens intervention if protesters are attacked, elevating escalation risk around internal instability: Reuters reports deadly protests in Iran tied to economic distress (inflation and currency weakness), with at least several deaths and arrests, and President Masoud Pezeshkian calling for dialogue while other officials warn against foreign interference. Trump’s public threat of military intervention if demonstrators are attacked injects an external escalatory layer into domestic unrest—potentially hardening Iranian security responses and shaping regional reactions. Source note: reporting on casualty counts and security-force actions often evolves; governments and rights groups frequently provide divergent figures and interpretations.
  reuters.com
  
  
• U.S. military carries out lethal strikes on suspected drug-smuggling boats, reflecting sustained kinetic pressure on transnational criminal networks: AP reports (via PBS) the U.S. military struck and destroyed multiple boats suspected of smuggling drugs, an action that underscores the blending of security operations with counter-narcotics missions across maritime routes. The statement by U.S. Southern Command, which oversees South America, did not reveal where the attacks occurred. The strategic relevance is that illicit networks can behave like quasi-militant actors—armed, adaptive, and resilient—while state responses increasingly use military tools to impose costs. Source note: AP’s account is event-focused; follow-on reporting is often needed to clarify attribution, cargo confirmation, and legal authorities invoked.
  pbs.org
  
  
• Ukraine conflict remains volatile as Kyiv signals “90%” progress toward a deal while drone and strike exchanges continue: The Guardian’s Ukraine war briefing reports Zelenskyy saying a peace deal is close but the remaining issues are decisive, alongside continued kinetic activity including drone strikes and infrastructure damage. The tension between active diplomacy and ongoing targeting highlights a recurring pattern: battlefield pressure is used to shape bargaining positions even as talks advance. Source note: briefings aggregate multiple claims from different parties; individual incidents may later be revised as independent verification emerges.
  theguardian.com

WMD & CyberWarfare

• Moscow says Russia’s “Oreshnik” missile system is now in active service in Belarus, heightening nuclear-capable signaling in Europe: Belarus’ leader said Russia’s Oreshnik system is in active service in Belarus, a move that reinforces Moscow’s practice of using deployments and basing to message escalation capacity and complicate NATO planning. The strategic impact is less about immediate use and more about posture: dispersal, warning-time compression, and political leverage through ambiguity about conventional vs nuclear roles. Source note: official statements can be performative; independent confirmation of exact readiness levels and basing arrangements is often limited.
  pbs.org
  
  
• European Space Agency confirms cyber breach after data offered for sale: SecurityWeek reports ESA has confirmed a breach affecting a small number of external, unclassified science servers, following a hacker’s claim to be selling roughly 200 GB of stolen data online. ESA says the affected systems were outside its core corporate network, containment actions are underway, and a forensic investigation is ongoing. The incident underscores persistent cyber risk to aerospace and research institutions, with potential exposure of development artifacts and credentials even where classified systems are not involved. Source note: breach scope and data sensitivity may evolve as validation and forensic review continue.
  securityweek.com
  
  
• Korean Air reportedly impacted by Oracle E-Business Suite breach, illustrating persistent enterprise-software risk: SecurityWeek reports Korean Air data was compromised in a cyber incident tied to Oracle E-Business Suite, reinforcing how widely deployed enterprise platforms can become systemic points of failure when exploited at scale. Such incidents can create cascading risk across logistics, aviation, and customer-data environments, even absent direct state involvement. Source note: trade press is often first to surface details; affected organizations may disclose selectively while investigations are ongoing.
  securityweek.com
  
  
• North Korea tests long-range strategic cruise missiles as Kim Jong Un signals continued deterrence posture: Fortune reports North Korea conducted a test of long-range strategic cruise missiles and frames it as part of Kim Jong Un’s emphasis on strengthening deterrence capabilities. Even when described as “cruise” rather than ballistic, such systems can be central to nuclear delivery concepts and regional crisis instability, especially if paired with exercises and coercive messaging. Source note: DPRK testing details are often mediated through state media and intelligence assessments; ranges, payload assumptions, and operational readiness are frequently debated.
  fortune.com