Highlighted Works by Mackinder Forum Members

• The Great Wall Between China and the EU
  Zoltán Fehér & Valbona Zeneli
  The Diplomat
  July 19, 2025
  thediplomat.com

• Does the EU-China Summit Show a Weakened European Hand with Beijing?
  Zoltán Fehér, Bonnie Glaser et al.
  Carnegie Europe
  July 24, 2025
  carnegieendowment.org

• How Europe, the U.S. & China Compete for Global Influence
  Zoltán Fehér
  Beyond the Bubble Podcast
  July 2025
  youtube.com

• Turkey’s Time to Rise
  Kamran Bokhari
  Geopolitical Futures
  August 4, 2025
  geopoliticalfutures.com

• Where India Fits Into New US Strategies
  Kamran Bokhari
  Geopolitical Futures
  August 7, 2025
  geopoliticalfutures.com

• The ‘Catholic’ University of Scranton Hires Pro-Abortion Former Senator
  Francis P. Sempa
  The American Spectator
  August 6, 2025
  spectator.org

• Why China Sees Winning the AI Race as Existential to Its Global Power Aims
  Sam Olsen
  States of Play (Substack)
  August 2, 2025
  samolsen.substack.com
  

Geopolitical Bulletin (August 2-8, 2025)

Geoeconomics

• Global Growth Slows Amid Trade Tensions: Major brokerages (Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, etc.) forecast a late-2025 global growth slowdown due to heightened tariffs and geopolitical tensions. They peg U.S. GDP growth at only 1–2% this year as new import tariffs drive up prices. Central banks like the Fed are on pause to gauge the fallout. Meanwhile, analysts warn that U.S. tariff policies – including steep new duties on dozens of countries – risk stoking inflation and recession fears. Moody’s economist Mark Zandi blames the tariff “trade tsunami” for cooling the job market and raising consumer prices, although other experts note consumer spending remains resilient for now.
  reuters.com
  abcnews.go.com
  
  
• Trump’s Trade War Widens: The U.S. dramatically expanded tariffs on imports from many nations, sparking global trade frictions. As of August 7, Washington began collecting punitive duties – e.g. 50% on Brazilian goods, 35% on Canadian goods, etc. – under an executive order. A “regrettable oversight” initially subjected Japanese exports to double tariffs, prompting urgent talks in Washington. Tokyo’s negotiator Ryosei Akazawa secured a U.S. pledge to amend the order so a new 15% tariff isn’t stacked atop existing duties on Japanese beef and other products. The U.S. also agreed to lower auto tariffs on Japan from 27.5% to 15% per a recent trade deal. News of the fix calmed markets in Japan, boosting the Nikkei index past 3,000 for the first time as investors’ tariff fears eased. (Note: Reuters outlines these trade moves factually; Chinese and European media, however, often portray the U.S. tariff surge as economic nationalism that could backfire by inviting retaliation.)
  reuters.com
  
  
• Sanctions Squeeze Russia and Iran: After 3½ years of Western sanctions, Russia’s economy has proven resilient but strained. Moscow initially saw GDP dip in 2022, but it rebounded to 4%+ growth in 2023–24, and Russian billionaires’ wealth actually climbed 8% over the past year. Still, new sanctions are hitting key sectors. The EU just unveiled an 18th sanctions package targeting Russian oil & gas exports – crucial war funding streams. President Donald Trump has also threatened severe new U.S. sanctions on Moscow if no Ukraine ceasefire by Aug 8, though he admitted it’s unclear if sanctions “bothered” Putin. Meanwhile, Washington turned the screws on Iran’s sanction evasion networks: On Aug 7, the U.S. Treasury blacklisted 18 entities/individuals helping Tehran generate illicit oil revenue. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent vowed to “starve [Iran’s] weapons programs of capital” by cutting off these financiers. (Note: U.S. sources emphasize sanctions’ righteousness; Russian state media downplays their impact (pointing to Russia’s GDP recovery), illustrating a gap in narratives between West and Moscow.)
  reuters.com
  abc.net.au

• Emerging Markets and BRICS Reactions: The tariff barrage and sanctions are prompting strategic pivots. India reportedly paused plans to buy U.S. arms (like Stryker APCs and Javelin missiles) after Trump slapped a fresh 25% tariff on Indian goods, raising total duties to 50% in retaliation for India’s Russian oil imports. Though Delhi officially denied halting defense deals, Indian officials privately signal frustration, and this tariff spat may be temporary given Trump’s tendency to reverse course. In Africa, Kenya and Nigeria are warning that economic shocks from great-power trade wars and rising U.S. interest rates threaten their debt sustainability – a concern the IMF echoed while revising global growth forecasts downward. And with sanctions driving Russia toward China and alternative markets, BRICS nations are exploring more non-dollar trade arrangements, though divisions persist. (Note: Chinese state media portray BRICS cooperation as a “solution” to Western economic pressure, whereas Western analysts view such moves skeptically, noting continued BRICS internal disagreements.)
  defenseone.com
  
  
• China’s Export Surge Beats Forecasts: China’s exports jumped 7.2% in July (year-on-year), defying expectations, as manufacturers rushed to ship goods before Trump’s August 12 tariff deadline. Imports also rose 4.1% despite weak domestic demand, possibly due to stockpiling. Beijing’s trade truce with Washington is set to expire next week, and Trump signaled new 100% chip tariffs and penalties on nations buying Russian oil. Chinese stocks rallied on hopes the deadline might be extended, but analysts warn export growth will stall in H2 under persistently high U.S. tariffs. (Source note: Reuters; observers see a short-term export “front-loading” that masks deeper downturn risks.)
  reuters.com

Military Developments

• Arming Ukraine – New NATO Supply Lines: NATO states stepped up military support to Ukraine this week. Notably, the Netherlands announced a €500 million fund to purchase U.S. weapons for Kyiv, becoming the first ally to use a new U.S.-devised mechanism whereby Europe pays for American arms deliveries. The Dutch Defense Minister said the package will include Patriot air-defense missiles and spare parts. NATO chief Mark Rutte praised this as a model for others, hinting that “many more countries” will soon follow suit under the “Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List” (PURL) initiative. President Trump last month demanded that European allies bankroll more weapons for Ukraine – a condition now being met with this co-funding scheme. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy thanked the Netherlands, saying Europe’s contributions will “better protect” Ukraine (and Europe) from Russian aggression. (Bias note: While Western reports hail this as NATO unity, Russian media dismiss it as Europe acting under U.S. pressure, warning that more Western arms will only prolong the conflict.)
  theguardian.com
  
  
• US Military to Target Drug Cartels: In a controversial policy shift, President Trump ordered the Pentagon to use U.S. military force against “certain Latin American drug cartels” on foreign soil. According to officials, Trump’s directive authorizes Special Operations raids and naval interdictions against cartel targets in international waters and possibly in countries like Mexico, marking an unprecedented militarization of the “war on drugs.” Legal experts note this raises thorny questions: absent host-country consent or a formal AUMF, would killing cartel members be unlawful “murder” by U.S. troops? Critics point out the plan – a 2024 campaign promise of Trump’s – blurs lines between law enforcement and war. The Pentagon’s leadership shake-up (with loyalist Gen. Dan Caine as Joint Chiefs Chair) suggests fewer internal obstacles to such operations. Separately, Trump’s Attorney General even put a $50 million bounty on Venezuela’s President Maduro for alleged narco-terror ties. Bias note: U.S. outlets emphasize the legal and diplomatic risks (e.g. Mexico’s sovereignty concerns), whereas some conservative media laud Trump’s hard line. Mexican authorities have strongly protested, framing it as election posturing and warning it could backfire by fueling violence.
  defenseone.com
  
  
• Joint Exercises Signal Shifting Alliances: In a move likely to irk Moscow, Armenia is hosting a rare joint military exercise with U.S. forces on its soil. The “Eagle Partner 2025” drills (Aug 12–20) will train Armenian peacekeepers alongside the U.S. Army (including the Kansas National Guard) in medevac and peacekeeping operations. Ostensibly to prepare Armenian troops for international missions, the exercise also reflects Yerevan’s pivot toward Western security ties after frustration with Russia. Armenia’s defense ministry stressed the goal is improving interoperability and tactical communications with U.S. units. This small-scale drill (focusing on UN-style missions) nonetheless represents a symbolic snub to Russia, Armenia’s traditional ally. (Note: Russian state media cast the exercise as “NATO interference” in the Caucasus, hinting it contributed to the Kremlin’s recent coldness toward Armenia. Armenian officials counter that it’s routine peacekeeping training, pointing out similar drills held with other partners in the past.)
  armenpress.am
  
  
• China Showcases New Amphibious Assault Ship: The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) marked its 98th anniversary with high-profile military displays aimed at adversaries. This week the PLA debuted its fourth Type-075 amphibious assault ship during drills in the South China Sea – a clear signal of China’s expanding force-projection capabilities. State media also released a glossy five-part documentary flaunting new PLA weapons (unmanned systems, missiles) and progress on the Fujian aircraft carrier, using triumphant nationalist rhetoric. Notably, the PLA video included footage of a China Coast Guard operation towing a Philippine vessel away from disputed Second Thomas Shoal. Philippine officials accused Beijing of recycling old 2024 footage to exaggerate its success, underscoring the propaganda element. The film even showed a PLA exercise simulating a sudden “cold start” full-scale assault – presumably against Taiwan – to intimidate “separatists”. (Bias note: Chinese outlets celebrated these images as proof of the PLA’s growing might and “readiness” for conflict. Regional observers, however, saw it as psychological warfare; Taiwan’s government denounced the videos as attempted coercion, and pointed out internal PLA corruption purges that perhaps spurred the need for a public show of strength.)
  understandingwar.org
  
  

• Germany Halts Arms Exports to Israel: In a dramatic policy shift, Germany – historically Israel’s second-largest arms supplier – suspended all weapons deliveries that could be used in Gaza. Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced the freeze after Israel’s cabinet vowed to expand its Gaza City offensive, defying some IDF generals’ misgivings. Berlin reaffirmed Israel’s right to self-defense but warned that “tougher action” in Gaza carries consequences. This marks the most significant rift yet in Germany-Israel defense ties, reflecting growing Western unease. (Note: Defense News tends to present a European perspective emphasizing human rights concerns.)
  defensenews.com

Political and Diplomatic Developments

• Historic Armenia–Azerbaijan Peace Deal Brokered: In a breakthrough after decades of conflict, Armenia and Azerbaijan agreed to sign an initial peace accord to finally end their dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh. The White House announced that Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev will meet in Washington (hosted by President Trump) to ink the deal, calling it a “historic day for Armenia, Azerbaijan, the United States, and the world.” The agreement reportedly involves mutual recognition of borders and guarantees for the ethnic Armenian population of Karabakh. Trump – who personally engaged in mediation – touted the peace pact as a major foreign policy win. Armenia’s government is cautiously optimistic, as Western facilitation marks a shift away from Moscow’s traditional role in the Caucasus. Bias note: Russian officials reacted coolly, indicating Russia is “ready to cooperate pragmatically” but subtly bemoaning losing influence in the region. In contrast, U.S. and EU diplomats praised the deal as ending one of the post-Soviet world’s frozen conflicts.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Lebanon Backs U.S. Plan to Disarm Hezbollah: In an unprecedented move, Lebanon’s cabinet gave preliminary endorsement to the objectives of a detailed U.S. proposal to disarm Hezbollah by the end of 2025. The plan – presented by Trump’s Middle East envoy Tom Barrack – calls for removing all non-state militias’ weapons, deploying the Lebanese Army to key areas, and securing an Israeli withdrawal from positions in south Lebanon. In return, Israel would halt military operations in Lebanon and a ceasefire would be stabilized. Lebanese Information Minister Paul Morcos said Beirut only approved the “goals” of the proposal so far, not its detailed steps. Still, the fact that Lebanon publicly welcomed a U.S. disarmament initiative is remarkable – Hezbollah’s own ministers walked out of the meeting in protest. The Iran-backed group (which fought a devastating war with Israel in 2023) has long rejected calls to give up its arsenal. Iran’s Foreign Ministry downplayed the U.S. plan as nothing new and insisted Hezbollah will decide its own fate. (Note: Reuters’ reporting highlights the plan’s security logic and notes Hezbollah’s opposition. Pro-Hezbollah media in Lebanon, unsurprisingly, cast the proposal as American-Israeli diktat, warning any forced disarmament could spark internal strife.)
  reuters.com
  
  
• Lukashenko Hints at Final Term: Belarus’s longtime strongman Alexander Lukashenko, 70, signaled this week that he will not seek another presidential term, suggesting his current term (his seventh) will be his last. In an interview with Time magazine, Lukashenko stated he is “not planning” to run again and even joked that at nearly 80, Donald Trump still looks “decent” – implying age isn’t necessarily a barrier. He also dismissed speculation that he’s grooming his son Nikolai as successor (“No, no, no.”). Lukashenko has ruled Belarus with an iron fist for over 30 years; his hint at retirement is widely seen as an attempt to appease Western critics and get sanctions relief after brutally crushing protests in 2020. In the past year, he’s quietly released a few hundred political prisoners (while 1,200+ remain jailed) to signal goodwill. (Note: Reuters notes these gestures but also Lukashenko’s history of broken promises. Belarusian opposition figures are deeply skeptical – they suspect he’s merely deflecting pressure and might still maneuver to maintain power behind the scenes. For now, though, this is the first time Lukashenko has ever publicly floated stepping down, which could herald significant change in Minsk’s political landscape by the 2025–26 election timeframe.)
  reuters.com
  
  
• Thai–Cambodian Border Truce Monitored by ASEAN: Cambodia and Thailand have turned to diplomacy after a brief war scare. Late July saw a violent five-day border clash – including artillery duels and air strikes – that left 43 dead and 300,000 displaced before a ceasefire halted the fighting. This week in Kuala Lumpur, the two countries’ defense ministers agreed to let an ASEAN observer mission monitor the fragile truce in disputed border areas. Military attachés from ASEAN (led by Malaysia) will be stationed on each side of the border to verify that hostilities don’t resume. The negotiations only gained traction after external pressure – notably, U.S. President Trump warned Bangkok and Phnom Penh that trade talks with the U.S. would halt unless they made peace. That leverage helped bring both sides to the table. Now, with observers in place and follow-up talks scheduled, the hope is to prevent any reignition of Thai-Cambodian fighting, which had threatened regional stability. (Bias note: ASEAN’s mediation is presented by Southeast Asian media as a win for “Asian solutions to Asian problems.” Chinese state media, which had also urged restraint, subtly credited Beijing’s influence on Cambodia. The reality is that U.S. economic clout also forced the issue – something not lost on local commentators, who noted Trump’s transactional but effective diplomacy in this case.)
  reuters.com
  
  

Geostrategic Flashpoints

• Ukraine War – Drone Strikes and Stalemate: The war in Ukraine ground on intensely, even as talk of peace summits swirled. This week saw a surge in drone and missile attacks on multiple fronts. Russia launched dozens of Iranian-made Shahed drones overnight August 7 into Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region – Ukrainian air defenses say they shot down or jammed 89 drones, though 23 got through to hit targets at 11 locations, injuring civilians in the city of Dnipror. In turn, Ukraine struck back with its own drones, reportedly hitting a Russian oil depot and other infrastructure. Russian authorities claimed to intercept 82 Ukrainian drones (including some targeting a Kursk nuclear plant) and accused Kyiv of strikes on a railway hub in occupied territory. Each side’s information outlets emphasize the drones they downed while downplaying those that hit – a propaganda war mirroring the kinetic war. On the ground, fighting remains fiercest in eastern Ukraine: Russia is pushing a grinding summer offensive around Kupyansk and Lyman, while Ukrainian forces make incremental gains in the south. Despite Trump’s ceasefire deadline passing with no break in hostilities, both Moscow and Kyiv insist they won’t bend on core demands (Russia wants to keep occupied land; Ukraine demands full withdrawal). The prospect of a Trump-Putin meeting has not yet translated into battlefield restraint – if anything, each side might be trying to improve its position ahead of possible talks.
  rferl.org
  
  
• Gaza War Escalates, Global Fallout: The Israel–Hamas conflict in Gaza, now in its 22nd month, reached a potential inflection point. Israel’s security cabinet approved a plan to seize full control of Gaza City, aiming to decisively crush Hamas’s urban stronghold. This would be a major expansion of the IDF’s campaign and essentially an occupation of Gaza’s largest city. The announcement sparked immediate backlash internationally and domestically. Germany – a close ally – halted certain arms exports to Israel that could be used in Gaza, and Britain urged Israel to reconsider escalating the war. Inside Israel, families of Israelis held hostage by Hamas condemned the decision, fearing an all-out assault will doom the ~100 hostages’ lives. Opposition leader Yair Lapid blasted PM Netanyahu, calling the Gaza City offensive a “disaster” that ignores military advice and only satisfies far-right ministers’ demands. Netanyahu, under pressure from hardliners like Itamar Ben Gvir, insists Israel must take Gaza City to fulfill his vow to eradicate Hamas. The Israeli military is reportedly wary of the high casualties such urban warfare could entail. This move risks widening the war just as humanitarian conditions in Gaza are catastrophic. U.S. officials (including Trump’s envoy in Tel Aviv, Ambassador Mike Huckabee) defended Israel’s right to act, but also quietly urged caution. Gaza thus remains an explosive flashpoint, with even Israel’s allies now publicly splitting with Jerusalem over strategy.
  reuters.com
  
  
• China Deploys five icebreakers near Alaska in unprecedented Arctic move: For the first time, China dispatched a fleet of five icebreaking research vessels—including its domestically built Xue Long 2 and new vessels like Tan Suo San Hao and Zhong Shan Da Xue Ji Di—to operate in Arctic waters adjacent to Alaska. NORAD and USNORTHCOM, along with the U.S. Coast Guard under Operation Frontier Sentinel, are closely monitoring the flotilla as a strategic signal amid mounting Sino-Russian activities in the Arctic; Chinese sources frame it as scientific exploration, while U.S. officials emphasize sovereignty, signaling heightened competition in the region.
  twz.com
  
• Taiwan and South China Sea – Beijing’s Muscle-Flexing: The Taiwan Strait and broader Western Pacific remain tense as China projects power. To mark PLA Navy Day, China sent an aircraft carrier group through the Strait in a show of force, prompting Taiwan to scramble jets in response. And as noted above, Beijing unveiled new warship and missile capabilities in a propaganda blitz. The Chinese Coast Guard also continued its provocations in the South China Sea: on Aug 5, a China Coast Guard vessel used a water cannon to block a Philippine resupply boat near Second Thomas Shoal, in a dangerous confrontation (Manila filed a diplomatic protest). In response, the Philippines fortified its outpost there and the U.S. issued a stern warning to Beijing citing the mutual defense treaty. This comes as China’s documentary bragged about towing away a Philippine ship (footage Manila says is misleading). All sides are settling into a pattern of persistent friction. Taiwanese officials worry the PLA’s talk of “sudden assaults” in exercises could translate into a real blockade or surprise strike, though U.S. intelligence sees no immediate invasion prep. In the SCS, ASEAN countries are pushing back more – the recent ASEAN summit even mentioned China’s aggressive actions by name. The U.S., for its part, has stepped up freedom-of-navigation patrols and new defense initiatives with the Philippines and Japan, seeking to deter any miscalculation by Beijing. The flashpoint remains highly volatile; one error at sea or in the air could spiral into crisis.
  understandingwar.org

Terrorism and Conflict

• Sudan’s War Takes an Ominous Turn: The civil war in Sudan (between the Army and RSF paramilitaries) escalated with a shocking incident implicating foreign actors. Sudan’s Air Force destroyed a cargo plane from the UAE allegedly carrying dozens of Colombian mercenaries and weapons for the RSF at Nyala airport in Darfur. The airstrike (on Aug 6) killed at least 40 people onboard according to Sudanese state TV. Khartoum’s military claims the Emirati aircraft was covertly ferrying fighters to support the RSF – accusations the UAE strongly denies. Colombia’s president Gustavo Petro confirmed some Colombians died and expressed outrage that his nationals were recruited as “commodities to kill” in a distant war. U.N. experts have documented Latin American mercenaries in Darfur for months (many being ex-soldiers reportedly contracted via the UAE). This incident highlights the war’s internationalization and Darfur’s descent into chaos – thousands of civilians are besieged and at risk of starvation in El-Fasher, and cholera is spreading.
  aljazeera.com
  (Al Jazeera is a global news network financed by the Qatari state).
  
  
• Sudan Conflict Traps City in Famine: In Sudan’s Darfur war, hundreds of thousands in El Fasher are besieged by the Rapid Support Forces and surviving on animal feed after a year-long blockade cut off all aid. DW highlights the humanitarian catastrophe; RSF denies blocking food, while aid agencies say the siege is deliberate to break resistance.
  dw.com
  
  
• Pakistan Clashes with Separatists: Pakistan’s army says it killed 33 militants crossing from Afghanistan into Balochistan, then accused India of backing the fighters without offering evidence. India denies the claim, and analysts suggest the allegation may serve Islamabad’s domestic narrative more than reflect confirmed foreign involvement.
  wtop.com

WMD & Cyber Warfare

• Nuclear Rhetoric Heightens in U.S.-Russia Standoff: President Trump revealed on August 2 that he ordered two nuclear-capable submarines to “the appropriate regions” in response to ex-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s threats of nuclear war. Trump’s public move – unprecedented in its starkness – was widely seen as rhetorical posturing (the U.S. Navy keeps subs hidden as a rule). Still, arms-control experts blasted the exchange as “irresponsible,” warning that tossing around nuclear ultimatums on social media risks dangerous miscalculation. The Kremlin, notably, urged caution: spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on Aug 4 that “everyone should be very, very careful with nuclear rhetoric,” seeking to tamp down the war of words.
  reuters.com
  aljazeera.com
  (Al Jazeera is a global news network financed by the Qatari state.)
  
  
• Moscow Drops Missile Moratorium: Russia announced it is no longer bound by its Cold War-era moratorium on intermediate-range nuclear missiles, raising fears of a new arms race in Europe and Asia. Western sources frame this as escalation, while Moscow insists it is a defensive response to U.S. deployments.. (Russia’s move is seen by Western sources as escalating nuclear posturing.)
  reuters.com
  
  
• Nuclear Cruise Missile Test Imminent: Meduza reports that Russia appears ready to test its “Burevestnik” nuclear-powered cruise missile at an Arctic site, based on airspace closures, naval activity, and U.S. radiation-monitoring flights. The Kremlin has not confirmed this, and Russian state media avoid mention of the test while independent observers see it as a dangerous provocation. (Meduza – Latvia-based Russian news site often critical of the Kremlin, citing a Norwegian observer; the Russian government has not confirmed this.)
  meduza.io
  
  
• Iran’s Secret Nuclear Tech Trip: According to the Financial Times (via Israeli reporting), Iranian nuclear scientists visited Russian weapons research facilities in 2024 to seek dual-use technology and radioactive isotopes like tritium. Iran has not acknowledged the trip, and Tehran-friendly media have avoided the story while Israeli outlets present it as proof of weaponization intent.. (Note: an Israeli perspective focusing on Iran’s weapon ambitions; Iran has not admitted this collaboration.)
  timesofisrael.com