By Harry Johnson

The UK is under-prepared for the next global systemic crisis. The 21st century has witnessed a large number of notable global systems crises, including, but not limited to, the 2008 Financial Crisis, the Russo-Ukrainian War, and the COVID-19 Pandemic. Before this pandemic, the UK was considered one of the best-prepared states in the world for a major public health emergency requiring a multi-departmental response. In reality, the UK was vastly unprepared for a highly complex crisis event, as demonstrated by the state apparatus's failure to coordinate an effective response to both the pandemic’s first-order public health effects and its cascading socio-economic effects.

Following COVID-19, the UK has attempted to restructure its risk management and response architectures in an attempt to boost national resilience for when the next major crisis strikes. But is the UK actually better prepared to effectively identify forthcoming global systems shocks, and capable of coordinating a more effective response to major systemic crises? Using a mixture of available government reports, expert interviews, and secondary literature, this study examines the UK’s post-pandemic position in global systemic risk architectures. It finds that, whilst the UK has certainly improved its ability to organise a major complex crisis response post-pandemic, further improvements in adaptive governance and greater national resilience are lagging due to a lack of political and fiscal capital.

This leaves the UK inadequately prepared for forthcoming systemic crises. It additionally identifies the UK Government’s responsibility to gradually improve the UK’s fragile position across global systemic risk architectures, given its protracted position of insecurity across several complex systems. Without a concerted national emphasis on further, tangible resilience-building across the British state, the UK remains particularly exposed to forthcoming systemic shocks and ensuing global crises.

Harry Johnson recently completed his MPhil in Global Risk and Resilience at the University of Cambridge, graduating with distinction. Prior to his studies at Cambridge, he completed his undergraduate degree in international relations at the University of Edinburgh in 2025, graduating with first-class honours. His MPhil research examined systemic risks at the global scale, with a particular emphasis on how states foresee, prepare for, and manage such risks. His submission to the Mackinder Prize was adapted from his MPhil dissertation, which considered changes in the UK Government’s approach to globalised systemic risks since the COVID-19 Pandemic. Following his MPhil studies, Harry has commenced a graduate scheme with a multinational professional services firm, working within its infrastructure project management business. He is enthusiastic to continue contributing to discussions on critical infrastructure resilience, geopolitical risk, and systemic risk mitigation in line with his research.