By Ryan Santos

This presentation examines how quantum technologies are reshaping the foundations of geopolitics and great-power competition. Drawing on historical parallels such as the Allied codebreaking advantage during World War II, it argues that the advent of quantum computing - capable of breaking today’s encryption, powering advanced simulations, and transforming signals intelligence - will mark a profound inflection point in international security.

The analysis highlights three dimensions of this geopolitical shift:

(1) the erosion of cryptographic security and deterrence through “harvest now, decrypt later” threats;

(2) the fragmentation of the global economy into rival techno-spheres as states impose export controls, reconfigure supply chains, and weaponize technological standards; and

(3) the rise of quantum resource nationalism, as nations compete for talent, rare isotopes, and infrastructure in ways that may destabilize regional balances of power.

Beyond computing, the dual-use potential of quantum sensing and communications further accelerates this transformation, from undermining nuclear deterrence to fueling a new cyber arms race. Despite these disruptive implications, government and corporate awareness remains dangerously limited. This presentation contends that quantum is no longer a speculative frontier but a strategic force already tipping the balance of power.

Ryan Santos recently earned an MPhil in Management from the University of Cambridge. For his capstone project, he advised a leading telecom provider on the commercialization of quantum-secure communications in the UK as part of his capstone project. He was also an active member of the Geopolitical Risk Analysis Study Group and was named runner-up for the 2025 Mackinder Prize for his presentation on The Geopolitics of Quantum Technologies. Before Cambridge, Ryan graduated from Harvard University with an AB in History (cum laude in field) and a secondary in Economics. His thesis, The Quiet Filipino: The Philippines and the Clandestine Outsourcing of the American Wars in Indochina, 1954–1967, received high honors. At Harvard, Ryan was a two-time captain of the Harvard Rugby Football Club, the oldest rugby club in North America. Professionally, Ryan is passionate about tackling complex challenges at the intersection of finance, energy, and national security, with a particular focus on frontier markets and emerging technologies. He has previously worked in energy private equity for Bluewater in London, the Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations team at the Asian Development Bank, as a Policy Analyst at the National Security Council, and infrastructure investments with Prime Metroline Infrastructure Holdings Corporation in the Philippines. Currently based in California, Ryan is training and competing with the USA Men’s National Rugby Sevens Team as he pursues selection for the LA 2028 Olympics. Born and raised in the Philippines, he also spent parts of his upbringing in Hong Kong and South Africa.