By Victoria Xiao

Space has always been intertwined with geopolitics. What is different today is that for the first time, private capital is directly inside it. Using the SpaceX IPO as the entry point, Victoria’s presentation offers a geopolitical risk analysis and investment forecast for the emerging space economy.

The presentation identifies two distinct asset classes: Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and Geostationary Orbit (GEO) satellites, each carrying a fundamentally different investment and risk profile. Using the orbital data centre as a LEO case study, it traces supply chain vulnerabilities from Chinese-controlled rare earth materials and Taiwan-concentrated semiconductors, to unsolved heat management technology and an unresolved liability framework for satellite collisions. For GEO, it examines how radiation-hardened chip scarcity, five-year replacement timelines, and China's demonstrated satellite capture capability create risks that no current prospectus adequately discloses. Against each risk, the presentation identifies specific investment opportunities: from on-orbit servicing companies and deployable cooling systems, to the generation-defining underwriting gap in the Lloyd's market for counterspace risk products that do not yet exist at scale.

Overall, this presentation argues that the space economy demands a new analytical framework one that integrates geopolitical risk, supply chain analysis, and insurance thinking to make sense of an asset class that most financial and strategic actors are beginning to understand.

Dr Victoria Xiao is a recent PhD graduate from the University of Cambridge. Her thesis, Fractured Fantasies: Counternarratives of Chinese International Students Amidst Intensifying U.S.–China Tensions After the COVID-19 Pandemic, examines how five Chinese international students navigated intersecting power dynamics of race, gender, sexuality and citizenship in America, offering both a personal and structural account of a decade of U.S.–China geopolitical shifts seen through the eyes of those caught between them. Alongside her doctorate, Victoria has trained as a geopolitical risk analyst at Cambridge Judge Business School's Centre for Risk Studies for two years and has led over a hundred events at Queens' and King's College, connecting students with policymakers, business leaders and senior academics. Her background sits at the intersections of geopolitics, technology, and culture. She brings together rigorous analytical training with a rare cross-cultural fluency, spanning China, the United States, Japan, France and the United Kingdom, and a deep understanding of how power and narrative shape international business environments. She is currently seeking roles where strategic intelligence and cross-cultural insight translate directly into commercial impact.