2024 Events

"Not an End State but a Long Game: Israel’s Strategic Goals in the Iron Swords War"
Prof. Eitan Shamir

Abstract
Many commentators claim that Israel lacks a clear plan for “the day after” the end of the Iron Swords War. They argue that because of this supposed lack, Israel will not be able to hold onto its military achievements during the war, which will remain merely tactical. But Israel is not playing a short-term game. Beyond its declared war goals, Israel is aiming to create a new security reality in the region by weakening Iran and its proxies.  Following its security doctrine, Israel understands that it cannot impose plans or political proposals on its opponents, be they Palestinian or Lebanese – but by demonstrating its clear military superiority over them, Israel will improve its position in future negotiations. Finally, there is potential for new regional arrangements, including normalization with more Arab countries, if Israel succeeds in significantly weakening the Iranian threat. If Israel can show potential allies major military achievements against a common enemy, it can suggest a political plan that will improve its position in the region – but not before then. For Israel, there is no end game, only a long game.

Advanced Readings

• Not an End State but a Long Game: Israel’s Strategic Goals in the Iron Swords War
• The Iron Swords War: The Strategic Balance So Far and What’s Next
• BESA Center War Updates and Analysis (continually updated)

Biography

Professor Shamir currently serves as the Managing Director of the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies (BESA Center). (https://besacenter.org/director/). Additionally, he holds the position of head of the MA program in Security and Strategy within the Political Studies Department at Bar-Ilan University. Before pursuing an academic career, Dr. Shamir was the head of the National Security Doctrine Department at the Ministry of Strategic Affairs, Prime Minister's Office. Prior to his government service, he worked as a Senior Researcher at the Dado Center for Interdisciplinary Military Studies (CIMS) at the IDF General Headquarters.

His research interests and publications span various themes, including military strategy, innovation, and national security. Noteworthy works authored by Dr. Shamir include Transforming Command: The Pursuit of Mission Command in the US, UK, and Israeli Armies (Stanford University Press, 2011), Insurgencies and Counterinsurgencies: National Styles and Strategic Cultures (Cambridge University Press, 2017), and The Art of Military Innovation (Harvard University Press, 2023), which received reviews from esteemed publications such as The Wall Street Journal and Foreign Affairs. Professor Shamir's upcoming publication, slated for release in fall of 2025, is Moshe Dayan: The Making of a Strategist, published by Cambridge University Press. Additionally, he has contributed articles to leading journals such as
International Affairs, Journal of Strategic Studies, and Survival, and authored numerous book chapters.

Professor Shamir, in collaboration with Efraim Inbar, coined the term "mowing the grass" to describe Israel's strategic approach towards the terrorist organizations surrounding it. This metaphor has gained significant traction in discussions of Israeli military doctrine and regional security strategy. See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mowing_the_grass

Since the October 7 Hamas attack and the subsequent conflict in Gaza, Shamir has been interviewed by prominent media outlets such as The Economist, Financial Times, USA Today, Der Spiegel, BBC News, CNN International, The New Stateman, Ha’aretz, and the Jerusalem Post.Professor Shamir earned his PhD from the Department of War Studies at King's College

London and His Master's in Organization Behavior in Brigham Young University, Provo, UT.

"Why did Athens lose the Peloponnesian War?"
Paul Rahe, Ph.D.

Watch the recording on YouTube here.

Abstract
At the beginning of what has come to be called "the Peloponnesian war," Pericles told the Athenians that -- if Sparta was their only serious foe, if they kept up their fleet, and pursued no ulterior objects — they would "win through." Thucydides believed that the Athenian statesman's prognosis was sound. But, in the end, the Athenians did not "win through." I propose to examine why Pericles' expectations were not met.

Advanced Readings

Biography

Paul A. Rahe holds The Charles O. Lee and Louise K. Lee Chair in the Western Heritage at Hillsdale College, where he is Professor of History. He is the author of Republics Ancient and Modern: Classical Republicanism and the American Revolution (1992), Against Throne and Altar: Machiavelli and Political Theory under the English Republic (2008), Montesquieu and the Logic of Liberty: War (2009), Soft Despotism, Democracy’s Drift (2009), and of six books on ancient Lacedaemon and its grand strategy – including, most recently, Sparta’s First Attic War (2019), Sparta’s Second Attic War (2020), Sparta’s Sicilian Proxy War (2023), and Sparta’s Third Attic War (2024). In 2019, the Mackinder Forum conferred on Sparta’s First Attic War the Strategic Forecasting Book Award for Excellence in Geopolitical Analysis. On 11 April 2022, In recognition of his work on grand strategy, the University of Piraeus in Greece conferred on Professor Rahe its Themistocles Statesmanship Award.

"Plan Red: China's Project to Destroy America"
Gordon G. Chang

Watch the recording on YouTube here.

Abstract
China's regime views America as an existential threat and has a plan to destroy our society. America, however, does not have a plan to defend itself and thinks it is at peace. As a result, the Chinese state, now in distress and lashing out, can take down an unprepared America.

Biography

Gordon G. Chang is the author of Plan Red: China's Project to Destroy America, The Coming Collapse of China and China is Going to War.  

Chang lived and worked in China and Hong Kong for almost two decades, most recently in Shanghai, as Counsel to the American law firm Paul Weiss and earlier in Hong Kong as Partner in the international law firm Baker & McKenzie.

His writings on China and North Korea have appeared in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The National Interest, The American Conservative, Commentary, National Review, Barron's, and The Daily Beast. He is a columnist at Newsweek and writes regularly for The Hill.

Chang has appeared before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs and the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission. Chang has appeared on CNN, Fox News Channel, Fox Business Network, CNBC, MSNBC, PBS, the BBC, Newsmax, and Bloomberg Television. He is a regular co-host and guest on CBS Eye on the World with John Batchelor. Outside the United States he has spoken in Beijing, Shanghai, Taipei, Hong Kong, New Delhi, Seoul, Singapore, Tokyo, The Hague, London, Ottawa, Toronto, and Vancouver.

Follow him on X, formerly Twitter,  @GordonGChang

"Mackinder's Return to the Geopolitics of Energy Security (now Transition) ...or Did He Ever Leave?"
Richard Kauzlarich

Watch the recording on YouTube here.

Abstract
The complexities of the geopolitics of energy transition are best examined through the lens of the energy-producing and transit states in the Caspian Sea Region. In the late '90s, the geopolitics were straightforward. The contest over the oil-producing areas of the former Soviet states and the transportation of that oil through a pipeline system outside the control of Moscow. Mackinder would have felt very much at home in that setting. Having achieved those objectives, the US lost its geopolitical focus in the Caspian region. The geopolitics of energy security changed (the US became the world’s leading producer of oil and gas), the regional power balance shifted (the Russian invasion(s) of Ukraine, the Armenian-Azerbaijan war, the Israel-Iran conflict), and geo-economic and geo-technology competition with China rivaled the traditional geopolitics. These developments bring Mackinder back into the picture – if he ever left.

Biography

Ambassador (Ret.) Richard Kauzlarich Distinguished Visiting Professor, George Mason University Schar School of Policy, and Government. He teaches courses in the Geopolitics of Energy Security and Energy Transition, Theory and Practice of Public Policy, and Policy Communications. He is Co-Director of the Center for Energy Science and Policy (CESP) and represents Schar on the Leadership Team for the Center for Resilient and Sustainable Communities (C-RASC).He served as National Intelligence Officer for Europe on the National Intelligence Council from September 2003 to April 2011. Prior to that position, he was Director of the Special Initiative on the Muslim World at the United States Institute of Peace. Ambassador Kauzlarich joined the Institute in Spring 2002 after a 32-year career in the Foreign Service. He served as United States Ambassador to Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1997-99 and to Azerbaijan in 1994-97. He was Senior Deputy to the Secretary of State's and the President's Special Representative to the Newly Independent States (NIS) in 1993-94. He was Deputy Assistant Secretary of State in the Bureau of European Affairs in 1991-93, responsible for relations with the former Soviet Union and economic ties with the European Union. Ambassador Kauzlarich also served as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for International Organization Affairs in 1984-86 and as Deputy Director of the State Department's Policy Planning Staff in 1986-89, overseeing global and international economic issues. He was also Director of the Department of State’s Operations Center 1983-84. In addition to his ambassadorial assignments, Ambassador Kauzlarich has served at US Embassies in Ethiopia, Israel, and Togo. He received his A.A. from Black Hawk College, his B.A. from Valparaiso University, and M.A.s from Indiana University and the University of Michigan.

"Topsy Turvy in the Middle East:  The Case for Total Victory"
Professor Gwythian Prins

Abstract
A special, short notice edition of the Mackinder Forum from Gwythian Prins, Ph.D. Professor Prins very timely analysis of the current state of conflict in the Middle East will be presented.

Readings

• Topsy Turvy in the Middle East:  The Case for Total Victory

• Benjamin Netanyahu to Le Figaro:  "France should stand alongside Israel!"

Biography

Gwythian Prins MA, PhD (Cantab) FRHistS, is the Emeritus Research Professor at the London School of Economics where he established the Mackinder Program for the Study of Long Wave Events in honor of the School's early Director.  Since Putin’s war began, he has been serving as one of the MoD’s Defense Opinion Leaders. Before retirement he was Alliance Research Professor jointly at Columbia University in New York and the LSE but for most of his university career (for over twenty years) he was a Fellow and the Director of Studies in History at Emmanuel College and University Lecturer in Politics, University of Cambridge.

For a decade he helped to conduct courses in moral philosophy for young leaders at the University of Oxford. He directed the Cambridge Military Education Programs in the 1980s and he has taught at every level of British military education, for all services. He was the first British Senior Academic Visiting Fellow at the Ecole Spéciale Militaire de St Cyr, June 2016-2019. He is an Honorary Member of the Royal College of Defense Studies. From 2011 until its closure he served three CDSs on the Strategy Advisory Panel of the British Chiefs of the Defense Staff. He was thereafter a founding member of the Royal Marines Advisory Group. He is an Honorary Member of His Majesty’s Royal Marines. On retirement he served a term as a Charity Commissioner on the Board of the Charity Commission having regulatory oversight of a £58bn sector.

His many publications range from an award-winning history of western Zambia to books and essays on medical anthropology, social epidemiology of AIDS and TB (and now historical epidemiology of SARS-CoV2), on energy and environmental policy, on geo-politics, on principles of strategy, the ethics of war, on military history, on naval issues, on assessment methodology for coping with risk and uncertainty and on EU & contemporary security issues. He has recently been guiding the drafting and publication of key papers on the Covid Virus and Vaccines. He is currently the editor (in progress) of Geopolitics for Hard Times (Pen & Sword, 2025)

"War in Ukraine: Why Western Security Assistance Remains Crucial "
Dr. Alexandra Chinchilla

Abstract
Now in its third year, Russia's war in Ukraine continues at a frenetic pace, with fierce fighting in the East and constant Russian air strikes against Ukrainian cities. At the same time, Western support, while crucial to Ukraine's war effort, is increasingly called into question. The US presidential election, in particular, represents a potential inflection point in Western support. What is the current state of the war in Ukraine? Has Western support been effective? How might it evolve after November, depending on who wins? How does Western support need to evolve to match realities on the battlefield? Can Ukraine still win? This presentation addresses these questions.

Readings

• Lessons From Ukraine for Security Force Assistance
• Why America Should Send Military Advisers to Ukraine

Biography

Alexandra Chinchilla is an Assistant Professor at the Bush School of Government & Public Service at Texas A&M University and a core faculty member of the Albritton Center for Grand Strategy. She is a 2024 Non-Resident Fellow with the Irregular Warfare Initiative, a joint production of Princeton’s Empirical Studies of Conflict Project and the Modern War Institute at West Point. Previously, Dr. Chinchilla was a Niehaus Postdoctoral Fellow at The John Sloan Dickey Center for International Understanding at Dartmouth College. Her research examines international security, with a focus on security cooperation and its effectiveness—especially within NATO, Russia, and Eastern Europe. She has conducted two fieldwork trips in Ukraine since the full-scale invasion, most recently in July 2024.

"Latin America Geostrategic Importance: Assessment and Update"
Dr. Scott A Smitson

Watch the recording on YouTube here.

Abstract
From the late 1950s, with the outbreak of the Cuban revolution, to the late 1980s, when civil wars raged in Central America, Latin America found itself in the crosshairs of great power competition. Geopolitics mattered to Latin America, and Latin America mattered to geopolitics. However, as a new multipolar world order has emerged, Latin America increasingly sits at the world's geopolitical margins (at least conceptually), even as geopolitical competition is ever increasing. This has meant greater political sovereignty but continued foreign dependence. In this way, Latin American governments are freer than ever to promise their citizens more dynamic and just economies, but they are more constrained than ever when it comes to delivering on these ambitious goals. And while Latin America may seek to dodge geopolitical conflict in an age of rising tensions between great powers, isolation is the region’s own burden to bear and its own source of turmoil, and may no longer be wholly sustainable. While much of the world's focus on matters of geopolitics is dedicated to crises and conflicts in Europe, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific, Latin America remains an important, though frequently underappreciated, region for hemispheric and global affairs. This talk seeks to survey the geopolitical and geoeconomic landscape of the Latin American region, with an emphasis on great power relations in the region; the ongoing crisis between Venezuela and Guyana; prospects for the new government in Mexico; Milei's Argentina; and the major dynamic of "nearshoring" global supply chains from Asia to the Western Hemisphere. We will also discuss the role the region in playing in the so-called "energy transition", as well as the status of ongoing and planned major infrastructure projects that have the potential to significant influence Atlantic-Pacific maritime shipping and investment.

Biography

Dr. Scott A. Smitson is a Strategist, Global Futures Forecaster, Political Scientist, and Educator. Dr. Smitson is the Director of the Grand Strategy Program at Denison University and from 2022-2024 was a Chamberlain Fellow and Visiting Professor of Political Science at Amherst College. He is also the founder and Chief Strategy Officer of Geopolitics, Incorporated, which advises investors and private sector decision-makers in understanding the impact of geopolitics on the risks and opportunities in foreign markets, particularly at the interface of energy, finance, and international security. He is a retired US Army Officer, serving over twenty-one years on active duty in both combat arms and as an Army Strategist. His final assignment on active duty was as the Strategy Chief at US Southern Command (SOUTHCOM), which is the lead headquarters for all DoD activities, exercises, and engagements in Latin America and the Caribbean.

"Governing the Global Commons: Sea Power, Cyber Security, and International Organisation"
Dr. Louis Halewood &
Dr. Rory Hopcraft

Abstract
The idea of the sea as a ‘global commons’ which ought to be free for use by all nations dates back centuries, yet efforts to govern use of the world’s oceans have achieved mixed results. The first part of this talk explores attempts to cultivate international law at sea during the nineteenth century, and the subsequent creation of international organisations to manage maritime co-operation and competition between states in the twentieth century, assessing why some visions failed to achieve the intended results, as well as the legacy of more successful initiatives today. The second part of this talk analyses the continued significance of certain structures for governing the sea, especially the International Maritime Organisation. The functioning of these institutions requires further attention from scholars, particularly in terms of addressing emerging challenges to the use of the sea as this traditional commons increasingly overlaps with the new global commons of the cyber domain.

Readings
Click here to access readings.

Biographies

Dr Louis Halewood is the Philip Nicholas Lecturer in Maritime History at the University of Plymouth. He earned his DPhil in History at Merton College, Oxford, and previously completed a MA degree at the University of Calgary and a BA at the Department of War Studies King’s College London. His research focuses on sea power and world order in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, and he won the 2021 Sir Julian Corbett Prize in Modern Naval History for his work in this area. He was a Kluge Fellow at the Library of Congress in 2023, and previously held a Smith Richardson Foundation Predoctoral Fellowship at International Security Studies, Yale University.

Dr Rory Hopcraft is a lecturer in cyber security at the University of Plymouth. His PhD from the Centre of Doctoral Training in Cyber Security at Royal Holloway was in the international governance of maritime cyber security. This research, using a novel methodological approach explored the creation, and role of the international community in the development of formal and informal maritime cyber security governance mechanisms. For the past four years Dr Hopcraft has worked with the world leading research facility, Cyber-SHIP Lab where he takes on the role of Education Lead for Maritime Cyber Threats Research Group. He works closely with government agencies nationally and internationally to provide guidance on the development of future cyber security standards and requirements for the maritime sector.

"Ukraine & 21st Century Warfare"
Michael Benhamou

Abstract
The war in Ukraine is revealing something about our century: little growth, few young people, slowness, innovations no longer powerful enough to compensate for climate and resource contractions, the need to fight against players who see opportunities in such a stagnating context. America is an island that is still relatively protected from these fundamental trends, but if it is to retain its global leadership, its policy and business leaders must adapt to these changes.

Readings

• "Next for Europe: Defining its own battlefield tactics" Benhamou

• "Making Attrition Work: A Viable Theory of Victory for Ukraine" Gady

• "A Fiscal Crisis: The West is on the Wrong Side of Cost Curve" Van Wagenen

Biography

Director of OPEWI – Europe’s War Institute, a European defence think tank composed of practitioners. He was previously a Visiting Fellow at the Martens Centre, focusing on the Middle East and on European Defense, as a continuation of the work he had done at the French armed forces, NATO and the EU as a political advisor in field operations (Kosovo, Afghanistan, Libya, Gulf). Michael obtained Master degrees in History and International Relations from Sciences Po Paris and Sorbonne University. 

"Restraint, Deterrence, and Hamas' Strategy of Atrocity"
Dr. Michael Hochberg

Watch the recording on YouTube here.

Abstract
In Gaza we are seeing a new and innovative type of war being fought: Hamas is perhaps the first regime in recorded history to fight a war designed to maximize casualties among their own population. Hamas created a circumstance, through the strategic deployment of atrocity, in which Israel was faced with the choice of either not responding or responding with overwhelming force. The former would result in the collapse of the Israeli government, and in Israel's adversaries perceiving them (correctly) as devastatingly weak, due to either an unwillingness or an inability to defend themselves. The latter would inevitably result in international condemnation for the effect on Gazan non-combatants, with false accusations of "disproportionality" and alleged violations of the laws of war. Hamas's strategy of atrocity is both brilliant and evil.

Hamas’ success has shown the world that strategies of atrocity generate sympathy and restraint from the West, rather than provoking the use of decisive and overwhelming force.

Readings

• The Strategy of Atrocity in the Gaza War
• The Diffusion of Strategies of Atrocity
• Our Restraint Destroys Your Deterrence

Biography

Michael Hochberg’s career has spanned the space between fundamental research and commercialization for 25 years. He founded four silicon photonics companies - Simulant, Luxtera, Elenion, and SLS - each of which was acquired; Luxtera was acquired by Cisco and Elenion was acquired by Nokia, where Hochberg served as the CTO of the Optical Subsystems group. Hochberg has been heavily involved in a number of fields, including integrated biosensors, telecommunications, data center interconnects, supercomputing, AI hardware, quantum computing and sensing, integrated photonics, design services, digital and microwave integrated circuits, and simulation software.

During his time as a faculty member, he directed OpSIS, the first organization to offer silicon photonic multi-project wafer runs, pioneering the creation of integrated PDK's for photonics. He authored, with his colleague Lukas Chrostowski, the most widely used textbook in silicon photonics and he’s co-authored over 100 papers and patents, publishing in journals including both Science and Nature. His publications have been cited over 17,000 times. Michael won a number of awards for his work, including a Presidential Early Career Award in Science and Engineering, which is the highest honor granted by the US government to young scientists. He is a fellow of Optica, the Optical Society of America.

Michael was thrown out of high school in Louisiana and then attended a free, public residential boarding school. He ended up doing all of his degrees at Caltech, completing his MS and PHD in a total of three years and winning the best thesis award in nanotechnology.

In his spare time, he enjoys photography, sporting clays, and writing about issues of policy, geopolitics and grand strategy. His work on those topics has been published in the National Review, the Hill, Fast Company and the Naval War College Review, among others.

"Perspectives on the Hamas-Israel War"

Watch the recording on YouTube here.

Agenda
The Mackinder Forum will host a panel discussion (via Google Meet) devoted to aspects of the Hamas-Israel War.  Each panelist will consider salient issues arising from the suggested readings and/or the latest developments.  A discussion will follow. 

Panelists:

• Mr. Rodger Baker on Geopolitics of the Hamas-Israel War
• Professor Robert Destro on Diplomacy of the Hamas-Israel War
• Admiral Dr. Chris Parry on the Geostrategy of the Hamas-Israel War

Readings

• "The Betrayal of Israel by the US Administration Is Almost Complete"
• "Sinwar in Exchange for Rafah"
• "What Exactly Are We Doing?"

Panelist Biographies

• Rodger Baker is the executive director of the Stratfor Center for Applied Geopolitics at RANE, a global center of excellence for geopolitical intelligence and analysis. 
  Baker’s core emphasis is the multidisciplinary approach to geopolitics and the evolution of international relations to develop mid- and long-term forecasts to assist companies, governments and other globally engaged organizations make informed decisions.
  Baker holds a master's degree in military history from Norwich University, the oldest private military university in the United States. He has studied and worked in South Korea and graduated with honors from Southampton College, Long Island University. Baker regularly holds exchanges with academic institutes and research groups around the world and frequently travels to brief executives and corporate boards as well as deliver keynote addresses to a wide range of industry groups.

• Rear Admiral Dr. Chris Parry, CBE: After reading Modern History at Jesus College Oxford, Chris Parry spent 36 enjoyable, rewarding years in the Royal Navy as an aviator and warfare officer. He commanded the destroyer HMS GLOUCESTER, the Amphibious Assault Ship HMS FEARLESS, the UK’s Amphibious Task Group and the Maritime Warfare Centre. He also held three other senior Joint and UK Ministry of Defence strategic and policy appointments. As well as sailing every sea, he experienced regular operational tours and combat operations in Northern Ireland, the Gulf and the Falklands war, in which he detected and disabled the Argentinian submarine SANTA FE.
  Nowadays, he runs his own strategic forecasting and trouble-shooting company, advising governments, leading commercial companies and financial institutions about geo-political and strategic issues, future trends and systemic risk. With a doctorate in organisational psychology, Chris teaches strategic leadership, risk management and command psychology at universities at home and abroad, within corporates and at the UK Defence Academy. He appears as a regular broadcaster and commentator in international and UK media and is an active author.  His publications include SUPER HIGHWAY: SEA POWER IN THE 21ST CENTURY (2014) and DOWN SOUTH: A FALKLANDS WAR DIARY (2012), 

"Double Helix over Gaza"
Professor Gwythian Prins

Watch the recording on YouTube here.

Abstract
History always consists of two entwined threads: what happened and what people think and believe happened: a form of double helix. This talk will be an invitation towards an early first draft of history of the events from 7th October to the Iranian direct attack on Israel, set into this primary framing: first regionally, then more widely. The interlinked context of "CRINK" (China/Russia/Iran/North Korea) is still hazy - and the speaker claims no startling oracular powers - but the talk will suggest
that Gaza and the global blow-back fit into the pattern of an emerging global conflict that rhymes better with the eighteenth century Seven Years' War (1756-63) - in N America known as the French & Indian Wars - than with 1903-13 or 1933-39: multi- theatre; multi-modal; simultaneous; interlinked.

Readings

• A Hundred Days After Gaza's October 7 - Part 1
• A Hundred Days After Gaza's October 7 - Part 2
• A Hundred Days After Gaza's October 7 - Part 3
• A Hundred Days After Gaza's October 7 - Part 4

Biography

Gwythian Prins MA, PhD (Cantab) FRHistS, is the Emeritus Research Professor at the London School of Economics where he established the Mackinder Program for the Study of Long Wave Events in honor of the School's early Director.  Since Putin’s war began, he has been serving as one of the MoD’s Defense Opinion Leaders. Before retirement he was Alliance Research Professor jointly at Columbia University in New York and the LSE but for most of his university career (for over twenty years) he was a Fellow and the Director of Studies in History at Emmanuel College and University Lecturer in Politics, University of Cambridge. 

For a decade he helped to conduct courses in moral philosophy for young leaders at the University of Oxford. He directed the Cambridge Military Education Programs in the 1980s and he has taught at every level of British military education, for all services. He was the first British Senior Academic Visiting Fellow at the Ecole Spéciale Militaire de St Cyr, June 2016-2019. He is an Honorary Member of the Royal College of Defense Studies. From 2011 until its closure he served three CDSs on the Strategy Advisory Panel of the British Chiefs of the Defense Staff. He was thereafter a founding member of the Royal Marines Advisory Group. He is an Honorary Member of His Majesty’s Royal Marines. On retirement he served a term as a Charity Commissioner on the Board of the Charity Commission having regulatory oversight of a £58bn sector.

His many publications range from an award-winning history of western Zambia to books and essays on medical anthropology, social epidemiology of AIDS and TB (and now historical epidemiology of SARS-CoV2), on energy and environmental policy, on geo-politics, on principles of strategy, the ethics of war, on military history, on naval issues, on assessment methodology for coping with risk and uncertainty and on EU & contemporary security issues. He has recently been guiding the drafting and publication of key papers on the Covid Virus and Vaccines. He is currently the editor (in progress) of Geopolitics for Hard Times (Pen & Sword, 2025).

"Demographic change and U.S. national security"
Jack A. Goldstone, Ph.D.

Watch the recording on YouTube here.

Abstract
We are about to enter an unknown world.  Rich countries will soon have populations more aged than any known in human history (Italy this year has more people over age 80 than under age 10).  This will adversely affect the ability of Europe, the US, and Japan to pay their bills and fight wars.  However, their adversaries--Russia and China--are facing even graver demographic reversals.  This will lead to heightened risks of conflict but will prevent China (or India) from overtaking Western economies.  The countries that adapt best to this new world of exceptional aging will wield great influence.

At the same time, it is hard to imagine the future impact of Africa.  Seen as inconsequential today, just a source of industrial minerals, Africa's population is in the process of moving from just 10% of the world's population in 1980 to 38% in 2100.  In the next 25 years, over 90% of all net increase in the global labor force will be in Africa.  The struggle for influence, investment, and tapping into Africa's potential productivity will shape international competition and the growth of the world economy.  The energy path of Africa -- whose population will easily exceed that of India and China combined in 40 years--will determine the quality of our climate and environment for the rest of this century.

By 2050 Africa's 15-49 year old population will be five times as large as Europe's.  Europe therefore faces a potential surge of immigration that will empower populists and authoritarians promising to protect Europe from an "invasion".  To avoid this, Africa's own employment will need to grow dramatically, while procedures for handling the migration that Europe needs will have to be strengthened to assure that migration is regulated and secure.  With investment in education and jobs, Africa's youth can be a new motor for the world economy; but if ignored, they will be a source of conflict, easy recruits for extremist terrorism, and a source of constant pressure on the West.

Readings 

• Jack A. Goldstone, “China's Looming Demographic Disaster.” Noema Magazine. Feb. 14, 2023
• Jack A. Goldstone and John F. May, “The Global Economy's Future Depends on Africa,” Foreign Affairs. May, 2023.

Biography

Jack A. Goldstone (Phd Harvard) is the Hazel Professor of Public Policy at George Mason University.  He has also taught at Northwestern, the University of California-Davis and San Diego, the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, and the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration in Moscow.  Goldstone has published 17 books and 200 articles, including POLITICAL DEMOGRAPHY (Oxford 2012), the INTERNATIONAL HANDBOOK OF POPULATION POLICIES (Springer 2022) and REVOLUTIONS: A VERY SHORT INTRODUCTION (Oxford 2023).  

Goldstone has won Fellowships from Stanford, Australian National University, and the Guggenheim, Carnegie, and MacArthur Foundations.  He has been honored with three lifetime achievement awards--one from the International Studies Association, two from the American Sociological Association--for his research on political demography, and historical sociology.  Goldstone is currently working on his next book: "12 Billion: How Population Change will create a New World in the 21st Century, and What we must do to Secure our Prosperity, Democracy, and Environment."

"The War on Israel’s Northern Front: What is at stake and what can be done?"
Raphael BenLevi, Ph.D.

Watch the recording on YouTube here.

Abstract
While most of the world’s attention regarding Israel’s current war is focused on Gaza, Israel has been simultaneously fighting on a second front against Hizballah in Lebanon. There have been no ground invasions yet, but in all other respects, it is more severe than any of the skirmishes with Hizballah since 2006. Hizballah has been attacking Israel daily with missiles, RPGs, and drones, and has amassed ground forces along the border. To most Israelis, a full-scale war in the coming months seems inevitable. But the threat to Israel from Lebanon did not arise yesterday. This lecture will explore lessons learnt from previous wars in this theater, outline Israel’s options for action and analyze the strategic implications of a war with Hizballah for the broader geopolitical struggle in the region.

Readings

• Raphael BenLevi, “America Needs a Decisive Israeli Victory.” Tablet Magazine. 25.10.23.
• Raphael BenLevi, “Deadly Illusions: Reassessing Israel’s Military History in Lebanon,” Hashiloach Frontlines. December, 2023.
• Raphael BenLevi, “Biden Pressure on Israel Raises Chances of Full-Scale War,” National Interest, Feb.15th. 
• Raphael BenLevi, “Time to Recalibrate America’s Middle East Policy,” Hudson Institute. Jan. 27, 2023. 
• See also profile at Misgav Institute Link. And Churchill Program website Link.

Additional recommended academic readings

• Dan Naor and Eyal Lewin, “Was the 1982 Lebanon War a Deviation from Israeli Security Doctrine?” The Journal of the Middle East and Africa (2023): 1-26.
• Dalia Dassa Kaye, "The Israeli decision to withdraw from Southern Lebanon: Political leadership and security policy." Political Science Quarterly 117, no. 4 (2002): 561-585.
• Raphael BenLevi, “From supporting actor to ‘whipping the P5+ 1’: Assessing material and ideational influences on Israeli Policy toward the Iranian nuclear program (1996–2015).” Comparative Strategy 40, no. 6 (2021): 563-584. 

Biography

Dr. Raphael BenLevi is a fellow at the Misgav Institute for National Security and Zionist Strategy in Jerusalem, director of the Churchill Program for National Security at the Argaman Institute, and a Maj. (res.) in the IDF Intelligence Branch. He is author of the book: Cultures of Counterproliferation: The Making of American and Israeli policy on the Iranian Nuclear Program (Routledge, 2023). 

An expert in international relations and security studies, he served for seven years as an officer in the IDF an analyst of political-military affairs and in Israeli Air Force Headquarters. He has also been a visiting researcher at Georgetown University, a research fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), a postdoctoral fellow at the University of Haifa and has lectured at the IDF Military Command Academy. His research has been published in the academic journals including Texas National Security Review and Comparative Strategy as well as by numerous media outlets in Hebrew and English. He received his PhD from Bar-Ilan University, his MA from Reichman University (IDC Herzliya) and a B.Sc. from the Technion.

"Geopolitical Perspectives on Central Asia"
Kubilay Atik, Ph.D.

Watch the recording on YouTube here.

Abstract
Central Asia, one of the focal points of trade and movement of peoples and armies among the surrounding regions of the Middle East, Europe, India, China, and Siberia due to its landlocked position, seldom receives attention in geopolitical discourse. It has almost always been regarded as a Russian sphere of influence since the culmination of the "Great Game" between Britain and Russia, and continues to be perceived as such following the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Nevertheless, the region is not solely a repository of abundant energy and mineral resources; it also harbors diverse cultural, political, and ethnic groups dispersed across six states (including Afghanistan), and it serves as a focal point of rivalry primarily among China and Russia, but also among other external actors such as Turkey, Iran, India, and Pakistan. Moreover, it stands out as one of the few regions where the presence of the United States and European countries is comparatively unlikely. This presentation delves into the roles of regional and external actors in Central Asia, highlighting the geopolitical significance of the region and its ramifications for adjacent areas

Biography

Kubilay Atik teaches as an Associate Professor at Nevşehir University Department of History and Meiji University School of Political Science and Economics. He is currently a Visiting Professor at the University of Cambridge Department of Political Science and International Studies. His research concentrates on the Historical International Relations of East Asia and Eurasia, grand strategy, and the Mongol Empire's impact on its current successor states and geographies in terms of political and strategic thought. He earned his PhDs from the Middle East Technical University Department of History (Turkey) and Xiamen University China Studies program (China). Prior to his academic career, Kubilay Atik worked at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Turkey between 2009 and 2011 at the Office of Advisory to the Prime Minister of Turkey.

"Addressing Challenges to Allied Assurance in an Emerging Tripolar Nuclear Environment"
Michaela Dodge, Ph.D.

Watch the recording on YouTube here.

Abstract
Washington faces unprecedented challenges in understanding, shaping and meeting extended deterrence and allied assurance requirements in its bid to sustain its alliance system.  Chinese, Russian, and North Korean strategies, including regional first-use nuclear threats, are aimed at defeating U.S. extended deterrence commitments to allies and undercutting U.S. assurance goals—thereby destroying the cohesion of U.S. alliances. Failing to address the contemporary challenges to extended deterrence and allied assurance could easily lead to the unraveling of the alliance system that Washington has sustained at great cost over generations and is the critical U.S. advantage over Russia and China, and could also drive a cascade of nuclear proliferation that overturns decades-long U.S. nonproliferation efforts as some allies feel compelled to find independent means of deterrence.

Reading

• "Allied Assurance:  South Korea, Japan, and Band-Aid Diplomacy"
• "Emergine Challenges to Extended Deterrence, Assurance and the Future of U.S. Alliances"

Biography

Dr. Michaela Dodge is a Research Scholar at the National Institute for Public Policy. Prior to joining the National Institute, Dr. Dodge worked at The Heritage Foundation 2010-2019. She left Heritage to serve as Senator Jon Kyl’s Senior Defense Policy Advisor between October to December 2018. Her last position at Heritage was Research Fellow for Missile Defense and Nuclear Deterrence.  Dr. Dodge has written reports on a range of subjects, including U.S.-Czech ballistic missile defense cooperation, U.S. missile defense policy, and Russia’s influence operations in the Czech Republic during the radar debate. She has written extensively on nuclear weapons policy topics, ballistic missile defense, and arms control. Dr. Dodge published a book examining U.S.-allied post-Cold War relations and Russian influence operations entitled, U.S.-Czech Ballistic Missile Defense Cooperation: Alliance Politics in Action. She earned a PhD from George Mason University in 2019.

"The War in Gaza:  From a Local to a Regional to a Multi-Front Conflict"
Dr. Colonel (Res) Shaul Shay

Abstract
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant warned on April 20, 2023, that Israel would likely no longer see limited conflicts on single fronts, but rather would have to face a multi-front escalation in the near future.

Defense Minister Galant's warning proved to be correct and Israel is indeed in a multi-front conflict, but the assessment of the multi- front conflict threatening Israel did not help her prevent the surprise attack by Hamas which was the first step in this conflict.

Over the past decade, Iran has developed a concept known as “unity of fronts,” under which Hezbollah, Hamas and other regional allies have pledged closer cooperation. Iran’s coordination with its regional proxies since Hamas’s attack on Israel on October 7 strongly suggests that the proxies are acting as part of an Iranian-organized strategic plan.

The Iranian decision on whether to expand the war in Gaza into a regional war will be influenced by two main factors: the determination that Israel will demonstrate in the war in the Gaza Strip and its success in destroying Hamas infrastructure and the level of deterrence that the US will create for Iran and its proxies.

Readings

• Shaul Shay, "The war in Gaza from local to regional"
• "Between Gaza and Sana'a"
• Shaul Shay, "The war in Gaza and the global terror threat"
• Shaul Shay and Jacob Rosen Koenigsbuch, "Jordan and the Iranian affiliates drug offensive" 

Colonel (Res) Dr Shaul Shay served 27 years in the IDF as a paratrooper officer and in the Military Intelligence. In the 1973 war he served as a paratrooper and in the first Lebanon war in 1982 he was the G2 of an armor brigade. In the 1990s he served as the head of counter terror branch and the intelligence officer of the Southern Command.

In the years 2000 – 2007 Dr Shay was the head of the IDF Military History Department and after the second Lebanon war in the years 2007-2009 he was the deputy head of the National Security Council (NSC) of Israel.

Shaul Shay holds B.A, M.A and Ph.D. degrees from the Bar Ilan University and he is a lecturer at the Reichman University in Herzliya, Israel.

Dr. Shaul Shay is a senior research fellow of the International Institute for Counter Terrorism Policy (ICT) and former Director of Research at the Institute for Strategy and Policy (IPS) at Reichman University in Herzliya, Israel. Dr Shay is the author and the editor of 20 books, 12 of them were published in the USA and U.K. His last books are:

• Israel and Islamic terror abductions (1986 – 2016), Sussex Academic Press, 2016.

"5 Rules to Manage the Frontier"
Jakub Grygiel, Ph.D.

Reading

Biography

Jakub Grygiel is a professor of politics at The Catholic University of America (Washington, DC), a senior advisor at The Marathon Initiative, and a visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution. In 2017-2018 he was a senior advisor in the Office of Policy
Planning at the Department of State. Previously, he was the George H. W. Bush associate professor at SAIS-Johns Hopkins University in Washington DC and a senior fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis. He is the author of Classics and Strategy (The Marathon Initiative, 2022), Return of the Barbarians (Cambridge University Press, 2018), Great Powers and Geopolitical Change (Johns Hopkins University Press, 2006),
and co-author with Wess Mitchell of The Unquiet Frontier (Princeton University Press, 2016). His writings have appeared in Foreign Affairs, Foreign Policy, The American Interest, Security Studies, Journal of Strategic Studies, National Interest, Claremont Review of Books, Orbis, Commentary, Parameters, as well as several U.S. and foreign newspapers. He earned a Ph.D., M.A. and an MPA from Princeton University, and a BSFS Summa Cum Laude from Georgetown University.

"Disrupted Supply Chains in a Turbulent World"
Gordon G. Chang

Watch the recording on YouTube here.

Abstract
We could be living in the last moments before the next global war. Even if such a conflict does not erupt, there will be years of turbulence as bad actors challenge the international order. In either case, the post-Cold War period of general calm has ended. In our troubled new era, many things will be disrupted, especially supply chains. Because companies rarely anticipate epoch-changing events, expect shortages and panics. 

Biography

Gordon G. Chang is the author of The Great U.S.-China Tech War and Losing South Korea, booklets released by Encounter Books.  His previous books are Nuclear Showdown: North Korea Takes On the World and The Coming Collapse of China, both from Random House.

Chang lived and worked in China and Hong Kong for almost two decades, most recently in Shanghai, as Counsel to the American law firm Paul Weiss and earlier in Hong Kong as Partner in the international law firm Baker & McKenzie. 

His writings on China and North Korea have appeared in The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The National Interest, The American Conservative, Commentary, National Review, Barron's, and The Daily Beast. He is a columnist at Newsweek and writes regularly for The Hill.  

He has spoken at Columbia, Cornell, Harvard, Penn, Princeton, Yale, and other universities and at The Brookings Institution, The Heritage Foundation, the Cato Institute, RAND, the American Enterprise Institute, the Council on Foreign Relations, and other institutions.  He has given briefings at the National Intelligence Council, the Central Intelligence Agency, the State Department, and the Pentagon.  He has also spoken before industry and investor groups including Bloomberg, Sanford Bernstein, Royal Bank of Scotland, and Credit Lyonnais Securities Asia.  Chang has appeared before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs and the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission.  

Chang has appeared on CNN, Fox News Channel, Fox Business Network, CNBC, MSNBC, PBS, the BBC, and Bloomberg Television. He is a regular co-host and guest on The John Batchelor Show

Outside the United States he has spoken in Beijing, Shanghai, Taipei, Hong Kong, New Delhi, Seoul, Singapore, Tokyo, The Hague, London, Ottawa, Toronto, and Vancouver.

"The struggle for the Middle East between Iran and the U.S."
Michael Doran, Ph.D.

Abstract
The Israel-Hamas war, the Houthis' attacks against Western warships, and Iran's backed proxy attacks on U.S. troops have revealed the new struggle for the Middle East between Iran and the United States. What is Iran's strategy? How should the Biden administration address Tehran's threats? What are Israel's options? 

Readings

• "Biden's Ties That Bind", by Michael Doran 
• "China's emerging Middle Eastern Kingdom", by Michael Doran and Peter Rough
• "The Realignment", by Michael Doran and Tony Badran

Biography

Michael Doran is a senior fellow and director of the Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East at Hudson Institute. He specializes in Middle East security issues and co-hosts the Counterbalance podcast.

In the administration of President George W. Bush, Doran served in the White House as a senior director in the National Security Council, where he was responsible for helping to devise and coordinate United States strategies on a variety of Middle East issues, including Arab-Israeli relations and US efforts to contain Iran and Syria. He also served in the Bush administration as a senior advisor in the State Department and a deputy assistant secretary of defense in the Pentagon.

Doran  received a BA from Stanford University and an MA and PhD in Near Eastern studies from Princeton University.  Before coming to Hudson, Doran was a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. He has also held teaching positions at New York University, Princeton University, and the University of Central Florida. His latest book, Ike's Gamble, was published by Free Press in 2016. He appears frequently on television, and has published extensively in Foreign Affairs, the American Interest, Commentary, Mosaic, the Wall Street Journal,  the Washington Post, and the New York Times.

"Russia-Ukraine War: the Difficulties of Making Peace"
Beatrice Heuser, Ph.D.

Abstract
Since 1815, Making Peace has concerned not only the settlement of a particular conflict but also patterns of international relations globally, what is often referred to as an "international system".  Today, also, making peace between Russia and Ukraine concerns the international system post bellum, which is why it will be so difficult, even if we ardently wish for the killing and the maiming to cease.

Readings

• "Back to the 1930s? The Russian Invasion of Ukraine and the International System", in Janne Haaland Matlary and Robert Johnson (eds): 
• NATO and War in Ukraine (London: Hurst, expected early 2024), chapter 4.

Biography

Professor Beatrice Heuser has a B.A. in History from Bedford College, a M.A. in International History from the London School of Economics and a D.Phil. in Political Science from the University of Oxford. In addition, she holds a Higher Doctorate from the University of Marburg. She currently holds the Chair in International Relations, University of Glasgow.  She {was?/is?} seconded to the General Staff Academy of the Bundeswehr as Head of Strategy Führungs-Akademie Clausewitz Kaserne.  

Her monographs include the following titles:

*War: A Genealogy of Western Ideas and Practices (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2022)
*Strategy before Clausewitz: Linking Warfare and Statecraft (Abingdon: Routledge, 2017)
*The Strategy Makers: Thoughts on War and Society from Machiavelli to Clausewitz (Santa Barbara, CA: Praeger, 2010)
*The Evolution of Strategy: Thinking War from Antiquity to the Present (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2010)

"The Utility of Force from Ukraine to the Levant"
General Sir Rupert Smith

Abstract
Utility of Force was written in the early years of this century and published in 2005, with a second edition in 2018.  After a brief reiteration of the book's argument, I shall use the argument to examine the Russian Ukraine War and that between Israel and Hamas in Gaza.  The intention being, to test the argument and consider courses of action that might be adopted.

Readings

• The Utility of Force book (2nd ed.)
  OR
• The Utility of Force wikipedia page