Weekly Geopolitical News Bulletin:
July 19 - 25, 2025

Highlighted Works by Mackinder Forum Members

• Ukraine is a Diversion: China’s Calculated Stake in Prolonging the War
  Sam Olsen - States of Play (Substack) - July 19, 2025
  samolsen.substack.com

   

• Giving China Chips Derails Trump Decoupling
  

  Michael Sobolik - The Wall Street Journal  - July 20, 2025
  hudson.org
  
  

• As Syria Goes, So Goes the Middle East
  Kamran Bokhari - Geopolitical Futures - July 24, 2025
  geopoliticalfutures.com
  
  

• France can’t solve Britain’s reliance on America and China
  Sam Olsen - The Spectator (Coffee House blog) - July 10, 2025
  spectator.co.uk

Geopolitical Bulletin (July 12–18, 2025)

Geoeconomics

• U.S. Bets on Caucasus Trade Corridor: Forbes reported on a U.S. proposal to lease and operate Armenia’s Zangezur Corridor for 100 years, potentially unlocking $50–100 billion in Eurasian trade. The plan, aimed at bypassing the Armenia-Azerbaijan impasse, drew swift backlash – Armenia’s government rejected any “transfer of sovereign territory” to foreign control, warning of geopolitical risks even as regional players eye the corridor’s economic payoff.
  forbes.com
  
  
• China’s Rare Earth Leverage Diminishes: Chinese exports of rare-earth magnets to the U.S. surged 660% in June after a new trade pact resolved disputes over critical minerals. Beijing’s customs data show shipments rebounded sharply as China lifted export curbs in exchange for U.S. concessions (e.g. on high-end chips). While certain Chinese mineral exports remain restricted, the rare-earth détente eased supply chain fears – a rare bright spot amid broader U.S.–China trade tensions.
  reuters.com
  
  
• U.S.–Japan Tariff Deal Eases Tensions: The U.S. and Japan struck a trade agreement lowering U.S. auto tariffs to 15% (from a planned 25%), averting a trans-Pacific trade rift. Economists said the 15% rate – while higher than pre-trade war levels – is “manageable” and far preferable to the feared spike, with Japan’s Nikkei index surging 3.5% on optimism over the deal. The pact pressures China and the EU, which face similar U.S. tariff deadlines in August.
  reuters.com
  
  
• U.S. Strikes Trade Deals in Indo-Pacific: President Trump announced new trade agreements with Indo-Pacific allies. A White House deal with the Philippines set a 19% tariff on Philippine goods (just below the 20% Trump had threatened) and eliminated tariffs on U.S. exports. Manila hailed the pact as a “significant achievement,” though some analysts cautioned details remain scant. Similarly, a U.S.–Indonesia framework was outlined to lower trade barriers, as Washington deepens ties with partners shifting away from China.
  apnews.com

Military Developments

• New U.S. Arms to Ukraine: Washington approved two Foreign Military Sales packages for Ukraine totaling $322 million, including HAWK air-defense systems and Bradley fighting vehicle parts. Announced July 23, the sale (fully funded by the EU) fills critical gaps in Ukraine’s air defenses as Russia’s bombardment continues. U.S. officials said the deal – the first of Trump’s term – won’t hurt U.S. readiness. (This move drew little public criticism, though some in Congress push for stricter oversight of arms transfers.)
  apnews.com
  kyivindependent.com
  
  
• Drone Sanctions Evasion Exposed: A European intelligence leak revealed Chinese-made drone engines are reaching Russia via front companies despite Western sanctions. Reuters reports that “Garpiya” attack drones used against Ukraine were covertly equipped with Chinese motors mislabeled as “cooling units”. The illicit pipeline let Russia boost drone output to ~6,000 units/year, upending sanctions efficacy. (Beijing officially denies sanction breaches; the report, however, underscores growing Sino-Russian military links, a point of concern for NATO.)
  reuters.com
  
  
• Philippines Hosts U.S. Ammo Hub: In Washington, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. confirmed plans for a U.S.-funded munitions plant at Subic Bay. The facility – quietly approved a year ago – will produce artillery shells for joint use, bolstering allied stockpiles in Asia. Marcos welcomed it as aligning with Manila’s defense needs, but the project has stirred domestic opposition: the Philippines’ VP blasted it as not in the national interest, reflecting wariness of provoking China. (SCMP notes China’s likely disapproval but quotes Philippine officials’ support.)
  scmp.com
  
  
• Kim Jong ‑un tests coastal artillery.  North Korea’s July 23 drill, personally overseen by Kim, practiced surprise barrages against “unexpected enemy targets,” capping a week that also saw continued upgrades at Sohae launch centre.
  reuters.com
  
  
• India Tests Indigenous Hypersonic Missile: India secretly conducted a successful flight test of its new ET-LDHCM hypersonic cruise missile on July 14, with the weapon reportedly achieving Mach 8 (~11,000 km/h) and a 1,500 km range. Indian media say the scramjet-powered missile – developed under the DRDO’s classified Project Vishnu – can carry a 1–2 ton payload (conventional or nuclear) and is designed to evade air defenses, marking India’s entry into the elite club of nations with homegrown hypersonic strike capability.
  armyrecognition.com
  
  
• Big Arms Sale to Egypt Raises Eyebrows: The U.S. State Department approved a $4.7 billion sale of NASAMS air-defense systems to Egypt, including hundreds of missiles and radar units. Washington framed the July 25 deal as bolstering “a major non-NATO ally” amid Mideast instability. However, Israel and human-rights groups have in the past objected to advanced arms for Cairo, citing concerns they could alter the region’s military balance. The package (still subject to Congress approval) comes as Egypt deepens defense ties with China – context largely absent in U.S. statements.
  aljazeera.com
  (Al Jazeera is a global news network financed by the Qatari State)
  

Political and Diplomatic Developments

• Russia Revives ‘RIC’ Bloc, China Embraces Idea: Moscow floated reactivating the dormant Russia-India-China trilateral grouping (RIC), and Beijing publicly voiced support. Deputy FM Andrei Rudenko said Russia is negotiating with both Delhi and Beijing to resume RIC meetings after years of frost. China’s FM spokesperson welcomed trilateral cooperation “for regional stability”. India’s response has been cautious (amid its border frictions with China). Observers note Russia seeks to counter Western blocs by aligning with Asian powers – though whether India fully commits to this proposed power triad remains to be seen.
  thediplomat.com
  newsweek.com
  
  
• Tentative Nuclear Talks Break Ice: Senior diplomats from Iran and the EU “E3” (France, Germany, UK) met in Istanbul on July 25 to seek an end to the deadlock over Tehran’s nuclear program. The closed-door session – a rare Iran–West dialogue outside the formal JCPOA framework – ended with agreement to keep talking, according to AP, as looming “snapback” UN sanctions pressured Iran. While no breakthrough was announced, Tehran signaled willingness to consider limits on enrichment if sanctions relief follows. (Notably, hardliners in Iran denied any formal “lease” of its uranium enrichment; state media’s guarded coverage suggests cautious optimism but distrust of Western intentions.)
  apnews.com
  
  
• Ceasefire Diplomacy Falters in Gaza: Efforts to broker a humanitarian truce in Gaza stumbled as Israel and the U.S. withdrew negotiators from talks in Doha, accusing Hamas of bad-faith “selfish” demands. U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff said Hamas’s latest response “doesn’t appear coordinated or in good faith”. Israel likewise recalled its team on July 24 after what it called a “rejectionist” Hamas reply. While Israeli officials insisted the pullback “did not signal collapse” of negotiations, the pause underscored deep gaps. (Qatari-Egyptian mediators privately blamed both sides’ maximalism. The impasse drew criticism from hostage families and raised fears of a prolonged conflict.)
  timesofisrael.com
  
  
• France Recognizes Palestine, Sparks U.S.-Israel Ire: In a landmark shift, President Emmanuel Macron announced that France “will recognize the State of Palestine” at the UN General Assembly in September. France – home to Europe’s largest Jewish and Muslim communities – would be the first major Western nation to do so, aiming to revive hopes for a two-state solution. The reaction was swift and furious: Israel’s PM lambasted the move as “rewarding terror” that would create an Iranian proxy next door, and Washington blasted it as a “reckless…slap in the face” to October 7 victims. Macron’s bold diplomacy reflects growing global impatience with the Gaza war, but it puts Paris at odds with its closest allies.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Breakthrough in Congo Peace Talks: After months of Qatari mediation, the DR Congo government and M23 rebels signed a Declaration of Principles in Doha, pledging to finalize a peace agreement by August 18. The July 19 signing – witnessed by Qatar’s foreign minister – marked real progress toward ending the insurgency in eastern DRC. U.S. officials (who separately brokered Rwanda-DRC talks) had pressed hard for a deal to stabilize the mineral-rich region. While outstanding issues (disarmament, amnesty terms) remain, the truce has largely held. Note: Some Congolese observers worry that previous peace deals faltered; however, this U.S.-backed push, with regional buy-in, is seen as the best chance in years to halt the conflict.
  reuters.com

Geostrategic Flashpoints

• Thailand–Cambodia Border Erupts into Warfare: Long-simmering tensions on the Thai-Cambodian border exploded into the worst fighting in a decade. By July 25, clashes at 12 border locations had killed dozens and forced Thailand to evacuate 130,000+ civilians. Bangkok accused Cambodian forces of rocket and artillery attacks on Thai soil, warning the situation “could develop into war” if unchecked. Phnom Penh blames Thailand for igniting the crisis (rooted in disputed maps). ASEAN neighbors like Malaysia raced to mediate a ceasefire. Context: This flare-up – the most serious since the 2011 Preah Vihear clashes – underscores how quickly Southeast Asian flashpoints can reignite, though both governments insist they seek to avoid a full-scale war.
  theguardian.com
  
  
• Red Sea Heats Up – Israel vs. Houthis: The Israel–Hamas war spilled over into the Red Sea, as Israel’s military drone-struck Houthi targets at Yemen’s Hodeidah port on July 21. Israel warned the Iran-backed Houthis (who control western Yemen) would “pay a heavy price” after they launched ballistic missiles and attacked ships bound for Eilat in solidarity with Gaza. The Israeli strikes – unprecedented in Yemen – risk a new front: the Houthis retaliated with drone attacks on Israel, and shipping in the Bab al-Mandeb chokepoint is on high alert. (Notably, the U.S. quietly brokered a short-lived deal in May to halt Houthi attacks on shipping, which exempted Israel. The collapse of that understanding in Hodeidah illustrates the widening regional shadow war.)
  reuters.com
  
  
• Chinese Incursion Tests Japan’s Nerves: Japan scrambled fighter jets 157 times in April–June – mostly in response to Chinese military flights – as East China Sea tensions mount. In May, a Chinese coast guard helicopter took off from a ship near the disputed Senkaku (Diaoyu) Islands and briefly violated Japanese airspace prompting Tokyo’s protests. Japan’s defense ministry says Chinese incursions (122 in Q2, a multi-year high) now account for nearly 80% of its intercepts. Beijing denies any wrongdoing and urges Japan to “properly handle differences,” but with both sides staging frequent patrols around the Senkakus, the risk of a miscalculation remains high.
  japantimes.co.jp
  
  
• Taiwan Stages ‘Invasion’ Drills with Unofficial U.S. Support: Taiwan’s annual Han Kuang exercise – its largest war games ever – simulated repelling a full-scale PLA assault, amid record Chinese military pressure. Notably, U.S. military observers were visibly present during the July drills (the largest American delegation in memory). Taiwanese forces practiced defending beaches and critical infrastructure, while Chinese state media condemned the drills as “provocative.” Washington has avoided formal alliances with Taipei, but the unprecedented U.S. advisory role underscores deepening defense ties. Pentagon officials call Taiwan’s preparedness crucial as China’s threats grow – an assessment underscored by PLA warplane incursions that Taipei says it confronted almost daily during the exercise.
  reuters.com

Terrorism and Conflict

• Ukraine Strikes Back – Drones Hit Moscow: In a dramatic counteroffensive move, Ukraine launched mass drone attacks on the Moscow region, forcing Russia to temporarily shut all four major airports serving the capital. In the overnight assault of July 21, Russia’s MOD claims it shot down around 30 drones over Moscow (and 117 overall). Nonetheless, thousands of passengers were left stranded or sleeping on airport floors due to flight disruptions. Kyiv officially declines to comment on strikes inside Russia, but President Zelenskyy has hinted such actions are retaliation for relentless Russian bombardment. The unprecedented drone chaos in Moscow – unimaginable earlier in the war – underscores a shifting conflict: Ukraine is bringing the fight to Russia’s heartland, at least in the symbolic realm, even as its ground counteroffensive faces stiff resistance.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Sectarian Bloodbath in Syria Halted by Truce: A U.S.-brokered ceasefire took hold in Syria’s southern Sweida province after a week of vicious sectarian clashes that killed over 1,100 people. Fighting erupted July 13 between Druze militias, local Bedouin tribes, and Assad’s security forces in and around the city of Sweida – a rare anti-government region. The interim Damascus government deployed troops, only to be accused of atrocities against Druze civilians, further inflaming the violence. The truce, implemented July 21 with quiet U.S. backing, allowed hundreds of Bedouin civilians safe evacuation from Sweida under UN supervision. While uneasy calm has returned (Druze and Bedouin leaders remain tense), this spasm of internecine violence – notably drawing Israeli airstrikes on Iran-backed militias amid the chaos – highlights Syria’s fragility even after 14 years of war.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Sudan’s War Deepens Humanitarian Crisis: In Sudan, fighting between the army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) rages on with no end in sight. Battles in Khartoum and Darfur have driven over 1.3 million Sudanese to flee to neighboring countries as of July 21. Despite this massive displacement, UN agencies report only 23% of the $4.2 billion aid appeal for Sudan has been funded. Ceasefires repeatedly collapse amid mutual distrust, and recent reports allege foreign meddling (e.g. Libya’s Wagner-linked militias backing each side) – underscoring how Sudan’s internal conflict risks becoming a regional catastrophe. Aid groups warn that without more funding, millions face food and medicine shortages, even as fighting prevents relief deliveries in many areas.
  iom.int

WMD & Cyberwarfare

• Israeli Hackers Cripple Iran’s Bank: A hacktivist group calling itself “Predatory Sparrow” (linked by experts to Israel) claimed a major cyberattack on Iran’s state-owned Bank Sepah, one of the country’s largest banks. On June 17, the hackers announced they had “destroyed” vast amounts of data at Sepah – which they accuse of financing Iran’s IRGC – triggering system outages and a run on the bank’s services. Iran’s central bank downplayed the incident, but Sepah’s website went offline and customers reported being unable to access accounts. Observers note Predatory Sparrow’s past high-impact attacks (steel plants, gas stations) suggest nation-state backing. This latest strike, coming amid escalating Israel-Iran shadow conflict, could erode trust in Iran’s banking system. Tehran has vowed to bolster cyber defenses, while Israeli media (without outright crediting the attack) touts it as a blow to Iran’s financial stability.
  wsj.com
  reuters.com
  
  
• Korean Peninsula Arms Race: Regional jitters grew as South Korea signaled interest in nuclear-powered submarines to counter Pyongyang. Seoul’s incoming foreign minister, Cho Hyun, told lawmakers he will seek to amend a U.S.-ROK atomic cooperation pact (the 123 Agreement) to let South Korea develop or acquire nuclear subs for longer-range deterrence. Washington has long barred Seoul from enriching fuel for military use, and any change would require U.S. approval – but bipartisan pressure in South Korea is rising amid North Korea’s advancing nuclear arsenal. North Korea’s ongoing missile tests and talk of its own nuclear submarines have only heightened Seoul’s sense of urgency. U.S. officials publicly remain cool to South Korean nuclear subs (citing nonproliferation concerns), so this could become a point of U.S.-ROK tension if pursued further.
  armyrecognition.com
  
  

• Storm‑2603 shifts from spying to ransomware: Microsoft warned that the China‑linked hacking group Storm‑2603, previously active in SharePoint espionage, has begun deploying custom ransomware against U.S. critical‑infrastructure targets—marking a dangerous evolution from intelligence gathering to outright disruption. (Note: Beijing consistently denies state involvement in such campaigns.)
  reuters.com
  
  

• China's AI‑driven breach of the U.S. National Guard for over a year: Wired reports that China‑based threat actor Salt Typhoon spent nearly a year inside National Guard networks, using generative‑AI phishing and “living‑off‑the‑land” tactics to evade detection and exfiltrate sensitive data. The outlet’s cybersecurity focus amplifies expert worries that AI is turbo‑charging state‑sponsored espionage even as official U.S. attribution is still pending.
  wired.com