Geopolitical Bulletin (Sept 20–26, 2025)

Geoeconomics

• Trump Imposes 100% Tariff on Pharma Imports: U.S. President Donald Trump shocked allies by announcing a 100% import tariff on all foreign branded pharmaceuticals effective Oct 1 unless manufacturers build U.S. plants. The UK government warned the move could double drug prices and signaled it will lobby Washington for relief. While Trump cast the tariff as a bid to onshore production, Britain’s PM cautioned it likely heralds reduced U.S. engagement in global supply chains and shifts more burden to Europe. EU officials and industry groups are pressing for exemptions, fearing disruptions to medicine supplies.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Russian Oil Sanctions Hit Serbia: U.S. sanctions on Serbia’s Russian-owned oil company NIS will take effect Oct 1, threatening Serbia’s fuel supplies. Belgrade scrambled to calm markets, with NIS (majority-owned by Gazprom Neft) claiming it stockpiled enough crude and refined products to prevent shortages. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić had secured waivers since January but announced Washington will now enforce the ban as part of sanctions on Russia’s oil sector. NIS runs Serbia’s only refinery and provides ~80% of its gasoline and diesel. The sanctions, stemming from NIS’s dealings with Russia, could choke oil imports via Croatia’s pipeline. Serbia called the U.S. move a blow to its energy security, but U.S. officials argue it closes loopholes that let Moscow’s oil flow to Europe.
  reuters.com
  
  
• China–Mexico Trade Spat: Beijing opened an investigation into Mexico’s new import tariffs and investment restrictions on Chinese goods. Mexico – under pressure from domestic industry – plans steep duties on Chinese autos, textiles, toys and other products. China’s Commerce Ministry blasted the measures as “discriminatory” and anti-competitive. The probe, to conclude in six months, could presage Chinese retaliation if Mexico doesn’t relent. Trade analysts note this is an unusual South–South trade dispute: Mexico has sought to onshore manufacturing at China’s expense, buoyed by USMCA access. Beijing’s move ups the ante, signaling it won’t tolerate protectionism even by non-Western partners.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Moscow’s Fuel Export Ban Roils Markets: Russia moved to ban most diesel exports through year-end, extending a gasoline export halt, to curb domestic fuel shortages. Deputy PM Alexander Novak said the emergency step will flood Russia’s market with petroleum products and stabilize record pump prices. The government blames refinery maintenance and harvest-season demand, but daily Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil facilities have slashed output and storage capacity. Long fuel queues are forming in central Russia as regions ration gasoline. Global oil prices initially spiked on news the world’s No.2 diesel exporter is halting overseas sales. While Russia insists the ban is temporary, traders warn it could tighten winter fuel supplies in Europe and raise shipping costs worldwide.
  euronews.com
  
  
• Tech War Retaliation – China Blacklists U.S. Firms: Beijing added six U.S. companies to its export control and “unreliable entities” lists in a tit-for-tat response to U.S. tech curbs. China’s Commerce Ministry gave no details, but the listed firms face strict licensing requirements and potential bans. The move comes amid widening U.S. restrictions on Chinese chipmakers and AI technology. Chinese officials said Washington’s “suppression” of China’s tech rise forced a defensive response. The blacklisting – following similar Chinese actions in July – rattled investors already uneasy over the U.S.–China decoupling. Analysts note Beijing is signaling it can target American companies in China if tech sanctions intensify, injecting new uncertainty for U.S. businesses operating there.
  reuters.com

Military Developments

• IDF Advances in Gaza, Civilian Toll Mounts: The Israel–Hamas war (nearing its 12th month) ground on as Israeli forces pushed deeper into Gaza City’s ruins. The IDF’s demolition campaign has leveled “up to 20” high-rise buildings in two weeks and driven an estimated 500,000 residents to flee south. Hamas disputes that figure, saying ~900,000 civilians remain trapped (including hostages) in Gaza City’s embattled districts. The enclave’s health system collapsed amid shortages and constant bombardment. Israel claims Hamas is on the brink of defeat, but the UN warns the humanitarian catastrophe is “unimaginable” as fighting continues “block by block.”
  reuters.com
  
  
• Ukraine War – Zelenskyy’s UN Warning and Ongoing Strikes: Addressing the UN General Assembly, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy issued a stark warning that “Ukraine is only the first” and that Russia’s aggression could spread worldwide if not stopped now. He argued that halting the Kremlin’s war is far cheaper than a future where nations must build “underground schools and hospitals” or bunkers for every city to withstand Russian-style drone and missile barrages. Zelenskyy urged all countries to ramp up pressure – including “strong sanctions” and military aid – to “force the aggressor to stop” and prevent a catastrophic global arms race. Meanwhile, intense fighting continued on the ground. Russia unleashed one of its largest drone-and-missile onslaughts in months, launching 115 Shahed drones and multiple missiles at Ukrainian cities overnight, with strikes killing civilians in Zaporizhzhia and Odesa and damaging port infrastructure. Ukraine’s air defenses shot down most of the drones, and Kyiv retaliated by sending its own drones deep into Russian territory – reportedly targeting an industrial zone 565 miles east of Moscow that produces long-range attack drones. The tit-for-tat aerial attacks came as NATO condemned Russia’s “increasingly irresponsible” violations of allied airspace by Russian drones and warplanes, warning that the alliance will “use all necessary tools” to defend itself if provoked. U.S. President Trump, for his part, has toughened his rhetoric toward Moscow this week – a move aides cast as a pressure tactic – but has yet to announce any major policy shift in Washington’s support for Ukraine.
  theguardian.com
  justsecurity.org
  abcnews.go.com
  
  
• EU moves ahead with a ‘drone wall’ after Nordic airport disruptions. Following multiple drone incursions that temporarily shut Copenhagen, Billund and Aalborg airports, EU and regional ministers agreed to push a layered “drone wall” of sensors and interceptors along the eastern flank. Denmark called the incidents a “serious attack” on critical infrastructure as capitals weigh legal changes to let operators neutralize malicious drones, reflecting a shift from ad‑hoc policing to air‑defense posture.
  theguardian.com
  
  
• NATO signals harsher rules for violations as Moscow shrugs off warnings. After a string of airspace breaches (including a 12‑minute incursion into Estonia and earlier drone entries over Poland), European allies reportedly warned Russia that NATO could shoot down aircraft that cross into allied airspace; the Kremlin refused to discuss the report and called it “irresponsible.” The episode underscores a sharper deterrence line as allies link air policing to hybrid‑threat patterns around Europe. (Reuters provides hard attribution to official on‑record reactions; Russian denials are included for balance.)
  reuters.com
  
  
• Korean Peninsula: South Korea fires warning shots at DPRK vessel crossing the NLL. Seoul said a North Korean merchant ship briefly crossed the disputed Northern Limit Line near Baengnyeong Island around 5 a.m. on Sept 26; ROK forces issued audio warnings and fired warning shots, prompting a retreat with no further incident. The encounter highlights persistent flashpoint risks at sea as Pyongyang pairs growing naval probes with accelerated missile/nuclear advances. (AP’s straight‑news account cites South Korea’s Joint Chiefs; no DPRK comment was reported.)
  apnews.com

Political and Diplomatic Developments

• Poland Cautious on Trump’s Ukraine Rhetoric: Polish leaders reacted warily to President Trump’s sudden assertion that Ukraine could reconquer all Russian-occupied land. Warsaw noted Trump’s shift in tone – after hinting at reducing U.S. aid – might simply foist responsibility onto Europe. Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned allies to have “no illusions” about Trump’s commitment: behind his “surprising optimism” lies a promise of scaled-back U.S. involvement, forcing the EU to shoulder more of Ukraine’s defense. Poland, a frontline Ukraine supporter, found rare agreement across its political divide: officials welcome U.S. moral support but fear Trump’s mixed signals portend Washington stepping back. Polish President Karol Nawrocki praised Trump’s words as “great” encouragement, yet even he urges Europe to prepare to “hold the line” if U.S. priorities shift.
  reuters.com
  
  
• “Sahel Alliance” Countries Quit the ICC: The juntas ruling Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger jointly declared they will withdraw from the International Criminal Court, denouncing it as a “tool of neo-colonial repression”. In a statement, the three Sahel states – which have all experienced recent coups – accused the ICC of bias and failure to prosecute Western abuses. The move follows their exit from ECOWAS and formation of a new “Alliance of Sahel States.” All three have also expelled French forces, welcomed Wagner mercenaries, and drawn closer to Russia. Human rights groups blasted the ICC pullout, noting it comes as these militaries face credible allegations of atrocities in counterinsurgency operations. The UN voiced regret, warning that leaving the court could “shield perpetrators” amid spiraling violence. But Mali’s junta said it would “no longer abide selective justice” imposed by the West.
  reuters.com
  
  
• New Momentum for Palestinian Statehood: Amid the Gaza war’s fallout, a coalition of states moved to recognize Palestinian statehood. Ten countries – including Australia, Canada, Britain, Belgium, and Spain – announced they will formally recognize an independent State of Palestine, coordinating their declarations ahead of the UN General Assembly. The diplomatic push, the largest wave of new recognitions in years, is intended to revive the moribund two-state solution and signal support for Palestinian self-determination. Israel “firmly rejected” the announcements, arguing they reward Hamas and undermine direct negotiations. Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, in a UN speech, welcomed the recognitions as historic progress and urged more nations to follow suit. Analysts call it a symbolic but significant step that could galvanize international pressure for a post-war political horizon. However, without U.S. endorsement or Israeli consent, the practical effects remain limited.
  nytimes.com

Geostrategic Flashpoints

• Thai–Cambodian Border Tensions Simmer: Decades-old frictions on the Thailand–Cambodia border have resurfaced, testing Thailand’s new government. In July, heavy fighting erupted around a disputed temple area, killing over a dozen soldiers and civilians on each side before Malaysia brokered a ceasefire. Recently, nationalist rhetoric and local protests “raised volatility” again at the border, including an accidental cross-border shooting and rival troops fortifying positions. Both Bangkok and Phnom Penh accuse each other of encroachments near the Preah Vihear temple region, where sovereignty is contested. Observers believe domestic politics are driving the sabre-rattling – Thai leaders face pressure from ultra-nationalists, while Cambodia’s government is asserting itself post-Hun Sen. With ASEAN’s annual summit weeks away, regional diplomats moved to calm the situation. Analysts expect the ceasefire to hold, noting neither side wants to jeopardize trade or invite international mediation. Still, the flare-up is a reminder that the Thai-Cambodian border remains a powder keg that could reignite without careful management.
  channelnewsasia.com
  
  
• China deploys two “XXL” uncrewed submarines to South China Sea. NavalNews reports China moved two massive, experimental unmanned underwater vehicles of the “XXL UUV” class into the South China Sea to test endurance, payload capacity, and deep-sea surveillance capabilities. These uncrewed subs are believed to carry advanced sensors and modular payloads, potentially including undersea drones or reconnaissance systems, suggesting Beijing is pushing to extend its undersea reach. The deployment signals a new phase in underwater competition: unmanned platforms augmenting traditional bases and fleets to project power below the waves.
  navalnews.com
  
• Israel–Lebanon: precision‑missile site struck. Israel said it hit a facility in Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley used to produce precision missiles, as exchanges with Hezbollah continue despite past ceasefire frameworks. Beirut’s state news agency confirmed strikes in the area; Israel framed the raid as pre‑emptive.
  apnews.com
  
  
• India deploys curfews in Ladakh amid border tension. New Delhi imposed curfews and additional security in Ladakh after unrest tied to long‑running sensitivities along the China border, underscoring how domestic stability and external flashpoints intersect. Authorities said the measures are temporary and aimed at preventing escalation.
  reuters.com

Terrorism and Conflict

• Sudan’s War Intensifies in Darfur: In Sudan’s western Darfur region, a drone strike allegedly carried out by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary killed 15 people at a busy market in the city of el-Fasher, North Darfur’s capital. The Sept. 23 strike, which wounded a dozen others, came just days after the RSF reportedly hit a mosque in the same city, killing at least 70 civilians including worshippers and medics. El-Fasher is the army’s last stronghold in Darfur, and hundreds of civilians have been killed there in recent months as the RSF seeks to capture the city. The Sudanese military and the RSF have been locked in a brutal civil war since April 2023, with over 40,000 people killed and 12 million displaced amid widespread atrocities against civilians. The RSF has not acknowledged the market attack, instead claiming its fighters are “evacuating hundreds of civilians” from el-Fasher as battles rage in the streets.
  apnews.com
  
  
• Militant Compound Blast in Pakistan’s Khyber Region: A massive explosion tore through a compound allegedly used by Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants in Pakistan’s northwestern Tirah Valley (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province), killing at least 24 people before dawn on Sept. 22. Local police said stored bomb-making materials detonated inside the TTP facility, igniting additional munitions and flattening nearby homes. The dead reportedly included 12–14 TTP fighters (including two local commanders) and around 10 civilian villagers whom militants had used as “human shields,” according to security officials. Conflicting narratives have since emerged – a regional lawmaker claimed the deaths were caused by Pakistani airstrikes on the site, spurring thousands of residents to protest and demand justice for slain civilians. Pakistan’s Human Rights Commission said it was “deeply shocked” by reports of children among the victims and urged an inquiry. The military has denied conducting any strikes in Tirah, maintaining that the TTP’s own IED factory accidentally exploded as troops conduct ongoing counterinsurgency operations in the area. The incident comes amid a surge in TTP attacks in Pakistan’s northwest, with the group emboldened by the Afghan Taliban’s return to power and many of its fighters sheltering across the Afghan border.
  washingtonpost.com
  
  
• Mozambique (Cabo Delgado): More than 3,600 people fled from two districts of Mozambique’s northern Cabo Delgado province in a four-day span due to a resurgence of terrorist attacks by armed insurgents. According to the International Organization for Migration, non-state armed groups carried out assaults between September 19 and 22 – including an attack on Monapo village in Balama district that forced over 2,100 residents to flee. Renewed incursions in Mocímboa da Praia during the same period displaced roughly 1,185 people, many of whom have taken refuge in neighboring Mueda district. Aid agencies report urgent needs for food, shelter and protection among the 3,607 newly displaced individuals. Cabo Delgado has seen a sharp uptick in jihadist violence since July, with an Islamic State-linked insurgency driving tens of thousands from their homes in recent months.
  clubofmozambique.com
  
  
• Airstrike kills at least 30 near market in western Niger: On September 26, at least 30 people died in an airstrike near a weekly market in Niger’s Tillaberi region, a hotspot for militant activity along the Mali-Burkina border. Local sources said the death toll may actually be higher. The area is contested by Islamist groups and state forces, and such strikes reflect the escalating cycle of violence and retaliation in the Sahel.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Colombia’s Gulf Clan negotiates peace while fighting ELN over lucrative territory. El País reports that the Gulf Clan paramilitary group is engaging in peace talks with the Colombian government even as it clashes with the ELN over control of a major coca-and-gold producing region. The internal conflict underscores how criminal and insurgent actors often overlap in Colombia’s war zones, challenging the state’s efforts to stabilize rural regions. Local officials warn that any truce with one group might open the door for the other to expand influence in the vacuum. (Original article in Spanish)
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WMD & Cyberwarfare

• North Korea Expanding Nuclear Material Stockpile: South Korea has raised alarms over the scale of North Korea’s uranium enrichment, reporting that Pyongyang likely possesses about 2,000 kg of highly enriched uranium (HEU) – enough fissile material for roughly 47 nuclear bombs. Unification Minister Chung Dong-young cited new intelligence on Sept. 25 indicating the North is operating four clandestine enrichment plants continuously, with centrifuges producing HEU at 90% purity or higher. This suggests a sharp increase in North Korea’s weapons-grade uranium stockpile, far exceeding earlier estimates. Seoul warned that “stopping North Korea’s nuclear development is urgent”, but Minister Chung argued sanctions alone have failed and called for direct U.S.–North Korea talks as the only viable solution. Pyongyang’s nuclear program has been unrestrained since diplomacy stalled in 2019; Kim Jong Un recently reiterated he won’t trade away his nuclear arsenal and demanded the U.S. drop preconditions for any dialogue. With the North believed to be running multiple secret enrichment sites beyond Yongbyon, South Korean officials fear the regime is rapidly boosting its nuclear warhead potential even as international monitoring remains limited.
  aljazeera.com
  
  
• Iran’s Secret Missile Test amid Nuclear Tensions: New evidence suggests that Iran carried out an undeclared ballistic missile test on Sept. 18, defying international scrutiny even as UN sanctions are poised to snap back. Analysis of satellite images by AP and commercial firms shows a scorched launch pad at Iran’s Imam Khomeini Spaceport, indicating a recent large rocket launch that Tehran did not announce. An Iranian lawmaker claimed on state TV that a “new intercontinental ballistic missile” was tested successfully – a boast made without evidence but hinting at efforts to extend Iran’s missile range. The launch comes as a UN arms embargo and missile sanctions on Iran are set to be reimposed this weekend, and follows a brief but intense 12-day war in June during which Israel struck Iranian missile sites. Analysts note the burn pattern on the pad suggests a solid-fuel missile was fired, consistent with Iran’s drive to develop longer-range, quick-launch weapons that could potentially reach beyond the Middle East. U.S. and Israeli officials are concerned Tehran may be seeking intercontinental capabilities; a senior U.S. defense official warned that despite recent setbacks (including a U.S. B-2 bomber strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities in June), Iran is determined to rebuild and “build back better” its missile arsenal quickly. American intelligence still assesses Iran is not actively trying to produce a nuclear warhead at this time, but Tehran’s enrichment of uranium to 60% – a short step from weapons-grade – and its advancing missile tech are heightening proliferation fears.
  apnews.com
  
  
• European Air Travel Disrupted by Major Cyberattack: A cyberattack on airline IT systems caused widespread flight chaos across Europe last weekend, prompting a transnational investigation and an arrest in the UK. On Sept. 22, a ransomware-style hack crippled the check-in and boarding software provided by U.S. defense firm Collins Aerospace to numerous airports, forcing airlines to switch to manual check-ins. The outage led to hundreds of flight delays and cancellations, with Brussels Airport among the worst hit and knock-on disruptions at London Heathrow, Berlin, Dublin and others. Britain’s National Crime Agency (NCA) announced it detained a 40-something suspect in West Sussex on Sept. 24 in connection with the incident. The unnamed man was arrested under the UK Computer Misuse Act and released on bail as digital forensics continue. The NCA’s cyber unit called the arrest a “positive step” but emphasized the investigation is ongoing and spans multiple jurisdictions. Officials said the attack – which some cybersecurity analysts attribute to a ransomware operation – underscores the growing threat hackers pose to critical infrastructure. In the past year, several major UK companies (from an automaker to retail chains) have suffered costly breaches. Aviation authorities and NATO have also grown wary after Russian cyber units were linked to attempts to disrupt European air traffic networks amid the Ukraine war. The swift law enforcement response in this case reflects heightened urgency in Europe to bolster cyber defenses for transport and other vital systems.
  theguardian.com
  abcnews.go.com
  
  
• Telecom Sabotage Plot Foiled in New York During UNGA: U.S. authorities dismantled a clandestine network of electronic devices around New York City that posed an “imminent telecommunications threat” as world leaders gathered for the UN General Assembly. On Sept. 23, the Secret Service revealed it had seized over 300 rogue servers and 100,000 illicit SIM cards distributed across dozens of locations within 35 miles of Manhattan. This shadow telecom network, officials say, could have been used to disable cell towers, jam emergency communications, or enable encrypted messaging among criminal or terrorist groups planning attacks during the high-profile UN week. The investigation, involving multiple federal agencies and NYPD, was reportedly sparked by a spike in swatting and bomb threats against U.S. public officials. Notably, briefings to media indicated the discovered system was anonymously transmitting assassination threats targeting senior U.S. leaders and operating “safehouse” server farms in the region – a scale of operation one official said the Secret Service had “never seen” before. While the network’s ultimate intent remains under investigation, its neutralization was hailed as averting a potential crisis at the UN. However, some cybersecurity experts expressed skepticism, suggesting the government might be overhyping a criminal SIM-card farming ring as a grandiose terror plot. The Secret Service defended its alerts, insisting the risk of mass disruption to NYC’s cell networks was real if the devices hadn’t been taken down. This episode highlights the blurred lines between cybercrime and national security, and it prompted calls for tighter monitoring of rogue telecom equipment that could be weaponized by threat actors.
  cyberscoop.com
  secretservice.gov
  
  
• “Brickstorm”: Sophisticated Chinese Cyber-Espionage Campaign Uncovered: U.S. cybersecurity researchers have exposed a “next-level” Chinese hacking operation dubbed Brickstorm, which infiltrated American networks for extended periods to steal secrets and prepare future attacks. Investigators from Google’s Threat Intelligence Group and Mandiant revealed on Sept. 24 that an “exceptionally sophisticated” threat actor – likely linked to China – has been burrowing into targets such as tech firms and legal agencies, often remaining undetected inside networks for over a year (average “dwell time” ~400 days). The Brickstorm malware and toolkit enable the hackers to siphon intellectual property and security research, hunt for undisclosed software vulnerabilities (zero-days), and even compromise downstream clients of the primary targets. Analysts call the adversary’s methods “stealthy and complex”: the intruders avoid reusing infrastructure or malware hashes across victims, target systems (like virtual machine hosts and email gateways) that lack standard endpoint defenses, and meticulously clean up traces to evade detection. This long-term spying campaign appears aimed not just at immediate intelligence but at pre-positioning for future cyberattacks – a strategy to build a repository of software flaws and covert access points that could be weaponized down the line. The researchers see overlaps with known Chinese state-backed groups (noting similarities to Microsoft’s “Silk Typhoon” threat actor) but have not publicly attributed Brickstorm to a specific government unit. They have released a detection tool for organizations to scour their systems for Brickstorm’s fingerprints, warning that many victims likely remain unaware of breaches. The revelation underscores how Beijing’s cyber-espionage tactics continue to evolve, posing prolonged, stealthy threats to Western critical infrastructure and intellectual capital.
  cyberscoop.com