Highlighted Works by Mackinder Forum Members

• The “Forgotten Factor” in Foreign Policy
  Francis P. Sempa
  Modern Age
  November 10, 2025
  modernagejournal.com

Weekly Geopolitical Bulletin (November 8–14, 2025)

Geoeconomics

• U.S. Ends Record Shutdown Amid Economic Data Fog: The longest-ever U.S. government shutdown (43 days) ended on Nov. 12 after Congress passed and President Trump signed a stopgap funding bill. The hiatus left a gaping hole in key economic data – for instance, October’s household jobs survey was canceled – complicating Federal Reserve decisions ahead of its December meeting. Economists warn of “driving in the fog,” as Fed officials weigh incomplete employment and inflation figures. Private indicators suggest the shutdown itself acted as a demand shock, with job cuts mounting. While relief over reopening buoyed markets, analysts caution that delayed statistics and distorted baselines could hamper policy clarity. The episode underscored deep U.S. political divisions and injected uncertainty into growth forecasts, though officials moved quickly to restore data collection and back-pay federal workers.
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• Oil Prices Plunge as OPEC Sees Supply-Demand Balance: Crude oil prices fell more than $2 (over 3%) on Nov. 12 after OPEC revised its outlook to predict that global output will match demand in 2026, overturning earlier forecasts of a future supply deficit. Brent settled around $62.7 a barrel – a sharp reversal from prior gains – as traders took the OPEC report as a bearish signal. Analysts said the prospect of an adequately supplied market “drove down prices,” especially with OPEC+ pausing output hikes and some sellers struggling to find buyers. The International Energy Agency, in its own outlook, acknowledged oil demand may now grow until 2050 (later than previously assumed). Coupled with a U.S. government reopening that could spur fuel consumption, the balanced 2026 projection injected caution into oil markets, capping a period of volatility driven by shifting supply narratives and economic jitters.
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• Global Markets Slide on Fed Hawkish Signals and AI Bubble Fears: Equity indexes worldwide tumbled on Nov. 14 after top Federal Reserve officials dampened hopes for an imminent rate cut, warning inflation remains sticky. From Tokyo to Paris, stocks fell over 1%, erasing late-October gains in what one strategist called an “everything decline”. Investors have swiftly repriced expectations – futures put the chance of a December Fed rate cut at roughly 53%, down from ~67% a week earlier – as robust U.S. labor data and incomplete government statistics (due to the shutdown) cloud the policy outlook. At the same time, concerns are mounting that an investment frenzy in artificial intelligence may have overshot fundamentals, prompting a tech retreat. Safe havens ticked up: gold slid as investors sought liquidity, U.S. Treasury yields wavered, and the dollar firmed. The pullback underscored market fragility as high rates and frothy tech valuations collide.
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• U.S. Strikes Trade Pacts with Latin America to Counter ‘Non-Market’ Rivals: Washington announced framework trade agreements with Argentina, Ecuador, El Salvador and Guatemala aimed at lowering tariffs and opening markets, marking a strategic push to deepen hemispheric ties. Under the Nov. 13 deals – the first of their kind in decades – the U.S. will remove some import duties (e.g. on foods, minerals and pharmaceuticals) while those nations grant greater access for American autos, meats, and digital services. Each country pledged reforms: from Argentina’s commitment to protect U.S. firms in critical minerals, to Ecuador’s acceptance of U.S. safety standards for cars and medical devices. They also agreed to enforce labor laws and ban goods from forced labor. U.S. officials implicitly framed the pacts as forging “fair” supply chains to blunt China’s influence. While final details are pending, Latin American leaders welcomed the economic lifeline as surging crime and post-pandemic shocks batter their economies. The U.S. described the accords as a model for “friend-shoring” partnerships that strengthen allies and uphold market rules.
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• South Korea Inks $350 Bln U.S. Investment Pact as Tariffs Fall: Seoul and Washington unveiled a sweeping trade-and-investment deal on Nov. 14 that slashes U.S. auto import tariffs and channels massive South Korean capital into America’s high-tech industries. Under the accord – outlined in a joint summit fact sheet – U.S. import duties on Korean cars and parts will drop from 25% to 15%, matching levels for Japanese competitors. In exchange, South Korea’s government and firms committed to $350 billion in U.S. strategic investments by 2029, including up to $200 billion in cash installments for semiconductor fabs, EV supply chains and an Alaska LNG project. Seoul will also cap auto and pharma tariffs at 15%, securing parity in any future U.S. chip deals. To stabilize its currency amid the outflows, South Korea negotiated flexibility in funding schedules. The landmark deal – clinched after Trump’s visit to Seoul – cements South Korea as a top investor in U.S. industry while addressing bilateral trade frictions. Officials hail it as a win-win that bolsters supply chain resilience and reinforces the allies’ economic alliance.
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Military Developments

• U.S. Lethal Anti-Drug Strikes Stir Allies’ Ire: Washington’s unprecedented use of military force against drug traffickers sparked diplomatic pushback at a G7 meeting in Canada. Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended at least 19 U.S. drone and air strikes on suspected narco-shipments in the Caribbean and Pacific that have killed 76 people to date. He rebuffed European partners – France warned the strikes “violate international law” – insisting that “narco-terrorists” pose a national security threat and that the U.S. won’t let others dictate its actions. The Biden administration (2017–2021) had avoided such cross-border force; Trump’s team, by contrast, touts the campaign as cutting off fentanyl flows. Allies, however, fear a dangerous precedent. The UK reportedly even paused intel sharing, worried about legal fallout. Rubio downplayed any rift, denying any partner had curtailed cooperation. Still, the episode lays bare tensions between Washington’s aggressive new counter-cartel strategy and international norms, as Latin American governments like Venezuela brace for possible U.S. incursions.
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• Venezuela Readies Guerrilla Warfare Plan Amid U.S. Invasion Fears: Caracas has quietly instructed its outgunned military to prepare for insurgency-style resistance should the U.S. launch strikes or a ground incursion. According to leaked planning documents, President Nicolás Maduro’s forces – plagued by low morale, aging Russian arms and food shortages – would disperse into 280+ small units to wage sabotage, hit-and-run attacks and even foment urban chaos if American troops land. The plan tacitly acknowledges Venezuela’s army “wouldn’t last two hours” in open battle against the U.S.. Instead, the strategy, termed “prolonged resistance,” envisions using militias and ruling-party loyalists to make the country ungovernable for any occupier. Maduro’s ministers publicly dismiss U.S. invasion talk, but internally they were jolted by President Trump’s recent warning that “the land is going to be next” after U.S. forces struck Venezuelan-linked drug boats. American officials denied any imminent war plans, yet heavy U.S. naval activity in the Caribbean has put Caracas on edge. The episode highlights Venezuela’s isolation: lacking conventional deterrents, it’s resorting to asymmetric tactics reminiscent of Iraq’s Fedayeen or Cold War Cuba to raise the cost of any intervention.
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• Russia Mass-Producing Glide Bombs and Drones to Pound Ukraine: Moscow has launched a crash program to manufacture up to 120,000 low-cost guided glide bombs in 2025 – including a new long-range model – vastly expanding its strike arsenal. Ukraine’s intelligence warns Russia now fires 200–250 of these winged bombs per day, overwhelming Kyiv’s air defenses. Unlike expensive missiles, the 500-kg bombs can be cheaply converted from regular munitions and released from Russian jets beyond Ukrainian airspace, hitting targets 90+ km away (and possibly double that with planned upgrades). At the same time, Russia is ramping up drone output to about 70,000 long-range UAVs this year – including 30,000 Iranian-designed Shaheds – to batter Ukraine’s power grid over winter. Western analysts say this surge in “cheap but devastating” weapons portends even heavier barrages on Ukrainian cities. The intensified production, aided by covert supply networks and North Korean parts, underscores how Russia’s war machine is adapting under sanctions. Kyiv calls the glide bomb onslaught a dire new threat requiring urgent countermeasures, as even daily shoot-downs cannot keep pace with Russia’s enormous output.
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• North Korean Troops Fight (and Die) for Russia in Ukraine War: In a stark sign of deepening Moscow-Pyongyang military ties, Russia confirmed that 14,000 North Korean soldiers were deployed to help repel a Ukrainian cross-border offensive in the Kursk region last year. The Kremlin hailed the DPRK “volunteers” for their “selfless, heroic assistance” clearing mines and reinforcing positions – but Western officials note over 6,000 North Koreans were killed in intense combat. Video from Russia’s defense ministry even showed Korean sappers training alongside Russian engineers in Kursk. The unprecedented foreign troop presence on Russian soil (outside formal alliances) highlights the scale of manpower strains facing Moscow after 21 months of war. Kim Jong Un, who in October vowed “unstoppable” solidarity with Putin, has reportedly sent labor battalions and artillery shells to aid Russia. In return, analysts suspect Pyongyang seeks advanced weapons tech. U.S. and South Korean officials condemn the secret deployment as violating UN sanctions. The episode exposes how Russia is leaning on pariah partners to replenish its war effort – and how North Korea has found a battlefield to blood its troops and showcase loyalty.
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• Ecuador Weighs Return of U.S. Military Bases to Tackle Crime Wave: On Nov. 15, Ecuadorians vote in a referendum on whether to allow foreign military facilities on their soil for the first time since 2009. Conservative President Daniel Noboa champions the proposal, arguing that inviting U.S. security forces back (at ports like Manta) is crucial to curb explosive drug cartel violence that’s pushed homicide rates to record highs. Once one of Latin America’s safest countries, Ecuador has become a cocaine transit hub and seen car bombings and prison massacres linked to Mexican mafias. The Pentagon has quietly increased counternarcotics cooperation – U.S. Coast Guard strikes already sank several smuggling vessels off Ecuador’s coast this year – and Washington calls Noboa an “excellent partner.” Still, critics at home decry a loss of sovereignty reminiscent of Cold War interventions. Opinion polls show a split public. Even if the base measure fails, Quito has signed accords permitting more joint maritime patrols and surveillance flights. The plebiscite is seen as a bellwether for how Latin American nations balance desperate security needs against sensitivities over U.S. troop presence.
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Political and Diplomatic Developments

• Trump’s Nigeria ‘Genocide’ Claim Sparks African Backlash: African Union leaders rebuked President Donald Trump for alleging “very large numbers” of Christians are being slaughtered in northern Nigeria – a claim the AU says is baseless and incendiary. AU Commission Chairperson Mahamat Youssouf told the UN on Nov. 12 that “there is no genocide in Nigeria” and urged Washington to “think twice” before making such accusations. Trump had earlier threatened to send U.S. troops “guns-a-blazing” into Nigeria to wipe out Islamist militants (like Boko Haram) he blames for church attacks. Abuja’s government – a U.S. security partner – strenuously rejected the genocide claim, noting that Boko Haram’s primary victims have been Muslim civilians. Nigeria’s foreign ministry affirmed it “will continue to defend all citizens irrespective of religion” and warned against foreign intervention. The episode has jolted U.S.-Africa relations, with many Africans seeing Trump’s rhetoric as dangerously uninformed and politically motivated. Analysts say it could drive Abuja closer to alternate partners like China or Russia amid perceptions of U.S. disrespect for Nigeria’s sovereignty and complex interethnic dynamics.
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• U.S.–Russia Clash at UN Over Gaza Peace Plan: A diplomatic showdown unfolded at the UN Security Council as Russia on Nov. 13 introduced a rival Gaza resolution to counter a U.S.-drafted text endorsing President Trump’s 20-point Gaza peace plan. Moscow’s proposal pointedly omitted Washington’s envisioned “Board of Peace” transitional administration for Gaza and instead called on the UN Secretary-General to explore options for an international stabilization force. The U.S. ambassador blasted the Russian move as an attempt to “sow discord” just as negotiations on the American resolution – which would authorize a 2-year multinational security mission in Gaza – were gaining traction. Washington has secured regional backing for its blueprint (which requires Hamas’s disarmament and interim governance by an Arab-led coalition), but Russia’s veto power and its framing of a more “balanced” approach complicate passage. Both resolutions underscore big power divisions: the U.S. seeks to cement the fragile Israel-Hamas ceasefire into a long-term deal, while Russia – aligning with voices skeptical of Western-led solutions – aims to assert influence in Middle East peacemaking. The Council may pursue a compromise text, yet the duel highlights how Gaza’s future is now caught in geopolitical crosscurrents beyond the region.
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• Iran Signals Openness to Nuclear Deal as U.S. Pauses Pressure: In Abu Dhabi on Nov. 11, a senior Iranian diplomat declared Tehran wants a “peaceful” agreement with Washington to resolve the nuclear standoff – albeit “without compromising national security”. Deputy Foreign Minister Saeed Khatibzadeh’s remarks struck a conciliatory tone, noting Iran is “prepared to assure the world” it won’t seek atomic weapons. The outreach comes five months after a brief Iran–Israel war (June 2025) derailed indirect U.S.-Iran talks and saw Washington join Israel in striking key Iranian nuclear sites. Since then, Iran’s Supreme Leader has ruled out formal negotiations under threat, and hardliners accuse the U.S. of “betraying diplomacy.” However, President Trump – having achieved a Gaza deal – stated in October the U.S. is ready for a deal “when Iran is ready”. Analysts say Iran’s softened rhetoric likely aims to ease sanctions and avoid another conflict, especially after devastating Israeli-U.S. strikes on its nuclear facilities. Still, major gaps remain (the U.S. wants Iran’s enrichment halted entirely), and it’s unclear if Trump will recalibrate his maximalist stance. Gulf observers cautiously welcomed Iran’s message but note words alone won’t rebuild trust absent concrete de-escalation steps on both sides.
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• Thai–Cambodian Ceasefire Frays, Testing Trump’s Mediation: A delicate peace between Thailand and Cambodia – brokered personally by President Trump in October – teetered this week after new border violence erupted. On Nov. 11, Thailand suspended its ceasefire pact with Cambodia one day after a landmine blast on the frontier maimed four Thai soldiers. Bangkok accused Cambodian forces of planting fresh Soviet-era PMN-2 mines in disputed areas, calling it a grave violation of last month’s truce agreement. Phnom Penh vehemently denied laying new mines, insisting the explosion occurred in an old minefield and urging Thai patrols to stay clear. The escalating recriminations threaten to unravel a U.S.-facilitated deal that ended five days of deadly clashes in July (48 killed) by pulling back heavy weapons and exchanging POWs. The State Department said it’s gathering facts but urged both sides to uphold the “expanded truce” they signed with Trump’s backing. Analysts note hardliners in both Thailand and Cambodia were uneasy with the U.S. role, and any perception of cheating could collapse the deal. The flare-up underscores the fragility of Trump’s peace-brokering in Southeast Asia, where deep-rooted mistrust and unresolved border demarcations continue to menace regional stability.
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Geostrategic Flashpoints

• China Issues Blunt Taiwan Warning to Japan: In an extraordinary outburst on Nov. 14, Beijing warned Japan that any military intervention in a Taiwan conflict would invite a “crushing defeat” reminiscent of World War II. China’s foreign ministry castigated new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi for recent comments pledging to help defend Taiwan, accusing her of “reviving wartime militarism” – rhetoric evoking Japan’s 1930s invasions. China even advised its citizens not to travel to Japan amid the spat. Tokyo swiftly summoned China’s ambassador to protest the “unacceptable” remarks, which come after a week of tit-for-tat insults on social media between Chinese diplomats and Japanese officials. The flare-up underscores intensifying Sino-Japanese tensions over Taiwan, which Beijing considers its territory. Japan, as a U.S. ally, has grown more vocal about Taiwan’s security; Takaichi recently indicated a Taiwan contingency could threaten Japan’s own survival. But Beijing’s aggressive language – including personal attacks on Takaichi – is unusually direct. Analysts say it may partly be aimed at domestic audiences (stoking nationalism), yet also raises the risk of miscalculation. The U.S. reiterated its commitment to Japan’s defense, while quietly urging restraint on all sides. The incident highlights the Taiwan Strait’s volatility as a flashpoint drawing in multiple powers’ red lines.
  
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• North Korea Threatens ‘Offensive Action’ as U.S. Carrier Docks in Busan: Pyongyang ratcheted up tensions on the Korean Peninsula, firing a ballistic missile and vowing to take “more offensive action” in response to a high-profile U.S.–South Korea defense meeting and the visit of the USS George Washington aircraft carrier. North Korean defense chief No Kwang Chol on Nov. 8 denounced this week’s U.S.–ROK security talks – which discussed integrating nuclear and conventional deterrence – as proof of “hostile intent,” and blasted fresh U.S. sanctions on North Korean officials as provocative. Just a day earlier, the North test-fired a short-range ballistic missile into the sea (its third launch in two weeks). South Korea’s military condemned the missile test and reaffirmed readiness, while Washington noted the launch did not threaten U.S. or allied territory. Significantly, Trump – visiting Seoul for a summit – had publicly renewed an invitation for Kim Jong Un to resume talks. Kim has so far ignored the overture. Instead, Pyongyang appears to be leveraging shows of force to gain leverage, showcasing new missiles (including claims of a hypersonic weapon) and asserting that pressure will be met in kind. The situation remains tense as allied drills continue and North Korea signals it will not stand down without concessions.
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• Poland Eases Belarus Border Curbs Amid Waning Wagner Threat: In a sign of slight de-escalation on NATO’s eastern flank, Poland announced it will reopen two major road crossings with Belarus on Nov. 17, after having shut them in September due to Russian-led military drills and drones infringing its airspace. Warsaw’s interior ministry said the step aims to restore the flow of people and goods – important for cross-border workers and trade – given “expectations” from local communities and businesses. The closures, along with Lithuania’s parallel border shutdown, were imposed when Moscow deployed thousands of Wagner mercenaries and staged exercises in Belarus, raising fears of provocations. Tensions spiked over reports of Belarusian helicopters and even spy balloons crossing into NATO territory. While Polish officials emphasize they remain vigilant (pointing to 21 Russian drones that intruded Polish skies this fall), they judged the immediate security risk has ebbed enough to reopen Bobrowniki and Kuźnica crossings for EU-registered traffic. Relations between Poland and Belarus remain at a historic low since Russia’s Ukraine invasion and Minsk’s ongoing migrant “hybrid warfare” at the border. But the carefully calibrated reopening – coordinated with Lithuania – suggests an attempt to balance deterrence with normalcy. Observers note the move could reduce local economic pain and signal to Minsk that NATO won’t be provoked into overreaction, even as it stands ready to re-close crossings if threats resurge.
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• West Bank Flashes as Settler Attacks Surge Post-Gaza War: With Gaza’s fighting paused, the occupied West Bank has emerged as a volatile flashpoint. In early November, Israeli settlers – some masked and armed with clubs – carried out a series of violent assaults on Palestinian villagers and even journalists during the annual olive harvest. On Nov. 8, dozens of settlers from an illegal outpost near Nablus stormed a Palestinian farming area, torching a mosque, burning homes and wounding at least four people. Two Reuters staff were among those injured by stone-throwing vigilantes. The Israeli army intervened, arresting a few suspects. Prime Minister Takaichi’s right-wing government (in power since mid-2024) includes settler leaders and has been accused of tacitly encouraging land grabs. The UN warns that unchecked settler violence could spark broader clashes, especially with Palestinian Authority control eroding. Indeed, Hamas has called on West Bank youths to “resist” settler incursions, raising fears the West Bank could ignite even as Gaza’s guns fall silent. International observers urge Israel to rein in extremists and protect Palestinian civilians under its occupation, lest grassroots anger explode into a third intifada.
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Terrorism and Conflict

• Sudan War Enters New Phase Amid Atrocities in Darfur: Sudan’s brutal civil war escalated eastward after the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) consolidated control of Darfur last month and pivoted to attack the Kordofan region. On Nov. 13, the U.S. and UN demanded a ceasefire following credible reports the RSF massacred large groups of civilians while overrunning Al-Fasher, the army’s last Darfur stronghold. Witnesses described revenge killings and summary executions in Al-Fasher and the town of Bara (North Kordofan), with bodies left in streets and men shot for alleged loyalty to the army. “They said you celebrated with the army…we have to kill you,” recalled one survivor of an RSF firing line. The violence carries an ethnic tint, as Darfur’s conflict did – RSF fighters (largely Arab) have targeted communities seen as pro-army (often non-Arab). The war, now 2.5 years old, has triggered famine conditions and displaced millions, with tens of thousands missing after recent battles. The RSF accepted a U.S.-proposed humanitarian truce in principle, but Sudan’s army under Gen. Burhan is refusing, skeptical of RSF intentions. Fighting continues around Kordofan’s oil fields and state capitals. The UN Human Rights Council voted to dispatch a fact-finding mission, although Khartoum’s unstable government may not cooperate. Meanwhile, harrowing accounts of systematic rape and child abductions are emerging from Darfur’s refugee women, raising the specter of genocide. With diplomacy faltering and foreign arms fueling both sides, Sudan’s nightmare grinds on unchecked.
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• Russia Grinds Forward in Bloody Battle for Pokrovsk: Intense urban combat rages in the eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk (Donetsk oblast) as Russian forces press a year-long campaign to capture the strategic logistics hub. By Nov. 12, Moscow claimed its troops had pushed deeper into the ruined city – using pincer movements to encircle pockets of Ukrainian defenders – and urged Kyiv’s trapped units to surrender “to save themselves”. Ukraine’s General Staff acknowledged its position in Pokrovsk is “difficult” and that Russian assault groups are present in multiple districts, but denied any units are fully surrounded. Ukrainian brigades are mounting fierce counterattacks to keep supply routes open and prevent a complete encirclement “cauldron”. The city’s pre-war 60,000 population has almost entirely fled, leaving a wasteland of pulverized buildings and craters. Military analysts note Russia shifted tactics here – relying on infiltration teams, drones, and heavy bombardment instead of frontal assaults – creating an ambiguous “grey zone” where control is fluid but favors Russian momentum. If Pokrovsk falls, it would be Moscow’s biggest gain since Avdiivka (2024) and open the road to Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. President Zelenskiy insisted that Russian advances have slowed and inflicted huge casualties (claiming 300 Russians killed in one day). Still, with over 150,000 Russian troops massed in Donbas for this push, Ukraine faces a brutal battle of attrition that could prove pivotal to the war’s next phase.
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• Suicide Bombing in Islamabad Underscores Pakistan’s Fragile Security: A suicide bomber detonated explosives outside a bustling courthouse in Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad, on Nov. 11, killing at least 12 people – including police officers and lawyers – and wounding dozens. The brazen attack, the first major terror bombing in the city in years, jolted the government: Defense Minister Hamid Khan declared Pakistan in a “state of war” against resurgent militants and ordered the army to bolster security nationwide. No group immediately claimed responsibility, but officials suspect the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) or ISIS-Khorasan, which have both stepped up attacks since the Afghan Taliban’s 2024 rise. The blast comes amid a spate of terrorism – including a car bombing in Lahore and twin blasts in Balochistan – that has killed over 60 people in recent weeks. The Islamabad bomber struck around midday at the district court entrance, sending human remains flying (eyewitnesses described a “traumatizing scene”). Sri Lanka’s visiting cricket team, playing in nearby Rawalpindi, briefly considered halting their tour due to security fears. In response, Pakistan’s government deployed troops to sensitive sites and formed a Joint Investigation Team to probe possible cross-border ties (accusing hostile intelligence agencies of backing local jihadists). The spike in violence is straining Pakistan’s interim administration ahead of January elections, as public anxiety grows and foreign partners like China and Saudi Arabia urge stronger counterterror measures.
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• Hamas Executes Suspected ‘Collaborators’ as Gaza Transition Stalls: In the wake of an October ceasefire that ended two years of war, Hamas has moved to entrench its rule in Gaza – including the extrajudicial killing of dozens of Palestinians accused of aiding Israel. Human rights groups report that Hamas security forces swiftly rounded up alleged collaborators, thieves and informants in areas evacuated by Israeli troops and carried out summary executions during early November, in some cases without public trials. Residents describe a climate of fear, with bodies of those branded traitors left as warnings. The crackdown complicates U.S.-led post-war plans: Washington insists “Hamas will not govern Gaza” long-term, envisioning a technocratic Palestinian administration and a multinational security force to assume control. Hamas publicly says it’s committed to a “smooth transition” and willing to cede authority, but on the ground it is levying new import fees, policing markets, and proving it remains the de facto power. With nearly 2 million Gazans reliant on Hamas-run services and foreign reconstruction aid slow to materialize, many doubt the militant group will actually disarm or withdraw as the U.S. peace blueprint dictates. Gaza now faces a potential de facto partition – Israeli forces still occupy roughly half the strip, while Hamas tightens its grip on the rest. The situation is a volatile mix: a devastated population, a stalled diplomatic process, and an emboldened Hamas unwilling to be sidelined, all raising the risk that conflict could reignite if governance and security gaps are not urgently addressed.
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WMD & Cyberwarfare

• ‘Foreign Hackers’ Target Russia’s Ports in Wartime Cyber Skirmish: Russia’s largest port operating company, Port Alliance, reported that its sea terminals suffered a three-day onslaught of cyberattacks in an apparent attempt to disrupt key exports. The Nov. 13 statement said hackers from abroad launched a coordinated distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) barrage and attempted intrusions aiming to cripple systems managing coal and fertilizer shipments across ports in the Baltic, Black Sea, Arctic and Far East. Russian engineers managed to repel the attacks, and Port Alliance insisted operations continued normally. While no culprit was named, Moscow implied a link to the Ukraine war: since the 2022 invasion, Russian infrastructure has faced a sharp uptick in cyber offensives, with government sites and companies frequently hit by pro-Ukraine hacktivists or Western intelligence agencies. Indeed, Ukraine’s IT Army has previously claimed credit for briefly knocking Russian port websites offline. Conversely, Kyiv endures relentless Russian cyber strikes on its grids and government networks. The attempted port hack – likely aimed at choking Russia’s commodity exports – highlights how cyber warfare is shadowing the physical conflict. It also shows Russia’s resiliency: despite regular DDoS attacks “from abroad”, critical Russian logistics systems have largely stayed online. Still, the incident marks an escalation in scope (attacking multiple maritime hubs simultaneously) and underscores that no aspect of Russia’s economy is off-limits in the hybrid war raging beyond the battlefield.
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• U.S. Sanctions Global Network Supporting Iran’s Missile Program: The U.S. Treasury on Nov. 12 imposed sweeping sanctions on 32 individuals and entities across Asia, Europe and the Middle East accused of procuring parts and technology for Iran’s ballistic missile and drone programs. Those designated span Iran’s Defense Industries Organization and its suppliers in China, Turkey, the UAE, Hong Kong, and even Germany and Ukraine. The move – one of Washington’s largest missile-related sanction actions to date – seeks to disrupt Tehran’s illicit supply chains that obtain everything from guidance electronics to specialty metals. Treasury officials warned these networks contribute to systems that threaten “U.S. and allied personnel in the Middle East and commercial shipping in the Red Sea”. The sanctions freeze any U.S.-linked assets of the targets and bar transactions with them. This comes as Western capitals worry Iran is improving missile accuracy and range (e.g. the new Kheibar missile tested in 2023). Iran’s foreign ministry blasted the sanctions as “escalatory”, denying any intent to pursue nuclear weapons. Notably, the sanctions also hit middlemen in India – a rare inclusion that shows Washington’s broad net. While U.S. officials acknowledge such measures haven’t halted Iran’s advances outright, they argue sustained financial pressure raises costs and slows progress on missiles and the UAVs that Iran has been supplying to Russia for the Ukraine war. The move also coincides with quiet U.S.-Iran diplomatic feelers, suggesting Washington may be calibrating pressure while leaving room for a broader deal.
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• North Korea Showcases Missile Advances with Hypersonic and Cruise Launches: Pyongyang has ramped up missile testing to an unprecedented tempo, unveiling new capabilities despite UN sanctions. In late October, North Korea fired multiple short-range ballistic missiles, including what it claimed was a hypersonic glide vehicle, as well as several sea-launched cruise missiles. The tests – timed around President Trump’s visit to South Korea for a regional summit – were meant to demonstrate the North’s evolving arsenal after a period of relative restraint. South Korean and Japanese radars tracked the ballistic missiles flying ~700 km, confirming they fell outside Japan’s EEZ. Kim Jong Un touted the “hypersonic” trial (likely a maneuverable warhead capable of high-speed atmospheric reentry) as a breakthrough to penetrate U.S. defenses – though Western experts express skepticism about its maturity. Still, even the claim of hypersonic capability underscores Pyongyang’s intent to diversify beyond conventional Scuds. The simultaneous launch of a sea-to-surface cruise missile also marked the North’s first known test of an anti-ship or land-attack cruise system from a vessel. Washington and Seoul worry these advances complicate early-warning and interception. Notably, the barrage came as Trump again invited Kim to resume talks – a proposal met with silence in Pyongyang. Analysts see Kim as telegraphing that North Korea will continue to bolster its deterrent (now potentially including gliders and nuclear-capable cruise missiles) until it wins sanctions relief or security concessions at the negotiating table.
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