Highlighted Works by Mackinder Forum Members
Weekly Geopolitical News Bulletin (Nov 29 - Dec 5, 2025)
Geoeconomics
- OPEC+ Prioritizes Stability Over Output Hikes: At its Nov 30 meeting, OPEC and allies (OPEC+) agreed to hold oil production steady through Q1 2026, slowing efforts to regain market share amid fears of oversupply. Members reaffirmed existing cuts totaling ~3.2 million barrels per day (≈3% of global demand) and paused previously planned output hikes. The move comes as Brent crude hovers near $63 (down 15% in 2025), and as a potential Russia–Ukraine peace could lift sanctions on Russian oil – a factor OPEC+ is cautiously monitoring.
reuters.com
- OECD: AI Boom Offsets Tariff Shocks, but Risks Remain: The OECD slightly upgraded its 2025 global growth forecast to 3.2%, crediting resilient demand and an investment boom in artificial intelligence despite U.S. tariff hikes. The Paris-based group warned that higher tariffs will gradually drag on growth, and investor “AI optimism” could backfire if overblown. It urged vigilance against renewed trade tensions and noted global trade growth may slow from 4.2% in 2025 to 2.3% in 2026 as existing tariffs bite. The OECD also flagged rising U.S. deficits and China’s steady but slowing growth, calling for policies to ensure a “resilient, AI-enabled” but balanced expansion.
apnews.com
- China’s Exports Rebound Amid Tariff Truce with US: After a surprise dip in October, China’s exports likely returned to growth in November, aided by a late-October tariff truce between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. Chinese manufacturers sped up shipments to leverage the eased tariffs: exports were forecast to rise ~3.8% year-on-year after a 1.1% fall in October (the worst in 9 months). Imports also picked up modestly. However, Beijing’s exporters still face headwinds from slowing global demand and past trade barriers, and factory activity remains weak. With Trump’s tariffs still averaging 50% on Chinese goods, China is sticking to ~5% GDP growth targets and shifting to boost domestic demand and tech self-reliance in its next five-year plan.
reuters.com
- G7 Eyes Tighter Oil Sanctions on Russia: The G7 and EU are in talks to ban Western maritime services for Russian oil exports, replacing the existing price cap mechanism, according to an exclusive Reuters report. The proposed full services ban – which could be in the next Russia sanctions package in early 2026 – aims to cut Kremlin oil revenues that fund the war in Ukraine. Western shippers still carry roughly one-third of Russia’s oil (mostly to India and China). The ban would force Moscow to rely entirely on its “shadow fleet” of older, opaque tankers. U.S. and UK officials back the plan, though its timing may hinge on Ukraine peace talks brokered by Washington. If enacted, it would mark the toughest Western measure yet, essentially a near total embargo on Russian oil dealings.
reuters.com
- Argentina Seeks Market Comeback Under New Administration: Just weeks after his election, Argentine President Javier Milei is moving to re-engage global capital markets. On Dec 5, the government announced a tender for a new 4-year US dollar bond governed by local law. The “Bonar” bond (6.5% coupon, maturing 2029) will be auctioned on Dec 10 without needing Congress’s approval. Milei’s economically conservative team aims to rebuild investor confidence and replenish dollar reserves after years of overspending and a 2020 debt default locked Argentina out of financing. Analysts expect the bond to price around 86 cents on the dollar (yield ~10.5-11%). The move is a first step to normalize Argentina’s credit, though sustained fiscal discipline and anti-inflation measures will be crucial to regain market access.
reuters.com
Military Developments
- Battle for Pokrovsk – Russia Claims Win, Ukraine Disputes: Intense fighting rages in eastern Ukraine. Moscow announced its forces fully captured the city of Pokrovsk, a logistics hub, and President Putin hailed the “important victory” as advancing Russia’s war aims. The timing – just before U.S.-Russia peace talks – appeared calculated to project battlefield momentum. However, Ukraine’s military denied Pokrovsk fell, insisting its troops still hold the north and even counterattack in the south. “The enemy is trying to sell its desires as reality,” a Ukrainian airborne unit scoffed. While video showed a Russian flag raised downtown, Reuters could not verify full control. If taken, Pokrovsk would be Russia’s biggest gain since Avdiivka in 2024, but Kyiv calls the claim propaganda amid ongoing fierce urban combat.
reuters.com
- U.S. Presses for “Phase 2” in Gaza Strategy to Curb Escalation. The U.S. administration is working to transition the Gaza conflict into a less intense “Phase 2,” aiming to scale down Israel’s high-intensity military operations in favor of more targeted strikes against Hamas leadership. According to U.S. officials cited in the Times of Israel, this shift would also include expanded humanitarian aid, civilian safe zones, and preliminary discussions on post-war governance—though no formal timeline has been finalized. Israeli leaders, however, have reportedly pushed back, asserting that Hamas must be fully dismantled before any de-escalation occurs. The U.S. is coordinating the plan with regional stakeholders including Egypt and Qatar. While the article avoids naming the current U.S. president, it emphasizes that American officials are seeking to publicly declare the shift to Phase 2 within weeks, reflecting growing international pressure to limit civilian harm and prevent wider regional destabilization.
timesofisrael.com
- US Defense Chief Under Fire for Mishandling Strike Plans: A Pentagon watchdog found that U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth violated policy by sharing secret military plans over an unsecured channel. According to the DoD Inspector General’s report, Hegseth disclosed details of a planned March airstrike on Yemen’s Houthi rebels in a Signal messaging group chat, using his personal cellphone. The IG warned that if foreign adversaries had intercepted the Signal texts, it “could have endangered U.S. troops and missions”. Lawmakers from both parties blasted Hegseth’s lapse – Senator Mark Warner called for his resignation, saying military leaders “must never put our service members at unnecessary risk”. Hegseth, a close Trump ally, has rejected calls to quit, claiming on social media that the report “totally exonerates” him and insisting he shared no classified information. The scandal raises concerns about operational security and civilian oversight of the military.
theguardian.com
- Fighting Flares in DR Congo Despite New Peace Deal: Hopes for peace in the Democratic Republic of Congo suffered a setback as heavy fighting erupted within a day of a high-profile peace signing. On Dec 4, U.S. President Trump hosted Congo’s President Félix Tshisekedi and Rwanda’s Paul Kagame in Washington to ink deals ending the long-running conflict in mineral-rich eastern DRC. Yet by Dec 5, the M23 rebel group reported government forces (allegedly backed by Burundi) launched widespread attacks on rebel-held areas. Kinshasa, in turn, accused Rwandan troops of a cross-border bombing campaign. M23 claims it shot down a Congolese surveillance drone and retook the town of Luberika amid the clashes. The escalation threatens to unravel Trump’s “peace deal,” underscoring deep mistrust. Analysts note that decades-old grievances between Congo, Rwanda, and proxy militias cannot be resolved overnight, and warn that without robust monitoring, the region’s cycle of insurgency may continue.
reuters.com
Political and Diplomatic Developments
- Putin’s India Visit Deepens Moscow-Delhi Ties, Defies U.S.: Russian President Vladimir Putin made a high-profile visit to New Delhi, shoring up a crucial partnership even as the U.S. pressures India to distance itself from Moscow. Meeting PM Narendra Modi at the Dec 5 India-Russia summit, Putin vowed to ensure “uninterrupted” oil supplies to India and praised the relationship as “resilient to external pressure”. The two leaders finalized an economic cooperation roadmap aiming to double bilateral trade to $100 billion by 2030 and agreed on joint defense production projects. Notably, Trump’s America loomed in the background: Washington recently slapped 25% tariffs on India over its Russian oil buys. Putin and Modi’s talks signaled a united front against U.S. sanctions – Putin even remarked that if the U.S. can import Russian nuclear fuel, “why shouldn’t India?”. While Modi carefully avoided directly mentioning oil, India reaffirmed energy security as a “pillar” of ties. The optics – Modi personally welcoming Putin at the airport, warm embraces – underscored that New Delhi will not abandon a longtime ally.
theguardian.com
- Progress (and Peril) in U.S.–Russia Peace Talks on Ukraine: Behind closed doors, Washington and Moscow have been negotiating over Ukraine’s future. This week the Kremlin struck an optimistic tone, saying “progress” is being made in talks with U.S. envoys and that Russia is “ready to continue working” with Trump’s team. President Putin held an extraordinary 5-hour meeting in Moscow with Trump’s special envoy (and son-in-law) Steve Witkoff on Dec 2. Putin reportedly “accepted some elements” of a U.S. peace proposal while insisting on full control of Ukraine’s Donbas and threatening to seize it by force if Kyiv doesn’t withdraw. Trump called the discussions “reasonably good” but acknowledged no clear breakthrough yet. Kyiv, notably absent from these U.S.-Russia talks, is wary – Ukraine’s FM demanded “real peace, not appeasement,” fearing Trump might pressure Kyiv into painful concessions. Indeed, critics warn any U.S.-Russia deal could sideline Ukraine’s sovereignty. For now, diplomacy is inching forward even as fighting persists. Both sides agreed to keep talking, and analysts suggest a tentative framework (likely a ceasefire and phased withdrawals) is under discussion, though major hurdles – like the status of occupied territories – remain unresolved.
reuters.com
- Sudan Crisis: U.S. Weighs New Sanctions as Ceasefire Efforts Stall: With Sudan’s brutal civil war dragging on, Washington signaled a tougher stance on the army and Rapid Support Forces (RSF). U.S. envoy Massad Boulos – Trump’s own son-in-law by marriage – has struggled for months to broker a ceasefire between Sudan’s warring generals. This week the Trump administration floated broader sanctions on all Sudanese belligerents, tacitly conceding that coaxing them hasn’t worked. President Trump, spurred by a personal request from Saudi Crown Prince MBS, belatedly put his clout behind Sudan peace efforts. Yet fighting intensified: the UN warns of potential “mass atrocities” in Kordofan after an RSF offensive, with hundreds of civilians killed in recent weeks. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio asserted Trump is “the only leader” who can resolve Sudan, as Norway readies talks in Oslo with a broad range of Sudanese factions. Time is short – the war has already killed an estimated 40,000 people and displaced 14 million. Washington’s new approach may include enforcing a UN arms embargo and sanctioning those fueling the violence. It’s a notable shift from Trump’s earlier hands-off stance, reflecting fears that Sudan’s spiraling conflict threatens regional stability and could invite extremist threats.
theguardian.com
- Colombia Strikes Deal with Notorious Clan del Golfo: In a significant step for “Total Peace” in Colombia, the government of President Gustavo Petro reached a preliminary agreement with the country’s largest crime gang, the Clan del Golfo. Talks in Doha (mediated by Qatar) yielded a Dec 5 deal for the gang’s fighters to concentrate in three demobilization zones starting March 1. Two zones will be in Chocó and one in Córdoba province, areas hard-hit by drug trafficking violence. In return, authorities will suspend arrest warrants and extraditions for Clan del Golfo members while they assemble and participate in peace programs. The agreement – announced jointly in Qatar – aims to reduce bloodshed and integrate fighters into pilot development projects across 15 municipalities. Petro, Colombia’s first leftist president, campaigned on ending the country’s multi-sided conflicts. Though he previously brokered a ceasefire with the ELN rebels, progress has been slow. This deal with the narco-paramilitary Clan (responsible for much of Colombia’s cocaine trade) is a breakthrough, but also controversial. Success will depend on the gang’s true commitment to abandoning illicit economies – and on the government’s ability to provide economic alternatives. Still, for communities long caught between assassins and the state, the prospect of peace brings a glimmer of hope.
reuters.com
- Xi and Macron Stage Friendly Summit, But Few Tangibles: Chinese President Xi Jinping rolled out the red carpet for France’s Emmanuel Macron – literally accompanying him on a sightseeing tour in Chengdu – in a charm offensive toward the EU. It’s rare for Xi to join a visiting leader outside Beijing (Trump didn’t get that treatment in 2017). The two leaders showcased warm personal rapport and “bonhomie,” and Macron’s delegation included top French CEOs eyeing Chinese markets. However, concrete outcomes were scarce. Analysts say Macron “overestimated” how many deals Xi would offer. With China’s economy under strain and Beijing locked in broader negotiations with Washington and Brussels, Xi offered mostly diplomatic niceties rather than major trade concessions. Still, the visit burnished Xi’s image as a global statesman courted by Western leaders, and it gave Macron a platform to show he’s engaging Beijing (perhaps to counter Trump’s tariff war). France pressed China on reducing EU trade imbalances and on support for Africa’s debt relief, but no breakthroughs were announced. The meeting underscores China’s strategy of courting individual EU powers (especially France and Germany) to prevent a united Western front. In short: lots of diplomacy – Chengdu hotpot and photo-ops – but little in the way of new agreements.
reuters.com
Geostrategic Flashpoints
- China Stages Massive Naval Show of Force in East Asia: Beijing is dramatically massing warships and coast guard vessels across regional waters in an unprecedented maritime drill. Intelligence reviewed by Reuters shows China deployed over 100 ships from the Yellow Sea down through the East and South China Seas into the Pacific – its largest ever simultaneous naval operation. The activity, peaking earlier this week at ~90 ships (down from 100+), exceeds even last December’s surge that put Taiwan on high alert. The unannounced mobilization comes amid a diplomatic crisis with Japan: Tokyo’s new PM Sanae Takaichi warned last month that a Chinese attack on Taiwan could provoke Japanese military involvement, enraging Beijing. China has also bristled at Taiwan’s plans to boost defense spending by $40 billion. Security analysts see the naval buildup – which includes four Chinese carrier groups operating in the western Pacific – as muscle-flexing to deter Japan, the US and Taiwan. Taipei confirms it is closely tracking multiple PLA Navy formations and has raised readiness. The West Pacific hasn’t seen this scale of Chinese naval presence before. While Beijing calls it routine winter exercises, the sheer scope and timing send a clear message of Chinese resolve amid sharpening regional tensions.
reuters.com
- Iran Test-Fires Missiles in Gulf Wargames, Eyes U.S. and Israel: Iran’s Revolutionary Guards conducted large-scale military drills in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, including launching barrages of ballistic and cruise missiles at simulated maritime targets. The two-day exercise, which began Dec 4, saw a “massive launch” of Qadr and other missiles into the Gulf of Oman and drone strikes on mock enemy bases. Tehran said the drills are aimed at “countering foreign threats” – a thinly veiled warning to the U.S. Navy and Israel. The IRGC Navy touted new AI-driven targeting and the “unwavering spirit” of its sailors. Notably, this saber-rattling comes after a brief Iran-Israel direct conflict in June, when Israel (with U.S. support) struck Iranian nuclear sites and Iran retaliated, before a ceasefire. Iran also concurrently hosted an SCO “anti-terror” exercise with Russia, China, and others – signaling both “peace and friendship” to neighbors and resolve against enemies. Western observers see Iran’s missile show as a message of strength as it seeks leverage in any future nuclear talks. The U.S. condemned the tests, noting that Iran’s growing ballistic arsenal – capable of carrying nuclear warheads – threatens regional stability and violates UN resolutions. Gulf states are on alert, though no incidents were reported. The drills underscore that the Persian Gulf remains a flashpoint, with Iran flexing its capabilities under international scrutiny.
reuters.com
Terrorism and Conflict
- Taliban vs TTP – Bombings Strain Pakistan-Afghan Relations: A string of deadly attacks by the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) is fueling tensions between Islamabad and Kabul. On Dec 3, a roadside bomb killed three Pakistani police officers and wounded two in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa near the Afghan border. Islamabad’s interior minister immediately blamed the TTP, which has bases in Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. This blast came just a day after TTP militants ambushed a police convoy in Bannu, killing a senior officer. Pakistan accuses Kabul’s Taliban of harboring the TTP – a charge the Afghan regime denies. Tensions boiled over into border clashes in October that killed dozens, the worst fighting since the Taliban’s 2021 takeover. A Qatari-brokered ceasefire in Doha has held tenuously, and new secret talks in Saudi Arabia this week yielded agreement to continue the truce and seek a “positive outcome” in further meetings. Pakistan demands Afghanistan crack down on the TTP, while Kabul insists it cannot police Pakistan’s security for it. With violence still “seething” on both sides of the Durand Line, the risk of broader conflict remains – underscoring that the Afghan war’s embers are far from extinguished.
abcnews.go.com
- Eastern DR Congo Erupts as Peace Deal Falters (Again): Within hours of a celebrated peace ceremony in Washington, violence re-ignited in DR Congo’s restive east, underscoring the fragility of diplomacy. The day after Presidents Tshisekedi (DRC) and Kagame (Rwanda) shook hands on new accords to end support for rebels, M23 insurgents clashed with Congolese troops on multiple fronts. The M23 said government forces and allied militias bombarded villages in North Kivu and South Kivu for three days, killing civilians. Kinshasa countered that Rwandan units had crossed the border to hit Congolese targets – a claim Rwanda denies. Amid the fighting, M23 rebels seized back the town of Luberika and even shot down a Congolese drone, an M23 official told Reuters. The surge in hostilities dashed the optimism from Washington, where Trump had declared “we’re settling a war that’s been going on for decades”. Observers note a pattern: similar deals (Nairobi 2013, Luanda 2022) were followed by flare-ups. The enduring conflict, rooted in ethnic tensions and competition over minerals (and foreign meddling), won’t be solved overnight. The latest clashes highlight the urgent need for a robust monitoring mechanism and genuine political will – otherwise, Congo’s cycle of rebellion and suffering will persist despite high-level peace pledges.
reuters.com
- Foreign Activists Wounded in West Bank Amid Escalating Settler Violence. Four foreign activists were reportedly injured—one seriously—after being attacked by Israeli settlers near the village of Ein al-Auja, north of Jericho in the West Bank, according to Palestinian media and eyewitnesses. The incident occurred during a solidarity visit to support Palestinian residents in the Jordan Valley. Israeli police confirmed that one man was detained and is being questioned, but did not confirm the nationality of those injured. The Times of Israel notes that violence between settlers and Palestinians has surged in recent months, drawing condemnation from international observers and increasing scrutiny of Israel’s handling of extremist settler behavior. While the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has not publicly responded to this specific event, the uptick in attacks—including assaults on activists and aid workers—has become a growing point of diplomatic concern, especially as tensions rise across multiple fronts in the region.
timesofisrael.com
WMD & Cyber Warfare
- ‘Brickstorm’ Malware – Western Agencies Expose Chinese Cyber Sabotage Tool: U.S. and Canadian cyber authorities issued a stark warning Dec 4 about Chinese state-linked hackers embedding in critical networks to enable potential sabotage. A joint advisory revealed a sophisticated backdoor malware dubbed “Brickstorm” that Chinese APT (advanced persistent threat) groups have used to infiltrate government agencies and IT firms. Once inside, the hackers can maintain stealthy, long-term access, steal credentials, and even seize full control of systems. In one case, Brickstorm went undetected in a network from April 2024 until at least Sept 2025. The U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) said the intrusions are “embedding [hackers] to enable long-term access, disruption, and potential sabotage” of critical infrastructure. China’s embassy denied the claims as “irresponsible,” insisting Beijing doesn’t sponsor hacking. But Western officials note this campaign aligns with past Chinese cyber-espionage against telecoms, utilities, and defense industries. Notably, Brickstorm targets VMware virtualization software – a ubiquitous platform – to gain broad access. The advisory urges immediate patching and network monitoring. Cyber experts say this is part of China’s strategy to pre-position for contingencies (e.g., crippling foreign power grids or pipelines in event of conflict). The unspoken context: if a Taiwan war or other clash erupts, malware like Brickstorm could be China’s ace to disrupt Western logistics and communications. The alert underscores that 21st-century warfare may start in cyberspace, quietly and months or years in advance.
reuters.com
- Pyongyang Pivots to Crypto Crime to Fund Nukes: North Korea’s illicit cyber operations are now a major driver of its weapons programs, U.S. officials say. As formal trade is strangled by sanctions, North Korean hackers have stolen over $3 billion in cryptocurrency and other assets in the past three years – revenue that “directly threatens U.S. and global security” by bankrolling Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile development. The U.S. Treasury this week sanctioned eight individuals and two entities tied to these laundering networks, noting they have links in China and Russia. The action came as Washington tries to pressure Kim Jong Un back to talks (so far unsuccessfully). Meanwhile, a senior North Korean official openly mocked the Trump administration’s approach, saying more sanctions are “foolish” and will not force a policy change. North Korea continues to advance its arsenal: it has tested new ICBMs and apparently a hypersonic glide vehicle in recent months. U.S. military leaders worry Pyongyang could soon conduct its first nuclear test since 2017 if it doesn’t get sanctions relief. The marriage of cybercrime and proliferation represents an evolving threat – one that challenges traditional sanctions. American and South Korean agencies have stepped up efforts to counter North Korean crypto hacking (working with exchanges to freeze stolen funds), but cat-and-mouse tactics persist. The revelation about the scale of crypto thefts underscores how North Korea’s hacking prowess has become integral to its WMD ambitions, requiring an equally agile international response.
armscontrol.org
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