Highlighted Works by Mackinder Forum Members

• Is Europe Waking Up to the China Challenge? How Geopolitics Are Reshaping EU and Transatlantic Strategy
  Zoltán Fehér & Valbona Zeneli
  Atlantic Council
  November 10, 2025
  atlanticcouncil.org

• What Are the Security Challenges in the Arctic?
  Logan Bolan (guest) / Phil Gurski (host)
  Borealis Threat & Risk — Podcast
  November 18, 2025
  borealisthreatandrisk.com

Weekly Geopolitical News Bulletin (Nov 22–28, 2025)
Geoeconomics

• India’s growth beats forecasts as Washington talks up a trade deal
  India reported 8.2% year‑on‑year GDP growth for Q2 2025, with strong consumption and front‑loaded exports ahead of steep new US tariffs of up to 50% on Indian goods. In parallel, Trade Secretary Rajesh Agrawal said New Delhi expects to conclude a trade deal with Washington by year‑end to roll back some of those duties and address US pressure on Russian oil imports and farm market access. For executives, the combination of rapid growth plus tariff volatility makes India simultaneously a major opportunity and a policy‑risk hotspot.
  reuters.com
• Swiss–US tariff relief offers industry boost but limited macro upside
  The Swiss government says US general tariffs on Swiss goods should fall from 39% to 15% in early December, bringing welcome relief to watchmakers after exports to the US slumped. The Swiss National Bank nonetheless calls the cut “not a game changer,” noting the earlier hike hit only ~4% of exports and left pharmaceuticals largely untouched. For luxury and precision‑manufacturing firms, the move restores price competitiveness in the US market; at the macro level, it mainly reduces uncertainty around arbitrary tariff shocks under Trump’s trade policy.
  jckonline.com
  reuters.com
• IMF warns Germany may structurally underperform without reforms
  The IMF’s latest Article IV consultation warns Germany risks years of sub‑par growth unless it accelerates structural reforms and investment. The Fund highlights weak productivity, underinvestment in digital and green infrastructure, and an aging workforce as drags on Europe’s largest economy, even as Berlin wrestles with fiscal rules and constitutional limits on borrowing. For multinationals, the message is that Germany may remain a demand laggard and a regulatory trend‑setter rather than a growth engine. The warning underpins broader concerns about Europe’s competitiveness relative to the US and Asia.
  bloomberg.com
• US–EU trade friction shifts to digital rules and steel
  US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick signaled Washington will not cut Trump‑era steel tariffs on the EU until Brussels offers “balanced” digital regulation that, in US eyes, doesn’t disproportionately burden American tech firms. Brussels is pressing to expand exemptions and lower duties, framing the tariffs as illegal protectionism. The clash links industrial tariffs to EU tech rule‑making (DMA, DSA, AI Act), raising the risk that disputes over data and platform regulation spill into metals, autos, and green‑tech supply chains.
  reuters.com
• Russia and China tighten energy ties as sanctions bite
  At a Russia–China energy forum, Moscow pushed for more long‑term oil and LNG contracts with Chinese buyers, with Rosneft’s Igor Sechin claiming Russia has saved Beijing about $20 billion via discounted crude. S&P Global notes Chinese crude imports from Russia are down year‑on‑year, but the relationship is deepening in gas and long‑term contracts, cementing an eastward re‑orientation of Russian flows. For Western firms, this hardens a bifurcated energy system and makes future sanctions relief less likely to restore pre‑war trade patterns. 
  spglobal.com

• Poland selects Saab A26 submarines, reshaping Baltic undersea balance
  Warsaw has chosen Sweden’s Saab A26 Blekinge‑class submarines for its Orka program, planning to buy three boats plus an interim “gap‑filler” hull by 2030. The deal significantly upgrades Poland’s aging undersea fleet and will likely include land‑attack cruise‑missile options, strengthening NATO’s posture against Russia’s Baltic Fleet and infrastructure. EU financing via the SAFE program ties the procurement to broader European defence‑industrial integration. For industry, the contract bolsters Saab and signals continued European demand for high‑end conventional subs as deterrence tools in contested seas. 
  thedefensewatch.com
• NATO and Ukraine launch “UNITE–Brave” to industrialise air defence
  NATO and Ukraine unveiled the “UNITE–Brave” initiative, a joint effort to scale production of air‑defence systems, drones, and counter‑UAS capabilities across allied industries. The program aims to pool demand, streamline export controls, and link Ukrainian front‑line experience with NATO R&D, accelerating iterations in drone warfare and air defence. While largely framed as support for Ukraine, it is also about hardening NATO stockpiles for a potential long war and future conflicts. The move should be viewed as a medium‑term demand signal for air‑defence and drone‑tech suppliers.  
  defensescoop.com
• Taiwan moves to acquire new US coastal missile system
  Taiwan’s legislature approved funding for an advanced US‑made coastal defence missile system, expanding its anti‑ship and anti‑landing capabilities along key straits. The system complements existing Harpoon and Hsiung Feng batteries, reinforcing a “porcupine” strategy aimed at denying PLA amphibious and naval operations. Beijing condemned the move as interference in its internal affairs, while US officials frame it as necessary to preserve cross‑Strait stability. For defence firms, Taiwan’s urgency suggests sustained demand for precision munitions, sensors and dispersed launchers.  
  ipdefenseforum.com
• US Army conducts Arctic Gold 26‑1, stress‑testing Arctic logistics
  The US Army and allies ran Arctic Gold 26‑1, one of the largest Arctic exercises in years, focused on rapid deployment to Norway, Finland and Sweden and sustainment in extreme conditions. The drill tested pre‑positioned stocks, sealift and over‑the‑shore logistics that would be critical in a NATO–Russia crisis affecting the GIUK gap and Arctic sea lanes. For industry and shippers, rising military activity underscores the Arctic’s transition from niche theatre to front‑line strategic corridor.
  defence-industry.eu
• Russia reportedly shifts Tu‑95 bombers to secret airfield
  Open‑source analysts and Ukrainian media report Russia has begun launching Tu‑95MS strategic bombers from an undisclosed airfield, cutting missile flight time toward Ukraine by roughly 30 minutes. The move appears intended to complicate Ukrainian targeting and shorten warning times for cities and energy infrastructure, while also dispersing aircraft away from known bases vulnerable to drone strikes. For NATO planners, the shift reinforces concerns about Russia’s ability to adapt and sustain long‑range strike campaigns despite attrition and sanctions. 
  united24media.com

• G20 Johannesburg declaration adopted amid US boycott
  The G20 summit in South Africa concluded with a joint declaration on global growth, climate and debt, despite the United States boycotting the leaders’ meeting over objections to language on Ukraine and Gaza. Emerging economies pushed for stronger commitments on multilateral development bank reform and concessional climate finance, while Russia and China welcomed US absence as evidence of Western division. For businesses, the declaration itself is less important than the visible fragmentation of G20 consensus, which weakens the forum’s role as a crisis‑management steering group.
  reuters.com
• Trump’s Ukraine peace plan triggers US domestic backlash
  Reuters reports that President Trump’s push for a Ukraine peace plan, which would freeze front lines and condition future aid on Kyiv’s acceptance, has drawn rare public criticism from senior Republicans in Congress. Critics warn it rewards Russian aggression and undermines deterrence, while the White House sells it as ending a costly war and freeing resources for China competition. The domestic split matters for allies: it clouds the credibility of US security guarantees and raises uncertainty about medium‑term Ukraine funding, even if the plan stalls.
  reuters.com
• Kyiv and Moscow study revised US proposal under wary scrutiny
  A separate Al Jazeera analysis details how US, Ukrainian and European negotiators in Geneva narrowed an initial 28‑point peace proposal to 19 points, balancing territorial issues, security guarantees and sanctions relief. Moscow publicly dismisses the plan but engages via back‑channel contacts; Kyiv insists any deal must preserve sovereignty and future NATO/EU prospects. For companies exposed to Eastern Europe, the talks are not yet a peace signal, but they do increase the probability of some form of armistice or “frozen” conflict over the next 12–18 months.
  aljazeera.com
• US‑backed Gaza stabilization center seeks to manage fragile truce
  The Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) reports on a US‑backed Civil‑Military Coordination Center being set up to manage aid, security vetting and reconstruction in post‑war Gaza. Washington sees the center as a way to keep Hamas and other designated groups away from reconstruction funds while supporting an interim governance framework. Critics, particularly in Arab media, argue it could entrench de facto partition and foreign control. FDD is a hawkish, pro‑Israel think tank; its framing emphasises militant threats and may underplay Palestinian governance concerns raised in regional outlets.
  fdd.org
• China uses UN Security Council to frame Gaza as test of “rules‑based order”
  In remarks at the UN Security Council, China’s ambassador Fu Cong criticised Israel’s conduct in Gaza and Western double standards, while calling for a more “authoritative” multilateral mechanism on the conflict. The official Chinese transcript portrays Beijing as a neutral defender of international law and humanitarian norms, though Western diplomats see it as part of a broader campaign to win Global South opinion and erode US diplomatic leadership. For firms, China’s positioning matters because it shapes how non‑aligned states view future sanctions, recognition questions and conflict‑related supply‑chain shifts. 
  fmprc.com.cn (Chinese MFA transcript)

Geostrategic Flashpoints

• New Zealand warship’s Taiwan Strait transit draws Chinese warning
  The Straits Times reports that New Zealand’s largest naval vessel, HMNZS Aotearoa, made a rare transit of the Taiwan Strait earlier this month, with China warning against “creating trouble” after the passage was confirmed on Nov. 27. Wellington frames the sail‑through as a routine exercise in freedom of navigation; Beijing sees it as alignment with US containment. The episode shows that even traditionally cautious partners are slowly normalising presence in this chokepoint, increasing the risk of miscalculation as PLA forces shadow allied ships. 
  straitstimes.com
• Chinese swarm activity intensifies in West Philippine Sea
  According to the Philippine Star, at least 30 Chinese navy and coast‑guard vessels massed around several features in the West Philippine Sea, following a recent collision between Chinese ships while harassing a Philippine fisheries patrol. Manila portrays the episode as coordinated coercion aimed at squeezing its resupply missions; Beijing denies wrongdoing and accuses the Philippines of “provocation.” The build‑up underscores how quickly grey‑zone pressure around fisheries and reefs can escalate into broader confrontation involving treaty allies like the US and Japan.
  philstar.com
• China eyes new port concessions on the Panama Canal
  AFP reporting carried by US local outlet NBC Right Now says China will be among bidders for two new port terminals on the Panama Canal, even as Washington airs concerns about Beijing’s growing footprint at the waterway. Panama insists it will keep a neutral, open tender, but US officials fear long‑term leases could give Chinese state‑linked firms leverage over a critical inter‑ocean route. For global logistics and energy players, the contest is another data point in the US–China struggle to shape maritime infrastructure financing and standards. 
  nbcrightnow.com
• Shippers weigh gradual return to Red Sea and Bab el‑Mandeb
  The Business Times reports Maersk is considering a phased resumption of Suez and Red Sea routing as Houthi forces signal an end to attacks tied to Gaza, though the company stresses any return depends on sustained security improvements. Maritime analysts warn insurance premia are unlikely to “normalize” soon, given the ease with which Yemen‑based actors can re‑target Bab el‑Mandeb traffic. For cargo owners, this week’s signals suggest some eventual relief on transit times and capacity, but with a structurally higher risk premium embedded in Red Sea trade. 
  businesstimes.com
• Russian “shadow fleet” tankers catch fire in the Black Sea
  Euronews reports that two oil tankers linked to Russia’s sanctions‑busting “shadow fleet” caught fire off Türkiye’s Black Sea coast near the Bosporus, triggering a major rescue and pollution‑control operation. The causes are still under investigation, but the incident highlights safety risks from poorly regulated, under‑insured vessels transporting sanctioned crude through crowded chokepoints. For traders and insurers, it reinforces pressure from the EU and UK to tighten enforcement on dark‑fleet operations, which could constrict Russia’s export channels and add volatility to Black Sea shipping and energy markets. 
  euronews.com

• Pakistani airstrikes in Afghanistan kill children, Kabul vows retaliation
  Reuters and regional follow‑up reporting describe Pakistani airstrikes on Afghanistan’s Kunar province that Kabul says killed nine children and one woman, prompting the Taliban government to threaten a response. Islamabad frames the strikes as retaliation for a deadly Nov. 11 suicide bombing at an Islamabad court, blamed on militants operating from Afghan territory. The episode pushes an already fraught Pakistan–Taliban relationship closer to open confrontation, complicating counter‑terrorism cooperation and raising spillover risks for Chinese and Gulf investments in both countries. 
  reuters.com
• Suicide bombers hit Pakistan’s border police HQ
  Multiple suicide attackers struck a paramilitary headquarters in north‑western Pakistan, killing at least three officers and wounding others, according to local officials quoted by Courthouse News and regional media. The tactics and target resemble previous Tehrik‑e‑Taliban Pakistan (TTP) operations, though no immediate claim was reported. Coming days after the Islamabad court bombing, the attack underscores a renewed militant campaign against Pakistani security forces with potential cross‑border facilitation from Afghanistan. For investors, these incidents highlight persistent insurgency risk along CPEC routes and in resource‑rich frontier provinces. 
  courthousenews.com
• National Guard ambush near White House politicises US security and migration debates
  A National Guard member died and another was critically wounded after an Afghan national allegedly ambushed their patrol near the White House. Reuters and US outlets report that President Trump blamed immigration vetting failures from the Biden era and ordered a sweeping review of Afghan asylum cases, while investigators probe the suspect’s history and possible extremist ties. The case blurs lines between terrorism, lone‑actor violence and politicised crime but is already feeding into debates about refugee admissions and domestic force protection in capital cities.
  reuters.com
• Delhi Red Fort bomber case exposes “white‑collar” jihadist cell
  NDTV’s investigation into the Nov. 10 suicide car bombing near Delhi’s Red Fort details how a group of educated doctors allegedly formed a Jaish‑e‑Mohammed‑linked module, raising funds, testing explosives and discussing multi‑car operations. The attack killed 15 people and is now linked to trans‑state radicalisation networks and online propaganda. For security planners, the case illustrates how professional, urban recruits can blend into institutions until late in the attack cycle, stressing the importance of financial‑intelligence and behavioural‑monitoring tools that respect civil liberties. 
  ndtv.com

• China warns of nuclear conflict risks after US test rhetoric
  Bloomberg reports that China issued an arms‑control white paper warning that US plans to resume nuclear weapons testing and deploy the “Golden Dome” missile‑defence system heighten the risk of nuclear confrontation. Beijing accuses Washington of seeking “absolute security” and threatening strategic stability, while US officials cast missile defence as a response to Russian and Chinese advances. For executives, this signals a renewed era of great‑power nuclear signalling with potential spillovers into sanctions, export controls, and pressure on dual‑use tech supply chains. 
  bloomberg.com
• Iran retools its regional and nuclear posture after IAEA censure
  An analysis from The Soufan Center argues that Tehran is trying to “reconstitute” its strategic architecture after an IAEA resolution criticising its lack of cooperation, including hints at leaving the NPT and deepening ties with Russia and non‑state partners. The briefing notes Iran’s rhetoric about “imported warheads” is likely signalling, but it increases miscalculation risks and complicates European diplomatic efforts planned in Paris this week. Soufan is generally critical of Tehran and may emphasise threat perceptions more than Iranian sources, which frame moves as defensive responses to Western pressure.
  thesoufancenter.org
• Russian ICBM test reportedly fails over Yasny range
  Defence Blog reports that a Russian intercontinental ballistic missile test at the Yasny range ended in mid‑air failure, with the missile exploding a few hundred meters above ground and creating a toxic plume consistent with legacy propellants. Moscow has not confirmed the incident; if accurate, it suggests reliability issues in parts of Russia’s strategic arsenal and potential environmental contamination near launch sites. For NATO planners, such failures don’t eliminate the threat but may affect assessments of Russia’s cost‑imposition calculus and modernization priorities. 
  defence-blog.com
• Ransomware cripples CodeRED emergency alert system across the US
  SecurityWeek details how a ransomware attack on Crisis24’s CodeRED emergency‑notification platform disrupted local alerting capabilities for dozens of US municipalities, with the INC Ransom group claiming responsibility and data theft. While the national Emergency Alert System remains unaffected, the outage exposed dependence on a single third‑party SaaS provider for critical public‑safety messaging and raised questions about contract oversight and cyber standards at the municipal level. For operators of critical infrastructure, this is a textbook example of third‑party and supply‑chain risk in emergency systems.  securityweek.com
• Asahi Group confirms data leak affecting 1.5 million customers
  Reuters reports that Japanese beverage giant Asahi believes personal data of up to 1.5 million customers may have been leaked after a ransomware attack attributed to the Qilin group.The company says it has not paid ransom and is working with authorities, but compromised data likely include contact details and purchase histories. While not critical infrastructure, the breach underscores how branded consumer companies are now routine ransomware targets, with knock‑on effects for brand trust, regulatory fines and cyber‑insurance costs across the FMCG sector. 
  reuters.com