The Mackinder forum is maintaining a weekly bulletin with the intention of helping our members stay abreast of geopolitical developments around the world.  Currently we search for news across the categories below, but we invite your input on other topics or locations of interest.  

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Geoeconomics

• US–China Trade Truce: President Trump announced that Washington and Beijing have “signed” a trade deal framework, defusing their tariff war. The White House says China agreed to resume exporting rare earth minerals (vital for electronics and defense) and other “controlled” items, while the US will lift certain export restrictions. China’s Commerce Ministry confirmed details of the pact, indicating it will approve export licenses for critical materials as the US rolls back some curbs. This tariff truce represents a major thaw in tensions between the world’s top economies. (Notably, Fox News and other US outlets cheer the agreement as a win for Trump, but Chinese state media stress it’s a “framework” still contingent on trust. The context underscores how each side spins the deal to its domestic audience.)
  aljazeera.com
  (Al Jazeera is a global news network financed by the Qatari State)
  
  

• Global De-Dollarization vs. US Pushback: African nations are accelerating plans to trade in local currencies via the new Pan-African Payments and Settlements System (PAPSS), aiming to cut costly reliance on the US dollar. This month, South Africa (which holds the G20 presidency) championed the initiative, mirroring efforts by China and sanctioned states (like Russia) to bypass Western financial systems. However, the U.S. has not welcomed these moves: Reuters reports President Trump warned that attempts to undermine the dollar’s dominance could face retaliation. (Conservative-leaning outlets would likely frame Trump’s stance as protecting U.S. interests, whereas African and Chinese media highlight the benefits of “de-dollarization.” The truth lies in between – these payment systems promise cheaper trade for Africa, yet risk provoking U.S. sanctions if seen as threatening dollar hegemony.)
  reuters.com
  
  

• EU Grapples with Sanctions & Tariffs: At a Brussels summit, EU leaders debated stepping up sanctions on Russia (an 18th round of measures) and whether to maintain the price cap on Russian oil amid internal splits. They also voiced alarm over Trump’s threatened tariffs on European goods – the U.S. president lashed out at Spain for “not spending enough on defense” and hinted at new trade penalties. (European officials, such as France’s Emmanuel Macron, criticized these tariff threats as an unnecessary trade war between allies) The EU summit underscored Europe’s delicate balancing act: punishing Moscow for the Ukraine war without spiking energy prices, and managing a more protectionist Trump administration to avoid transatlantic trade conflict.
  apnews.com
  
  

• Trump’s Middle East “Corridor” Strategy: A Fox News opinion piece by Tanvi Ratna argues that President Trump’s seemingly erratic Middle East moves actually align with a “brilliant master plan” – reviving the stalled India–Middle East–Europe Corridor (IMEC). IMEC, launched in 2023 with India, Saudi Arabia, Israel, the UAE and EU, aims to build a modern trade and infrastructure corridor from South Asia to Europe without relying on China. The Fox op-ed notes Trump’s recent actions – engaging Iran then pressuring it, temporarily distancing from Israel, lifting sanctions on Syria’s new leader, courting Pakistan – all serve to “clear obstacles to infrastructure” so that Gulf-Israel-India connectivity can flourish. This “infrastructure-first geopolitics” focuses on trade routes, ports and pipelines over ideology. (Fox News, a right-leaning outlet often favorable to Trump, frames his moves as visionary; critics have described the same moves as improvisational. But if IMEC can bypass China’s Belt and Road, it represents a significant geoeconomic shift.)
  foxnews.com
  
  

• Euro-Atlantic Defense Spending & Economics: NATO leaders met in The Hague on June 24 and “pledged a big boost in defense spending,” with reports that allies even discussed raising targets up to 5% of GDP. Such a steep increase, if realized, would dramatically redirect economic resources into arms procurement and military R&D. European Council President António Costa also urged strengthening Europe’s own defense industry to complement NATO. Additionally, EU leaders reiterated that “the future of the Western Balkans is in the EU,” promising to integrate those economies gradually and support reforms on their path to membership. This reassurance – along with efforts to reduce energy dependencies and boost the euro’s global role – signals the EU’s strategy to bolster economic resilience and influence amidst great-power competition. (It also aligns with EU attempts to counter Chinese and Russian investment sway in the Balkans.)
  europeanwesternbalkans.com
  
  

Military Developments

• NATO’s Northern Front – Finland: Two years after Russia’s Ukraine invasion pushed Finland into NATO, the alliance is fortifying Europe’s longest east-west border (1,340 km) against potential Russian aggression. Finland has built a new barbed-wire fence and beefed up its already large reservist forces; a NATO command center will be hosted on Finnish soil. Russian activity has ticked up too – Moscow is reactivating Soviet-era bases near the Finnish frontier, and a recent Ukrainian drone strike on Russia’s Olenya airbase (close to Finland) brought the war uncomfortably near Finnish territory. NATO’s mid-week summit in The Hague underscored this return to Cold War-style vigilance: allies papered over differences with Trump and agreed to substantially hike defense budgets (some aiming for 5% of GDP in coming years). Such steps, though costly, aim to deter Russia from testing NATO’s new northern flank.
  reuters.com
  
  

• US Forces Surge in the Middle East: As Israel’s war with Iran escalates, Washington is positioning substantial firepower in the region. President Trump said he’ll decide by early July whether to directly join Israel’s air campaign, and in the meantime the Pentagon has moved additional fighter jets (F-16s, F-22s, F-35s) to Middle Eastern bases, extended deployments of other warplanes, and even dispatched a second aircraft carrier (USS Nimitz) to join the Carl Vinson in regional waters. Satellite imagery spotted B-52 strategic bombers at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, on standby. U.S. officials also quietly relocated some assets out of Iran’s missile range and restricted access to large bases (like Al-Udeid in Qatar) due to heightened threat levels. This muscular deployment is meant to deter Tehran from further attacks (or retaliate if needed). However, it also ups the risk of U.S.–Iran clashes if a miscalculation occurs. (European diplomats are simultaneously pushing de-escalation talks with Iran, wary that the U.S. buildup could inflame the conflict they seek to calm.)
  reuters.com
  
  

• North Korea Intervenes in Ukraine War: In an eye-opening disclosure, Seoul’s intelligence service confirmed that North Korea has been covertly sending troops and weapons to assist Russia’s war against Ukraine. Last year, Pyongyang deployed 11,000 personnel (including “construction troops” and likely artillery crews) to Russian-held areas such as Kursk, and plans to dispatch another 4,000–6,000 troops by August. It also supplied millions of artillery shells, rockets and missiles to bolster the Kremlin’s offensive. This marks the first confirmed direct combat role by North Korean forces in Europe. North Korea’s motivation is to repay Russia for military aid and perhaps gain battlefield experience; in return, Moscow benefits from manpower and ammunition as its own stocks run low. South Korean officials say ~600 North Korean soldiers have been killed and thousands wounded fighting for Russia. Pyongyang even admitted publicly in April that its troops died in combat in Ukraine. Such deepening Russia–North Korea military cooperation (including a mutual defense pact) has alarmed Western observers, as it internationalizes the Ukraine conflict and could embolden Kim Jong-un in East Asia.
  thedefensepost.com
  
  

• Arctic Patrols and Icebreaker Race: The U.S. Coast Guard cutter Healy arrived in the Arctic Ocean on its annual high-latitude deploymentgcaptain.com. Departing Seattle on June 20, the Healy will operate in the Chukchi, East Siberian, and Laptev Seas (along Russia’s Northern Sea Route) to service scientific instruments and support naval research on sea-ice dynamics. Its mission – ostensibly scientific – also serves strategic goals: Healy’s captain noted the cutter “directly supports security and defense of the nation’s northernmost borders” by maintaining U.S. presence in these waters. Last year, a similar cruise saw a Russian surveillance ship shadowing Healy’s activities, underscoring the growing strategic competition in the Arctic. To bolster capabilities, President Trump used this week’s NATO forum to confirm the U.S. is negotiating with Finland to buy up to 15 icebreakers, including at least one operational Finnish vessel. The U.S. currently has a paltry icebreaker fleet compared to Russia’s, so this investment – if finalized – would be a major step to closing the “icebreaker gap.” Arctic observers note that as polar sea lanes open (due to climate change), military and commercial contestation there is heating up. The U.S. is now signaling it won’t cede the Arctic to Moscow or even Beijing without a fight – albeit an icy one.
  gcaptain.com

Political and Diplomatic Developments

• Mali’s Junta Embraces Moscow: In a high-profile visit, Mali’s coup leader Gen. Assimi Goïta met with Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin to “reinforce ties”. The two countries inked agreements on military cooperation and nuclear energy, reflecting Mali’s pivot away from its former colonizer France toward Russia. Goïta openly praised Russia as a “key supporter” in Mali’s fight against jihadists – a nod to the assistance of Russian mercenaries. Putin, for his part, spoke of expanding cooperation in “defense, transport, the economy” and natural resources. This Moscow meeting comes on the heels of Wagner’s reshuffle in Mali (see Military Developments) and solidifies Russia’s political backing of the junta. Western diplomats warn that Mali is drifting firmly into Moscow’s sphere, risking regional instability. (Notably, AFP reporting on the meeting is straightforward, but Russian state media portray it as Putin heroically supporting an African partner against “neocolonial” pressures – a narrative that feeds into local anti-French sentiment.)
  thedefensepost.com
  
  

• Europe Rallies on Ukraine: Meeting in Brussels, EU leaders reaffirmed unwavering support for Ukraine in its war against Russia. They noted that EU member states have provided nearly €159 billion in aid to Ukraine to date and called on Moscow to agree to a full, unconditional ceasefire and engage in meaningful peace talks. The European Council also approved a 17th package of sanctions targeting Russia’s energy and financial sectors, including measures against the “shadow fleet” of oil tankers circumventing oil embargoes. 
  consilium.europa.eu.
  
  

• Quiet Diplomacy Amid Israel-Iran War: With Israel and Iran actively trading blows (airstrikes, covert ops), European diplomats are scrambling to mediate. Reuters notes a “European-led effort to de-escalate the ongoing conflict” is underway alongside U.S. military preparations. France and Germany have reportedly been in back-channel talks with Iran, pushing for restraint and offering to revive nuclear negotiations if Tehran pulls back. This week, French officials publicly rejected a proposal (floated by Trump) to have Putin mediate the Israel-Iran crisis – “Russia has no credibility as a peace broker while it wages war in Ukraine,” Macron said pointedly. Instead, the EU is advocating a return to the Iran nuclear deal framework and urging Gulf states (notably Qatar and Oman) to facilitate indirect U.S.-Iran dialogue. Iran, facing Israeli strikes on its soil, sent mixed signals – its rhetoric remains defiant, but analysts see Tehran calibrating its response to avoid giving the U.S. a pretext to enter the fray. Meanwhile, Turkey and China have each called for ceasefires: Turkey hosted talks between Israeli and Iranian officials in Ankara (unconfirmed by both sides) and Beijing at the UN demanded an immediate halt to “all unilateral strikes”. These diplomatic rumblings haven’t yet stopped the fighting, but they indicate a broad international desire to contain the conflict to avoid a regional war. (Some observers criticize that “talk shops” in Brussels or Beijing have limited influence on hardliners in Tehran and Jerusalem. Still, the flurry of mediation efforts shows the Iran-Israel showdown is now a top-tier crisis galvanizing global diplomatic attention.)
  reuters.com

   

• Qatar Mediates African Peace Deal: In a rare bit of positive diplomacy, Qatar (with U.S. backing) helped broker a peace agreement between Rwanda and DR Congo aimed at ending the long-running conflict in eastern DRC. On June 27 in Washington, DRC’s and Rwanda’s foreign ministers signed a pact committing to respect each other’s territory and disarm proxy militias. President Trump touted this deal as a diplomatic victory (and even grumbled about not getting a Nobel Prize for it). The agreement addresses the M23 rebel war that flared up last year – rebels seized large areas near Goma, and Kinshasa accused Rwanda’s army of backing them (charges the U.S. also made). In the deal, Rwanda is expected to curb support for M23 (though Kigali denies giving any), and DRC in turn will crack down on the anti-Rwanda FDLR militia on its soil. An economic component envisions integrating the region (and its rich minerals) with U.S. investment, which Trump’s team sees as a way to edge out Chinese influence in Congolese mining. However, the accord has its critics: Nobel laureate Dr. Denis Mukwege blasted it as opaque and warned it might “reward aggression” by allowing Rwanda a stake in DRC’s resources in exchange for peace. Both Kigali and Kinshasa have incentives to please Washington (for aid and trade), so they’ve signed on – but on the ground, implementing a durable peace will be challenging. Still, this marks a significant U.S.-facilitated diplomatic effort in Africa, one that will require careful follow-through to ensure it truly benefits the Congolese people and doesn’t just secure minerals-for-peace.
  thedefensepost.com

   

Geostrategic Flashpoints

• China’s Global Distractions – “Three Wars Strategy”: A Jewish Policy Center analysis reveals that Chinese strategists have considered a “Three Wars Strategy (TWS)” designed to stretch U.S. military resources thin across multiple theaters. Under this concept (articulated by a pro-CCP scholar in 2023), Beijing would encourage or exploit three conflicts targeting U.S. interests: one in Europe (to bog down NATO), one in the Middle East (to disrupt the U.S.-led order and dethrone the dollar in petro-markets), and one in East Asia (to fracture America’s Indo-Pacific alliances). Strikingly, two of these wars are already underway – Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Iran and its proxies’ war against Israel – and China has lent direct support in both. Ukraine’s President Zelensky accused China of giving military aid to Russia, even capturing Chinese fighters on the Ukrainian front. Meanwhile, evidence shows China materially backed Hamas and the Houthis during their conflicts with U.S. allies. The third war (East Asia, likely over Taiwan) has not yet started, but the alignment of the first two has U.S. analysts concerned that Beijing is indeed leveraging these flashpoints to distract and weaken America. (This perspective comes from a conservative think tank, which may emphasize China’s insidious role; Chinese officials vehemently deny orchestrating global conflicts. Yet tangible facts – Chinese components in Russian weapons, Chinese drones with Mideast militias – lend weight to the notion that Beijing is opportunistically fanning fires that pin down its rival.)
  jewishpolicycenter.org
  
  

• CCP infiltration ‘wake-up call,’ experts say: After three Chinese nationals were arrested at the University of Michigan for allegedly smuggling plague bacteria, security analysts warned that Beijing could exploit U.S. research labs and farmland purchases as covert attack vectors—drawing parallels to Israel’s clandestine drone strikes inside Iran and spurring bipartisan bills to curb CCP-linked land deals. (Fox News – conservative outlet; some biodefense experts note evidence of an imminent pathogen plot remains unverified.)
  foxnews.com
  
  

• Emerging Arctic Flashpoint: Once a realm of cooperation, the Arctic is turning into a strategic flashpoint as great powers angle for control of new sea routes and resources. This week saw the U.S. Coast Guard’s Healy icebreaker conducting research along Russia’s Arctic coast (as noted in Military Developments), illustrating the militarization of polar science. Moreover, Canada and Nordic NATO members are increasingly alarmed by Russia’s Arctic buildup. Finland’s recent NATO accession now positions the alliance directly across from Russia in the Far North, and NATO is formulating its first-ever Arctic defense strategy. In a symbolic move, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte attended the G7 summit in Canada’s Arctic Kananaskis venue on June 17, underlining NATO’s commitment to northern security. Meanwhile, China – calling itself a “near-Arctic state” – has launched new ice-capable ships and is courting Greenland and Iceland with investments, seeking a foothold. Western analysts now openly talk of the Arctic as “NATO’s next frontier.” The days of treating the high north as insulated from geopolitics are over; instead, the Arctic is firmly on the map of flashpoints, where climate change literally fuels strategic competition. (In this context, Macron’s Greenland visit (see Diplomatic Developments) can also be seen as a preemptive measure to rally an Arctic coalition against unilateral grabs.) Expect to see more military exercises in the Arctic, more patrols like Healy’s, and potentially new disputes over navigation rights in the Northwest and Northeast Passages – all signs that the Arctic is heating up in more ways than one.
  nato.int

Terrorism and Conflict

• Grinding War in Ukraine: Fighting remains fierce on the battlefields of Ukraine as Kyiv’s forces and Russian troops struggle for advantage. This week, Russia unleashed a wave of Shahed kamikaze drone strikes overnight on June 23–24, causing over 100 civilian casualties across Ukrainian cities. Ukraine’s air force said nearly 100 drones were launched from multiple directions, overwhelming defenses and hitting residential areas. On the ground, Ukrainian units made incremental advances near the eastern town of Toretsk and around Kherson in the south, even as Russian forces pressed attacks in the north (Sumy region) and near Chasiv Yar by Bakhmut. The toll of over sixteen months of war is staggering – analysts estimate that Russia’s total casualties (killed and wounded) are approaching one million troops since the invasion, a level of losses unprecedented in modern Russian history. EU leaders, meeting with President Zelenskyy via videolink, reiterated calls for Russia to agree to a ceasefire and withdraw, vowing to continue military and economic support to Ukraine in the meantime.
  understandingwar.org
  consilium.europa.eu
  csis.org
  
  

• Sudan’s Spiraling Conflict: In Sudan, the power struggle between the national army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces shows no sign of abating, and violence is spilling into a humanitarian catastrophe. The UN Security Council was warned that fighting has intensified in recent days, with indiscriminate airstrikes, heavy artillery, and advanced weaponry being used in densely populated areas. Hundreds of civilians have been killed since Sudan’s rival generals fell out in April, and continued battles in Khartoum and Darfur risk drawing in neighboring countries – a regional spill-over that could destabilize the broader Horn of Africa. The UN condemned widespread human rights abuses in the conflict and urged at least a temporary humanitarian pause to deliver aid and services. Diplomats, led by African and Arab mediators, are pressing the warring factions to resume talks on a viable ceasefire, but multiple truce attempts have collapsed amid mutual distrust.
  dppa.un.org
  
  

• Terror Threats in Somalia: In East Africa, Somalia’s Islamist insurgency continues to fester, though it gets less global attention. Al-Shabab militants – allied with Al-Qaeda – have been pushed back from some territory by Somali government forces, but they are far from defeated and have lately adapted with guerilla attacks. The United States, now under the Trump administration, has sharply increased airstrikes against these extremist groups, seeking to prevent Somalia from becoming a new terror safe haven. U.S. Africa Command has conducted at least 43 air strikes in Somalia in the first half of 2025, more than double the pace of last year. These strikes, done in coordination with Somalia’s government, have targeted both ISIL–Somalia (an Islamic State offshoot based in Puntland) and Al-Shabab strongholds. American officials say the uptick is driven by concern that IS-Somalia is turning into a hub for global ISIL finance and plotting. On the ground, however, Al-Shabab has shown resilience – recently regaining influence in some rural areas and carrying out deadly bombings. Somali and African Union troops, alongside U.S. advisors, are pressing a counter-offensive, but as one analysis noted, the militant group has actually increased its rate of attacks by about 50% in 2025. The conflict remains at a stalemate, with civilians bearing the brunt and nearly 4 million Somalis displaced or in urgent need of aid due to the violence.
  aljazeera.com
  (Al Jazeera is a global news network financed by the Qatari State)

 

WMD & Cyber Warfare

• Chemical Weapons in Ukraine: The OPCW (global chemical weapons watchdog) reported that CS gas (tear gas) – a riot-control agent banned in war – was found in multiple samples from the Ukraine conflict zone. In a June 27 release, inspectors confirmed CS in seven samples provided by Ukraine, including grenade fragments, soil, vegetation, and even a drone’s remains. This is the third time the OPCW has verified such findings (previously in Nov 2024 and Feb 2025). Neither Ukraine nor Russia was directly blamed in the report, but Kyiv has accused Russian forces of deploying tear gas shells on front lines to flush out Ukrainian troops. Russia in turn claims Ukrainian units have used various chemical irritants. Under the Chemical Weapons Convention, using any “riot control agent as a method of warfare” is strictly prohibited. OPCW Director-General Fernando Arias voiced deep concern and urged all parties to adhere to the ban, noting the repeated discovery of these agents in Ukraine is “deeply concerning”. While CS gas is not lethal like nerve agents, its battlefield use breaks international law and could set a dangerous precedent. Western governments have condemned Russia for prior chemical incidents (like the poisoning of opposition figures) and view these tear gas findings as part of a pattern of Moscow testing the norms. If violations continue, it may prompt discussions of providing Ukraine with protective gear or retaliatory sanctions under chemical weapons statutes.
  thedefensepost.com
  
  

• AI-Enhanced Drones from Iran: Ukrainian investigators revealed that Russia is using a new AI-guided attack drone, very likely supplied by Iran, in its recent strikes. Fragments of a downed drone in Zaporizhzhia showed it carried a high-res camera, onboard AI computing, and a radio link that lets operators re-task the drone in mid-air or control drone swarms simultaneously. Crucially, the anti-jamming module had markings indicating it was made in Iran within the last year. Experts say this is the first time such advanced autonomous capabilities have been seen in drones over Ukraine, though similar tech was observed in Iranian missiles used by Houthi rebels in Yemen. This suggests Tehran is transferring its latest drone innovations to Russia. The implications for WMD are significant: while drones themselves are not “mass-destructive,” an AI-driven drone that can evade jamming and coordinate attacks enhances Russia’s strike lethality – potentially delivering payloads with greater precision. The Defense Post report also notes drone cooperation deepening among U.S. adversaries: Russia is helping North Korea manufacture Iranian-designed Shahed drones locally (announced earlier in June), and a joint Iran-Russia drone factory opened in Tatarstan, Russia, last year to churn out more loitering munitions. This “drone axis” reflects how unmanned systems and associated AI tech are the new frontier in warfare – effectively a gray-zone WMD. They may not be nuclear or chemical weapons, but swarms of smart drones can terrorize cities and infrastructure in similar fashion. Ukraine’s allies are racing to counter this by supplying anti-drone systems and exploring AI for air defense.
  thedefensepost.com
  
  

• OPSEC Leak & Russian Malware: Separately, Ukraine’s security service (SBU) disclosed that a recent Russian malware campaign was enabled by clever social engineering: Russian agents infiltrated closed Ukrainian military chats on the Signal app and posed as comrades to distribute infected files. The malware targeted Android devices of front-line Ukrainian troops, potentially to harvest intel or compromise command systems. The SBU’s brief (reported June 24) highlights the ever-present cyber threat in the Ukraine war. Meanwhile in Moscow, a court quietly released some members of the REvil ransomware gang from custody (news broke via CyberScoop) – a stark reminder that Russia harbors cybercriminals and sometimes lets them walk free, likely to use their “skills” for state-sanctioned hacking. All these developments – from state-sponsored hacking to hacker-for-hire groups – paint a picture of accelerating cyber warfare, where attribution is murky and the battlefield ranges from laptops to critical infrastructure. The 2025 NATO Summit (coming in July) is expected to address these hybrid threats; a NATO report this week warned of heightened Russian cyber operations aiming to disrupt the summit itself. In sum, the lines between cyber criminals and cyber soldiers are blurring, with nation-states like China and Russia leveraging every tool (and proxy) in the cyber domain as part of their geopolitical arsenal.

  therecord.media
  industrialcyber.co