Highlighted Works by Mackinder Forum Members

• Space Strategy and Military Doctrine: Policy Documents of NATO Allies
  Bert Chapman
  Bloomsbury Academic / Praeger Security International
  July 24, 2025
  amazon.com
  
  

• Bismarck’s Statesmanship of Self-Restraint
  Francis P. Sempa
  Modern Age
  July 28, 2025
  modernagejournal.com
  
  

• Hero of a Thousand Faces – Reflections on Strategy and Leadership (Talking Strategy Podcast, Ep. 21)
  Beatrice Heuser
  Royal United Services Institute (RUSI)
  July 29, 2025
  rusi.org

Geopolitical Bulletin (July 26 – August 1, 2025)

Geoeconomics

• Markets & Dollar React to Trump Tariffs: Global markets convulsed amid the tariff escalation. European stocks fell to four-week lows as investors braced for trade disruptions. The VIX “fear index” spiked and Wall Street saw higher volatility. Paradoxically, the U.S. dollar surged to its strongest weekly performance in nearly three years. Analysts attribute the dollar’s rise to confidence that U.S. economic fundamentals can weather the trade war without immediate inflation. Meanwhile, Swiss and Indian officials warned that Trump’s tariff salvo could harm key industries (from Swiss watches to $40B of Indian goods), revealing jittery sentiment outside the U.S.
  dw.com
  
  
• IMF Upgrades Outlook, Warns of Risks: The IMF nudged its 2025 global growth forecast up to 3.0% (from 2.8% in April), citing surprisingly strong import demand as companies rushed to buy goods before U.S. tariffs jumped on August 1. However, the Fund warned that if maximum U.S. tariffs take effect, they could shave ~0.2 percentage points off world growth. “The world economy is still hurting” from tariffs, said the IMF’s chief economist, noting global trade tension and higher fiscal deficits remain major risks. The effective U.S. tariff rate has actually fallen to ~17% (from 24% in April) after Washington struck interim 15% tariff deals with the EU and Japan to avert even steeper duties. Still, the IMF cautioned that those deals may be temporary; any unraveling or new tariff hikes would tighten supply bottlenecks and financial conditions. (The IMF’s perspective is technocratic, highlighting data and scenario analysis. It implicitly critiques tariff policy as harmful, whereas the Trump administration argues tariffs protect U.S. industries).
  reuters.com
  
  
• Geopolitical Supply Shocks & Energy: Tariff fears are intertwining with energy geopolitics. The EU quietly implemented an 18th package of sanctions on Russia (mid-July) targeting energy exports, even as Europe worries Trump’s tariffs on steel and autos could hit its industries. In energy markets, oil prices have see-sawed – initially spiking on war worries (see Flashpoints) but then easing as Middle East shipping remained open. The U.S. alleged Iran prepared to mine the Strait of Hormuz in late June amid a clash with Israel, threatening a major oil chokepoint. Thankfully, no blockade occurred and global crude prices actually fell ~10% after conflict fears ebbed. Still, the incident underscored how geopolitical flashpoints can roil trade flows. Global investors ended the week torn between optimism (a still-growing U.S. economy boosting the dollar) and anxiety (trade wars and real wars clouding the outlook). Gold prices ticked upward as a hedge, and central banks from Asia to Europe hinted at stimulus if trade headwinds worsen – a sign that geoeconomics are poised to heavily influence monetary policy going forward.
  dlapiper.com
  reuters.com
  
  
• Trump Targets India’s Oil Ties with Tariffs: Washington-New Delhi ties hit turbulence as President Trump ordered a 25% tariff on all Indian exports (effective Aug. 1) to pressure India into halting Russian oil imports. Trump warned of 100% “penalty” tariffs on any country buying Russian oil unless Moscow makes peace in Ukraine. India – now Russia’s top oil buyer at ~2 million bpd – condemned the move and reportedly paused new Russian oil purchases this week. Analysts cautioned that if India is forced to cut off Russia, the Kremlin may retaliate by choking a major oil pipeline (CPC) to the West, potentially causing a global supply shock.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Brazil Faces 50% Tariff in Political Standoff: Brazil stands alone as the only major economy still facing Trump’s 50% “Liberation Day” tariffs, after refusing U.S. demands to cease probes of former President Bolsonaro. Without a deal by week’s end, all Brazilian exports to the U.S. will be hit with a punitive 50% tariff, far above the 15% levies the U.S. accepted with the EU and Japan. Trump explicitly tied Brazil’s treatment to politics – urging “Leave Bolsonaro alone!” – prompting criticism that U.S. trade policy is being weaponized over Brazil’s internal affairs. Brazil’s government warned the steep tariff could cost it $7+ billion and is weighing retaliation even as it seeks last-minute talks.
  reuters.com
  
  

Military Developments

• Kyiv mourns after deadliest strike in a year: Ukraine declared an official day of mourning on 1 August after a Russian overnight missile-and-drone barrage killed 31 people—including five children—and wounded more than 150, the highest toll in Kyiv since July 2024. President Zelenskyy called the attack “vile” and urged tougher sanctions on Moscow; Euronews notes the strike ripped through homes, schools and a hospital, while Russian outlets offered no comment on civilian casualties.
  euronews.com
  
  
• Bangkok and Phnom Penh silence the guns—at least for now: After five days of the worst Thai-Cambodian border fighting in more than a decade, the two neighbours agreed to an “immediate, unconditional” cease-fire that took effect at midnight on July 28, halting clashes that killed at least 38 people and displaced over 300,000; Malaysian mediation and phone pressure from President Trump were key to the deal, though Bangkok and Phnom Penh still trade blame for starting the shooting. Bias note: Reuters gives a straight rundown of events, but Thai and Cambodian officials push competing narratives, and U.S. statements play up Trump’s role more than regional outlets do.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Massive US-Australian Drill in Indo-Pacific: The Talisman Sabre 2025 exercise concluded in Australia and Papua New Guinea, marking the region’s largest-ever war games with around 40,000 troops from 19 nations participating. The U.S.-Australian-led drills spanned 300+ miles of coastline and for the first time extended into PNG, underscoring moves to bolster Pacific defenses amid China’s rise. Live-fire missile tests, amphibious assaults, and space-cyber operations were showcased, with a closing ceremony in Lae, PNG. Beijing’s influence loomed in the background: the U.S. gained access to PNG’s ports under a 2023 defense pact signed after China’s Solomon Islands deal, signaling the exercise’s aim to reinforce regional unity against Chinese military pressure.
  reuters.com
  
  
• NATO Countries Double Defense Spending Pledge: NATO members formally agreed to raise defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2035, more than doubling the alliance’s previous 2% goal. The new pledge (3.5% for core military forces plus 1.5% on related infrastructure) is intended to deter Russia and satisfy U.S. demands for burden-sharing. While Eastern allies like Poland (already spending 4%) strongly back the boost, Western European states are wary: Spain negotiated an opt-out and others called the 5% target “absurd” amid economic strains. Observers note the plan will fundamentally reshape European economies and test NATO unity, as some governments doubt they can sustain such unprecedented peacetime military expenditures.
  newamerica.org
  
  
• China–Russia stage large-scale Pacific drill to signal pushback against U.S. power: A Newsweek analysis (July 30) says Beijing and Moscow will hold their biggest Joint Sea 2025 naval exercise next month near Japan, framing the coordinated bomber-and-warship drill as the two powers’ most direct bid yet to erode long-standing U.S. military dominance in the region. Though the partners lack a formal alliance, analysts quoted warn their growing interoperability—from joint missile-defense to Arctic patrols—adds strain on U.S. forces already stretched by two wars; Chinese sources insist the exercise is “not aimed at any third party,” while U.S. officials call it part of a pattern meant to intimidate allies.
  newsweek.com
  
  
• Turkey Inks $9 Billion in Defense Deals: Turkey’s IDEF 2025 arms expo (July 25–27) in Istanbul concluded with $9 billion worth of contracts signed – a record haul highlighting Turkey’s emergence as a major arms exporter. The biennial fair drew 1,491 defense firms from 103 countries and over 120,000 visitors. Turkish officials said 270 agreements were inked (65% of them export deals) for products ranging from drones and armored vehicles to missiles. The deals – part of Turkey’s push to boost defense exports beyond $5 billion/year – underscore Ankara’s growing clout in global arms markets. Notably, Turkey also launched a new “OTS defense cooperation platform” with Central Asian states during IDEF, cementing partnerships that challenge Russian and Chinese influence in those regions.
  hurriyetdailynews.com
  
  

Political and Diplomatic Developments

• Abraham Accords Expansion Accelerates: President Trump signaled a major push to “load up” the Abraham Accords with new member countries after the recent 12-Day War in the Middle East. The White House confirmed that expanding normalization with Israel is a “key objective,” teasing imminent announcements of additional Arab and Muslim nations joining the 2020 Accords. In particular, Syria and Lebanon have been floated: Trump lifted some sanctions on Syria after meeting its president, and U.S. envoys explicitly requested Damascus sign onto the accords. Israeli officials likewise say Syria and Lebanon are top candidates for normalization. While it remains uncertain if those adversaries will agree, Trump’s team (led by envoy Steve Witkoff) is targeting “big wins” to deepen the Arab-Israeli peace framework in coming months.
  foxnews.com
  
  
• Canada and Malta add Western momentum to Palestinian recognition: Speaking at a U.N. meeting on July 31, Malta’s foreign-ministry chief said his country will “formally recognize the state of Palestine” at September’s General Assembly, while Canadian PM Mark Carney pledged Ottawa will follow suit—conditioned on Palestinian elections in 2026 and the creation of a demilitarized state. France has already set a September recognition date and the U.K. has signaled it may do the same, prompting Israel to denounce the move as “hypocrisy” that rewards terrorism, and the U.S. to withhold support. (Bias note: the Associated Press frames the announcements as straightforward diplomatic developments and gives space to Israeli objections, but some Israeli and U.S. outlets emphasize security risks and portray the recognitions as largely symbolic.)
  apnews.com
  
  
• Russia and U.S. Jostle for West African Influence: West Africa has become an arena of great-power competition, as Russia deepens ties with Sahelian juntas while the U.S. courts coastal democracies. In late July, Russia ratified a defense pact with Togo – including joint exercises, arms deliveries and rumoured port access at Lomé – marking Moscow’s first such military agreement with a Gulf of Guinea state. This follows Russia’s growing presence in Mali, Burkina Faso and CAR via Wagner mercenaries. Meanwhile, the U.S. re-engaged Sahel and littoral states at a regional summit, seeking to bolster those governments and counter Russian penetration. The competing outreach underscores a strategic scramble in West Africa: Russia leveraging anti-French sentiment to expand southward, and the U.S. attempting to fill security vacuums and shore up pro-Western partners.
  criticalthreats.org
  
  
• Caucasus Peace Talks Gain Momentum: Tentative progress was reported in peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan to resolve their decades-old conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. U.S. officials facilitated talks and expressed optimism that a formal peace treaty is within reach “in months, or even weeks”. Azerbaijan’s victory in Karabakh last year removed the main territorial dispute, and both Baku and Yerevan say they want to sign an accord. However, key sticking points remain: demarcating borders and ensuring security guarantees for Armenians. The Trump administration has linked a successful Armenia-Azerbaijan deal to wider regional plans – notably bringing Azerbaijan into the Abraham Accords – providing added incentive. Still, Russia’s role as Armenia’s traditional protector and the risk of spoilers on the ground mean any peace will require careful balancing.
  al-monitor.com
  
  

Geostrategic Flashpoints

• Allies Unite to Counter China in S. China Sea: In a show of emerging regional solidarity, India dispatched warships to join the Philippines for joint patrols in the South China Sea for the first time. The patrols, conducted alongside U.S. and Japanese vessels, underscore growing security cooperation among Indo-Pacific democracies to deter China’s maritime assertiveness. Philippine President Marcos Jr., in his annual address, hailed the country’s “stronger alliances” – with the U.S., Japan, Australia, India and others – as making the Philippines “more confident” in defending its waters. Beijing protested these “external interventions” and warned Manila against “internationalizing” the disputes. Meanwhile, Chinese coastguard and militia continued harassment of Philippine vessels near disputed reefs, prompting Manila to consider inviting more “friendly countries” to patrol and to boost its own military modernization. The South China Sea remains a volatile flashpoint between China and the U.S.-aligned states, but the latter are now more openly coordinating their presence.
  lmtonline.com
  
  
• BlackRock exits $23 bn ports deal, opening door for Beijing at Panama Canal: The Economic Times reports that Hong Kong conglomerate CK Hutchison’s planned $23 billion sale of its global port assets—including two terminals flanking the Panama Canal—to a U.S.-led BlackRock consortium collapsed on July 30, after Beijing signaled it wanted a major Chinese investor in the transaction. Washington fears the shift will give China outsized leverage over the strategic waterway, while CK Hutchison now courts state-linked firms like COSCO; the Indian outlet frames the story largely through a U.S.–China rivalry lens, whereas Chinese media portray the move as normal market realignment—illustrating divergent narratives on Beijing’s growing maritime footprint.
  economictimes.com
  
  

Terrorism and Conflict

• Gaza Aftermath and War Crimes Accusations: A fragile ceasefire continues to hold in Gaza after the devastating 12-day Iran–Israel war in June. International human rights organizations and the UN are calling for war crimes investigations, alleging that both Israel and Iran (via proxies) deliberately struck civilian targets during the conflict. The U.S. has pushed back on these calls – Vice President J.D. Vance argued Israel acted in self-defense and blamed Hamas for embedding fighters in civilian areas – but the global outcry is growing. Notably, several Western governments (France, UK, Canada) responded by moving diplomatically toward Palestinian recognition, as mentioned above. Gaza’s humanitarian needs are overwhelming: over 2 million people lack adequate water or electricity, and reconstruction is estimated at $15+ billion. Egypt is coordinating relief efforts, while quietly pressuring Israel to lift the blockade to avoid another explosion of violence. The geopolitical fallout from the Gaza war – including Russia and China’s sharp criticism of Israel at the UN – continues to reshape alliances in the Middle East.
  armscontrol.org
  
  
• Somalia: Mixed Fortunes Against Extremists: In Somalia, the fight against Islamist extremists showed both progress and setbacks. The U.S.-supported Somali military confirmed it killed the leader of ISIS-Somalia, along with 20 fighters, in a raid in the Bari mountains. U.S. and local forces have severely degraded ISIS’s Somalia branch over the past months, seizing bomb factories and disrupting its financing (which funneled funds to ISIS core). However, Al-Shabaab (Al-Qaeda’s East Africa franchise) has rebounded in central Somalia: in late July it overran a Somali army forward base near Beledweyne, killing over 30 soldiers and briefly reoccupying territory that had been liberated. The militants are also conducting cross-border raids into Ethiopia’s Somali region, worrying Ethiopian authorities. Somali President Hassan Sheikh’s new offensive, launched last year with U.S.-Turkish support, had made significant gains, but Al-Shabaab’s resilience is proving higher than anticipated. The African Union mission (ATMIS) began its drawdown in June, handing more responsibility to Somali forces. Security experts caution that without sustained international support and internal political unity, Somalia risks losing the momentum in its decades-long battle against Al-Shabaab’s insurgency.
  criticalthreats.org
  
  
• Kashmir Terror Attack Triggers India-Pakistan Clash: A deadly terrorist attack in Indian-administered Kashmir earlier this year has had significant fallout that peaked this week. In April, militants ambushed a group of Hindu pilgrims near Pahalgam, killing 26 civilians – the worst terror attack in India since 2008. India blamed Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed militants, and tensions between the nuclear-armed neighbors spiked into open conflict: India carried out air and artillery strikes on what it called “terror camps” in Pakistan and Pakistani-held Kashmir, prompting Pakistani military retaliation for four days until both sides agreed to a ceasefire. This week, India’s Home Minister Amit Shah announced that Indian forces had hunted down and killed the last three militants responsible for the Pahalgam massacre. He told parliament the three Pakistani nationals were killed in a gunfight in a Kashmir forest on July 28. Shah presented evidence – Pakistani voter ID cards and made-in-Pakistan chocolates recovered from the gunmen – as “proof” of Islamabad’s involvement. Pakistan vehemently denies it orchestrated the attack and has called for an independent investigation, rejecting India’s claims as politically motivated.Internationally, the U.S. labeled the group behind the attack a terrorist organization, aligning with India’s stance. China, by contrast (a Pakistani ally), urged “dialogue” and hinted that India should address Kashmiri grievances. (The bias divide: Indian media largely echo the government’s line that Pakistan sponsors terrorism in Kashmir, focusing on avenging the victims. Pakistani outlets highlight their government’s denial and point to India’s internal issues in Kashmir. Both have partisan elements. What’s clear is that Kashmir remains a powder keg – and this incident brought South Asia to the brink, demonstrating the importance of sustained diplomacy to manage India-Pakistan hostility.)
  reuters.com

WMD & Cyberwarfare

• Iran’s Nuclear Program Hit – But Not Halted: The fallout from June’s U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities dominated WMD news. The Pentagon confirmed that on June 21, the U.S. used “bunker buster” bombs to significantly damage Iran’s underground Fordow enrichment site, while Tomahawk missiles struck Natanz and Esfahan – the first-ever direct U.S. attack on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. Israel had already begun a week of covert operations on June 13, assassinating Iranian nuclear scientists and bombing secondary sites (e.g. Arak reactor). Grossi and the IAEA condemned the attacks as illegal (all facilities were under IAEA safeguards) and noted there was no evidence Iran was weaponizing. U.S. officials are divided on impact: Trump and Israel claim the strikes “eliminated” Iran’s weapons potential for years, while a leaked U.S. DIA report assessed Iran’s program was set back by only “a few months”. In fact, Iran’s known stockpile of ~400 kg of 60% enriched uranium survived the attacks and could still be enriched to 90% (weapons-grade) – enough for ~10 bombs if further processed. Iran defiantly vowed to rebuild its facilities and continue enrichment, even as IAEA inspectors remain barred. Tensions persist: days after the strikes, Iran fired missiles at a U.S. base in Qatar (causing minor damage) and Trump announced a ceasefire on June 24. Tehran is now debating withdrawing from the NPT entirely, and Western diplomats worry Iran might “sneak out” undeclared nuclear materials (the IAEA cannot fully account for the 60% UF6 stockpile after Iran’s “special measures” to hide it). The episode has ignited global debate on pre-emptive strikes vs. diplomatic solutions to Iran’s nuclear file.
  armscontrol.org
  
  
• Tech-intelligence fusion as Israel’s force multiplier: A July 29 Jerusalem Post op-ed by ex-IDF intel chief Amos Yadlin argues Israel’s strategic advantage lies in seamlessly pairing real-time intelligence—powered by AI, cyber tools and a thriving civilian tech sector—with precision fires across land, sea, air and space, giving commanders “instant, decisive action” on a multi-domain battlefield. The piece touts continuous combat experience and rapid innovation as unmatched strengths, though its promotional tone glosses over constraints such as manpower strain and adversaries’ learning curves.
  jpost.com
  
  
• North Korea’s Nuclear Brinkmanship: North Korea continued to escalate its nuclear and missile activities. On July 12, Pyongyang conducted a test of its new solid-fuel ICBM (believed to be Hwasong-19), which flew ~4,600 km into space on a lofted trajectory – enough range to hit the U.S. East Coast if flattened. Trump played down the launch, calling Kim Jong Un a “friend,” but U.S. Pacific Command quietly repositioned missile defense assets to Alaska. Then on July 27 (the Korean War armistice anniversary), North Korea test-fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) from an underwater platform off its east coast, declaring it a warning to “hostile forces.” In response, the U.S., South Korea, and Japan held a joint missile defense drill. Concurrently, North Korea signaled conditional openness to talks (as noted in Flashpoints), but insisted the U.S. must accept it as a nuclear-armed state – a demand Washington rejects. Separately, a U.N. report revealed that North Korean hackers stole over $200 million in cryptocurrency from exchanges in 2025 so far, helping fund its weapons programs. The U.S. Treasury imposed new sanctions on Pyongyang’s Technical Reconnaissance Bureau (its cyber unit) and warned China to crack down on laundering of stolen crypto through Chinese banks. Despite sanctions and diplomatic isolation, North Korea is clearly pushing ahead with warhead miniaturization and tactical nuclear weapon development, raising the stakes for the peninsula and beyond.
  nknews.org