Highlighted Works by Mackinder Forum Members (July 12–18, 2025)

• Kamran Bokhari – “Azerbaijan Is in the Middle East for the Long Haul” – Geopolitical Futures – July 17, 2025 – geopoliticalfutures.com
  
  

• Kamran Bokhari & Mark Polyak – “The Geopolitics of Code: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of American Soft Power” – The National Interest (Techland blog) – July 17, 2025 – nationalinterest.org
  
  

• Kamran Bokhari – “Conflict With Pakistan Undermines India’s Geoeconomic Fortunes” – Forbes, July 17, 2025 – forbes.com
  
  

• Francis P. Sempa – “Trump Doctrine is the Nixon Doctrine 2.0” – RealClearWorld – July 12, 2025 - realclearworld.com
  
  

• Francis P. Sempa – “Harry Truman at Potsdam — As Naïve As FDR” – The American Spectator – July 17, 2025 – spectator.org
  
  

• Michael Sobolik – “Embodied AI: How the US Can Beat China to the Next Tech Frontier” – Hudson Institute (Policy Memo) – July 15, 2025 – hudson.org
  
  

• Kamran Bokhari – “A Battle Damage Assessment of the Iranian Regime” – Geopolitical Futures, June 26, 2025 - geopoliticalfutures.com (From last month)

Geopolitical Bulletin (July 12–18, 2025)

Geoeconomics

• US–EU Trade Clash Escalates: Europe warned that President Trump’s threat to impose a 30% tariff on EU goods could “practically prohibit” transatlantic trade. EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič said such a tariff would make normal trade “almost impossible,” and Brussels is bracing for retaliatory steps even as both sides profess to seek a negotiated settlement, reflecting high tensions over Trump’s aggressive trade agenda (Source: CNN; note: Western perspectives highlighted).
  kesq.com
  
  
• G20 Reaffirms Central Bank Independence: At a summit in Durban, G20 finance chiefs issued their first joint communiqué since 2024, pointedly endorsing central bank independence and the WTO’s importance. The statement – agreed despite the absence of the U.S. Treasury Secretary – comes after repeated attacks by President Trump on the U.S. Federal Reserve for not slashing interest rates. “Central bank independence is crucial to price stability,” the communiqué stressed. Finance ministers also pledged to boost economic cooperation and support open trade, in what observers see as a rebuke to Trump’s go-it-alone tariff escalations. Notably, this consensus was forged while Washington’s delegation was led only by a junior official – a signal of U.S. disengagement that other G20 members quietly worked around. (Bias note: Reuters highlights global policymakers’ implicit pushback to Trump’s policies. U.S. officials have downplayed the rift, but the communique’s language – praising the WTO and multilateralism – contrasts with Trump’s tariff-centric approach, underscoring a growing divide between the U.S. and its G20 partners.)
  reuters.com
  
  
• US Targets Russian Oil Trade: President Trump threatened sanctions on countries buying Russian oil unless Moscow agrees to a Ukraine peace deal. The warning—aimed at major importers like China, India and Turkey—casts uncertainty over global oil flows and marks a sharp escalation in U.S. economic pressure on Russia, though critics warn it could roil energy markets and provoke pushback from the targeted nations
  reuters.com
  
  
• China’s Economy Slows Amid Trade War Fears: China reported 5.2% GDP growth in Q2 (year-on-year), narrowly beating forecasts, but economic momentum is faltering. Consumer demand remains weak and deflationary pressures loom despite government stimulus. Analysts warn that a deteriorating export outlook and renewed U.S. tariff threats will strain Beijing in the second half. Indeed, President Donald Trump’s return has brought a “breathless cycle of punitive tariff policies” that threaten global trade. Beijing has propped up growth through infrastructure spending and rate cuts, but entrenched problems – a property downturn and fragile consumer confidence – persist. With Trump’s tariff truce set to lapse in August, Chinese factories have front-loaded shipments while bracing for tougher U.S. trade barriers. (Bias note: China’s official tone remains upbeat publicly, but even state media acknowledge “policy support” is vital to hit growth targets. The contrasting subtext: Western observers highlight structural weaknesses and tariff impacts, whereas Beijing emphasizes resilience and stimulus measures.)
  reuters.com
  
  
• EU Hits Russia with New Sanctions: EU member states approved their 18th sanctions package against Russia, targeting oil exports and finance. The bloc lowered the price cap on Russian oil from $60 to $47.60 per barrel and blacklisted over 100 “shadow fleet” tankers and several Chinese banks and an India-based refinery for aiding sanctions evasion. Slovakia had stalled the package over its reliance on Russian gas but lifted its veto after EU assurances on energy prices. EU leaders hailed the measures as among the “strongest” yet, intended to “strike at the heart of Russia’s war machine,” while Moscow’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed them as illegal and claimed Russia has “developed a certain immunity”. (Bias note: Western sources like AFP/Euronews portray the sanctions as a principled tightening of pressure on Moscow. Russian officials insist the West is harming itself and that Russia has adapted, reflecting the Kremlin’s narrative of resilience.)
  themoscowtimes.com
  
  
• Africa Seeks Self-Reliance as Tariffs Bite: African leaders are fast-tracking the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) to reduce reliance on volatile global markets. The drive comes as U.S. tariffs – some as high as 50% on goods from countries like Lesotho – threaten to “decimate industries” across Africa. “We’ve got to accelerate our own value chains… the weaponization of trade policy is unprecedented,” warned AfCFTA Secretary-General Wamkele Mene. Only 24 of 49 ratifying countries are actively trading under AfCFTA so far, hampered by infrastructure gaps and complex borders. But with Trump’s tariffs rattling export access, Africa is pushing to boost intra-continental trade (up 12% last year) and even explore moving away from the US dollar in transactions. G20 finance ministers meeting in Durban – under South Africa’s presidency – also put trade cooperation high on the agenda. (Bias note: Reuters amplifies African officials’ perspective that U.S. protectionism is forcing Africa’s hand. Washington has argued tariffs are needed to protect U.S. jobs, but that view finds little sympathy in African commentary, which describes tariffs as “weaponized” and destabilizing.)
  reuters.com

Military Developments

• Patriot Missiles Rushed to Ukraine: NATO allies are accelerating deliveries of Patriot air-defense systems to Ukraine to counter an intense Russian missile and drone barrage. After President Trump pledged additional Patriots, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, Lt. Gen. Alexis Grynkiewicz, said he’s been ordered “to move out as quickly as possible” on transfers. Germany is considering sending two Patriot batteries from its own stocks (a major policy shift), and Norway offered financing for another system. A NATO coordination meeting next week in Belgium will focus on reinforcing Ukraine’s strained air defenses. Kyiv has urgently requested more Patriots to thwart record Russian barrages that have overwhelmed its existing SAM network. (Bias note: Western outlets emphasize the defensive need and alliance unity in speeding Patriots. Russian media, by contrast, portrays new Western weapons as escalatory; Moscow has warned that bolstering Ukraine’s high-end air defenses crosses “red lines,” though those threats have not deterred NATO assistance.)
  themoscowtimes.com
  
  
• Russian Fiber-Optic Drones Shift Battlefield: Moscow’s forces have fielded new fiber-optic guided drones that are impervious to jamming, giving them a lethal edge in recent fighting. Ukrainian engineers say these virtually undetectable drones – used heavily in the Kursk region – are “revolutionizing” warfare by striking targets with precision while evading electronic warfare, forcing Ukraine to scramble for similar tech to avoid further setbacks (Source: The Moscow Times; note: independent Russian outlet reporting Ukrainian concerns).
  themoscowtimes.com
  
  
• Ukraine’s Grinding Summer Fighting: On the ground in Ukraine, Russian forces pressed a slow offensive in the eastern Donetsk region, even as Ukraine’s counteroffensive struggles against well-fortified lines. Backed by relentless artillery and aerial attacks, Russian troops have “methodically captured” several villages and are inching toward the strategic towns of Pokrovsk and Kostyantynivka. Moscow’s aim is to envelop these Ukrainian strongholds to cut supply routes – part of what analysts call a “thousand cuts” strategy to wear down Kyiv’s army rather than achieve rapid breakthroughs. President Trump’s 50-day “peace ultimatum” (demanding Russia agree to a deal or face harsher sanctions) has so far had little effect on the battlefield: Russia used the reprieve to intensify attacks, while Ukraine’s forces, short on ammo and manpower, have largely focused on holding ground. Both sides are taking heavy losses for minimal gains. Western military aid delays have forced Ukrainian units to ration shells even as Russia pounds frontline cities and infrastructure with missile/drone barrages. (Bias note: Russian reports trumpet each village seized as evidence of momentum, often inflating Ukrainian losses. Ukrainian and Western sources acknowledge Russian advances but highlight their slow pace and high cost, noting that dogged Ukrainian defense has prevented any strategic breakthrough. This juxtaposition underscores how each side spins the grinding stalemate to its narrative advantage.)
  abcnews.go.com
  
  
• Israel Strikes in Syria – Israel’s air force conducted powerful strikes on Syrian regime targets in Damascus on July 16, blowing up part of the defense ministry and hitting near the presidential palace as it warned against attacks on the Druze minority near Israel’s border. The unprecedented Israeli intervention – coming amid fierce sectarian fighting in southern Syria – prompted emergency UN Security Council talks; Israel vowed to shield Syria’s Druze community, while Damascus and its allies blasted the strikes as a sovereignty violation, heightening regional tensions.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Taiwan Holds Largest War Games – Taiwan kicked off its 10-day Han Kuang military exercise by deploying new U.S.-supplied HIMARS rocket launchers and simulating an invasion scenario. The drills, which saw Chinese warplanes again encroaching across the Taiwan Strait’s median line, are meant to demonstrate Taipei’s resolve to repel any attack; Beijing denounced the maneuvers as a “bluff,” reflecting ongoing tensions as China intensifies military pressure on the self-ruled island.
  reuters.com

Political & Diplomatic Developments

• Japan’s Ruling Party Braces for Election Rebuke: Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s minority government faces an upper-house vote on July 20 that polls indicate will cost the ruling LDP–Komeito coalition its majority. A stinging loss could force Ishiba’s resignation and complicate urgent U.S.–Japan tariff negotiations, while the surprising rise of a far-right populist party (Sanseito) in this campaign signals a new challenge to Japan’s political establishment (note: analytical tone on Japan’s domestic stability and investor concerns).
  reuters.com
  
  
• Pyongyang and Moscow tighten ‘invincible’ alliance — Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov met Kim Jong Un, hailing Russia–North Korea ties as an “invincible fighting brotherhood” and thanking Pyongyang for sending troops to aid the war in Ukraine. North Korea’s defense ministry pledged to back Russia and warned it would take military action against any perceived threat from the U.S., South Korea or Japan, highlighting deepening military cooperation amid nuclear brinkmanship.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Trump Hosts Middle East Power Diplomacy: President Trump met Qatar’s prime minister in Washington as part of a push to leverage Doha’s ties with Hamas and mediate a Gaza ceasefire. At the same time, Washington signaled openness to a “bigger deal” in the region, including potential Saudi–Israel normalization talks, though critics note Trump’s outreach is transactional and faces skepticism given regional distrust (Sources: Axios/Reuters; note: U.S. administration’s deal-making approach, possible bias toward quick wins).
  reuters.com
  
  
• Major Shake-up in Kyiv’s Leadership: In the biggest wartime government overhaul since the invasion, Ukraine appointed Yulia Svyrydenko as prime minister, its first new PM in five years. Parliament approved an entirely new Cabinet tasked with reviving Ukraine’s struggling, loan-dependent economy and ramping up domestic arms production. Outgoing PM Denys Shmyhal transitioned to Defense Minister, replacing Rustem Umerov. The new government has orders to boost the share of Ukrainian-made weapons from 40% to 50% within six months and cut wartime bureaucracy. President Zelensky hopes fresh leadership can inject energy into reforms and the war effort. (Bias note: Ukrainian media portray the changes as Zelensky’s bold response to economic strains and corruption concerns, praising Svyrydenko’s technocratic credentials. Russian state media, by contrast, casts the shuffle as “Kyiv’s desperation” and speculates (without evidence) about rifts in Zelensky’s team. Neutral observers note the pragmatic timing – midway through a grueling war – as Zelensky seeks to show both Ukrainians and Western donors that he’s serious about tackling inefficiencies.)
  news.sky.com
  
  
• Europe Grapples with Populist Surge: Politicians across the EU are sounding the alarm about rising anti-establishment forces. In Germany, Chancellor Friedrich Merz (a mainstream conservative) warned that “populist, anti-European forces” pose one of the greatest challenges to the EU. He voiced concern over recent electoral gains by Euroskeptic nationalists – noting disappointment with the outcome of Poland’s presidential vote and apprehension about France’s upcoming election. Merz argued the EU must “deliver for citizens” more effectively on issues like migration and the economy to fend off extremes. His comments follow a far-right upswing in polls across several countries (Italy’s government already includes hard-right leaders, and France’s Marine Le Pen is mounting a strong 2027 bid). Meanwhile, in the Netherlands a populist newcomer just won the premiership, and Spain’s elections this month could see a hard-right party enter power. EU officials in Brussels privately share Merz’s fears: next year’s European Parliament elections may see record numbers of nationalist MEPs. (Bias note: Merz’s remarks, reported by The Guardian, reflect the pro-EU consensus view that populism threatens European unity. However, outlets on the nationalist right contend that leaders like Merz are scaremongering to discredit legitimate public anger at EU bureaucracy. The discourse is thus split – establishment voices call for addressing populists’ root causes, while populist voices claim vindication that the establishment is “panicking.”)
  theguardian.com

Geostrategic Flashpoints

• Allies Pressed on Taiwan War Plans: The Pentagon privately urged Japan and Australia to clarify their roles if conflict erupts over Taiwan, catching both off guard. This U.S. push reflects Washington’s concern about China’s military pressure on Taiwan and its expectation that Indo-Pacific allies share more of the defense burden. The issue highlights an increasingly frank American approach under “America First” policies, though it raised allied anxieties (note: Western viewpoint, could signal alliance friction).
  reuters.com
  
  
• Russia Warns Over Arctic Flashpoint: Moscow’s envoy to Denmark cautioned that Russia would take “military and technical measures” if a conflict breaks out over Greenland. Citing NATO’s Arctic activities and even former U.S. President Trump’s renewed interest in buying Greenland, Ambassador Vladimir Barbin said any armed showdown in the icy, resource-rich territory would “undermine regional security” and prompt a Russian response. The bold statement – from an independent Russian outlet – underscores rising big-power jockeying in the Arctic.
  themoscowtimes.com
  
  
• Moscow Vows to Hit Ukraine Harder: Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev dismissed the EU’s latest sanctions and threatened to “intensify” missile strikes on Ukraine. In a hawkish Telegram post, Medvedev claimed new EU oil bans would not change Kremlin policy, and warned that attacks on targets “including Kyiv” will increase in force. His rhetoric, coming as the EU agreed an 18th sanctions package, signals an escalatory stance – met by Washington’s promise of more weapons for Ukraine – but also carries propaganda overtones from a Kremlin hardliner (Source: Reuters; note: Russian official message, confrontational tone).
  reuters.com
  
  
• Other Regions to Watch: North Korea continues to pose a latent flashpoint; Pyongyang’s latest rhetoric lauds its solid-fuel ICBM progress and even references the Ukraine war – boasting of arms shipments to Russia in exchange for diplomatic support. Any new nuclear or missile test by Kim Jong Un could jolt Northeast Asia’s security calculus. In the Eastern Mediterranean, tensions between Turkey and Greece simmer (Turkey’s new UAV base in Northern Cyprus drew Greek protests this week), but high-level talks are tentatively resuming under NATO auspices. The Sahel beyond Sudan also remains volatile – Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger are battling jihadist insurgencies amid junta rule. France’s influence there has waned, and Wagner mercenaries (despite their leader’s demise last year) reportedly remain active, raising Western alarm of further destabilization. The Arctic stays generally calm, though Western analysts keep noting increased Russian-China cooperation in Arctic drills. Overall, while Ukraine and Taiwan dominate headlines, these secondary theatres each carry their own triggers that could rapidly elevate into major crises, underscoring the breadth of today’s geopolitical fault lines.
  themoscowtimes.com

Terrorism & Conflict

• Jihadist Surge in the Sahel: Al-Qaeda’s Sahel franchise (JNIM) has dramatically escalated attacks across Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, killing over 850 people in May alone. Analysts say JNIM is shifting from guerrilla raids to seizing territory around cities, aiming to carve out a “parallel state” across West Africa’s interior. This wave – one of the deadliest in the region’s recent history – comes as foreign troops have withdrawn and Sahel governments, isolated from Western partners, struggle to respond, a fact noted in international reporting.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Iran Rearms Militant Proxies: Despite recent Israeli and U.S. strikes, Iran is rushing weapons to its proxy militias in Lebanon, Yemen and elsewhere, according to intelligence cited by an Israeli outlet. The Jerusalem Post reports Tehran is determined to retain influence via groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis, denying the arms flow even as evidence mounts. Israeli officials see this as a direct challenge following a brief Israel–Iran confrontation in June. (Source: Jerusalem Post; note: Israeli perspective with anti-Iran bias, emphasizing Iran’s “terror proxy” strategy.)
  jpost.com
  
  
• Horn of Africa – Sudan’s War Spills Over: The brutal civil war in Sudan between the army and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continues unabated, threatening regional stability. This week brought fresh atrocities: in North Kordofan, RSF fighters massacred nearly 300 civilians in several villages – burning people alive in their homes and killing even children and pregnant women. Rights monitors say the attacks had “no military targets…clear crimes against humanity”. The U.N. and African Union fear a Rwanda-like scenario unfolding, especially in the western Darfur region where ethnically targeted slaughters have been reported. Over 40,000 people have been killed since April 2023, and 13 million are now in hunger, amid what the U.N. calls the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. Chad and South Sudan are straining under a flood of refugees, and armed clashes have occasionally crossed borders. International attempts at brokering a ceasefire have repeatedly collapsed – the RSF and Sudanese Army delegations haven’t met for talks in over a month, each hoping to win outright. There is also jihadist spillover risk: terrorist groups could exploit the chaos as government control erodes (parts of Darfur and Kordofan are essentially lawless). Neighboring states are nervously holding emergency summits, and the U.S. floated the idea of a U.N. arms embargo on warring Sudanese factions. For now, however, the war rages on – a powder keg at Africa’s crossroads with no peace in sight. (Bias note: Al Jazeera and regional outlets have spotlighted RSF atrocities and civilian suffering in stark terms, reflecting widespread outrage in the Arab and African world. The RSF’s self-styled “Emergency Lawyers” claim rogue elements are to blame and promise internal prosecutions – a narrative few independent observers find credible given RSF’s pattern of abuses. Sudan’s army, for its part, uses these massacres to justify refusing negotiations, portraying itself as the nation’s savior from RSF “terrorism.” Each side continues to spin a tale of legitimacy even as Sudan disintegrates.)
  aljazeera.com
  (Al Jazeera is a global news network financedby the Qatari State).

WMD & Cyber Warfare

• Singapore flags Chinese-linked cyber espionage — Singapore revealed cyberattacks on its critical infrastructure by an espionage group that experts say is linked to China. Officials warned the hackers pose a serious threat to national security, an accusation Beijing routinely denies.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Europe threatens Iran with UN sanctions — France, Britain and Germany warned Iran they will restore U.N. sanctions unless Tehran immediately resumes nuclear talks and delivers concrete results by late August. Iran’s foreign minister rejected the ultimatum as baseless, blaming the U.S. for abandoning diplomacy and accusing the Europeans of applying worn-out pressure tactics that lack any moral or legal basis.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Israeli strikes complicate Syria’s chemical arms cleanup — A Syrian official said Israeli airstrikes on Damascus have forced international inspectors to postpone efforts to destroy Assad-era chemical weapons stockpiles. He claims the raids — which Israel insists were aimed at protecting Syria’s Druze minority — are undermining Damascus’ ability to meet its disarmament obligations under the chemical weapons convention.
  reuters.com
  
  
• AI’s convergence with biology raises doomsday risks — A coalition of experts warned that rapidly advancing tools at the intersection of artificial intelligence and biotechnology could lower barriers for bad actors to engineer deadly pathogens. Their joint statement urges governments, industry and scientists worldwide to implement guardrails to prevent an AI-fueled biological catastrophe while still reaping the technology’s benefits.
  nti.org