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Weekly Geopolitical News Bulletin (Dec 6-12, 2025)

Geoeconomics

• U.S. Cracks Down on Shadow Oil Fleet: Washington escalated its offensive against illicit oil tankers ferrying sanctioned crude. U.S. commandos seized a 332-meter supertanker, the Skipper, off Venezuela’s coast on Dec 10 – the first such seizure of Venezuelan oil under U.S. sanctions. The vessel had just loaded 1.8 million barrels of Venezuelan crude and was falsely flagged to evade detection. In response, Caracas denounced the move as “international piracy.” The next day, the U.S. Treasury slapped sanctions on three of President Maduro’s relatives and six shipping firms tied to Venezuela’s “shadow fleet” of tankers, citing “deceptive” practices that fund Maduro’s “narco-terrorist” regime. Analysts say these steps sharply raise risks for shippers and will likely force Venezuela to offer steeper oil discounts, potentially denting its export volumes.
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• China’s Surplus Stirs Global Trade Tensions: China’s monthly trade surplus hit a record $1 trillion, sparking friction with trading partners. Premier Li Qiang used a Dec 9 Beijing forum to urge nations to reject “rising protectionism,” warning that proliferating tariffs worldwide are “mutually destructive”. But many countries blame China’s export-reliant model for fueling tariff wars. European leaders – including France’s Emmanuel Macron – have threatened tariffs on Chinese goods unless Beijing opens its markets. Li defended China’s policies, pledging to boost domestic demand, yet analysts see little incentive for Beijing to reduce its export juggernaut. With China contributing an unprecedented ~40% of global growth, pressure is mounting on Beijing to curb unfair trade practices, even as it calls for freer trade.
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• U.S. Hits Nicaragua With Tariffs Over Rights Abuses: The Biden administration imposed phased tariffs on all Nicaraguan imports starting Jan 1, 2026, citing Managua’s “unreasonable” labor and human rights practices. Under the measure – the first use of Section 301 trade sanctions for human rights – tariffs will gradually rise to 15% by 2028 on Nicaraguan goods not covered by the CAFTA-DR trade pact. Washington had earlier threatened 100% duties over President Ortega’s repression. Nicaragua’s exports (largely apparel and agriculture) now face mounting costs, pressuring its economy. U.S. officials signal tariffs could be lifted if Managua improves labor conditions and ends crackdowns on civil society. The move underscores a more aggressive U.S. geoeconomic toolkit linking trade penalties to governance and rights.
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• India Defies Sanctions to Secure Russian Oil: India has doubled down on discounted Russian crude despite Western sanctions and pressure. At a Dec 5 summit in New Delhi, Russian President Vladimir Putin promised “uninterrupted” fuel supplies to India – which has become Moscow’s No. 2 oil buyer – even as the U.S. presses New Delhi to cut imports. India’s oil purchases from Russia have indeed surged since 2022, hitting $5.8 billion a month at peak, drawn by prices as low as $35/barrel under the G7’s price cap. Washington responded by doubling tariffs on Indian goods to 50% this year to punish the trade. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has so far balanced between powers – rolling out the red carpet for Putin with new trade and defense deals, even as he negotiates with the U.S. to reduce those punitive tariffs. Indian officials say refiners will adjust purchases based on “market dynamics,” acknowledging sanctions-driven constraints. The tightrope highlights India’s bid to safeguard its energy security while managing great-power expectations.
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• Vietnam Pivots Toward China Amid U.S. Tariffs: Chinese firms are pouring investment into Vietnam as Hanoi hedges against U.S. trade pressure. In an apparent strategic shift, Vietnam this week approved sensitive deals long resisted on security grounds – allowing Huawei and ZTE contracts, Chinese loans for rail projects, and even Chinese COMAC jets for a local airline. This comes after the Trump administration slapped new 20% tariffs on Vietnamese exports, souring Hanoi’s ties with Washington. Chinese imports into Vietnam have since surged ~30% to $168 billion, a record level comprising everything from electronic parts (often re-exported to the West) to consumer goods. Analysts note Vietnam had opened to U.S. investment since the 1990s, wary of Beijing – but now Beijing’s influence is rising as Hanoi leverages China ties to counter U.S. “punitive” measures. While Vietnam still courts the U.S., officials warn it risks becoming a “‘torn country’” if it drifts too far into China’s economic orbit.
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Military Developments

• Allied Bombers Answer China-Russia Drills: The U.S. and Japan mounted a show-of-force air exercise after Chinese and Russian bombers carried out joint flights near Japan and South Korea. On Dec 10, two U.S. B-52 strategic bombers flew over the Sea of Japan escorted by Japanese F-35 stealth fighters and F-15 jets. Tokyo said the mission reaffirmed both nations’ resolve to deter any “unilateral change to the status quo by force.” Beijing and Moscow’s drills earlier in the week had prompted Japan and South Korea to scramble fighters. While a U.S. official downplayed the B-52 flight as long-planned, China accused Japan of making “a fuss about nothing.” Taiwan, meanwhile, reported a spike in Chinese military sorties near its airspace, underscoring heightened regional tensions.
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• Chinese Fighter Locks Radar on Japanese Jet: A dangerous aerial encounter inflamed Sino-Japanese frictions. Japan revealed on Dec 7 that Chinese J-15 fighters from the Liaoning aircraft carrier twice “aimed their fire-control radar” at Japanese F-15s near Okinawa a day prior. Tokyo condemned these radar illuminations – which signal a possible missile launch – as “extremely regrettable” provocations and lodged a protest with Beijing. Japanese defense officials, meeting with Australia’s defense minister, vowed to respond “resolutely and calmly” to maintain regional stability. China’s military denied wrongdoing, claiming Japanese planes had intruded on a routine carrier drill and warning Tokyo to stop “slandering” China’s actions. The incidents near contested isles (within Japan’s EEZ) mark the worst Sino-Japanese military run-ins in years, just as Japan debates stronger counterstrike capabilities to deter China.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Russia-China Bolster Joint Missile Defenses: Beijing and Moscow held a secretive anti-missile exercise in early December, reflecting deepening strategic cooperation. China’s Defense Ministry confirmed the joint missile defense drill – the countries’ third ever – took place in Russia and was “not aimed at any third party”. Previous Russia-China exercises (code-named Aerospace Security in 2016 and 2017) were computer simulations to practice intercepting ballistic and cruise missiles. Analysts told Newsweek the long gap since 2017 suggests an even more complex exercise now, indicating a “growing level of mutual trust” and interoperability between the two militaries. The drill comes as the U.S. deploys new mid-range missiles to Japan, the Philippines, and soon Germany, and advances its “Golden Dome” anti-missile network. By teaming up on missile defense, Moscow and Beijing signal joint resolve to counter U.S. alliances’ missile capabilities, sharing know-how from Russia’s combat experience in Ukraine and China’s own arsenal.
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• Europe Revives Next-Gen Fighter Program: Key EU partners moved to rescue their stalled Future Combat Air System (FCAS) fighter jet project. Defense ministers of Germany, France and Spain met in Berlin Dec 11 to break a deadlock that has paralyzed the €100 billion program for a next-gen stealth fighter. Launched in 2017, FCAS has been mired in industrial rivalries – chiefly a dispute between France’s Dassault Aviation and Airbus over workshare and leadership. Mounting political pressure (and the Ukraine war’s lessons) have prompted leaders to push for progress by year-end. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and France’s Emmanuel Macron plan talks next week, and a German official floated focusing on “combat cloud” networks and drones so each country can still develop its own fighter variant. Meanwhile, powerful German labor union IG Metall warned it would withdraw support if Dassault keeps insisting on sole leadership – underscoring how national interests and corporate ego have hampered Europe’s flagship defense project. The renewed talks aim to salvage FCAS as vital for Europe’s future airpower and strategic autonomy.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Poland’s Record Apache Helicopter Deal: Poland finalized a massive purchase of 96 AH-64E Apache attack helicopters in a U.S. foreign military sale worth $4.7 billion. Boeing announced on Nov 26 it will build the Apaches under a Pentagon contract that represents the largest Apache order ever by a U.S. ally. Deliveries begin in 2028. Poland – NATO’s frontline state bordering Ukraine – is already training pilots on leased U.S. Apaches and has been rapidly rearming with Western kit. This deal comes atop Warsaw’s recent acquisitions of U.S. F-16s and HIMARS, Korean K2 tanks, and more. Polish officials say the new Apaches will replace Soviet-era Mi-24 gunships and dramatically expand their ability to counter armor and fortifications. The move is part of Poland’s goal to field “the strongest land forces in Europe” in response to Russia’s aggression. Neighboring Belarus (a Kremlin ally) has criticized Poland’s militarization. Western analysts note that Moscow’s ongoing provocations – including airspace violations over NATO’s east – have only steeled Warsaw’s resolve. While bolstering NATO’s deterrence, the Apache influx also cements the U.S. as Poland’s top defense partner, deepening Europe’s reliance on American arms.
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Political and Diplomatic Developments

• Ukraine Peace Plan Exposes Rifts Among Allies: Discord emerged over a controversial U.S.-proposed Ukraine peace outline. A French official revealed on Dec 12 that Kyiv, Washington and European capitals are still scrambling to agree on “common ground” for a peace offer to present to Moscow. The U.S.-backed plan circulated last month would have Ukraine make painful concessions – ceding occupied territories, renouncing NATO membership, and limiting its armed forces – terms many in Kyiv and Europe deem overly favorable to Russia. Britain, France and Germany have since been frantically refining the proposal to better secure Ukraine’s core interests. Ideas include fast-tracking Ukraine’s EU accession and providing NATO-style security guarantees (even a U.S.-led “Article 5” pledge) to protect Ukraine post-war. The White House is reportedly pressuring President Zelensky for a quick deal as U.S. election politics loom, but Zelensky is pushing back against any “appeasement.” The scramble to forge a unified position highlights transatlantic splits on how to end the war: Eastern Europeans insist on not rewarding Russian aggression, while Washington prioritizes a ceasefire to focus on China. Talks continue via urgent calls and meetings in hopes of narrowing differences.
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• U.S. Envoy in Minsk Seeks Political Prisoner Releases From Belarus:
  On Dec. 12, U.S. special envoy John Coale met in Minsk with Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko to negotiate the release of political prisoners, under directives from President Donald Trump. The talks are part of a broader U.S. effort to pull Belarus slightly away from Moscow’s orbit while securing human rights concessions; Lukashenko welcomed the discussions and praised recent U.S. outreach. Human rights organizations warn that repression persists, with hundreds still detained, and critics argue Minsk uses prisoners as bargaining chips even as some are released. This diplomatic engagement represents a significant thaw in U.S.-Belarus relations after years of isolation due to Belarus’s rights record and backing for Russia’s war in Ukraine.
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• Belarus Seeks Broader Role in Latin American Politics Amid Trump Pressure:
  Dec. 11 reporting shows Belarusian President Lukashenko held a second recent meeting with Venezuela’s ambassador, signaling support for Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro while under U.S. pressure for Maduro to step down. The talks come as Washington escalates efforts to sideline Maduro, calling for his removal and exploring legal amnesty options, and reflect Belarus’s attempt to position itself as a broker in international disputes. Lukashenko’s continued engagement with both Russia and Venezuela complicates Western diplomacy, suggesting Minsk may leverage geo-strategic relationships to gain concessions from both sides.
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• U.N. Committee Urges Britain and Mauritius Not to Ratify Chagos Islands Deal:
  On Dec. 8, the U.N. Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination urged Britain and Mauritius not to ratify a sovereignty agreement over the Chagos Islands, citing concerns that it fails to protect displaced Chagossians’ rights. Under the deal, sovereignty would transfer to Mauritius while Britain retains control of the U.K.-U.S. military base on Diego Garcia under lease. The committee warned that the agreement does not provide reparations or guarantee Chagossians’ return, continuing a decades-long sovereignty dispute that has diplomatic and legal ramifications for human rights and strategic military cooperation in the Indian Ocean.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Trump Announces Thailand–Cambodia Ceasefire After Diplomatic Intervention:
  On Dec. 12, U.S. President Donald Trump said Thailand and Cambodia agreed to cease all shooting effective Friday, following renewed instability along their disputed border. The announcement came after calls with both leaders aimed at reestablishing peace after earlier hostilities that erupted in early December, eroding a previous ceasefire. The diplomatic move, made by social media post, underscores Washington’s continued role as a regional mediator in Southeast Asia and reflects sustained U.S. engagement as both countries seek to stem violence and prevent further displacement and instability.
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Geostrategic Flashpoints

• WSJ Simulates Chinese Invasion of Taiwan: An in-depth Wall Street Journal analysis this week depicted in vivid detail how a Chinese amphibious invasion of Taiwan might unfold. The hypothetical scenario envisions a massive missile barrage (“Joint Firepower Strike”) crippling Taiwan’s defenses, followed by waves of PLA amphibious armor hitting beaches under withering artillery. Simultaneously, Chinese paratroopers would seize key airfields like Taoyuan Airport before dawn – or die trying – to allow follow-on forces. The analysis underscores that an all-out Taiwan war would be one of the most challenging and bloodiest military operations imaginable, likely devastating the global economy and “changing the course of the 21st century”. It also notes Beijing’s intense preparations: President Xi has ordered the PLA to “get ready” for Taiwan, driving a rapid buildup, even as he knows the difficulties (and is not certain to invade). Though hypothetical, the piece has rattled nerves in Taipei and Washington. Taiwanese officials say they’re hardening beaches and practicing “porcupine” defenses, while U.S. Pacific forces are drilling to intervene.
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• China-Philippines Clash at Sea: Tensions spiked again in the South China Sea as China claimed to have “expelled” Philippine vessels and aircraft from disputed waters. On Dec 12, China’s military said a Philippine maritime patrol plane “invaded” airspace over Scarborough Shoal – a rich fishing ground Beijing seized from Manila in 2012 – and was driven off after repeated PLA warnings. Separately, China’s Coast Guard confronted multiple Philippine boats near Sabina (Escoda) Shoal, blaring orders and forcing them to leave under threat. The Philippines, which did not immediately comment, has in the past rejected China’s accounts and accused Chinese ships of dangerous maneuvers. These incidents are part of a “series of confrontations” this year in the strategic waterway. Manila notes Scarborough lies 120 nm off its coast – within its EEZ – and an international tribunal ruled China’s claims invalid in 2016, a ruling Beijing ignores. Tensions have flared especially since October, when Chinese vessels collided with Philippine boats near Second Thomas Shoal. The U.S. voiced support for treaty ally Philippines, warning China against “provocations.” As China fortifies atolls and the Philippines fortifies its legal and military stance, the risk of a miscalculation in this flashpoint remains high.
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• Ukraine Forces Encircle Russians in Kupiansk: On Europe’s eastern flashpoint, Ukraine notched a symbolic battlefield success even as peace efforts stalled. President Volodymyr Zelensky made a surprise visit to the frontline town of Kupiansk (Kharkiv region) on Dec 12, where Ukrainian troops say they recaptured several districts and trapped hundreds of Russian soldiers. Wearing a flak vest in a muddy forward position, Zelensky declared that “results on the front lines” strengthen Ukraine’s hand in diplomacy. Russia had claimed in November to fully control Kupiansk – a rail hub it seized early in the war, then lost last year – but Kyiv’s map now shows Russian units encircled in the town center. In fact, an open-source DeepState map confirms at least three nearby villages liberated by Ukraine. The surprise Ukrainian counter-blow comes amid a wider Russian winter offensive: Moscow has stepped up attacks in the eastern Donbas, and just days ago said it captured Siversk (Kyiv denies it). Kupiansk’s fate holds outsized weight – it was one of Russia’s few gains this fall. Its partial “re-liberation” is a morale boost for Kyiv, showing that even as Western attention wavers, Ukrainians are still clawing back territory and keeping Russian advances in check.
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Terrorism and Conflict

• Ukraine Retakes Territory as War Grinds On: In Europe’s biggest conflict, Ukraine and Russia traded blows along a frozen front. Ukraine scored a tactical victory around Kupiansk in the northeast, encircling an estimated 300 Russian troops and recapturing villages (see Flashpoints). President Zelensky visited the front to rally troops, saying battlefield gains bolster Ukraine’s leverage in any peace talks. However, Russia continued heavy assaults elsewhere: its forces intensified attacks around Bakhmut and Avdiivka in the Donbas, using massed artillery and mobilized infantry to inch forward. Moscow also claims to have seized the small city of Siversk (Kyiv denies loss). Civilians endure relentless suffering – this week Russian missiles struck a public market in Kharkiv region, killing 16. In Russian-occupied Melitopol, a car bomb killed a local police chief in an apparent Ukrainian partisan attack. Meanwhile, Moscow escalated its long-range bombardment: it launched Iranian-made drones at Kyiv three nights straight; all were shot down, but falling debris killed 2 and damaged power infrastructure. With neither side achieving a breakthrough, winter is setting in: Ukraine worries a renewed Russian offensive could target the Zaporizhzhia front or even a northern thrust from Belarus. Both armies are battered – Russia is reportedly deploying freshly formed “Storm-Z” penal battalions, while Ukraine begs for more Western weapons (especially air defenses and artillery shells) to sustain its fight. Despite war-weariness creeping into Western publics, NATO foreign ministers meeting in Brussels pledged to “stand with Ukraine…as long as it takes.” For millions of Ukrainians, this winter will be the second in bombed-out homes without heat or sufficient electricity, as an attritional war with no quick resolution grinds on.
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• Terrorist Explosive Device Kills and Injures Civilians in Kyiv (Ukraine): On Dec 11, Ukrainian authorities classified twin explosions in Kyiv’s Darnytskyi district as a terrorist attack, after a homemade bomb detonated in a populated area, killing one and injuring four people, including a National Guard soldier. The Kyiv City Prosecutor’s Office said investigators, along with the Security Service of Ukraine, have opened a pretrial investigation to determine responsibility and whether Russian-backed special services played a role. While the office has not publicly attributed the attack to a specific group, the incident reflects Moscow’s ongoing strategy of targeting urban centers to spread fear and disruption deep inside Ukrainian-held territory, complicating Kyiv’s security environment even as frontline campaigning continues. The attack comes amid other insurgent and irregular threats in Ukraine, blending conventional warfare with terror tactics aimed at civilian targets.
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• Sudan’s Worsening Civil War: Sudan’s internal conflict – often overshadowed by wars elsewhere – saw escalating violence and dire new warnings. The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) continued its advance, having seized Darfur’s capital El Fasher in October and now pushing east into Kordofan, even capturing Sudan’s largest oilfield this month. U.N. refugee chief Filippo Grandi cautioned on Dec 9 that if the RSF assaults a major city like El Obeid, it could trigger “another exodus” of civilians across borders. Already, Sudan’s 8-month civil war between the RSF and the national army has become the world’s biggest displacement crisis: nearly 12 million people (one in four Sudanese) have fled their homes. About 4.3 million have escaped abroad – mainly to Chad, South Sudan, and Egypt – but many more are trapped inside Sudan’s conflict zones. Humanitarian access remains extremely limited: relief teams finally reached parts of El Fasher this week after reports of ethnic massacres by RSF militias there. The U.N. warns Darfur is seeing “mass atrocities” reminiscent of its early-2000s genocide. Aid organizations, starved of funding and facing security risks, say they can “barely respond” to even a fraction of needs as refugees arrive having been robbed, raped or bereaved on their journey. The war has also regional implications: it threatens to destabilize neighbors (Chad has taken in 1.2 million Sudanese and is struggling) and could create a vacuum for extremists. Diplomatically, peace talks brokered by Saudi Arabia and the U.S. remain suspended amid ceasefire violations. With neither the RSF nor the army willing to compromise, Sudan appears headed into 2026 with no peace in sight and a potential humanitarian catastrophe worsening by the day.
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• Dozens Killed in Myanmar Hospital Strike Amid Armed Conflict: On Dec 12, a military airstrike in western Rakhine State, Myanmar struck the Mrauk U General Hospital, killing at least 31 civilians and injuring dozens more, according to eyewitnesses and aid workers. The Arakan Army (AA), an ethnic armed group fighting the military junta since the 2021 coup, blamed a junta aircraft for the strike; Myanmar’s junta has not publicly taken responsibility. The United Nations and U.S. officials condemned the attack as a possible war crime, highlighting the deteriorating humanitarian situation as the country approaches a disputed Dec 28 election. The region has seen escalating clashes between the AA and government forces, with civilian infrastructure increasingly caught in the crossfire. This incident underscores how longstanding ethnic insurgencies in Myanmar continue to produce high-casualty events that cross into the realm of terrorism, lawless violence, and violations of international humanitarian law.
  theguardian.com
  
  

WMD & Cyber Warfare

• U.S. Indicts Russian-Backed Hackers: The U.S. Justice Department announced sweeping actions Dec 9 to disrupt two Russian state-sponsored hacking groups responsible for cyberattacks worldwide. In Los Angeles, prosecutors unsealed indictments against Victoria “Vika” Dubranova – a 33-year-old Ukrainian hacker extradited earlier this year – accusing her of leading pro-Russian “hacktivist” collectives known as CyberArmyofRussia_Reborn (CARR) and NoName057(16). These groups, while outwardly civilian, are alleged to be funded and directed by Russia’s GRU military intelligence to carry out disruptive cyber campaigns furthering Moscow’s geopolitical goals. According to the indictments, CARR and NoName orchestrated hundreds of distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) attacks – flooding websites with traffic to knock them offline – against targets including U.S. critical infrastructure (water systems, airports) and European government sites supportive of Ukraine. Dubranova pleaded not guilty at her arraignment; trials are set for early 2026. The DOJ also offered rewards up to $10 million for information leading to the arrest of several co-conspirators still at large in Russia. U.S. officials stressed this marks the first time a Russian-aligned hacktivist has been brought to justice. “Whether directly by state actors or by criminal proxies, malicious Russian cyber activity will be exposed and pursued,” said the Assistant Attorney General for National Security. The FBI revealed CARR used Kremlin funds to rent botnets and hacking tools, while NoName was run via an IT unit formed by a 2018 Russian presidential order. This case underscores a growing trend: Russia leveraging pseudo-anonymous hacktivists to attack Western networks, blurring lines between cybercrime and state cyberwarfare. The U.S. is responding by publicly attributing and indicting such actors – even if those hiding in Russia may never see a U.S. courtroom, naming and shaming can impede their operations and deter others.
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• Kim Sends North Korean Troops to Fight in Ukraine: In a striking revelation, North Korea’s Kim Jong Un publicly lauded his army’s role in overseas combat missions – effectively confirming reports that North Korean forces have been deployed to assist Russia’s war in Ukraine. At a ruling Workers’ Party meeting on Dec 11, Kim praised 2025’s achievements, including “various soldiers…participated in overseas military operations to demonstrate our military’s reputation”. North Korean state media boasted that this showcased the DPRK’s “accelerated forward momentum.” Western intelligence has long suspected that Kim struck a secret deal with President Putin: Pyongyang sends ammunition, missiles – and units of its military – to bolster Russia, in exchange for energy and advanced weapons technology. Indeed, U.S. and South Korean officials say North Korea has already supplied Russia with some 10,000 artillery shells a month and possibly dispatched an elite contingent (around 300 personnel) to eastern Ukraine to operate rocket systems and train Russian troops. Kim’s remarks, though oblique, lend credence. North Korea hasn’t fought abroad since the 1980s (when it sent pilots to Syria), so this marks a historic shift – and a new axis of military cooperation between two nuclear-armed states hostile to the West. U.S. National Security Council spokesmen condemned Pyongyang’s involvement, warning it prolongs the war. Meanwhile, Russia is reportedly in talks to acquire North Korean 122 mm rockets and even anti-tank guided missiles to replenish its stocks. Kim and Putin’s burgeoning defense pact – which includes plans for joint exercises and technology sharing – is ringing alarm bells in Seoul and Washington. It raises the stakes: by entangling North Korea in Europe’s war, Putin risks giving Kim combat experience and earning future support from Russia in Asia’s flashpoints. Washington has hinted at new sanctions on any entities facilitating this illicit troop deployment.
  reuters.com