Highlighted Works by Mackinder Forum Members

• Democracy Promotion is Dead: Good Riddance
  Francis P. Sempa
  RealClearDefense
  August 11, 2025
  highlandcountypress.com

• The US in the South Caucasus and Implications for Eurasia
  Kamran Bokhari
  Geopolitical Futures
  August 14, 2025
  geopoliticalfutures.com

• $10 Million in Abortifacient Contraceptives Are Going Up in Smoke
  Steven W. Mosher
  Population Research Institute
  August 12, 2025
  pop.org
  

Geopolitical Bulletin (August 9–15, 2025)

Geoeconomics

• US–Japan Trade Accord Resolves Tariff Dispute: Washington confirmed that imports from Japan will not face “tariff stacking” under President Trump’s new reciprocal tariff scheme. A White House official acknowledged an error in the original executive order and agreed Japan’s new 15% duties will replace (not add to) existing tariffs. The accord caps most Japanese goods at 15% and lowers US auto import tariffs from 27.5% to 15%, mirroring an EU deal. Tokyo welcomed the fix, and the US promised to refund any excess duties collected during the mix-up.
  english.kyodonews.net

• US and China Extend Tariff Truce: President Trump postponed looming tariff hikes on Chinese goods by 90 days, averting an escalation that would have sent duties soaring to 145% on Chinese exports (and 125% on US exports). He signed an order extending the US–China tariff truce to November 10, allowing more time for trade talks. Beijing issued a parallel pause on retaliatory tariffs. The reprieve relieved markets as the holiday import season approaches. Analysts note the truce, while easing near-term tensions, is only a temporary detente amid deeper US–China economic rivalry.
  reuters.com

• China’s Economy Slows, Edges Toward Deflation: New data underscore sluggish demand in China. Factory prices fell 3.6% in July year-on-year (the steepest drop in two years), while consumer prices were flat at 0.0% – a stark sign of deflationary pressure. Core inflation ticked up to 0.8% (17-month high) as Beijing curbed price wars in some sectors, but overall spending remains weak. Chinese authorities have rolled out piecemeal stimulus and “anti-deflation” measures (targeted infrastructure spending, property easing), yet consumer confidence is tepid amid a housing slump and high youth unemployment ~20%. (Note: Reuters calls the figures a deflation warning sign; Chinese state media insist the economy is “stabilizing”, though plans for broader stimulus are reportedly under debate in Beijing.)
  reuters.com

• Caucasus Peace Deal Yields US Leverage: Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a US-brokered peace agreement on Aug. 8, ending their decades-long conflict. The deal reopens transport links and grants the United States sole development rights over a new 20-mile transit corridor through southern Armenia. Dubbed the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity,” the corridor will connect Azerbaijan proper to its Nakhchivan exclave. Observers say Washington’s role in this corridor – at the expense of Russian influence – gives the US key strategic leverage in the Caucasus. Iran, which borders the route, has reacted warily, while global leaders praised the accord and even suggested Trump for a Nobel prize.
  theguardian.com
  cfr.org

• Vietnam Launches ‘Asian Tiger’ Economic Reforms: Vietnam’s government embarked on its most ambitious economic overhaul in decades, aiming to become the next “tiger” economy by 2045. Party chief To Lam declared a “new era of development,” rolling out strategic tax breaks and R&D support to foster high-tech industries (chips, AI, green energy) in hubs like Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. The state is heavily investing in infrastructure, including civilian nuclear power and a $67 billion high-speed rail line spanning the country. Reforms also call for consolidating Vietnam’s 63 provinces into 34 and empowering the private sector as the “most important force” in the economy. These sweeping changes come as Vietnam grapples with an aging population and competition from regional rivals, but leaders vow “all hands on deck” to avoid the middle-income trap.
  apnews.com

Military Developments

• UK Carrier Strike Group in Japan: A British aircraft carrier group led by HMS Prince of Wales arrived in Japan on Aug. 12 – the first Royal Navy carrier port call in four years – signaling deeper UK–Japan security ties. The carrier docked at Yokosuka Naval Base and was joined by destroyer HMS Dauntless and Norway’s frigate Roald Amundsen for a visit through early September. In joint drills, British F-35B stealth fighters from Prince of Wales even landed on Japan’s carrier JS Kaga alongside US Marine F-35Bs – a milestone in interoperability as Japan converts its helicopter carriers for jet operations. British officials hailed the “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” partnership, and Japan noted the visit follows a new defense pact and a three-way project with Italy to co-develop a next-gen fighter jet by 2035.
  english.kyodonews.net.

• US–Philippines Bolster Missile Defense: Manila’s ambassador revealed talks with Washington about deploying additional US missile launchers in the Philippines to strengthen deterrence amid South China Sea tensions. In April, the US brought a Typhon land-based missile system (capable of firing SM-6 and Tomahawk missiles) to northern Luzon for exercises, and this year also positioned an anti-ship launcher in Batanes, near Taiwan. China fiercely protested these moves as aimed at “containing” Beijing, demanding their removal – a demand the Philippines flatly rejected. The allies are now considering deploying the Navy/Marine NMESIS coastal missile system along Philippine shores facing the South China Sea. “This is part of the strong US–Philippines defense partnership,” Ambassador Jose Romualdez said, framing economic ties and investments as bolstering a “more capable and reliable” Philippine defense.
  english.kyodonews.net

• US Arms Sale to Nigeria Targets Terrorists: The US State Department approved a $346 million weapons sale to Nigeria to help it combat insurgent and terrorist threats. The Pentagon notified Congress of the proposed Foreign Military Sale, which includes advanced munitions, precision bombs and rockets for the Nigerian Air Force. The package comes as Nigeria faces a resurgence of Boko Haram violence in the northeast – Islamist militants have overrun army outposts, planted roadside bombs and terrorized civilians in recent months. The decade-long conflict has killed ~35,000 people and displaced over 2 million. US officials said the sale will improve Nigeria’s capacity to target terrorists and stem illicit trafficking, stressing it won’t undermine US defense readiness. This follows nearly $1 billion in US arms sales to Nigeria in 2022 and underscores Washington’s continued security cooperation in West Africa.
  abcnews.go.com

• Electronic Warfare Changing the Battlefield: Electronic warfare (EW) has emerged as a decisive factor across modern air, land, and sea combat. Once a niche support tool used by pilots to evade radar and missiles, EW now shapes entire campaigns, often determining the success or failure of complex military operations. A recent analysis highlights how advanced jamming, spoofing, and signal intercept capabilities can neutralize enemy air defenses, blind sensors, and cripple communications on the battlefield. For example, Israel’s new Scorpius EW system and Russia’s extensive use of jamming in Ukraine show that controlling the electromagnetic spectrum is increasingly as vital as kinetic firepower. Militaries worldwide are racing to develop next-generation EW units – from drone-mounted jammers to shipborne cyber-electronic suites – to gain this “invisible” edge in conflicts.
  jpost.com

Political and Diplomatic Developments

• Trump–Putin Summit Centers on Ukraine’s Fate: Former U.S. President Donald Trump and Russia’s Vladimir Putin held a high-stakes summit in Anchorage, Alaska on Aug. 15 to discuss ending the Ukraine war. In talks described as potentially war-shaping, Putin pressed his longstanding demands for Ukraine to cede territory – the Kremlin insists on recognition of Russia’s control over swaths of eastern and southern Ukraine. Putin has long coveted these regions (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson, and Crimea), some of which are only partially occupied by his forces. Trump, for his part, floated a “land swap” idea in vague terms, suggesting Russia might return some occupied land to Kyiv. European leaders and Kyiv are alarmed: Ukraine’s President Zelensky and EU officials pointedly urged Trump (in a pre-summit call) to respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and not strike a private deal over Ukrainian territory. Notably, Zelensky was not invited to the summit, heightening fears of a backroom bargain. (Trump hinted he could “know in five minutes” if a peace deal is possible, while Putin seeks the West’s acceptance of Russia’s territorial claims.) The summit’s outcome remains uncertain, but it has spotlighted the contested Ukrainian lands at the core of any potential peace.
  msn.com(via WSJ)
  tovima.com

• Seoul’s New Leader Reaches Out to Tokyo: In a landmark Liberation Day speech on Aug. 15, South Korea’s President Lee Jae-myung signaled a thaw with Japan while insisting on historical truth. Marking 80 years since Korea’s independence from Japanese rule, Lee called Japan “an indispensable partner” and pledged “forward-looking, mutually beneficial cooperation”. However, he urged Tokyo to “squarely face” the fraught history the nations share – from forced labor to wartime sexual slavery – saying unresolved grievances still cause Korean victims to suffer. Lee’s tone was notably pragmatic. Formerly known as a hardliner on Japan, he has embraced the conciliatory policies of his predecessor Yoon: for example, supporting a Korean fund to compensate forced labor victims without demanding direct payments from Japanese firms. He announced plans to resume regular “shuttle diplomacy” visits with Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, and indeed flew to Tokyo the next day for a bilateral summit – the first such meeting of the new administration. Japanese officials cautiously welcomed Lee’s overtures. Both sides hope improved ties (after years of tension over history) can strengthen trilateral security cooperation with the US, especially as North Korea remains a threat. Notably, Lee also used his speech to propose restoring a 2018 inter-Korean military accord and reducing tensions with Pyongyang, indicating a broader diplomatic reset in Northeast Asia.
  nbcnews.com
  english.kyodonews.net

Geostrategic Flashpoints

• Near Clash in the East China Sea: A secret 2024 incident between China and Japan only came to light this week, underscoring ongoing flashpoints. According to a Kyodo News report (disputed by Tokyo), Chinese naval vessels fired two warning shots at a Japanese destroyer that inadvertently entered China’s territorial waters during PLA live-fire drills last year. The Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyer JS Suzutsuki sailed within 12 nm of China’s Zhejiang coast on July 4, 2024 – apparently due to a navigation error – and Chinese warships repeatedly warned it to turn back. China then allegedly fired one warning shot before the destroyer crossed the boundary and another after it intruded. This week, Japan’s Ministry of Defense denied any warning shots occurred, saying no SDF vessel has ever been fired upon by China. Beijing’s foreign ministry, pointedly asked about the incident, neither confirmed nor denied it – merely vowing to handle intrusions per law. Notably, Suzutsuki’s captain was quietly relieved of command soon after the 2024 episode. The episode – whether or not shots were fired – highlights the razor-thin margin for error in the East China Sea, where Japanese and Chinese forces (especially around the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu islets) frequently shadow each other. It also comes amid rising Japanese vigilance: just days ago, Tokyo accused Chinese coast guard ships of firing water cannon and playing dangerous games of chicken with Japanese vessels near contested waters.
  stripes.com
  kyodonews.net

• South China Sea Tensions Boil Over: The disputed South China Sea saw a dangerous stand-off between China and the Philippines that alarmed the region. Last week, two Chinese coast guard ships collided with each other while aggressively maneuvering to block a Philippine patrol near Scarborough Shoal, a rich fishing ground claimed by both countries. The rare collision – apparently accidental – occurred as multiple Chinese vessels attempted to “drive away” a much smaller Philippine Coast Guard boat. No Filipinos were hurt, but the incident escalated fears of a miscalculation at sea. The US Navy responded within days by sailing two warships near Scarborough in a “freedom of navigation” operation, affirming that the shoal lies in international waters. Both Beijing and Manila protested each other’s actions: China accused the Philippines (a US treaty ally) of trespassing in its territory, while Manila condemned China’s “dangerous maneuvers” and refusal to allow Filipino ships into traditional fishing areas. The accident at Scarborough – coming on the heels of Chinese ships using water cannons and even “sideswiping” a Philippine vessel during a marine research mission – has drawn international calls for restraint. Neighboring ASEAN countries voiced support for Manila, and the EU and US reiterated that any armed attack on Philippine public vessels would trigger mutual defense commitments. Scarborough Shoal remains a powder keg: it’s a key flashpoint where China’s quest to enforce its sweeping maritime claims directly confronts a smaller U.S.-backed claimant, with the risk that an unintended clash could spiral.
  scmp.com
  english.kyodonews.net

• Grim Battles in Eastern Ukraine: On the ground in Ukraine, intense fighting continued even as diplomacy played out abroad. Russia’s military announced the capture of two more villages in Donetsk oblast on Aug. 14, part of a renewed offensive in the east. Moscow’s forces have been pressing a slow advance toward the city of Sloviansk, using massed artillery and mobilized infantry to inch forward. In response, Ukraine ordered civilian evacuations from threatened districts of Donetsk, signaling that the security situation has deteriorated. Ukrainian units are fighting fiercely to slow the Russian advance, and officials in Kyiv emphasize that any temporary Russian gains do not change their rejection of territorial concessions. Indeed, Ukraine’s government has flatly ruled out ceding land as part of any peace deal – calling Putin’s demands “unacceptable.” Nevertheless, with Russian troops slowly expanding their foothold and fortifying lines in Donetsk and Luhansk, some Western analysts worry that if Ukraine’s counteroffensive doesn’t regain momentum, pressure could mount (especially from Trump) for Kyiv to negotiate from a position of weakness. For now, Ukrainian forces continue to receive Western weapons and are trying to achieve localized breakthroughs in the south, even as they shore up defenses in the embattled east.
  tovima.com
  themoscowtimes.com
  

• Niger Coup Standoff Intensifies: The political crisis in Niger has become a regional flashpoint, pitting West African nations against a defiant military junta. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) on Aug. 10 activated a “standby force” for possible intervention to reverse Niger’s coup, after the junta ignored a deadline to restore ousted President Mohamed Bazoum. ECOWAS leaders, meeting in Abuja, said they still seek a peaceful solution but stressed that “all options are on the table, including the use of force as a last resort”. The bloc imposed tough sanctions on Niger and has struggled to find a diplomatic breakthrough since generals seized power on July 26. The stakes rose as fellow juntas in Mali and Burkina Faso – who have aligned themselves with Niger’s putschists – warned they would treat an ECOWAS attack on Niger as a “declaration of war”. Both countries, suspended from ECOWAS, have sent military advisors (and reportedly Wagner Group mercenaries) to Niger in solidarity. This raises the specter of a broader Sahel conflict pitching ECOWAS troops (likely led by Nigeria and Senegal) against a three-nation military alliance. France and the US, with troops based in Niger for counterterrorism, back ECOWAS but are cautious about sparking violence. As of this week, ECOWAS continues to pursue mediation – a delegation finally met Bazoum and coup leaders in Niamey – even as its standby force stands by. The Nigerien junta, entrenched in Niamey and rallying populist anti-French support, has thus far refused to relent, creating a volatile impasse at the heart of West Africa.
  reuters.com

• Massive Chinese Incursion Near Taiwan: Beijing dramatically escalated military pressure on Taiwan this week in one of the largest shows of force this year. Over a 24-hour span on Aug. 8, Taiwan’s defense ministry tracked 63 Chinese military aircraft and vessels operating around the island. Notably, 38 PLA fighters, bombers and drones crossed the Taiwan Strait’s median line – intruding into Taiwan’s air defense identification zones (ADIZ) to the north, southwest, and even east of the island. Taiwan scrambled jets, deployed naval patrols, and activated its air defense missile systems in response. The incursions, which Taipei called a clear provocation, marked a sharp uptick in Beijing’s “grey zone” warfare aimed at wearing down Taiwan. They coincided with high-profile events: former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson was visiting Taipei, and Britain’s HMS Prince of Wales carrier was approaching Japan, while Chinese and Russian navies carried out joint drills in waters north and south of Japan. Analysts see China sending multiple signals – protesting Western engagement with Taiwan and flaunting its ability to encircle the island militarily. Taiwan’s government condemned China as the “true troublemaker” in the Indo-Pacific and urged international support. The US State Department called the PLA actions “destabilizing.” The timing also comes as Taiwan prepares for a presidential election in January; Beijing may be ratcheting up pressure to influence voters against candidates deemed “pro-independence.” With Chinese warplanes now crossing the long-respected median line almost daily, the threshold for a potential crisis in the Taiwan Strait is uncomfortably low.
  taipeitimes.com

Terrorism and Conflict

• Pakistan says it killed 50 militants on the Afghan border over four days: The army reported 50 militants killed in Balochistan near Afghanistan, an area that hosts both Islamist militants and separatists. If accurate, this is one of Islamabad’s larger short‑burst operations of 2025 and underscores cross‑border security frictions that could complicate ties with Kabul and disrupt Belt‑and‑Road‑linked projects.
  reuters.com

• Darfur atrocity amid famine: UN condemns RSF attack that killed at least 40 at Abu Shouk camp: The UN denounced an RSF assault on a displacement camp near El‑Fasher that killed 40 and wounded others, as aid access remains severely restricted.  The pattern of RSF attacks around El‑Fasher combined with siege-induced starvation risks further mass‑atrocity episodes and heightens external pressure for accountability and humanitarian corridors.
  apnews.com

• Nigeria intensifies air–ground campaign against armed gangs (“bandits”) in Zamfara: The air force said “scores” of gang members were killed as aircraft and ground units struck a large raiding party near Bukuyum, Zamfara state. Abuja is leaning on airpower to blunt mass abductions, but casualty claims are hard to verify and the risk of civilian harm persists; the insurgency–criminality nexus in the northwest remains a long war.
  reuters.com

• Syria: regime–SDF clashes flare in Aleppo amid stalled integration talks: A Syrian soldier was killed in fighting with the Kurdish‑led SDF, according to state media carried by Reuters; Damascus also signaled it would skip planned Paris meetings with the SDF. Even after the anti‑ISIS campaign and shifts in Syria’s political center, regime‑SDF friction can still escalate locally and draw in outside actors (notably Türkiye), complicating stabilization.
  reuters.com

• DRC: U.S. sanctions target conflict‑mineral financing network tied to PARECO and traders. New this week (Aug 12): Washington sanctioned PARECO and several firms alleged to profit from illicit coltan trading around Rubaya; assets and transactions under U.S. jurisdiction are to be blocked. Assessment: Sanctions strike at the revenue streams that fuel eastern Congo’s wars; if enforced tightly with regional partners, they could constrain armed groups and raise due‑diligence risk for downstream buyers.
  apnews.com

• Lebanon: Hezbollah warns of “no life” if government moves to disarm the group. In a televised speech, deputy leader Naim Qassem threatened mass protests and hinted at unrest if Beirut implements a U.S.-backed plan to place all arms under state control.  Rhetorical escalation raises the risk of internal confrontation even as cross‑border hostilities with Israel persist; domestic polarization may intensify if cabinet advances disarmament steps.
  reuters.com

WMD & Cyberwarfare

• Russia signals imminent test of nuclear‑powered cruise missile: Satellite imagery and maritime/airspace notices indicate Moscow is preparing a Burevestnik (SSC‑X‑9 “Skyfall”) test from Novaya Zemlya—timed as Putin seeks leverage before Alaska talks. Western analysts note the missile’s poor test history and environmental risks from a nuclear ramjet, but the signaling value is high. Assessment: escalatory strategic messaging; limited near‑term force‑planning impact until the system proves reliable. 
  reuters.com

• E3 threaten UN ‘snapback’ over Iran’s program: Britain, France, and Germany warned they will reimpose UN sanctions if Tehran does not re‑engage and restore cooperation with the IAEA by late August. The move hardens Europe’s line after months of stalled inspections and enrichment above JCPOA limits. Assessment: increases pressure on Tehran and narrows diplomatic off‑ramps; watch for Iranian counter‑threats (e.g., NPT brinkmanship). 
  apnews.com

• Tehran agrees to IAEA talks—but with no site access: Iran said a senior IAEA official can visit for consultations only, explicitly ruling out facility access for now. This keeps monitors at arm’s length even as enrichment and centrifuge work continue. Assessment: signaling openness while denying verification; raises the odds Europe pursues snapback and that Israel/US contingency planning intensifies.
  reuters.com

• Global takedown of ‘BlackSuit’ ransomware—rapid rebrand observed: A DHS‑led, multi‑country operation seized BlackSuit’s infrastructure and funds after hundreds of victims; researchers report immediate regrouping under a new brand (“Chaos”) with similar TTPs. Assessment: classic ransomware ecosystem resilience; disruption useful but transient—defenders should expect name‑change, new domains, same playbook. 
  itpro.com