• Wed, September 10, 2025 | 12:00–1:00 PM ET
• International Tech in a Geopolitical Context with Sam Olsen  (Chief Analyst, Sibylline).
• Secure your place now by registering here!
  

Highlighted Works by Mackinder Forum Members

• The Geoeconomic and Geopolitical Rivalry Between the United States and China: Current Trends and Future Prospects
  Stelios Fenekos
  Mackinder Forum (official site; original on LinkedIn)
  September 5, 2025
  mackinderforum.org

• The Implications of the Rise of Small and Middle Powers for U.S.-China Great Power Competition
  Zoltán Fehér
  Examining Perspectives of Small-to-Medium Powers in Emergent Great Power Competition (ed. Philip Baxter, Palgrave Macmillan, 2025)
  August 29, 2025
  link.springer.com

• A Sobering Prophecy About the Rise of China
  Francis P. Sempa
  Modern Age
  September 4, 2025
  modernagejournal.com

• Pathogen as Policy: Defending Against Chinese Biowarfare
  Michael Sobolik
  Hudson Institute
  September 3, 2025
  hudson.org

• How Concerning is this Monumental Meeting Between Leaders of China, Russia, North Korea, and India?
  Gordon G. Chang
  77 WABC Minicasts (radio podcast)
  September 2, 2025
  wabcradio.com

• A chance for peace. Former Hungarian diplomat on behind-the-scenes negotiations and the effectiveness of Trump’s diplomatic track
  Zoltán Fehér
  Slawa TV (Interview)
  August 25, 2025
  slawa.tv

Geoeconomics

• Russia Blasts Sanctions Ahead of China Visit: On the eve of a Beijing trip, Vladimir Putin lambasted Western trade sanctions as his country’s economy teeters on the brink of recession due to war-related trade curbs. Putin told China’s state media that Moscow and Beijing jointly oppose “discriminatory” sanctions in global commerce, underscoring growing Russia-China economic alignment as Russia seeks relief from its post-Ukraine isolation. (Note: Russian statements via state outlets may downplay internal strain – Western analysts point to Russia’s mounting economic woes under sanctions.)
  reuters.com
  
  
• U.S. Slaps 50% Tariffs on India, Causing Backlash: President Donald Trump ignited trade tensions with India by imposing 50% tariffs on over half of India’s $65 billion exports to the U.S., targeting sectors like textiles, gems, jewelry and seafood. Indian industries warn the steep tariffs could wipe out jobs and exports, calling the blow “devastating” as factories shutter and supply chains unravel. (The Guardian notes Trump’s move is seen as protectionist; Indian voices decry it as one-sided and harmful.)
  theguardian.com
  
  
• Eurozone Manufacturing Rebounds as Asia Slows: European factory activity expanded in August for the first time since 2022, as domestic demand offset U.S. tariff impacts. The Eurozone PMI crept above 50 (growth territory), led by gains in Greece and Spain. In contrast, export-reliant Asian economies (Japan, South Korea, Taiwan) saw manufacturing contract under the weight of steep U.S. tariffs and weaker global orders. Analysts note Europe’s “fragile recovery” is driven by internal consumption – “the best remedy against U.S. tariffs may be stronger domestic demand,” one economist said – whereas Asia’s industries struggle to adapt to elevated trade barriers.
  reuters.com

Military Developments

• UK-Norway Arctic Warship Deal Bolsters NATO: The UK and Norway agreed on a £10 billion deal for five British-built Type-26 frigates for Norway – the largest warship export ever for Britain. The advanced anti-submarine frigates will join British vessels in a joint 13-ship fleet guarding NATO’s northern flank, hunting Russian submarines in the High North. Officials say this strategic partnership (hailed by Jerusalem Post as a boost to NATO’s Arctic defenses) will “defend our sovereignty” (Norway PM Stoere) amid heightened Russian naval activity. (While an Israeli outlet framed it squarely as countering Russia, Norwegian and British sources emphasize also the industrial benefits – reflecting a mix of security and economic motives.)
  reuters.com
  jpost.com
  
  
• Russia’s Zapad-2025 Drill Scaled Down Amid Ukraine War: Russia and Belarus commenced their biennial Zapad-2025 military exercise, but with a much smaller Russian contingent (~2,000 troops) than in past years. With Moscow’s forces tied up in Ukraine, Zapad is markedly limited – “the most constrained ever,” analysts note. Belarus’ leader Lukashenka is downplaying the drills to avoid provoking NATO, reflecting his genuine fear of escalation. Observers predict Russia may emphasize nuclear-capable systems in lieu of troop maneuvers to signal strength. (NATO officials are watching closely but, aware of Russia’s constraints, assess the exercise as more rhetoric than real risk this year.)
  chathamhouse.org
  
  
• Ukrainian Drones Strike Deep in Russia: Ukraine launched one of its most audacious drone attacks on Russian soil, striking an airbase in Pskov (600 km from Ukraine) and reportedly damaging or destroying four Il-76 military transport planes. Videos showed explosions and two aircraft ablaze. Kyiv hinted at responsibility as it expands long-range drone capability. Russia had to scramble air defenses across multiple regions due to widespread UAV incursions. (The strike – which Western outlets call a bold show of Ukraine’s reach – unsettled Moscow (officials admitted “terrorist drones” hit Pskov), while Ukrainian sources celebrated it as proof that no Russian base is safe as the war’s geography shifts into Russia’s skies.)
  reuters.com
  
  
• Japan Seeks Record Defense Budget to Counter Threats: The Japanese government requested an unprecedented ¥8.8 trillion ($60 billion) defense budget for FY2026, its largest ever. The draft budget emphasizes long-range missiles, drone fleets and missile defense to address rising threats from China and North Korea. Tokyo aims to nearly double defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2027, in line with NATO standards. The record budget – which still requires parliamentary approval – is part of Japan’s historic military buildup after decades of post-WWII restraint. (U.S. officials have called Japan’s previous spending “manifestly inadequate”, so this boost is welcomed in Washington, whereas Chinese state media characterizes Japan’s rearmament as a potential threat to regional stability.)
  nknews.org
  thedefensepost.com
  asahi.com
  
  

Political and Diplomatic Developments

• U.S.-Russia Summit Yields Little Progress on Ukraine: President Trump hosted Russia’s Vladimir Putin in Alaska in mid-August, a high-profile summit aimed at brokering peace in Ukraine. Trump had set a two-week timeline for Putin to show progress toward a deal. However, by this week fighting still rages and no breakthrough emerged. Russian forces even escalated bombing of Kyiv days after the talks, undercutting optimism. The White House struck an upbeat tone about dialogue, but many Western observers were skeptical Putin would concede anything substantive. Indeed, Ukraine’s government insists any U.S.-Russia deal cannot be made “over our heads,” and so far there’s no indication Moscow altered its war aims despite the summit.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Xi’s G20 No-Show Strains China-India Ties: Chinese President Xi Jinping is skipping the G20 summit in New Delhi, a decision widely seen in India as a snub amid frosty relations. Beijing will send Premier Li Qiang instead. Analysts say Xi’s absence reflects lingering border tensions – the two nations remain at an impasse over their Himalayan standoff since 2020. New Delhi privately expressed disappointment, and even a ruling-party official accused Beijing of “petulance” at India’s rise. Chinese officials downplay the incident (claiming ties “remain stable”), but Xi’s no-show – a first for China at G20 – underscores the deep distrust. It likely foreclosed a Xi–Modi meeting, dashing hopes for any thaw as the G20 convenes amid geopolitical rifts.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Iran and China Pledge ‘No Limits’ Partnership: Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian met China’s Xi Jinping in Tianjin on Sept 2, with both leaders vowing to deepen their strategic partnership and fully implement a 25-year cooperation pact. They presented a united front against U.S. “unilateralism,” as Xi affirmed China’s support for Iran’s “legitimate right” to peaceful nuclear technology and opposition to Western sanctions. Pezeshkian, conveying Ayatollah Khamenei’s greetings, said Iran is a “determined ally” of China and called for a world order not based on “force and coercion”. This Tehran–Beijing display (on the SCO summit sidelines) highlights an emerging anti-Western axis. U.S. officials note both countries are sanctioned by Washington and are moving closer economically and militarily – a relationship Western observers caution could undermine efforts to isolate Iran’s hardliners.
  iranintl.com
  
  
• Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Deal Elusive: Armenia and Azerbaijan have reportedly finalized the text of a peace agreement, yet Baku refuses to sign until Yerevan renounces any claims to Azerbaijani territory (namely Nagorno-Karabakh). Tensions remain high: last year Azerbaijan’s blockade and military offensive in Karabakh drove out virtually the entire ethnic Armenian population, fueling mutual mistrust. U.S. and EU diplomats are pushing both sides to formalize peace after decades of conflict. However, with Azerbaijan insisting on further Armenian concessions and Armenian society wary of a “humiliating” peace, the timeline for a treaty is uncertain. (Notably, the Trump administration facilitated Armenia-Azerbaijan talks in Washington last month, resulting in a joint statement but no final deal – underscoring that a lasting peace will require significant political will from both Caucasus rivals.)
  crisisgroup.org
  newsweek.com

Geostrategic Flashpoints

• Ukraine: Grinding War, Competing Narratives: Heavy fighting rages along nearly the entire Ukraine front as Russia’s military claims to have the “strategic initiative”. General Valery Gerasimov boasted that Russian forces are on a “non-stop offensive” and have seized 3,500 km² since March. Ukraine flatly disputes this: a Ukrainian military spokesman said Kyiv’s troops have blunted Russian assaults, even surrounding some Russian units and recapturing a village in the east. Independent verification is difficult, but casualties on both sides are high. Meanwhile, a recent U.S.-brokered ceasefire effort (the Alaska summit) hasn’t altered battlefield realities. Russia stepped up missile strikes on Ukrainian cities, killing 25 in Kyiv last week, as Trump’s hope for a quick peace deal remains unrealized. (State media in Moscow are amplifying Gerasimov’s claims of success, likely to project strength, while Western outlets emphasize Ukraine’s incremental gains and Russia’s failure to score a decisive breakthrough.)
  reuters.com
  
• Taiwan Strait Tensions and Competing Shows of Force: Beijing staged a massive military parade on Sept 3 to mark WWII’s end – with Xi Jinping flanked by Russia’s Putin and North Korea’s Kim in Tiananmen Square. Xi warned the world faces a choice of “peace or war” and vowed China “stands on the right side of history”. The spectacle, shunned by Western leaders, showcased China’s latest missiles and drones in an unprecedented tri-axis display. Taiwan’s government, meanwhile, struck a defiant tone: President Lai Ching-te said on Sept 2 that “aggression will inevitably fail,” citing how Taiwan repelled Chinese attacks in 1958. Taipei urged unity against Beijing’s military pressure – over 150 PLA warplanes buzzed Taiwan’s airspace in recent drills, a record number that Taipei denounced as provocative. Chinese officials insist the island’s fate is an internal matter, but U.S. and Japanese observers see Xi’s high-profile parade (and Taiwan encirclement exercises) as signaling a hard line. Conversely, Taiwan is rallying international support, warning that today’s aggressive posturing by Beijing echoes historical aggressors that were ultimately defeated..
  reuters.com
  
• North Korea’s Overtures to Russia Alarm West: In Beijing, Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin held sideline talks (around China’s parade) where Putin thanked North Korean “volunteers” for their help in Ukraine and Kim offered to “do everything he can” to support Russia’s war effort. U.S. officials are concerned this foreshadows an arms deal – Washington says Pyongyang may supply Russia with artillery shells and missiles depleted by 18 months of war. Such a transfer would violate UN sanctions. The White House warned North Korea that it would “pay a price” for providing munitions to Russia. Moscow and Pyongyang both benefit from defying the West: Russia gets ammo for its war, and North Korea may seek Russian technology or food aid in return. The budding Moscow–Pyongyang “friendship” (sealed with handshakes in front of Xi) marks a further geopolitical polarisation – a public alignment of two nuclear-armed states united by anti-U.S. sentiment.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Eastern Mediterranean Powder Keg and Diplomatic Jockeying: One year after a devastating war in Gaza, tensions remain high between Israel and regional actors. This week, Turkey and Egypt co-hosted talks aiming to restart Israel-Palestine negotiations, but Israel’s hardline government rebuffed outside “dictates”, insisting Palestinian issues be resolved on its terms. In Lebanon, the Iran-backed Hezbollah conducted a large military drill in a show of force, even as UN peacekeepers warned of risks of miscalculation on the Israel-Lebanon border. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia signaled it cannot normalize with Israel absent a Palestinian state – Riyadh’s UN envoy reiterated that stance amid U.S.-brokered outreach. Collectively, these signals underscore that despite last year’s war formally ending, the Middle East’s flashpoints are still smoldering. Major players are maneuvering diplomatically (and in Hezbollah’s case, militarily) to shape the post-Gaza landscape, leaving the region on edge.
  caliber.az

Terrorism and Conflict

• Deadly Blasts Rock Pakistan’s Border Regions: Pakistan suffered a wave of militant attacks this week. In Quetta (Balochistan), a suspected suicide bombing at a political rally killed at least 11 people and wounded 30. The blast targeted a gathering of the Balochistan National Party (BNP) as attendees were departing. On the same day, a separate bomb attack near Pakistan’s Iran border killed five. And in the northwest (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa), Taliban-aligned rebels assaulted a paramilitary base, killing six soldiers. No group immediately claimed the Quetta bombing, but Baloch separatist insurgents are active in the area and have attacked political events before. Pakistan’s officials call this one of the deadliest 24 hours in recent months. The attacks underscore the volatile mix of separatist and jihadist violence afflicting Pakistan’s peripheries, even as the government presses the Afghan Taliban to rein in cross-border TTP militants.
  aljazeera.com
  (Al Jazeera is a global news network financed by the Qatari state.)
  
  
• Al-Shabab Strikes at U.S. Forces in Somalia: The Al-Qaeda-linked al-Shabab insurgency in Somalia launched a mortar attack on Sept 4 against the Kismayo airport base, which hosts U.S. and Somali troops. U.S. Africa Command confirmed that several indirect-fire rounds landed near the base, fortunately causing no casualties or damage. AFRICOM noted al-Shabab often exaggerates its claims, after the group boasted of inflicting losses. The attack came as Somali government forces – backed by U.S. advisors and airstrikes – intensify an offensive against al-Shabab in the south. Analysts say the militants aimed to show they can still hit foreign and government targets despite recent battlefield setbacks. The incident highlights that al-Shabab remains a potent threat, even as Somalia’s army, with international support, pushes to corner the group’s fighters in rural strongholds.
  africom.mil

WMD & Cyber Warfare

• N. Korea and Russia in Possible Arms Deal: Western intelligence is on alert after Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin’s recent interactions, amid signs of a potential North Korea–Russia weapons deal. Kim’s offer to help Russia “in every possible way” in Ukraine and Putin’s thanks to North Korean fighters suggest Pyongyang may supply artillery shells or rockets to Moscow. U.S. officials say arms shipments (like aging Soviet-caliber munitions) could significantly aid Russia’s war effort, as its stockpiles run low. Washington warned this would violate UN sanctions on North Korea’s weapons exports. North Korean media, in a rare move, praised Russia’s “sacred struggle” against Western aggression. Analysts note Kim likely seeks Russian assistance in return – possibly advanced weapon technology or diplomatic backing. This nascent Moscow-Pyongyang military cooperation marks a new phase of WMD-related geopolitics, drawing condemnation from NATO and Japan.
  reuters.com
  
  
• Iran, Russia, China Resist Renewal of UN Sanctions: In a joint diplomatic move, Iran, Russia, and China sent a letter to the UN opposing European efforts to re-impose UN sanctions on Iran’s nuclear program. They argue that since the U.S. quit the 2015 JCPOA deal, Washington and its allies have no authority to invoke “snapback” sanctions. China’s Xi and Iran’s President Pezeshkian both publicly affirmed Iran’s right to nuclear energy and criticized what they call Western double standards. Russia echoed that sentiment, with FM Lavrov slamming any new UN measures as illegitimate. This coordinated stance by three Security Council members will complicate U.S.-EU plans to tighten restrictions on Iran as a 2015 deal provision expiry looms. The divergent views underscore the geopolitical divide: Western powers fear Iran’s nuclear latency and missile work, whereas Beijing and Moscow – at odds with Washington – are shielding Tehran on the world stage, trading support for influence and energy interests.
  iranintl.com
  
  
• Tech Cold War: iPhone Ban Heightens U.S.-China Distrust: China expanded curbs on the use of Apple iPhones by government officials, telling some agencies to bar Apple devices at work (a move first reported Sept 1). The White House voiced “concern”, calling Beijing’s apparent ban “aggressive and inappropriate retaliation” for U.S. tech export controls. China’s move – officially unacknowledged but widely reported – comes after the U.S. tightened curbs on China’s access to advanced semiconductors. Apple’s stock slid on the news, as China is its 3rd-largest market. This tit-for-tat underscores the deepening U.S.-China tech rift: Washington says its chip sanctions protect national security (preventing PLA military AI advances), while China frames them as containment. Beijing’s unofficial iPhone restriction, likely over cybersecurity fears, demonstrates that even consumer tech is now politicized. Analysts warn multinational firms are caught in the middle, forced to navigate an environment where digital ecosystems are fracturing along geopolitical lines.
  reuters.com