Weekly Geopolitical Bulletin (Aug 16–22, 2025)

Geoeconomics

• Europe’s Energy vs Ukraine Aid: European powers continue to face scrutiny for financing both sides of the Ukraine war. A new analysis found EU countries spent €21.9 billion (≈$23 billion) on Russian fossil fuels in 2024 – about 39% more than the €18.7 billion ($19.6 billion) they provided in financial aid to Ukraine. Critics warn that these energy purchases effectively fund Moscow’s war chest even as Europe vows to support Kyiv, with roughly a quarter of Russia’s oil and gas revenue still coming from European buyers. (Note: Right-leaning outlets have amplified this “hypocrisy,” but the data comes from a respected research group (CREA) and has been reported in mainstream sources.)
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• China Dominates Investment in Russia’s Far East: Amid deepening Sino-Russian ties, over 90% of all foreign investment in Russia’s Far East now originates from China. A Russian business forum in Kazan on Aug 18 highlighted Beijing’s economic influence: Chinese firms are the top investors in Far Eastern regions and are heavily involved in projects like a new “Deng Xiaoping” logistics center. This underscores Moscow’s growing reliance on Chinese capital as western investors shun Russia. (Chinese and Russian sources celebrate this partnership, but others note the imbalance – fueling concerns that Russia is becoming the junior partner economically.)
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• U.S.–China Trade Truce Holding (For Now): The U.S. and China have maintained a fragile tariff truce, and President Trump’s Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said this week the deal is “working pretty well”. Washington agreed not to hike tariffs further (keeping U.S. duties at 30% instead of a threatened 145%), and in return Beijing resumed exports of certain rare earth materials critical to U.S. industry. Bessent’s remarks signal a thaw in trade tensions ahead of the truce’s November expiration. However, he also hinted that high-level talks – possibly even a Trump–Xi meeting – are anticipated before then. (This conciliatory tone on trade, aired on Fox News, suggests the Trump administration sees the pause as beneficial. Still, skepticism remains given the unpredictable history of the trade war.)
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Military Developments

• Australia & Philippines’ Largest Joint Drill: In a show of Indo-Pacific unity, Australia launched its largest-ever military exercise with the Philippines on Aug 15, involving 3,600+ troops in live-fire drills and an amphibious beach assault in Palawan – directly facing the South China Sea. Dubbed Exercise “Alon” 2025 (“Wave”), the drills feature Australian warships, fighter jets and special forces, with observers from the US, Japan, South Korea and others joining in. Canberra and Manila cast the exercise as a message that regional allies will “maintain a region where state sovereignty is protected… free from coercion,” a veiled reference to China’s assertiveness in disputed waters. (Chinese officials have condemned such drills as “provocative” – state media say the West is “ganging up” on China – but the broad participation, even by some ASEAN partners, underlines Beijing’s growing isolation on the South China Sea issue.)
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• U.S.–Saudi Defense Ties Deepen: The U.S. and Saudi Arabia further solidified their military partnership this week. On Aug 21 in Riyadh, officials formally inducted Saudi Arabia into the Pentagon’s State Partnership Program (SPP), pairing the Saudi Armed Forces with the Oklahoma and Indiana National Guards for joint training. This follows President Trump’s May visit to Saudi Arabia, which announced a massive $142 billion U.S. arms sales deal – the largest in American history – to equip Riyadh with advanced weapons from dozens of U.S. defense firms. Saudi defense spending (a whopping 8.1% of GDP, highest in the Middle East) and its Vision 2030 investments in military modernization make it a pivotal U.S. security partner. (While U.S. officials hail the SPP agreement as bolstering “regional stability” and interoperability, critics note Washington’s quiet reversal – after earlier friction under Biden – to a more transactional, arms-focused relationship with the Kingdom under Trump.)
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• Ukraine Strikes in Crimea, Russia Hits Back: In the ongoing war, Ukraine has escalated pressure on Russian forces in occupied Crimea. On Aug 22, Ukraine’s Navy struck a Russian drone base in Sevastopol, reportedly destroying at least five surveillance drones (Iranian-made Mohajer-6 and Russian Forpost models) at the Khersones airfield. Earlier in the month, Kyiv’s agents even claimed to have hit a component of Russia’s prized S-500 air defense system on the peninsula. In response, Moscow launched one of the biggest air assaults of the year against Ukraine. In a rare barrage west of Kyiv, Russia fired 574 drones and 40 missiles on Aug 20–21, striking arms depots and even flattening a U.S.-owned electronics factory in Mukachevo, near NATO’s doorstep. At least one person was killed and dozens injured in that wave. The Kremlin’s massive strike – coming just days after Trump and Putin’s peace summit – seemed to “show nothing has changed,” in President Zelenskyy’s words. (Independent observers note that while Ukraine is gradually chipping away at Russia’s military assets – especially in Crimea – Russia’s ability to mount large-scale missile/drone attacks remains potent. Both sides are maximizing leverage even amid talk of ceasefire, a dynamic covered with differing emphases: Western outlets focus on Russian attacks hitting civilian infrastructure, whereas Russian state media highlights Ukrainian “terror attacks” on Crimea.)
  abc.net.au
  kyivindependent.com
  
  
• Netanyahu Greenlights Gaza City Offensive: In the Middle East, Israel’s government approved a plan to seize and occupy Gaza City, expanding its military campaign against Hamas despite international warnings. Defense Minister Yoav Gallant this week authorized operational plan “Gideon’s Chariots II” to storm Gaza City, and on Aug 20 the IDF said it began the “first stages” of the assault, calling up 50,000–60,000 reservists for the effort. Prime Minister Netanyahu has made clear his intent to “take control of all of Gaza”, aiming to eradicate Hamas – though he says Israel would not permanently govern the Strip, instead hoping to hand it to a friendly Arab authority. Israeli forces are already fighting on Gaza City’s outskirts, and plans call for evacuating up to 1 million Palestinian civilians from combat zones. The push has exposed rifts: some Israeli generals reportedly oppose a long-term occupation, warning it could become a quagmire “black hole” insurgency. (Israeli media outlets like Channel 12 frame the operation as “limited” and necessary for security, while humanitarian organizations and the UN strongly condemn it – the UN human rights chief urged an immediate halt, citing “unbearable suffering” and the risk of mass civilian death.)
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• India Tests Missile That Can Reach China: Agence France-Presse reports that on Aug 20, India successfully test-fired its Agni-5 ballistic missile, a nuclear-capable rocket with an estimated 5,000 km range – enough to strike deep into Chinese territory. Launched from Odisha state, the intermediate-range missile trial “validated all operational and technical parameters,” according to India’s defense ministry. The Agni-5 strengthens India’s strategic deterrent against both China and its longtime rival Pakistan. (Indian analysts celebrate the successful test as a milestone in indigenous defense, aligning with PM Modi’s drive to bolster security amid a tense China border standoff since 2020. However, Pakistan promptly criticized the test as destabilizing – a reminder that each South Asian arms advance can feed regional nuclear jitters. Notably, this comes as U.S.–India relations are strained by Trump’s demands that India halt Russian oil imports, a point Indian media highlight to contextualize Delhi’s strategic autonomy in its defense policy.)
  theguardian.com
  
  

Political and Diplomatic Developments

• Europe Rallies Around Zelensky (and Trump) in Washington: In a dramatic diplomatic show of support, leaders of Britain, France, Italy, Finland and the EU descended on Washington, DC, alongside Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Aug 18. They joined President Zelenskyy’s White House talks following President Trump’s Alaska summit with Putin, aiming to present a united front and ensure Kyiv’s interests aren’t sidelined in nascent peace efforts. UK PM Keir Starmer, France’s Emmanuel Macron, Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, NATO’s new Secretary-General Mark Rutte and others vowed continued military aid “for as long as it takes” – even as critics pointed out Europe had sent $23 billion to Russia for energy last year versus $19.6 billion to Ukraine in aid. During the visit, European officials backed Zelenskyy’s stance that any peace deal must start from current battle lines and cannot trade away Ukrainian territory. (This extraordinary gathering – essentially Team Zelenskyy visiting Trump – was covered in detail by Al Jazeera and European outlets. Notably, Breitbart and some right-wing commentators seized on the energy-versus-aid figures to accuse Europe of hypocrisy, though mainstream sources have verified those numbers in context of 2024.)
  breitbart.com
  aljazeera.com
  (Al Jazeera is a global news network financed by the Qatari state).
  
  
• Trump-Putin Summit Yields Talk of ‘Security Guarantees’: Fallout from the Aug 16 Trump–Putin summit in Alaska dominated diplomatic chatter. U.S. envoy Steven Witkoff revealed that Putin agreed in principle to let the U.S. and allies offer Ukraine “Article 5-like” security guarantees as part of a future peace deal – effectively allowing a NATO-style pledge without formal NATO membership. This concession stunned some observers (Putin had long rejected Western troops or guarantees in Ukraine). However, the summit did not produce a ceasefire; Trump dropped his immediate ceasefire demand after talks faltered. Instead, reports emerged that Trump floated a controversial land-swap peace plan – asking Kyiv to cede occupied territories to Russia in exchange for peace. European leaders firmly opposed any land-for-peace formula, calling it a reward for aggression. (Reactions split: Russian officials welcomed Trump’s less confrontational approach, while Ukraine and Eastern European governments privately expressed alarm, per Le Monde and RFE/RL. The EU’s public stance has been to stand by Zelenskyy’s refusal to sacrifice territory – a point they emphasized during the DC talks.)
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• Bolivia’s Political Sea Change: Bolivia’s Aug. 17 general election saw voters overwhelmingly reject the left-wing MAS party after nearly 20 years in power. Centrist candidate Rodrigo Paz led with about 32% of the vote versus just 3% for the MAS contender, forcing an October runoff and signaling a broader rightward shift in Latin American politics
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• U.S. Sanctions on ICC Officials Stir Backlash: In a move denounced as a “flagrant attack” on judicial independence, Washington sanctioned four International Criminal Court officials (two judges – including a French jurist – and two prosecutors) for pursuing war-crimes cases against U.S. or Israeli nationals. The ICC and UN condemned the sanctions, and France voiced “dismay”, while Israel praised the U.S. action (The Guardian – a UK outlet often critical of Trump’s stance and generally supportive of international legal institutions).
  theguardian.com

• Myanmar’s Junta Sets “Sham” Elections: Myanmar’s military government announced it will begin a long-promised general election on Dec. 28, 2025, despite an ongoing civil war and the exclusion of jailed or exiled opposition leaders. Observers – including ASEAN neighbors – have criticized the planned vote as a illegitimate bid to cement the junta’s rule amid raging conflict and a crushed pro-democracy movement
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Geostrategic Flashpoints

• South China Sea Collision Raises Tensions: A bizarre accident between Chinese vessels underscored how “incredibly tense” the South China Sea has become. Video went viral of a Chinese Navy destroyer colliding with a China Coast Guard ship near Scarborough Shoal – apparently as both were maneuvering aggressively to block Philippine boats. The mid-August incident, which Beijing tried to downplay, actually highlights China’s own forces tripping over each other amidst their growing maritime presence. Around the same time, a Chinese fighter jet dangerously intercepted a Philippine patrol plane carrying journalists, and China falsely claimed to have driven off a U.S. destroyer near Scarborough Shoal (the US Navy said it was simply conducting a legal transit). U.S. Senator Todd Young, fresh from a visit to the Philippines’ front-line island of Palawan, warned that the “energy in the region” is extremely high and that only firm deterrence will “listen to” China. (Axios and others note that both the Trump and Biden administrations prioritized the Indo-Pacific, ramping up military cooperation with the Philippines. This has included expanded joint patrols and new U.S. access to Philippine bases – moves Chinese state media condemn as provocations. The collision incident, however, even made some Chinese netizens question if their navy and coast guard are coordinated, an unusual crack in the propaganda narrative.)
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• Scarborough Shoal Standoff – U.S. Warships Respond: After the above collision and reports of Chinese ships harassing a Philippine Coast Guard vessel at Scarborough Shoal, the United States Navy reacted visibly. On Aug 20, the U.S. deployed two guided-missile destroyers to patrol near Scarborough Shoal in a Freedom of Navigation Operation. The U.S. emphasized it was protesting China’s unlawful claims and harassment of Philippine vessels. Beijing angrily denounced the move as an “incursion” and shadowed the U.S. ships, but notably did not escalate further. The Australian government also spoke up, calling China’s actions “dangerous and unprofessional” and urging respect for international law. (This flashpoint – Scarborough is a reef both China and the Philippines claim – is a barometer of U.S. commitment to allies under Trump. The quick dispatch of U.S. warships reassured Manila and drew bipartisan approval in Washington. Chinese outlets like Global Times, however, warned that “foreign meddling” could lead to miscalculation at sea. The incident has only hardened Philippine public opinion in favor of the U.S. alliance.)
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• India–China Border Talks Falter: A 19th round of corps commander-level talks between India and China ended with no breakthrough on the Ladakh border dispute, prolonging a stand-off that began in 2020. This week, Indian officials reported that Chinese negotiators refused to pull back from several friction points along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) where troops remain dangerously close. China instead insisted India dismantle new infrastructure (roads, airstrips) on the Indian side – a demand Delhi rejected. The two sides issued a bland statement about continuing dialogue, but local commanders remain on high alert. In the background, India’s test of the Agni-5 missile capable of reaching Beijing (see Military section) and its deepening Quad ties are raising Chinese suspicions. (State-controlled media in Beijing downplayed the lack of progress, asserting the LAC situation is “generally stable.” Indian media, however, featured experts calling China’s stance “intransigent” and urging the government to stay firm. With winter approaching in the Himalayas, the window for de-escalation is closing; the flashpoint endures, even as the world’s two most populous countries cautiously resume some high-level contacts.)
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Terrorism and Conflict

• Israel–Gaza War: Egypt’s “Red Line” on Displacement:
  Image: Egyptian FM Badr Abdelatty (right) speaks at Rafah border crossing, Aug 18, flanked by Palestinian PM Mohammad Shtayyeh (Times of Israel/AFP). Egypt issued a stark warning over the humanitarian fallout of the Gaza war. Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said any mass expulsion of Gazans is a “red line” for Cairo that would amount to “liquidation of the Palestinian cause”. In a CNN interview aired Aug 18, Abdelatty insisted Egypt will not accept or allow the forced transfer of Gaza’s residents to Sinai or elsewhere. “Those people are attached to their homeland… Those who leave Gaza will never be allowed back – that would be the end of the Palestinian cause,” he said, underscoring that displacement would only fuel radicalization. The Egyptian minister also criticized Israel for blocking humanitarian aid at Rafah and for “lack of political will” to reach a ceasefire. (This strong public stance – amplified by outlets like Times of Israel – reflects Egypt’s fear of a refugee influx and its support for a future Palestinian state. Israeli officials (privately) and some U.S. voices have floated relocating Gaza’s civilians, but Egypt’s firm rejection, echoed by Jordan, makes that politically untenable. Notably, even the Trump administration, which initially mused about such ideas, has since distanced itself from them amidst the outcry.)
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• Sudan’s Civil War: “Appalled” Mediators Urge Action: The brutal war between Sudan’s rival generals grinds on into its 17th month, and the humanitarian crisis has reached shocking levels. A U.S.-led mediation group (including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE) said on Aug 20 it is “appalled” by the continuously deteriorating situation and implored the warring Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) to halt fighting. Over 24 million Sudanese now face severe hunger, with parts of Darfur and Kordofan sliding into famine. The ALPS mediators (Aligned for Lifesaving and Peace in Sudan) demanded that humanitarian aid be allowed unfettered access, noting that both sides have repeatedly looted or blocked relief supplies. While peace talks remain stalled, the RSF this week announced a unilateral “humanitarian ceasefire” in parts of Khartoum – but fighting still rages in Omdurman and in Darfur. (Coverage: Al Jazeera and regional outlets highlight that Sudan is effectively split in two, with the army controlling the center/north and RSF much of the west (Darfur). The U.S., criticized for being too preoccupied elsewhere, is now re-engaging – but cynicism is high as similar appeals have done little. Meanwhile, reports allege the UAE continues to clandestinely arm the RSF, a charge Abu Dhabi denies. With atrocities mounting (some label it “genocidal” in West Darfur), Sudan’s war risks becoming Africa’s next protracted tragedy with insufficient global attention.)
  aljazeera.com
  (Al Jazeera is a global news network financed by the Qatari state).
  
  
• Colombia Truck Bombing Hits Air Base: Colombia was jarred by its worst terrorist attack in years when a truck bomb exploded outside a military base in Cali on Aug 21, killing at least 5 people and injuring 36. The bombing, near the Marco Fidel Suárez Air Force School, shattered windows across a busy street and damaged homes and a school. Authorities have not formally blamed a group yet, but the local governor called it a “terrorist attack” and noted it echoes tactics of dissident rebel factions. Indeed, “Central General Staff” – a faction of FARC guerrillas that rejected the 2016 peace accord – has been active around Cali and claimed a wave of bombings there in June that killed 7. Cali’s mayor swiftly banned heavy trucks from entering the city as a security measure. The attack comes as President Gustavo Petro’s government is in delicate talks with the ELN rebel group and trying (so far unsuccessfully) to bring the FARC dissidents back to negotiations. (Colombian media uniformly condemned the bombing; even Petro’s leftist allies called it an unacceptable act of violence undermining “Total Peace” efforts. The incident lays bare the challenges to Colombia’s peace process – while one faction (ELN) talks, another (FARC offshoot) escalates attacks, perhaps to gain leverage. Internationally, the UAE, U.S. and others issued routine condemnations. Notably, Russia’s Foreign Ministry also commented – using the incident to underscore the importance of fighting terrorism “without double standards” – a subtle jab amid East-West differences on definitions of terrorism.)
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• Nigeria Mosque Attack by Boko Haram Offshoot: In Nigeria’s far north, Islamist militants struck a place of worship on Aug 21. Gunmen and suicide bombers attacked a mosque in Kaduna State during fajr (dawn) prayers, killing at least 17 worshippers and wounding dozens more (according to local outlets, though official tolls vary). Al-Azhar University in Cairo and others condemned the “heinous terrorist attack” on the mosque. While no group claimed responsibility, suspicion falls on ISIS-West Africa (ISWAP), which has targeted Muslim gatherings it deems heretical. The assault underscores that despite Nigeria’s military gains, insurgents remain capable of brutal hits even outside their northeast stronghold. (Coverage within Nigeria has been somewhat muted – perhaps due to crisis fatigue or censorship – but international Islamic institutions like Al-Azhar reacted strongly. This incident sadly aligns with warnings to the UN Security Council last week that ISWAP and Boko Haram are far from defeated and are even expanding into northwestern Nigeria. It’s a reminder that as global attention shifts, the war on terror in the Sahel and Lake Chad region grinds on.)
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WMD & Cyber Warfare

• North Korea’s Nuclear Base Revealed: A U.S. think-tank (CSIS) report exposed a secret North Korean missile base, stoking security fears in East Asia. The Sinpung-dong base, in a mountainous area just 27 km from China’s border, is believed to house 6–9 nuclear-capable ICBMs and mobile launchers. The base had never been declared by Pyongyang and was absent from past denuclearization talks. Analysts say it’s one of 15–20 hidden sites North Korea uses to ensure it can launch missiles even if known launch pads are struck. This revelation comes as Kim Jong Un has openly called for “rapid expansion” of his nuclear arsenal. South Korea and Japan reacted with alarm, and even China – ostensibly an ally – is privately concerned given the base’s proximity to its territory. (North Korean state media did not acknowledge the CSIS findings, but boasted in general about its ICBM capabilities. International experts note the irony that this base near China could complicate Beijing’s strategic calculus, as a U.S.–North Korea nuclear exchange so close to Chinese soil is a nightmare scenario. The timing is also notable: it coincides with increased Russia–North Korea military cooperation, with reports of Pyongyang sending munitions (and even personnel) to help Russia in Ukraine, and Moscow possibly sharing missile technology in return.)
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• Kim Threatens Nuclear Expansion: North Korea vowed to build more nuclear weapons, reacting angrily to U.S.–South Korea military drills. On Aug 19, state media quoted Kim Jong Un as ordering a “rapid expansion” of the DPRK’s nuclear arsenal after observing a navy exercise. He blasted the ongoing Ulchi Freedom Shield joint drills as “an obvious expression of intent to provoke war” and justified accelerating nuclear and missile development in response. North Korea also showcased advances in conventional forces: Kim inspected his newest destroyer (armed potentially with nuclear-tipped cruise missiles) and announced plans for a third such warship by next year. This rhetoric comes amid speculation that Pyongyang may be preparing its 7th nuclear test (its first since 2017) to perfect tactical nukes. (This tough talk was widely covered by Al Jazeera and South Korean media. It underscores the failure of diplomacy – Kim is doubling down on deterrence. The Trump administration responded by highlighting its shoot-down tests of North Korean missiles and hinting at redeploying U.S. nuclear assets to the region, a possibility cheered by hawks in Seoul but condemned by China. Overall, the peninsula has entered a new arms race dynamic, with each side’s exercises and buildups feeding the other’s justification.)
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• Iran Boasts New Missile Capabilities: Iran’s defense minister declared Tehran has developed “missiles with far greater capabilities” than those it used in the recent Iran–Israel conflict, and warned it will use them if Israel strikes Iran again. In an Aug 20 statement (reported by AFP/ToI), Gen. Aziz Nassirzadeh said the 12-day war in June – during which Iran fired over 500 ballistic missiles at Israel – involved older missiles, and Iran now possesses improved models. He did not detail the new features (likely longer range or evading Israeli missile defenses), but this implied threat comes as Israel reportedly considers further action against Iran’s nuclear program. Nassirzadeh’s comments also confirmed that Israel’s June strikes hit Iranian nuclear and missile sites in a sweeping operation. Iran’s vow to retaliate even harder next time is calibrated both for deterrence and domestic pride. (This bellicose messaging was carried in The Times of Israel, among others. It reveals how the brief direct Iran–Israel confrontation has not ended the cycle of escalation. Israeli officials remain tight-lipped on Iran’s claims, but Western analysts note Iran’s missile/drone arsenal is indeed growing more sophisticated – often evading sanctions through indigenous production. The prospect of another round of Iran–Israel hostilities looms, with Iran publicly flexing and Israel quietly preparing its multi-layered air defenses.)
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• FBI Warns of Russian Critical Infrastructure Hack: U.S. cybersecurity officials sounded an alarm over Russian state-backed hackers infiltrating U.S. critical infrastructure networks. An FBI advisory on Aug 20 revealed that hackers tied to Russia’s FSB (Center 16) have exploited a 7-year-old vulnerability in Cisco networking software to penetrate “thousands” of routers and other devices across U.S. power, telecom, and manufacturing sectors. Once in, the intruders quietly exfiltrated configuration data and implanted backdoors, potentially for future disruptive attacks. Cisco’s threat intelligence team confirmed the campaign, noting it targeted unpatched, end-of-life Cisco IOS devices and has been ongoing for at least a year. The hackers appear focused on access and reconnaissance, particularly of industrial control systems (like SCADA systems in energy grids). Industries in North America, Europe, and Asia have been affected, chosen based on Russian strategic interests. (This development, reported by Reuters, highlights a more insidious side of cyber warfare: long-term infiltration for potential sabotage. U.S. officials and cybersecurity experts are debating whether to reveal which facilities were compromised, as that could panic the public. Russia’s embassy issued a routine denial, claiming Moscow “never engages in cyber-espionage” – a statement met with eye-rolls in Western capitals. The bottom line: Russia may be pre-positioning for cyber attacks on infrastructure, a capability that could be used as leverage or retaliation in a crisis, blurring the line between cyber espionage and cyber warfare.)
  reuters.com