The following except is taken from Michaela Dodge's "Russian Escalation Threats in Its War Against Ukraine" which was originally published as the October 2025 National Institute For Public Policy Occasional Paper
“The Soviet Union had periodically rescued us from ourselves by some act of singular brutality to remind us what they were really like and that we couldn’t let our guard down.”1
Russia’s February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine has been fought under the shadow of Moscow’s nuclear arsenal and coercive threats. In fact, Russia has been making nuclear threats against the West for decades as part of an effort to narrow the West’s decision-making space and counter the economic and military asymmetry.2 While Russia’s threats have delayed and limited the West’s help for Ukraine,3 Russia’s “red lines” appear to be crossable and ever changing. This does not mean that such red lines are non-existent, or that they can be disregarded. As Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues, Russia, buttressed by Chinese, Iranian, and North Korean resources, may at first appear in a better position than ever to force its will on the Ukrainians. Experience to date, however, shows that the West can and should be more aggressive in helping Ukraine win as the risks of Russian escalation are overblown.
1 “Brent Scowcroft Oral History Part I,” Transcript, November 1999,
https://millercenter.org/the-presidency/presidential-oral-histories/brent-scowcroft-oral-history-part-i.
2 For examples of these threats, see the Appendix in Michaela Dodge, “What Do Russia’s Nuclear Threats Tell Us About Arms Control
Prospects?,” Occasional Paper, Vol. 4, No. 1 (Fairfax, VA: National Institute Press, January 2024), pp. 41-70,
https://nipp.org/information_series/michaela-dodge-what-do-russias-nuclear-threats-tell-us-about-arms-control-prospects-no-564-october-2-2023/.
3 Frederick W. Kagan and Riley Bailey, “How Delays in Western Aid Gave Russia the Initiative: From the Ukrainian Counteroffensive to Kharkiv,” Institute for the Study of War, May 22, 2024,
https://www.aei.org/articles/how-delays-in-western-aid-gave-russia-the-initiative-from-the-ukrainian-counteroffensive-to-kharkiv/.